I’m backing three players to fill the net in Sunday’s NBA prop bets.
The pregame narrative: CJ McCollum draws an excellent matchup that he’s taken advantage of in the past, while Bam Adebayo is shooting at a matchup-proof clip right now. Elsewhere, Josh Giddey is on a bona fide heater as a scorer and passer.
Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 2.
NBA prop bets
Best bet: McCollum over 18.5 points (-118)
The Utah Jazz allow the most 3-point attempts per game (40.8), and McCollum has already taken full advantage this season.
In back-to-back home games against the Jazz in January, McCollum shot a combined 11-of-24 from deep. He scored 26 and 45 points, respectively, in those games.
I strongly considered taking McCollum over 2.5 threes (-141) as the best bet, but the price on his points prop was more compelling.
Besides, if McCollum is hitting the over on one of these props he’s likely cashing both.
Of his 26 games this year with three-plus 3s, McCollum scored 20-plus points 22 times. He finished with exactly 19 points in each of the four outliers.
This season, McCollum has scored 20-plus points in 24 of 45 games (53.3%). Utah, which allows the most attempted 3s and the fourth-most points per game (119.3), serves as a stellar matchup for him to cash in again.
Utah also allows the third-most points to opposing point guards (25.62/game), per Betting Pros.
Key stat: McCollum is averaging 30.8 PPG over his past five matchups against Utah, cashing this bet every time.
Best NBA picks
Adebayo over 19.5 points (-130): Shortly after Jimmy Butler played his final game for the Miami Heat, Adebayo started to pick up the offensive slack.
Since Jan. 27, Adebayo has averaged 21.5 points in 13 games. And the production has been steady.
- 18+ points in 12 of 13
- 20+ points in 8 of 13
With a career-low 48.2% field goal rate this season, it’s been a down year for Miami’s centre as a scorer. But he’s posted a 54.7 FG% since Butler left, so maybe we’re starting the old Adebayo return.
The New York Knicks, who Adebayo faces tonight, have allowed the 20th-most PPG to centres over their past 30 games (21.07).
Though the matchup isn’t a plus for Adebayo, it’s not daunting enough to deter me from making this pick.
Giddey over 26.5 points/assists (-120): What has gotten into Giddey lately? I’m not sure, but I’m buying in tonight.
Giddey has been going off lately, posting some truly outsized numbers over his past five games:
- 23.2 PPG
- 8.8 APG
- 30+ pts/ast in 5 of 5 games
He’s only averaging 19.7 PA on the season, and he’s been a starter the whole way through.
But with Zach LaVine gone, and both Ayo Dosumnu and Nikola Vucevic missing time recently, there’s been more opportunity for Giddey to shine.
Dosunmu and Vucevic are both out again on Sunday.
Fast-paced teams are helpful for overs, and that’s what we have when the Chicago Bulls face the Indiana Pacers. Both teams rank in the top six in possessions per game.
Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET on 03/02/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.