For the second time in as many days, the Oklahoma City Thunder host the Denver Nuggets at Paycom Center.
The pregame narrative: OKC ran away with yesterday’s game, 127-103, behind a 40-piece from Shai Gilgeous-Alexander. In Monday’s rematch, I’m backing the MVP frontrunner and fading Nikola Jokic in a +300 same-game parlay.
Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder SGP predictions for March 10.
Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions
Parlay: Jokic under 25.5 points | Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ threes | Williams 20+ points (+300)
Jokic under 25.5 points (-118): Whether it’s as a scorer, rebounder or passer, Jokic is going to find a way to break down his opponents.
Against Oklahoma City, Jokic has racked up big rebound and assist totals in all three matchups this year — but his production as a scorer is lacking:
- Oct. 24: 16 pts, 12 reb, 13 ast
- Nov. 6: 23 pts, 20 reb, 16 ast
- March 9: 24 pts, 13 reb, 9 ast
Jokic is averaging 28.8 points per game, but a daunting matchup can make a difference. OKC owns a 105.6 defensive rating, which is on track to be the NBA’s lowest defensive rating since 2019-20.
The Thunder allow the eighth-fewest PPG to opposing centres (20.46), per Betting Pros.
NBA SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander 2+ threes (-190): A key part of Gilgeous-Alexander’s ascension as the top scorer in the NBA has been an influx of 3-point attempts this season.
- SGA is averaging 5.8 attempted 3s, which is well above his career average (3.7).
- Shooting at a 37.2% clip, Gilgeous-Alexander is averaging 2.1 makes per game.
I have mixed feelings about SGA’s 2-for-11 performance beyond the arc on Sunday. Though it was terribly inefficient, the volume was thoroughly encouraging.
Gilgeous-Alexander has now cashed this bet in five straight games, as well as in 15 of his past 21.
Also, the Canadian superstar has multiple 3s in four of his past five against the Nuggets.
Jalen Williams 20+ points (-286): Though he’s always the Robin to SGA’s Batman, Williams is a high-floor scorer who’s made a habit of hitting the 20-point milestone.
- 20+ points in 7 straight games
- 18+ points in 22 of his past 25 games
Coming off a 26-point effort against Denver on Sunday, Williams is now averaging 23.1 PPG over his past 20 games.
Denver is 20th in the NBA in defensive rating (114.4) and allows the most points to opposing shooting guards (23.68/game).
Nuggets vs. Thunder predictions made at 11:20 a.m. ET on 03/10/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.