Sunday’s matchup between the San Antonio Spurs and Toronto Raptors is more about draft positioning than anything else.
The pregame narrative: Toronto is nearing the home stretch of its tank for a top pick, but the team’s no-quit attitude has me backing it to cover an alternate spread. Prop bets on RJ Barrett and Stephon Castle round out this +310 wager.
Check out my Spurs vs. Raptors SGP predictions for March 23.
Spurs vs. Raptors predictions
Parlay: Raptors +5.5 | Barrett 2+ threes | Booker 2+ threes (+310)
Raptors +5.5 (-265): Toronto is “back on track” heading down the home stretch.
The Raptors have lost three straight games following a three-game winning streak, though two of those defeats came by just three points.
That means Toronto has covered this number in nine of its last 10 games.
San Antonio had championship aspirations but those were lost after Victor Wembanyama and De’Aaron Fox suffered season-ending injuries.
The Spurs have won four of their last six, but two of those were against the injury-riddled Dallas Mavericks and Philadelphia 76ers.
Toronto has more of its stars playing than usual and is a deserved favourite on Sunday. Teasing the Raps through to a 5.5-point underdog seems pretty safe to me.
NBA SGP legs
Barrett 2+ threes (-125): Barrett is shooting a healthy 42.3% from beyond the arc in March and has a reliable floor as a 3-point shooter.
- 1+ threes in 21 straight games
- 2+ threes in 11 of those games
The Spurs are a miserable 29th in defensive rating since Wembanyama went down with an injury. In that span, opponents are shooting 37.4% from deep (seventh-highest mark in the NBA).
Barrett is averaging 2.1 threes on 39.1% shooting in 26 home games this year. He should have a soid opportunity to perform above that baseline against San Antonio.
Castle 20+ points (-165): The Spurs will be a force for years to come and Castle is the perfect No. 3 scoring option alongside Wembanyama and Fox.
And it’s been encouraging to see the 2024 No. 4 overall pick step it up in their absence.
Castle is averaging 20.4 PPG in March and has scored 20-plus in three of five games since Fox went down. In that span, he’s attempting 16.2 field goals per night — well north of his season-long average (11.3).
I love this play from a volume standpoint alone.
It also helps that the Raptors allow the sixth-most PPG to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros.
Spurs vs. Raptors predictions made at 12:30 p.m. ET 03/23/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.