The Dallas Mavericks host the Sacramento Kings on Monday night with each team missing bodies.
The pregame narrative: Nearly all of Dallas’ big men are sidelined while Domantas Sabonis is out for Sacramento. I expect DeMar DeRozan to have a solid game on the glass and Klay Thompson to go off from beyond the arc.
Check out my Kings vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for March 3.
Kings vs. Mavericks predictions
Parlay: DeRozan 4+ rebounds | Thompson 4+ threes | Under 244.5 points (+325)
DeRozan 4+ rebounds (-167): Fading Dallas’ rebounding abilities has been a theme lately, which isn’t exactly rocket science considering Anthony Davis, Daniel Gafford and Dereck Lively are all out.
Typically, my attention would be on targeting the opposing centre — Jonas Valanciunas draws in for Sabonis on Monday — but I’m more confident in DeRozan reaching this attainable milestone.
- DeRozan is averaging 3.9 rebounds per game this year.
- He’s hit this mark in 8 of his last 9 games.
- Dallas allows the 10th-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.
DeRozan has a prime opportunity to outperform his baseline with all of the injuries in the frontcourt tonight.
NBA SGP picks
Thompson 4+ threes (+105): Thompson has turned back the clock since the all-star break, averaging 4.0 threes per night while shooting 50.0% from beyond the arc.
He’s cleared this total in four of those five games but the success really began when the calendar turned.
- Thompson is averaging 3.3 threes on 7.7 attempts since Jan. 1 (42.7 3PT%).
- He’s hit 3+ threes in 17 of 25 games and 4+ threes in 13 of 25 games.
The Kings are tied for the worst 3-point defence (37.6%) in basketball and Thompson shot 5-for-10 from deep against them in just 28 minutes on Feb. 10.
Under 244.5 points (-500): To round out this parlay I’m taking the under on a max-teased game total, lengthening the ticket’s odds from +225 to +330.
The under is 6-4 in the last two meetings between these teams with eight of 10 games falling under this number. The two outliers both required overtime and would have fallen under 235 points otherwise.
The Mavericks have slowed their game down significantly with their injuries, ranking 20th in pace since Feb. 1. The Kings rank 19th in the same span.
The under on this total is 8-2 in the Kings’ last 10 games and 7-3 in the Mavericks’ last 10.
Picks made at 10:15 a.m. ET 03/03/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.