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Knicks vs. Lakers prop picks March 6: Bet on LeBron James, Austin Reaves in L.A.

Fresh off his 50,000-point achievement, LeBron James is at the centre of my prop picks for New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers.

The pregame narrative: LeBron has value on his 3s prop, while Knicks wing Josh Hart looks like a value play as a rebounder. I’m also buying low on Austin Reaves in his return from injury.

Check out my Knicks vs. Lakers prop picks for March 6.

Knicks vs. Lakers prop picks

Best Bet: LeBron over 2.5 threes (-118)

Luka Doncic shoots a ton of 3s, so you might think his addition to the Lakers would cut down on LeBron’s opportunities beyond the arc.

But that hasn’t been the case, at least through their first three and a half weeks together.

Doncic made his Laker debut on Feb. 10. Check out LeBron’s 3-point percentage and volume before and since then:

Pre-Feb. 10 (46 games): 39.1 3PT%, 2.2 makes, 5.6 attempts

Since Feb. 10 (10 games): 40.5 3PT%, 3.0 makes, 7.4 attempts

All season long, LeBron has been a plus shooter from long range. But he’s getting more looks — and better ones — now that he’s paired with an offensive assassin like Doncic.

Tonight should be a nice opportunity for both LeBron and Doncic to thrive beyond the arc.

The Knicks allow the league’s highest opponent 3PT% (37.5), and LeBron went 3-for-8 from deep when he faced them on Feb. 1.

Key stat: LeBron has three-plus 3s in eight of his past 13 games.

Quick pick

Reaves over 24.5 points/assists (-108): Reaves is just returning from a two-game injury absence, so this is likely the only time you can get him at a line this low.

Given that the Lakers are rolling right now, riding a seven-game win streak, there’s no sense rushing him back. That gives me hope that Reaves’ calf strain truly is a minor one.

When he faced the Knicks last month, Reaves put up 27 points and six assists.

On the season, Reaves is averaging 25.1 points/assists.

The Doncic effect has spilled over to Reaves, providing the shooting guard with a bounty of wide-open looks.

Since Doncic’s Laker debut, Reaves is averaging 4.4 attempted 3s per game that are wide open, which NBA.com denotes as shots with six-plus feet of separation.

Hart over 8.5 rebounds (-130): Last month, Hart pulled down 13 rebounds against the Anthony Davis-less Lakers. He can accomplish a lot less than that tonight and still cash this plus-money prop.

Hart is only 6-foot-4, but he plays with the heart of a 7-footer. And since Christmas Day, he’s been rebounding like a 7-footer, too.

Over his past 30 games (since Dec. 25), Hart is averaging 11.1 rebounds.

He has 9+ rebounds in 22 of those 30 matchups.

Mitchell Robinson, Precious Achiuwa and OG Anunoby are all questionable to play tonight, which means more of the Knicks’ rebounding production could fall on Hart’s shoulders.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 03/06/2025.

Knicks vs. Lakers prop picks March 6: Bet on LeBron James, Austin Reaves in L.A.

Fresh off his 50,000-point achievement, LeBron James is at the centre of my prop picks for New York Knicks vs. Los Angeles Lakers.

The pregame narrative: LeBron has plus-money value on his 3s prop, while Knicks wing Josh Hart looks like a value play as a rebounder. I’m also buying low on Austin Reaves in his return from injury.

Check out my Knicks vs. Lakers prop picks for March 6.

Knicks vs. Lakers prop picks

Best Bet: LeBron over 2.5 threes (+102)

Embed: #110907

Luka Doncic shoots a ton of 3s, so you might think his addition to the Lakers would cut down on LeBron’s opportunities beyond the arc.

But that hasn’t been the case, at least through their first three and a half weeks together.

Doncic made his Laker debut on Feb. 10. Check out LeBron’s 3-point percentage and volume before and since then:

Pre-Feb. 10 (46 games): 39.1 3PT%, 2.2 makes, 5.6 attempts

Since Feb. 10 (10 games): 40.5 3PT%, 3.0 makes, 7.4 attempts

All season long, LeBron has been a plus shooter from long range. But he’s getting more looks — and better ones — now that he’s paired with an offensive assassin like Doncic.

Tonight should be a nice opportunity for both LeBron and Doncic to thrive beyond the arc.

The Knicks allow the league’s highest opponent 3PT% (37.5), and LeBron went 3-for-8 from deep when he faced them on Feb. 1.

Key stat: LeBron has three-plus 3s in eight of his past 13 games.

Quick pick

Reaves over 23.5 points/assists (-120): Reaves is just returning from a two-game injury absence, so this is likely the only time you can get him at a line this low.

Given that the Lakers are rolling right now, riding a seven-game win streak, there’s no sense rushing him back. That gives me hope that Reaves’ calf strain truly is a minor one.

When he faced the Knicks last month, Reaves put up 27 points and six assists.

On the season, Reaves is averaging 25.1 points/assists. He’s cashed this bet in 32 of 53 games (60.4%).

The Doncic effect has spilled over to Reaves, providing the shooting guard with a bounty of wide-open looks.

Since Doncic’s Laker debut, Reaves is averaging 4.4 attempted 3s per game that are wide open, which NBA.com denotes as shots with six-plus feet of separation.

Hart over 9.5 rebounds (+114): Last month, Hart pulled down 13 rebounds against the Anthony Davis-less Lakers. He can accomplish a lot less than that tonight and still cash this plus-money prop.

Hart is only 6-foot-4, but he plays with the heart of a 7-footer. And since Christmas Day, he’s been rebounding like a 7-footer, too.

Over his past 30 games (since Dec. 25), Hart is averaging 11.1 rebounds.

He has 10+ rebounds in 20 of those 30 matchups.

Mitchell Robinson, Precious Achiuwa and OG Anunoby are all questionable to play tonight, which means more of the Knicks’ rebounding production could fall on Hart’s shoulders.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 03/06/2025.

Pacers vs. Hawks SGP predictions March 6: Ride with Dyson Daniels, Aaron Nesmith in a +320 parlay

In what should be the highest-scoring game of the night, the Atlanta Hawks host the Indiana Pacers on Thursday.

The pregame narrative: Backing the over on a teased-down total is the first leg in my +320 SGP. I’m expecting a pair of lesser-known starters — Dyson Daniels and Aaron Nesmith — to play a role in the scoring surge.

Check out my Pacers vs. Hawks SGP predictions for March 6.

Pacers vs. Hawks predictions

Parlay: Over 241.5 points | Daniels over 14.5 points | Nesmith over 1.5 threes (+320)

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Over 241.5 points (-186): Atlanta is an overs machine, and that’s especially true at home.

Overs are 37-25 (59.7%) in Hawks games overall this year and 19-10 (65.5%) at State Farm Arena.

Overs are 5-1 in Atlanta’s past six games. The average total in those games was 246.5 points.

You don’t always have to have a strong offence to cash overs. Sometimes, being fast is good enough.

Atlanta ranks 25th in home offensive rating (110.7) and first in home pace (105.23 possessions/game).

Indiana is hitting overs at a better-than-50.0% rate (32-26-2), and each of its past four road games have landed on the over.

When the Pacers and Hawks met in Indiana last month, they cruised by this total in a 132-127 win for Indiana.

NBA SGP picks

Daniels over 14.5 points (-112): Daniels has been coming on strong as a scorer, and it started with a stellar effort against the Pacers on Feb. 1:

23 points
8-of-15 points
2-of-3 threes
5-of-6 free throws

From that game onward, Daniels has averaged 15.9 points and cashed this bet in eight of 14 games. He’s also scored 10-plus points in all 14 games, so the floor has been quite high.

Indiana doesn’t give up a lot of 3s, but that’s not really Daniels’ game anyway. He likes to attack from the short mid-range and around the rim.

The Pacers’ defence allows the seventh-highest field goal percentage (47.4%) in the NBA.

Nesmith over 1.5 threes (-150): He’s not a headliner for the Pacers, but Nesmith fills a solid role as an athletic forward who can shoot well from outside.

Nesmith has really been letting it fly lately, and the results suggest he should keep firing.

Over his past eight games, Nesmith is averaging 2.4 makes on 42.2% 3-point shooting.

He has 2+ threes in 6 of 8 games.

Back on Feb. 1, Nesmith went 2-for-5 from deep against the Hawks.

Against a lightning-quick team like the Hawks, there should be enough possessions for Nesmith to get a solid volume of shots up.

As long as he stays in the range of five or six attempted 3s, he’s plenty capable of cashing this wager.

Picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET 03/06/2025.

Knicks vs. Lakers SGP predictions March 6: Bet on Karl-Anthony Towns and Luka Doncic at +340

The New York Knicks begin their five-game road trip on Thursday against the Los Angeles Lakers.

The pregame narrative: Los Angeles is running red-hot, and I expect it to win behind a strong Luka Doncic performance. On the other side, look for Karl-Anthony Towns to stuff the stat sheet.

Check out my Knicks vs. Lakers SGP predictions for March 6.

Knicks vs. Lakers predictions

Parlay: Lakers moneyline | Towns over 38.5 PRA | Doncic 3+ threes (+340)

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Lakers moneyline (-165): I looked long and hard at teasing up the Knicks as underdogs but got less confident the more I looked into their recent track record.

New York has won six of its last 10 games and it hasn’t been pretty:

All four losses came by 12-plus points against contending teams (Celtics twice, Cavaliers, Warriors).
Five of New York’s six wins were by five points or fewer — and three required overtime. Those wins were against the Joel Embiid-less 76ers, Bulls, Hawks, Heat and Grizzlies.

Los Angeles, meanwhile, has won seven straight games while holding opponents to a meagre 103.1 PPG.

The Lakers are a stellar 24-7 at home this season and should have all of their top dogs available.

NBA SGP picks

Towns over 38.5 PRA (-113): On Tuesday, I backed Zion Williamson to clear his 29.5 points/rebounds total against the Lakers in a +360 SGP that cashed.

Zion blew by that mark with 37 points and four rebounds, and I expect KAT to have similar success.

The two players are far from carbon copies of each other, but this is more about matchup opportunity than anything else.

Los Angeles is missing a bona fide centre since trading away Anthony Davis, starting unproven Jaxson Hayes at the No. 5 and Dorian Finney-Smith at the No. 4.

Towns does plenty of damage from the outside, but I expect him to crash and bang in the paint and hoover up rebounds against an undersized lineup.

He’s averaging 24.5 points, 13.4 rebounds and 3.1 assists on the season.

Doncic 3+ threes (-360): Much to the dismay of Mavericks fans, Doncic is looking more and more like the perennial MVP candidate we’re accustomed to with each passing game.

The dynamic point guard has turned up the heat over his last three outings:

Feb. 28 vs. LAC: 31 points, 3-of-9 from deep
March 2 vs. LAC: 29 points, 5-of-12 from deep
March 4 vs. NO: 30 points, 6-of-13 from deep

Doncic has taken at least seven 3s in every game with L.A., which puts us in a great spot from a volume standpoint. Now he’s taking even more — and has begun to make them.

New York has the worst 3-point defence in the NBA (37.5%). Doncic went 7-for-14 from deep against the Knicks the last time he played them.

Picks made at 8:48 a.m. ET 03/06/2025.

Rockets vs. Pelicans SGP predictions March 6: Ride with Houston, Amen Thompson in +350 parlay

On Thursday night, the Houston Rockets and New Orleans Pelicans embark on the first leg of a home-and-home with a matchup at Smoothie King Center.

The pregame narrative: Zion Williamson is expected to do it all for the Pelicans right now, but I’ve found a way to fade him tonight. On the Rockets’ side, I’m backing Amen Thompson in a plus-money play.

Check out my Rockets vs. Pelicans SGP predictions for March 6.

Rockets vs. Pelicans predictions

Parlay: Rockets ML | Thompson 10+ rebounds | Williamson under 5.5 assists (+350)

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Rockets moneyline (-182): Let’s get the concerning part out of the way first. Houston has lost eight consecutive road games, including the first two of this current trip.

Even so, the Rockets are 17-14 on the road, and they have a 12-4 record as road favourites.

Some teams wield a legitimate home-court advantage, but New Orleans isn’t one of them. The Pelicans are just 11-19 at home, which includes a 4-16 record as home underdogs.

Back in December, when Dejounte Murray was still healthy and productive for the Pelicans, Houston beat New Orleans by 15-plus points in a pair of matchups.

A lot of time has passed and Houston is in a serious rut as a road team. But it’s not like the 17-win Pelicans are in good shape.

NBA SGP picks

Thompson 10+ rebounds (+112): At plus-money odds, you might want to consider this as a straight wager. The Pelicans are among the worst rebounding teams in the NBA, and I’m hoping Thompson takes advantage.

New Orleans ranks 27th in opponent rebounds per game (46.5) and rebounding rate (48.2%).

In Thompson’s first matchup against the Pelicans this year, he was still coming off the bench. The second-year small forward finished with four rebounds in 24 minutes.

One week later against New Orleans, Thompson played 31 minutes as a starter and grabbed 10 boards.

Thompson was once a Sixth Man of the Year candidate, but that fell away when he earned a concrete starting role. And recently, he’s been hauling in a ton of rebounds.

Over his past nine games, Thompson has averaged 9.9 rebounds and cashed this bet five times.

Williamson under 5.5 assists (-148): Williamson has cashed this bet in three straight games, but this isn’t a line he typically clears. And the Rockets aren’t a good matchup for him to buck that trend.

Houston allows the fifth-fewest rebounds per game to opposing power forwards (3.92), per Betting Pros.

Overall, the Rockets allow the second-fewest assists (23.1/game).

Without Murray at point guard, the Pelicans have been an assists-by-committee team. None of their active players average 5.5 assists or more.

On any given night, Williamson could be the primary passer — even though he’s typically the primary scorer, too. But this matchup isn’t calling his name.

Picks made at 9:10 p.m. ET 03/06/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 5: Back Denver’s Braun and Porter Jr., and Detroit’s Thompson

Two Denver Nuggets highlight Wednesday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I have plays on teammates Christian Braun and Michael Porter Jr., in addition to recommendations on Ausar Thompson and Khris Middleton.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 5.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Braun over 20.5 points/rebounds (-125)

I’m pouncing on this. This line is way too light as far as I’m concerned.

The Nuggets guard has been balling and clearing this line with ease of late.

Braun is coming off a 24-point, six-rebound effort in a loss to the Boston Celtics.

In February, he averaged 17.7 points and 7.2 rebounds.

He got 35 minutes a game last month and saw his largest shot volume from the field.

Braun is a solid contributor to Denver’s well-balanced offence and has been excellent on the glass.

For everyone, including the 23-year-old, there should be more rebounds available tonight with Domantas Sabonis on the sidelines for the Sacramento Kings.

Key stat: Since Feb. 1, Braun is 10-3 against this line.

Best NBA picks

Porter over 2.5 threes (-112): Sticking with the Nuggets, this is a good spot to get Porter at close to even money.

The sharpshooter is drilling 2.5 triples per game on 41.0% percent shooting. February was his best 3-point shooting month of the season and he faces a team that struggles to contain opponents from deep.

Sacramento is tied for last in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage. Only two teams allow more threes on a nightly basis.

Porter fell short of this line the last time he faced Sacramento but got up eight shots from long range. He’s a great bet to clear this number if we see a repeat of that volume.

Thompson over 12.5 points (-120): The Detroit Pistons will be without Tobias Harris tonight, the team’s third-leading scorer post-all-star-break, and face the Los Angeles Clippers, who are on a back-to-back.

Extra looks without Harris could go a long way for the efficient Thompson, a modest scorer who’s shooting 56.7% from the field on the season and averaging 13.1 points per game since the start of February.

Over that 14-game stretch, Thompson has cleared this line nine times.

The second-year forward has dropped 13-plus points in three straight and will in all likelihood see an undermanned Clippers squad after the club played Tuesday night in Phoenix.

Back veteran Middleton in plus matchup

Middleton over 14.5 points (-118): The stage is set for one of the ugliest games of the season.

Both the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards are banged up and playing for nothing more than the lottery. But that doesn’t mean tonight’s game is without betting opportunity.

Middleton will represent the biggest name on the floor and he’s the guy I’m targeting.

The veteran is coming off his two best games with the Wizards, dropping 16 points on Monday and 17 over the weekend.

His minutes have been curbed to around 25 a night, but the oft-injured forward faces a horrendous Jazz team.

The Jazz are last in the NBA in defensive rating.
They’ve allowed 130+ points in 5 of their last 12.
No team allows more 3-point attempts/game.

While Middleton hasn’t shot well from long range with Washington, he’s historically been a strong 3-point shooter and will have a good opportunity to get going from deep Wednesday night.

Only the New Orleans Pelicans are surrendering more threes per game.

Picks made at 2:04 p.m. ET on 03/05/2025.

Best NBA prop bets March 5: Back Denver’s Braun and Porter Jr., and Detroit’s Thompson

Two Denver Nuggets highlight Wednesday night’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I have plays on teammates Christian Braun and Michael Porter Jr., in addition to recommendations on Ausar Thompson and Khris Middleton.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 5.

NBA prop bets

Best bet: Braun over 20.5 points/rebounds (-120)

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I’m pouncing on this. This line is way too light as far as I’m concerned.

The Nuggets guard has been balling and clearing this line with ease of late.

Braun is coming off a 24-point, six-rebound effort in a loss to the Boston Celtics.

In February, he averaged 17.7 points and 7.2 rebounds.

He got 35 minutes a game last month and saw his largest shot volume from the field.

Braun is a solid contributor to Denver’s well-balanced offence and has been excellent on the glass.

For everyone, including the 23-year-old, there should be more rebounds available tonight with Domantas Sabonis on the sidelines for the Sacramento Kings.

Key stat: Since Feb. 1, Braun is 10-3 against this line.

Best NBA picks

Porter over 2.5 threes (+104): Sticking with the Nuggets, this is a good spot to get Porter at better than even money.

The sharpshooter is drilling 2.5 triples per game on 41.0% percent shooting. February was his best 3-point shooting month of the season and he faces a team that struggles to contain opponents from deep.

Sacramento is tied for last in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage. Only two teams allow more threes on a nightly basis.

Porter fell short of this line the last time he faced Sacramento but got up eight shots from long range. He’s a great bet to clear this number if we see a repeat of that volume.

Thompson over 12.5 points (-110): The Detroit Pistons will be without Tobias Harris tonight, the team’s third-leading scorer post-all-star-break, and face the Los Angeles Clippers, who are on a back-to-back.

Extra looks without Harris could go a long way for the efficient Thompson, a modest scorer who’s shooting 56.7% from the field on the season and averaging 13.1 points per game since the start of February.

Over that 14-game stretch, Thompson has cleared this line nine times.

The second-year forward has dropped 13-plus points in three straight and will in all likelihood see an undermanned Clippers squad after the club played Tuesday night in Phoenix.

Back veteran Middleton in plus matchup

Middleton over 14.5 points (-118): The stage is set for one of the ugliest games of the season.

Both the Utah Jazz and Washington Wizards are banged up and playing for nothing more than the lottery. But that doesn’t mean tonight’s game is without betting opportunity.

Middleton will represent the biggest name on the floor and he’s the guy I’m targeting.

The veteran is coming off his two best games with the Wizards, dropping 16 points on Monday and 17 over the weekend.

His minutes have been curbed to around 25 a night, but the oft-injured forward faces a horrendous Jazz team.

The Jazz are last in the NBA in defensive rating.
They’ve allowed 130+ points in 5 of their last 12.
No team allows more 3-point attempts/game.

While Middleton hasn’t shot well from long range with Washington, he’s historically been a strong 3-point shooter and will have a good opportunity to get going from deep Wednesday night.

Only the New Orleans Pelicans are surrendering more threes per game.

Picks made at 2:04 p.m. ET on 03/05/2025.

Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks March 5: Expect Nikola Jokic to go over his assist total

With a road trip sweep in sight, the Sacramento Kings face the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night at Ball Arena.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento is 3-0 on its current road trip, but it’ll have to figure things out without a key player tonight. I’m backing this game’s biggest star, Nikola Jokic, in my best bet while also predicting a strong effort from Zach LaVine.

Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks for March 5.

Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 9.5 assists (-150)

Jokic is an elite stat-stuffer who poses a triple-double threat every single night. Lately, he’s been making good on that threat more often than not.

Keep in mind that Jokic (28.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists) is averaging a triple-double. As you might suspect, no one else is doing that. In fact, no one else is even close.

When the Nuggets face the Kings, Jokic usually has some compelling matchups in the paint against Domantas Sabonis. But Sabonis (hamstring) is out tonight, which should clear the way for Jokic to be even more effective.

This are Jokic’s past three assists outputs against the Kings:

Feb. 28, 2024: 11
Dec. 16, 2024: 13
Jan. 23, 2025: 17

Jokic’s assist total is usually the main concern in his pursuit of a triple-double. But given that Sacramento allows the ninth-most assists to opposing centres, per Betting Pros, that shouldn’t be as much of a problem.

Over his past 28 games, Jokic has cashed this bet 20 times. He’s also landed on exactly nine assists five other times.

Key stat: Dating back to Jan. 1, Jokic is averaging 11.4 assists.

Quick pick

LaVine over 23.5 points (-130): On Monday, in his first Kings game without Sabonis, LaVine had a tidy 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-5 from 3-point range).

Surely he could’ve accomplished more if there’d been a need, but his shot volume was curtailed by the fact that the Kings were steamrolling the Dallas Mavericks.

LaVine has 20-plus points in eight of his 11 games with Sacramento. Now he’ll face a Denver squad that allows the most PPG to opposing shooting guards (23.86).

Denver might be a championship-calibre team, but it doesn’t have a championship-calibre defence.

The Nuggets allow the eighth-most points per game (116.0) and the seventh-most 3s (13.9).

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET 03/05/2025.

Pistons vs. Clippers SGP predictions March 5: Fade James Harden, back Detroit to win

In Wednesday’s NBA nightcap, the Detroit Pistons are on the road to face the Los Angeles Clippers.

The pregame narrative: Detroit is hot right now and should come away with a win as the more rested team tonight. I’m also fading one player per side — James Harden and Tim Hardaway Jr. — in this +310 parlay.

Check out my Pistons vs. Clippers SGP predictions for March 5.

Pistons vs. Clippers predictions

Parlay: Pistons ML | Harden under 30.5 points/rebounds | Hardaway under 2.5 threes (+310)

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Pistons moneyline (-186): After a long and winding journey, the Clippers are back at home. They haven’t played inside Intuit Dome since Feb. 12.

The road trip, which started before the all-star break, was a disaster. L.A. went 2-6 SU (0-8 ATS), losing three times as the favourite.

Playing on a back-to-back, against a surging Pistons team, isn’t exactly a soft landing for the Clippers in their homecoming.

Detroit is 8-2 as a road favourite this year. Also, the Pistons have been playing some of the best basketball in the league over their past 15 games:

12-3 record
2nd in defensive rating
3rd in net rating
+11.9 average point differential

There were some less-than-stellar opponents in that stretch, but Detroit did claim victories over the reigning-champion Celtics and these Clippers.

The 106-97 win over L.A. came on Feb. 24, with Detroit covering as a 3-point home favourite.

L.A. is 4-8 ATS when playing on zero rest this season.

SGP legs

Harden under 30.5 points/rebounds (-112): Harden had an unusually strong game as a rebounder when he last faced the Pistons, grabbing 12 boards for the first time since November.

And yet he still didn’t exceed this points/rebounds total.

I don’t expect that rebounding volume to be repeated tonight, as Detroit has the fourth-highest rebounding rate in the NBA (51.7%).

The Pistons are also tough against point guards across the board:

7th-fewest points allowed
3rd-fewest rebounds allowed
Fewest assists allowed

Harden also doesn’t clear this line regularly. In his past 16 games, he’s averaged 26.9 PR and hit this under 13 times.

Hardaway under 2.5 threes (-175): The Pistons don’t need a huge night from Hardaway to win this game. He is, at best, the fourth scoring option for Detroit on any given night.

Hardaway is also third in the team’s pecking order for 3-point shot attempts (5.8/game), and his volume is low enough that he typically falls short of this total.

On the season, Hardaway has gone under 2.5 threes in 41 of 58 games (70.7%). That includes an 0-for-5 performance against the Clippers last month.

L.A. allows the 11th-lowest opponent 3PT% in the NBA, so it’s not like this is an enticing matchup for Hardaway to exceed expectations.

Picks made at 12:50 p.m. ET 03/05/2025.

Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks March 5: Why Nikola Jokic has value to record a triple-double

With a road trip sweep in sight, the Sacramento Kings face the Denver Nuggets on Wednesday night at Ball Arena.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento is 3-0 on its current road trip, but it’ll have to figure things out without a key player tonight. I’m backing this game’s biggest star, Nikola Jokic, in my best bet while also predicting a strong effort from Zach LaVine.

Check out my Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks for March 5.

Kings vs. Nuggets prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic to record a triple-double (-110)

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Jokic is a triple-double threat every single night. Lately, he’s been making good on that threat more often than not.

From Dec. 30 onward, Jokic has a triple-double in 16 of 28 games.

In that same span, he’s finished one assist/rebound shy of a triple-double eight times.

Keep in mind that Jokic (28.9 points, 12.7 rebounds, 10.4 assists) is averaging a triple-double. As you might suspect, no one else is doing that. In fact, no one else is even close.

When the Nuggets face the Kings, Jokic usually has some compelling matchups in the paint against Domantas Sabonis. But Sabonis (hamstring) is out tonight, which should clear the way for Jokic to be even more effective.

This are Jokic’s past three points/rebounds/assists outputs against the Kings:

Feb. 28, 2024: 14/14/11
Dec. 16, 2024: 20/14/13
Jan. 23, 2025: 35/22/17

Jokic’s assist total is usually the main concern in his pursuit of a triple-double. But given that Sacramento allows the ninth-most assists to opposing centres, per Betting Pros, that shouldn’t be as much of a problem.

Key stat: Jokic has a triple-double in each of his past three matchups against the Kings.

Quick pick

LaVine over 23.5 points (-125): On Monday, in his first Kings game without Sabonis, LaVine had a tidy 22 points on 8-of-12 shooting (4-of-5 from 3-point range).

Surely he could’ve accomplished more if there’d been a need, but his shot volume was curtailed by the fact that the Kings were steamrolling the Dallas Mavericks.

LaVine has 20-plus points in eight of his 11 games with Sacramento. Now he’ll face a Denver squad that allows the most PPG to opposing shooting guards (23.86).

Denver might be a championship-calibre team, but it doesn’t have a championship-calibre defence.

The Nuggets allow the eighth-most points per game (116.0) and the seventh-most 3s (13.9).

Picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET 03/05/2025.