Category: NBA

In the absence of a couple of stars, the Memphis Grizzlies face the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: Both teams are missing a notable scorer, which is part of the reason I’m taking a teased-up under tonight. But I still expect Santi Aldama and Isaiah Collier to chip in offensively for their respective squads.

Check out my Grizzlies vs. Jazz SGP predictions for March 25.

Grizzlies vs. Jazz predictions

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Parlay: Under 245.5 points | Aldama 2+ threes | Collier 6+ assists (+280)

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Under 245.5 points (-205): The Grizzlies won’t have Ja Morant tonight, and his absence takes a huge bite out of this team’s talented offence.

• Memphis has gone under this total in three of four games since Morant was sidelined with a hamstring injury.

• Unders are 7-3 in the Jazz and Grizzlies’ past 10 games, respectively.

• Unders are 2-0 in previous matchups between these teams. The average total in those games was 232.5 points.

Utah’s leading scorer, Lauri Markkanen (19.0 PPG), is also out.

Markkanen has only played four of Utah’s 16 games since Feb. 24. In that span, the team ranks 28th in offensive rating (107.1).

NBA SGP legs

Aldama 2+ threes (-175): Aldama has missed most of this month with a calf injury, but he’s turned in a pair of nice performances beyond the arc recently.

• March 19: 2-for-4
• March 21: 3-for-8

Morant’s absence should mean more 3-point opportunities for shooters like Aldama, Desmond Bane and Jaren Jackson Jr. And this is a great matchup to raise the floor on shot volume.

Utah allows the most 3-point makes (14.7/game) and attempts (41.6/game) in the NBA.

In 19 games without Morant this year, Aldama has cashed this bet 12 times while averaging 2.1 threes.

Collier 6+ assists (-245): A lot has gone wrong for the Jazz this year, but Collier has been a bright spot — at least as a passer.

Let’s not lose sleep over the guard’s 41.5% field goal percentage right now. The positive headliner for the ex-USC guard is that he leads all NBA rookies in assists per game (6.2).

Collier wasn’t a starter from Day 1, but he’s been in that role for close to three months now.

• In 39 games as a starter, Collier has averaged 7.9 assists.

• He has 6+ assists in 35 of his past 40 games.

Memphis allows the 10th-most assists per game, and Collier finished with six dishes in 28 minutes when he faced the Grizzlies two weeks ago.

Grizzlies vs. Jazz predictions made at 3:30 p.m. ET 03/25/2025.

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Jimmy Butler returns to South Beach to face the Miami Heat tonight, and I’ve got my eye on that matchup.

The pregame narrative: Can vengeance carry Butler to a quality effort against the Heat? I’m hoping so. I also like Trae Young and Spencer Dinwiddie to exceed their respective assist props.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 25.

NBA prop bets

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Best Bet: Dinwiddie over 5.5 assists (-121)

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I’m all in on Dinwiddie, who has taken up the mantle as the primary facilitator for the Mavericks amid their slew of injuries.

His statistical boost in the passing department aligns with Kyrie Irving’s season-ending injury, which was sustained on March 3.

• In 11 games since Irving’s injury, Dinwiddie has averaged 6.2 assists and is 7-4 against this prop.

• In previous matchups this season, Dinwiddie had averaged 3.7 assists and was just 13-46 against this prop.

On Tuesday, Dinwiddie faces the New York Knicks, who he thrived against when he last faced them in late November: 21 points and nine assists in 33 minutes.

Dallas is on a back-to-back tonight, so it’ll be worth checking the NBA injury report closer to game time to see about any injuries. But I don’t expect to see Dinwiddie pop up.

The last time Dinwiddie played on zero rest, he had six assists in 37 minutes (on March 10).

Key stat: Dinwiddie has gone over 5.5 assists in seven of his past nine starts. He’s averaging 5.8 assists as a starter this year.

Best NBA picks

Young over 9.5 assists (-118): Young faces arguably his toughest matchup possible tonight, the Houston Rockets, but I still have a difficult time fading him at this number.

• Young leads the NBA in both assists per game (11.4) and potential assists per game (20.7).

• He has 10+ assists in 43 of 66 games (65.2%).

The Rockets allow the fewest assists to their opponents, as well as the second-fewest to point guards in particular, per Betting Pros.

Young finished with nine assists against the Rockets on Jan. 28, but he had 14 when he faced them on the road last season.

While understanding the difficulty of the matchup, I still think Young has a better chance than not of cashing this bet tonight in Houston.

Butler over 20.5 points (-127): Heads up, this play is a bit narrative-heavy. But I feel compelled to back Butler in his return to Miami.

Butler is facing the Heat for the first time since a messy departure earlier this season. Following a trade request and three suspensions in a month’s time, Butler was finally dealt to the Golden State Warriors in early February.

The marriage with the Warriors is working out so far, especially from a volume standpoint. Butler has averaged 11.8 field goal attempts and 7.9 free throw attempts through 19 games.

I am paying a bit of narrative tax here, given that Butler’s points prop is set notably higher than his scoring average with the Warriors (17.6 PPG).

But pettiness can be a powerful drug, and I still want to buy in on Butler.

The veteran forward has scored 23-plus points in three of his past four games.

NBA prop picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET on 03/25/2025.

The Phoenix Suns look to build on another successful homestand with Monday night’s showdown against the Milwaukee Bucks.

The pregame narrative: Devin Booker and Giannis Antetokounmpo both factor into this +295 SGP. I’m also taking Phoenix to win as a modest home favourite.

Check out my Bucks vs. Suns SGP predictions for March 24.

Bucks vs. Suns predictions

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Parlay: Suns ML | Giannis 30+ points | Booker 6+ assists (+295)

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Suns moneyline (-143): Staring down the grim reality of a battle to reach the play-in round, the Suns authored their best win of the season on Friday.

As 8.5-point home underdogs, the Suns beat the Eastern Conference-leading Cleveland Cavaliers, 123-112.

That marked Phoenix’s fifth straight home win — a stretch that includes an underdog victory over the Los Angeles Clippers.

Phoenix is 22-13 at home this season, compared to just 12-24 on the road. Milwaukee also has a sub-.500 road record (16-18), so location matters quite a bit in this matchup.

The Bucks are 14-19-1 ATS on the road, per Team Rankings.

NBA SGP legs

Giannis 30+ points (-175): One contributing factor for me backing the Suns is the absence of Damian Lillard, who will miss a third consecutive game due to a calf injury.

Giannis is a 30-point threat even when Lillard is on the floor. But without his co-star, the Greek Freak should have an even greater chance to fill the net.

• Giannis is averaging 30.2 PPG this year (third straight year averaging 30+ points).

• In 15 games without Lillard since the start of last season, Giannis has averaged 31.5 PPG and cashed this bet eight times.

Many people will remember Giannis for his 50 points in an NBA Finals-clinching masterpiece against Phoenix in 2021 (and later, the 50 Chick-fil-A nuggets he ordered live on Instagram).

He also cashed this milestone in both matchups against the Suns in the two previous seasons.

Booker 6+ assists (-275): Running point for the Suns, Booker has been very reliable against this milestone in recent weeks.

• 8.0 assists/game in past 18 games
• 6+ assists in 16 of 18
• 7+ assists in 12 of 18

Booker is a combo guard, but he took over primary point guard duties around the beginning of the month when Tyus Jones slid into a bench role.

So far in March, Booker has generated an average of 15.6 potential assists (i.e., passes that lead directly to a shot), per NBA.com’s tracking data. If that keeps up, the assists will follow.

Bucks vs. Suns predictions made at 12:30 p.m. ET 03/24/2025.

After a full weekend of March Madness, the NBA is back in the spotlight on Monday night with an eight-game slate.

The pregame narrative: I’ve got prop bets from three of tonight’s matchups, including a plus-money play on Luka Doncic. I also expect solid performances from Nikola Vucevic and Naji Marshall.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for March 24.

NBA prop bets

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Best Bet: Vucevic 10+ rebounds (-110)

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The Denver Nuggets are among the best rebounding teams in the NBA, ranking second in rebounding rate (52.0%) and sixth in opponent rebounds allowed (42.4/game).

But a key absence on the Nuggets’ side makes Vucevic a solid candidate to hit this rebounding milestone.

Denver head coach Michael Malone told reporters that Nikola Jokic, who’s missed four straight games with an ankle injury, is unlikely to play on Monday.

Given that Jokic averages 12.8 rebounds — and the next highest on the team is Michael Porter Jr. at 7.0 RPG — there should be plenty of vacated rebounds up for grabs … literally.

Vucevic averages 10.1 RPG, so this milestone is right in line with expectations.

And when he faced the Nuggets back in January, with a healthy Jokic on the floor, the Bulls’ big man grabbed 10 boards as part of a 20-point double-double.

Chicago and Denver both play at a frenetic pace, ranking third and sixth, respectively, in possessions per game.

With the prospect of an up-tempo game that doesn’t involve Jokic, I’m all over this prop for Vucevic.

Key stat: Vucevic has 10-plus rebounds in 41 of 63 games (65.1%) this season.

Best NBA picks

Doncic over 3.5 threes (+112): Remember that slow start to Doncic’s tenure with the Los Angeles Lakers? Yeah, that’s long gone.

When Doncic debuted for the Lakers in February, he wasn’t just acclimating to a new team. He was also getting his legs back under him after a six-week injury absence.

But February woes have given way to March wows:

• February (7 games): 21.0 PPG, 2.0 threes (8.3 attempts), 24.1 3PT%

• March (10 games): 31.1 PPG, 4.7 threes (11.0 attempts), 42.7 3PT%

The Orlando Magic have faced the fewest 3-point attempts per game this season (31.2), but Doncic is a volume shooter against everyone. While playing for Dallas earlier this season, he went 5-of-13 from deep against Orlando.

Also, the Magic struggle to defend the perimeter from an efficiency standpoint. They allow the sixth-highest 3PT% (36.8).

Marshall over 17.5 points (-127): A depleted Mavericks squad has put Naji Marshall into a starting role — and he’s thriving.

• In his past nine games (all starts), Marshall is averaging 22.7 PPG.

• He has 18+ points in nine of his past 10 games.

The fifth-year small forward isn’t much of a 3-point threat, but he doesn’t have to be against tonight’s opponent, the Brooklyn Nets.

Marshall ranks in the 89th percentile in mid-range shooting frequency and accuracy, per Cleaning the Glass. The Nets, meanwhile, allow the 10th-highest FG% on mid-range shots.

NBA prop picks made at 10:50 a.m. ET on 03/24/2025.