Category: NBA

Jalen Brunson remains sidelined with an ankle injury, and that has me targeting two of his teammates for Monday’s New York Knicks vs. Sacramento Kings matchup.

The pregame narrative: OG Anunoby has some enticing plus-money value on his 3s prop, and that’s my best bet for tonight. I also like Mikal Bridges to go over his points prop after excelling last time out against Sacramento.

Check out my Knicks vs. Kings prop picks for March 10.

Knicks vs. Kings prop picks

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Best Bet: Anunoby over 2.5 threes (+125)

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If the Knicks want to take advantage of a Grade-A matchup from 3-point land tonight, Anunoby should be the guy leading the charge.

Over the Knicks’ past 15 games, the ex-Raptor leads the team on a per-game basis in makes (2.8) and attempts (7.3).

Let’s take it back even further. Here are Anunoby’s 3-point numbers since Jan. 15:

• 40.7 3PT%
• 2.8 makes
• 6.8 attempts
• 3+ makes in 9 of 16 games
• 6+ attempts in 12 of 16 games

Anunoby has attempted eight or more 3s in five straight games. Without Brunson — who’s averaging the third-most attempted 3s for the Knicks this season — I would expect that volume to persist.

And remember, this is a Grade-A matchup for New York’s outside shooters. The Kings allow the third most 3s per game (14.3) and the second-highest 3PT% (37.4) in the NBA.

Anunoby went 4-for-7 beyond the arc against Sacramento on Jan. 25.

Key stat: Anunoby has cashed this bet in six of his past 10 games.

Quick pick

Bridges over 18.5 points (-107): I think it’s safe to say Bridges has underwhelmed in his first year with the Knicks, but the situation he’s facing tonight is a promising one.

In two games without Bridges this season, Bridges scored 20-plus points both times.

One of those games was three nights ago against the Clippers. Bridges shot 8-for-12 from the field (6-for-6 from the free-throw line) to finish with 22 points.

Back in January, when Brunson was healthy, Bridges torched the Kings for 27 points on 10-of-15 shooting. There were plenty of buckets to go around, as four Knicks finished with 20-plus points that night.

Without Brunson, more of the scoring burden should fall to Bridges on Monday night.

Knicks vs. Kings prop picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET 03/10/2025.

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For the second time in as many days, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets at Paycom Center.

The pregame narrative: OKC ran away with yesterday’s game, 127-103, behind a 40-piece from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In Monday’s rematch, I’m backing the MVP frontrunner and fading Nikola Jokic in a +300 same-game parlay.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions for March 10.

Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions

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Parlay: Jokic under 25.5 points | Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ threes | Williams 20+ points (+300)

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Jokic under 25.5 points (-118): Whether it’s as a scorer, rebounder or passer, Jokic is going to find a way to break down his opponents.

Against Oklahoma City, Jokic has racked up big rebound and assist totals in all three matchups this year — but his production as a scorer is lacking:

• Oct. 24: 16 pts, 12 reb, 13 ast
• Nov. 6: 23 pts, 20 reb, 16 ast
• March 9: 24 pts, 13 reb, 9 ast

Jokic is averaging 28.8 points per game, but a daunting matchup can make a difference. OKC owns a 105.6 defensive rating, which is on track to be the NBA’s lowest defensive rating since 2019-20.

The Thunder allow the eighth-fewest PPG to opposing centres (20.46), per Betting Pros.

NBA SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ threes (-190): A key part of Gilgeous-Alexander’s ascension as the top scorer in the NBA has been an influx of 3-point attempts this season.

• SGA is averaging 5.8 attempted 3s, which is well above his career average (3.7).

• Shooting at a 37.2% clip, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 2.1 makes per game.

I have mixed feelings about SGA’s 2-for-11 performance beyond the arc on Sunday. Though it was terribly inefficient, the volume was thoroughly encouraging.

Gilgeous-Alexander has now cashed this bet in five straight games, as well as in 15 of his past 21.

Also, the Canadian superstar has multiple 3s in four of his past five against the Nuggets.

Jalen Williams 20+ points (-286): Though he’s always the Robin to SGA’s Batman, Williams is a high-floor scorer who’s made a habit of hitting the 20-point milestone.

• 20+ points in 7 straight games
• 18+ points in 22 of his past 25 games

Coming off a 26-point effort against Denver on Sunday, Williams is now averaging 23.1 PPG over his past 20 games.

Denver is 20th in the NBA in defensive rating (114.4) and allows the most points to opposing shooting guards (23.68/game).

Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 03/10/2025.

Stephen Curry and the Golden State Warriors are on a roll, and that’ll likely continue on Monday night against the Portland Trail Blazers.

The pregame narrative: Golden State is at home with a rest advantage against a Trail Blazers squad sitting outside the postseason picture. Look for Curry to stay active as a scorer and for Donovan Clingan to chip in for Portland on the glass.

Check out my Trail Blazers vs. Warriors SGP predictions for March 10.

Trail Blazers vs. Warriors predictions

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Parlay: Warriors -9.5 | Clingan 8+ rebounds | Curry over 27.5 points (+310)

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Warriors -9.5 (-177): The Jimmy Butler effect has been a huge plus for the Warriors.

The six-time all-star is fitting in seamlessly, with 17.8 points, 5.3 rebounds and 5.3 assists per game with his new squad (12 games).

On a team level, the Warriors are 9-2-1 ATS (11-1 SU) in the games he’s played.

That includes a 2-0-1 ATS mark at home, and two of those wins came by 20-plus points (vs. Hornets, Mavericks).

Portland is playing on a back-to-back tonight after dropping three straight games SU and ATS. Given that the Warriors beat the Blazers on the road by 36 earlier this year, a double-digit margin of any kind should be within reach for the hosts on Monday.

NBA SGP legs

Clingan 8+ rebounds (-275): Clingan’s opportunities have fluctuated throughout the season, which is often how it goes for a rookie. But he’s getting consistent starts right now, and the production is starting to follow.

• In his past 11 games (all starts), Clingan has averaged 9.4 rebounds.

• As a starter this season, he’s averaging 9.6 rebounds in 21 matchups.

Last night, the 7-foot-2 UConn product snagged nine boards against the Pistons. He’s cashed this bet in all three starts this year when playing on zero rest, so that aspect doesn’t discourage me.

Also, the Warriors allow the third-most rebounds to opposing centres (16.38), per Betting Pros.

Curry over 27.5 points (-125): I took the over on Cade Cunningham’s points prop against the Blazers last night and it cashed. Let’s go back to that well by targeting another point guard against Portland.

• The Blazers allow the fifth-most PPG to opposing point guards (25.59).

• Curry has 28+ points in 10 of his past 15 games.

Since Butler joined the squad, Curry has averaged 30.4 PPG with 50.0/42.2/91.7 shooting splits. Much like Golden State’s season as a whole, Curry looks rejuvenated.

Back in January, when LaVine was still with the Chicago Bulls, he dropped 35 points in Los Angeles while shooting 5-for-12 from beyond the arc.

Way back in the 2024-25 season opener, Curry had 17 points in 25 minutes against the Blazers in a blowout win. There is some blowout potential tonight, but if that happens, hopefully, it’s because Curry has already filled the net several times over.

Trail Blazers vs. Warriors predictions made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 03/10/2025.

Sunday’s final matchup of the night features Kawhi Leonard and the Los Angeles Clippers against the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: Leonard and the Clippers should be able to defeat a shorthanded Kings squad. This four-leg, +340 SGP includes picks on an alt total and Zach LaVine.

Check out my Kings vs. Clippers SGP predictions for March 9.

Kings vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers ML | Under 225.5 points | LaVine 20+ points | Leonard 2+ threes (+340)

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Clippers moneyline (-210): The Clippers dominated both matchups against the Kings this season, winning by at least nine points each time.

Both of those games were back in November, so you might argue that they aren’t particularly relevant to Sunday’s rematch. But I still think L.A. should be at a distinct advantage.

De’Aaron Fox balled out in both those matchups, scoring a total of 60 points — and he plays for the Spurs now. On the Clippers’ side, Kawhi Leonard is healthy after not playing for the Clippers in either of the previous matchups against the Kings.

L.A. is 16-4 as a home favourite, which includes a 10-point win over the New York Knicks two nights ago.

NBA SGP legs

Under 225.5 points (-335): In addition to the since-departed Fox, the Kings won’t have Domantas Sabonis or Malik Monk on the court tonight. That should really lower their scoring ceiling.

Clippers leading scorer Norman Powell (23.8 PPG) is also out, and L.A. is primarily an unders team whether he’s in the lineup or not.

• Unders are 35-28 in Clippers games this season.

• Unders are 11-8-1 when the Clippers are home favourites.

• Both matchups between the Kings and Clippers this season finished at 205 or fewer points.

Unders also happen to be hot right now for Sacramento. The under has cashed in five of the Kings’ past six games, and four of those games went below this total.

LaVine 20+ points (-278): Even though a lot of Kings games have been hitting the under lately, this is a scoring milestone LaVine is cashing regularly.

• LaVine is averaging 23.4 points in his 13 games since joining the Kings.

• He has 20+ points in 10 of 13 games.

Somebody has to score for the Kings, right? LaVine is the guy for the job, and his 42.9 3PT% with Sacramento (on 7.5 attempts) shows that he can catch fire any game.

Back in January, when LaVine was still with the Chicago Bulls, he dropped 35 points in Los Angeles while shooting 5-for-12 from beyond the arc.

Leonard 2+ threes (-220): After cashing this bet in five straight games, Leonard has failed to hit the mark in his past two. But his 3-point volume is still substantial enough that I’m bullish about this milestone.

In his past seven games, Leonard has averaged 2.4 made threes on 6.6 attempts (37.0 3PT%). He has attempted at least five 3s in all seven of those matchups.

Sacramento is a good matchup for Leonard to stay hot beyond the arc.

The Kings allow the second-highest 3PT% in the NBA (37.4) and the third-most 3s (14.4/game).

Kings vs. Clippers predictions made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 03/09/2025.

In what could be a preview for a playoff matchup down the road, the Milwaukee Bucks face the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers on Sunday night.

The pregame narrative: I’ve got my eyes on a pair of frontcourt all-stars, Giannis Antetokounmpo and Evan Mobley. I’m tailing one and fading the other in this marquee matchup.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Bucks prop picks for March 9.

Cavaliers vs. Bucks prop picks

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Best Bet: Giannis over 28.5 points (-118)

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With two talented bigs in the frontcourt (Mobley, Jarrett Allen), the Cavaliers seem like they’d be a difficult team to score on in the paint.

That hasn’t been an issue for Giannis, though.

• The two-time MVP has cleaned up in recent matchups against the Cavaliers, going over the 30-point mark in six of their past seven meetings.

• As a whole this season, Giannis is averaging 30.9 points.

• He has 29+ points in 39 of 50 games.

Last night, Giannis had 37 points against the Magic, who have the No. 1 scoring defence in the NBA.

Some folks might be concerned about Giannis’ production potential on a back-to-back, but I’m not among them. The Greek Freak has done some of his very best work when playing on zero rest.

In nine back-to-backs so far, Giannis has posted 32.3 PPG — better than his standard scoring average — and cashed this bet six times.

Combining his unflappability on back-to-backs with his recent dominance against Cleveland, and this looks like a strong spot for the big man in front of a home crowd.

Keep in mind that he also tends to score more at home (32.5 PPG) than on the road (28.9).

Key stat: Since Nov. 25, 2022, Giannis has averaged 34.4 PPG in seven matchups against Cleveland. That includes 33-plus points in both games this season.

Quick pick

Mobley under 18.5 points (-118): Mobley was a perfectly justifiable addition to the all-star team this season, but he doesn’t tend to look like an all-star when he faces Giannis and the Bucks.

• The fourth-year power forward has gone under this point total in all three matchups against Milwaukee this season.

• In his career, Mobley has averaged 16.5 points vs. the Bucks. This bet is 7-3 in those games.

Giannis and Brook Lopez have a combined five all-defensive team honours over the previous five seasons. They can be tricky for bigs to navigate around.

As a group, the Bucks allow the seventh-fewest points to opposing power forwards, per Betting Pros. This is simply not a good matchup for Mobley, and he’s rarely overcome it in the past.

Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET 03/09/2025.

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A pair of all-star guards and a rookie centre round out Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Cade Cunningham and Darius Garland both have plus matchups tonight despite playing on the road. Elsewhere, look for Kyle Filipowski to continue filling up the net from 3-point range.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 9.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Cunningham over 27.5 points (-118)

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Cunningham has put forth a strong effort during the Detroit Pistons’ West Coast road trip, and I expect him to end on a high note against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Here’s what Cunningham has accomplished so far on the trip:

• 29 points vs. Jazz (12-for-24)
• 37 points vs. Clippers (15-for-25)
• 31 points vs. Warriors (10-for-17)

That’s now five of his past six road games in which he’s cashed this bet. All told, he’s averaging a couple of extra points on the road this season (26.5 PPG) compared to at home (24.6 PPG).

On Sunday, Cunningham draws an enticing matchup against the Blazers. Portland allows the fifth-most points to opposing point guards (25.59), according to Betting Pros.

In his lone matchup against the Blazers this year, Cunningham had 32 points on 11-of-23 shooting (4-for-10 from 3-point range).

Detroit is playing on a back-to-back, but Portland will likely be feeling the effects of a seven-game road trip that just ended on Friday.

I’m not worried about a lack of rest for Cunningham, and I’m certainly not worried about the matchup tonight.

Key stat: Cunningham has gone over 27.5 points in four consecutive games when playing on zero rest.

Best NBA picks

Garland over 6.5 assists (-141): Usually, the Milwaukee Bucks are a team to target when you want to bet on the points prop for opposing point guards (shoutout Damian Lillard).

I’ll highlight Darius Garland’s assists prop on Sunday instead, though. Garland is averaging 6.7 assists this year and has cashed this bet in six of his past eight games.

Garland’s points prop is set at an attainable number (19.5) for a guy averaging 21.0 PPG on the year. So I don’t mind that option either, considering the Bucks allow the most PPG to point guards in the league.

His shooting has been a bit cold lately, though, and he has 23 assists over three games against Milwaukee this year (cashing this bet twice).

I prefer going the assists route for Sunday, but there might be more than one way to target Garland.

Filipowski over 1.5 threes (+117): Filipowski’s 3-point percentage is due for some regression, but I also think he’s earned the chance to get more shots up.

The second-rounder out of Duke should get the start for the Utah Jazz tonight with Walker Kessler (rest) ruled out. With an elevated role over his past 10 games, Filipowski has been superb beyond the arc:

• 2.2 3PM
• 4.2 3PA
• 52.4 3PT%
• 4+ attempts in 9 of 10 games

As long as he attempted four or more 3s, I’ll feel okay about Filipowski’s chances to cash this plus-money prop.

But hopefully he’ll be encouraged to shoot even more freely against the Philadelphia 76ers, who allow the fourth-highest 3PT% in the league (37.0).

Picks made at 8:52 a.m. ET on 03/09/2025.