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Spurs vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 4: Expect Wembanyama to connect from deep in +300 ticket

The Los Angeles Clippers host the San Antonio Spurs in a Western Conference showdown.

The pregame narrative: The Spurs have been getting better as the season progresses and I think they can keep this game close against the struggling Clippers. I’m adding in prop picks for Victor Wembanyama and James Harden to make up a +300 parlay for tonight’s game.

Check out my Spurs vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 4.

Spurs vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Spurs +6.5 + Wembanyama over 1.5 threes + Harden over 5.5 rebounds (+300)

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Spurs +6.5 (-165): The Clippers are ice-cold right now, losing three straight home games. They are still awaiting their first win in the new arena as this cold spell has led to an overall home record of 0-4.

L.A. is 1-5 against this spread and the Spurs are starting to figure things out.

San Antonio has won back-to-back games, with the most recent win coming against the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Spurs have covered this spread in four of six games, and the two exceptions were against the contending Dallas Mavericks (4-2) and Oklahoma City Thunder (6-0).

Buying a few extra points for the underdogs is a good way to fade the Clippers right now.

SGP legs

Wembanyama over 1.5 threes (-150): This isn’t a line Wembanyama has had much success against but the volume has been there.

The 7-foot-4 phenom has no business firing up so many threes but he’s a special talent and I don’t see him dialling it back anytime soon.

Wembanyama is just 9-for-41 (22.0%) from 3-point range this season but that means he’s averaging 6.8 attempts per game.

Last year, he was more efficient, hitting threes at a 32.5% clip, so I’m willing to chalk up his early struggles to a poor shooting streak. He’s attempted 20 threes over his past two games and the Clippers allow the most 3-pointers per game to centres (2.82).

Harden over 5.5 rebounds (-175): With the size of San Antonio’s backcourt, it’s no surprise that the Spurs allow a high number of rebounds to opposing point guards.

In fact, they allow the second most per game (8.47).

At 6-foot-5 and 220 pounds, Harden is on the bigger side among guards. That allows him to help out on the glass frequently. He’s averaging 8.8 rebounds this season and has cleared this line in five of six games.

Picks made at 12:09 p.m. on 11/04/24.

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Best NBA prop bets Nov. 4: Ride Paul George in 76ers debut

Every NBA team is in action on Monday ahead of a league-wide night off on Tuesday.

The pregame narrative: I’m targeting four players, including Paul George in his debut with the Philadelphia 76ers. I also have plays on Anthony Edwards, Tyrese Haliburton and Payton Pritchard.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 4.

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Best bet: Pritchard over 14.5 points (-114)

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Pritchard isn’t the biggest name among these four but I love the Boston Celtics guard to clear this line against the Atlanta Hawks.

Here’s why:

No. 2 scoring option Jaylen Brown is out
Atlanta allows the most PPG to point guards
Pritchard is averaging career highs in minutes and points

On top of that, he gets a Hawks team that’s surrendering over 120 points per game (28th in the NBA) and plays at a top-five pace.

Atlanta controlling pace for chunks of this game will lead to a lot of scoring opportunities for the Celtics, who are No. 1 in the NBA in offensive rating.

Pritchard’s volume is up considerably and Brown’s absence should keep the shots flowing.

Key stat: Powered by the long ball (4.1/game), Pritchard has dropped 15-plus points in five of seven contests.

Quick picks

George over 25.5 points/rebounds/assists (-114): The nine-time all-star has missed the 76ers’ first five games recovering from a knee injury.

It’s safe to assume he’ll be on a minutes restriction so there’s risk with betting on his player props. But I’ll take the risk on a light PRA line when he’s returning to a 76ers team that desperately needs him.

Philadelphia, without George and Joel Embiid, is 1-4 and fifth-worst in the NBA in scoring. The team only has three double-digit scorers and none of them have been efficient.

The 76ers should lean on George right away to help out Tyrese Maxey on the offensive end, and he thrived as a No. 2 scoring option during his time with the Los Angeles Clippers.

George averaged at least 21.0 PPG in all five seasons with the Clippers and 10-plus rebounds/assists. He can rebound and distribute and is a strong outside shooter.

His first game of the season comes on the road against the 5-1 Phoenix Suns.

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-129): Only four teams are allowing more points than the Charlotte Hornets, whom Edwards will see tonight.

The 23-year-old has been a menace from the perimeter, averaging an NBA-high 5.3 makes per game. He’s attempting 12.3, which puts him at the top alongside Charlotte’s LaMelo Ball.

Shooting 43.2% from deep — a career-best mark — we might not see Edwards’ long-range volume slow any time soon.

Edwards has topped this in five of six games and finished with three the one time he fell short. He should feast on Charlotte, which ranks last in the NBA in defensive rating.

Haliburton over 8.5 assists (-112): Tonight’s Indiana Pacers and Dallas Mavericks game has the highest total of Monday’s loaded slate.

Dallas has been excellent defensively but is on a back-to-back against a Pacers team that hasn’t played since Friday.

Haliburton only had 11 total assists in his first three games. But has has dished out 10-plus dimes in three games since.

The Pacers point guard averaged 10-plus assists in back-to-back seasons and 9.6 the year before that.

He topped this number both times he played Dallas last season and had at least nine assists in 50 of his 69 games.

Picks made at 12:57 p.m. on 11/04/2024.

Raptors vs. Nuggets props Nov. 4: Nikola Jokic should put on a show in Denver

For the second consecutive Monday, the Toronto Raptors face the Denver Nuggets.

The pregame narrative: Last week, Nikola Jokic filled the net against Toronto in an overtime win. I like Jokic to put up big numbers at home tonight, while Raptors point guard Davion Mitchell has some solid value on his assists prop.

Check out my Raptors vs. Nuggets props for Nov. 4.

Raptors vs. Nuggets props

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Best Bet: Jokic over 39.5 points/assists (-112)

Scoring depth has been a significant issue for the Nuggets so far. They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage (51.2%), and none of their bench players average more than 8.8 points per game.

What does that mean for Jokic? A much heartier shot volume than he’s accustomed to in order to pick up the slack.

So far this year, Jokic is trending toward career-highs in shots (19.3/game), attempted threes (4.5/game) and points (29.8/game).

For a guy who ranks 10th all-time in eFG% (59.2), an uptick in volume has a particularly strong correlation to an uptick in production.

I’m skeptical of Jokic keeping up this shooting pace all year, but it feels like a necessity right now for a Nuggets team that’s trying to figure out where else to draw offence from. That’ll be especially tricky tonight with Jamal Murray (concussion) on the sideline.

Jokic dropped 40 points on the Raptors last week and added four assists, but I could see him taking on a greater responsibility as a passer with Murray out.

Over his past five games, Jokic has cleared this number four times while averaging 32.6 points and 9.2 assists.

Key stat: Since the start of last year, Jokic has gone over 39.5 PA in 13 of 22 games without Murray.

Quick pick

Mitchell over 6.5 assists (+110): This is a great spot to target Mitchell, who’s playing big minutes as the Raptors’ starting point guard.

Over his past five games, Mitchell has averaged 7.4 assists on 32.1 minutes of action. He’s tallied at least five assists in each of those matchups and cashed this bet three times.

Mitchell fell just short of this line when he last faced the Nuggets, finishing with six assists to go with a season-high 16 points. He was feeling himself as a shooter that night (5-of-10, including 3-of-6 from deep), so maybe he’ll be more keen to pass if the shots aren’t dropping this time around.

Denver has allowed the most assists per game to opponents this season (29.7), as well as the third-most assists to point guards (11.3), per Betting Pros.

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET 11/04/2024.

Raptors vs. Nuggets props Nov. 4: Nikola Jokic should put on a show in Denver

For the second consecutive Monday, the Toronto Raptors face the Denver Nuggets.

The pregame narrative: Last week, Nikola Jokic filled the net against Toronto in an overtime win. I like Jokic to put up big numbers at home tonight, while Raptors point guard Davion Mitchell has some solid value on his assists prop.

Check out my Raptors vs. Nuggets props for Nov. 4.

Raptors vs. Nuggets props

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Best Bet: Jokic over 38.5 points/assists (-121)

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Scoring depth has been a significant issue for the Nuggets so far. They rank 25th in effective field goal percentage (51.2%), and none of their bench players average more than 8.8 points per game.

What does that mean for Jokic? A much heartier shot volume than he’s accustomed to in order to pick up the slack.

So far this year, Jokic is trending toward career-highs in shots (19.3/game), attempted threes (4.5/game) and points (29.8/game).

For a guy who ranks 10th all-time in eFG% (59.2), an uptick in volume has a particularly strong correlation to an uptick in production.

I’m skeptical of Jokic keeping up this shooting pace all year, but it feels like a necessity right now for a Nuggets team that’s trying to figure out where else to draw offence from. That’ll be especially tricky tonight with Jamal Murray (concussion) on the sideline.

Jokic dropped 40 points on the Raptors last week and added four assists, but I could see him taking on a greater responsibility as a passer with Murray out.

Over his past five games, Jokic has cleared this number four times while averaging 32.6 points and 9.2 assists.

Key stat: Since the start of last year, Jokic has gone over 38.5 PA in 13 of 22 games without Murray.

Quick pick

Mitchell over 6.5 assists (+115): This is a great spot to target Mitchell, who’s playing big minutes as the Raptors’ starting point guard.

Over his past five games, Mitchell has averaged 7.4 assists on 32.1 minutes of action. He’s tallied at least five assists in each of those matchups and cashed this bet three times.

Mitchell fell just short of this line when he last faced the Nuggets, finishing with six assists to go with a season-high 16 points. He was feeling himself as a shooter that night (5-of-10, including 3-of-6 from deep), so maybe he’ll be more keen to pass if the shots aren’t dropping this time around.

Denver has allowed the most assists per game to opponents this season (29.7), as well as the third-most assists to point guards (11.3), per Betting Pros.

Picks made at 12:20 p.m. ET 11/04/2024.

Magic vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions Nov. 3: Back Dallas, Doncic at +300

The Paolo Banchero-less Orlando Magic travel to Dallas to take on the Mavericks tonight.

The pregame narrative: With Orlando missing its best player I expect Dallas to pick up a win on home court. Prop bets on Luka Doncic and Franz Wagner round out this +300 SGP.

Check out my Magic vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 3.

Magic vs. Mavericks predictions

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Parlay: Mavericks moneyline + Doncic over 2.5 threes + Wagner over 19.5 points (+300)

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Mavericks moneyline (-250): Banchero was lighting the league on fire before suffering an oblique tear on Wednesday, averaging 29.0 points 8.8 rebounds and 5.6 assists on 49.5% shooting.

His 31.1% usage rate was the 15-highest in the NBA and that type of production is impossible to replace.

I think Wagner can chip in (more on that later) but will fade Orlando against the reigning Western Conference champs in Dallas.

The Mavericks are 3-2 and have a relatively clean bill of health with their Big Three of Doncic, Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson all available.

Orlando has gotten torched from beyond the arc this year and that trio should make it pay.

SGP legs

Doncic over 2.5 threes (-155): How bad has the Magic been at defending the deep ball? Opponents are connecting at a 38.3% clip so far which is the fifth-highest rate in the NBA.

That’s a massive shock considering Orlando held opponents to the sixth-lowest rate last year.

Doncic doesn’t have as big a piece of the pie as he did last year but he’s still attempting a healthy 9.6 three-pointers a night, clearing this mark in three of five games.

Last year, he went over 2.5 threes in 54 of 70 games (77.1%).

If Luka stays anywhere near his current volume I love his chances of having a night.

Wagner over 19.5 points (-152): Wagner is going to have to elevate his game with Banchero sidelined and this is a good matchup for him to succeed.

The German forward is averaging 17.7 points on 49.4% shooting, clearing this total in three of six games. He went under this line in the first game without Banchero but put up 19 shots which is the type of volume I like to see.

The Mavericks have allowed the seventh-most PPG to opposing power forwards (25.97), according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 11:25 a.m. on 11/03/24.

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Best NBA prop bets Nov. 3: Back Wagner, Cunningham and Risacher on Sunday

I have one NBA prop bet from each of Sunday’s games.

The pregame narrative: First up, Cade Cunningham is in a good spot to rack up assists against the Brooklyn Nets. After that, I like Franz Wagner and Zaccharie Risacher to fill the basket.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 3.

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Best bet: Wagner over 20.5 points (-118)

Paolo Banchero was off to a red-hot start before tearing his oblique against the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.

It’s a devastating loss for the Orlando Magic but is also an opportunity for other players on the roster to step up.

Wagner is the team’s No. 3 scorer (behind Banchero and Jalen Suggs) and will need to be at his best for the Magic to keep pace with the Eastern Conference’s top teams.

He is putting up 17.7 points on 49.4% shooting, clearing this total in three of six games.

In Orlando’s first game without Banchero, Wagner dropped 17 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers. It wasn’t an eye-popping performance by any means but Wagner took 19 shots, and that type of volume is what I love to see.

Moreover, Cleveland is one of the league’s best defensive units, ranking fourth in defensive rating. Dallas is a respectable 13th but has gotten torched by power forwards so far.

Key stat: The Mavericks have allowed the seventh-most PPG to opposing power forwards (25.97), according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Cunningham over 6.5 assists (-163): You have to be a real basketball sicko to earnestly tune into today’s Detroit Pistons vs. Brooklyn Nets game.

With that said, Cunningham has a nice chance to smash this total.

Detroit’s point guard is averaging 7.2 assists per night and has put up at least six assists in every game. He has an extremely high floor as a passer and now gets one of the league’s worst teams.

Brooklyn is off to a 3-3 start, ranking 19th in defensive rating. But the squad finished 18 games below .500 last year so I won’t let this decent start fool me.

Risacher over 1.5 threes (-108): Atlanta finished 36-46 last season and had a 3.0% chance of nabbing the first overall pick in the draft. It did and the reward was Risacher.

The Frenchman has had some tough games so far but I like his chances of performing tonight.

New Orleans hasn’t been able to defend the 3-point line at all so far, allowing opponents to connect at a 38.2% clip from deep (sixth-highest in NBA).

Risacher has only cleared this line once so far but he’s attempting 4.5 a night, so I’ll bank on an improvement.

Picks made at 9:45 a.m. on 11/02/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 3: Back Wagner, Cunningham and Risacher on Sunday

I have one NBA prop bet from each of Sunday’s games.

The pregame narrative: First up, Cade Cunningham is in a good spot to rack up assists against the Brooklyn Nets. After that, I like Franz Wagner and Zaccharie Risacher to fill the basket.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 3.

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Best bet: Wagner over 19.5 points (-139)

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Paolo Banchero was off to a red-hot start before tearing his oblique against the Chicago Bulls on Wednesday.

It’s a devastating loss for the Orlando Magic but is also an opportunity for other players on the roster to step up.

Wagner is the team’s No. 3 scorer (behind Banchero and Jalen Suggs) and will need to be at his best for the Magic to keep pace with the Eastern Conference’s top teams.

He is putting up 17.7 points on 49.4% shooting, clearing this total in three of six games.

In Orlando’s first game without Banchero, Wagner dropped 17 points against the Cleveland Cavaliers. It wasn’t an eye-popping performance by any means but Wagner took 19 shots, and that type of volume is what I love to see.

Moreover, Cleveland is one of the league’s best defensive units, ranking fourth in defensive rating. Dallas is a respectable 13th but has gotten torched by power forwards so far.

Key stat: The Mavericks have allowed the seventh-most PPG to opposing power forwards (25.97), according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick picks

Cunningham over 7.5 assists (+116): You have to be a real basketball sicko to earnestly tune into today’s Detroit Pistons vs. Brooklyn Nets game.

With that said, Cunningham has a nice chance to smash this total.

Detroit’s point guard is averaging 7.2 assists per night and has put up at least six assists in every game. He has an extremely high floor as a passer and now gets one of the league’s worst teams.

Brooklyn is off to a 3-3 start, ranking 19th in defensive rating. But the squad finished 18 games below .500 last year so I won’t let this decent start fool me.

Risacher over 1.5 threes (-106): Atlanta finished 36-46 last season and had a 3.0% chance of nabbing the first overall pick in the draft. It did and the reward was Risacher.

The Frenchman has had some tough games so far but I like his chances of performing tonight.

New Orleans hasn’t been able to defend the 3-point line at all so far, allowing opponents to connect at a 38.2% clip from deep (sixth-highest in NBA).

Risacher has only cleared this line once so far but he’s attempting 4.5 a night, so I’ll bank on an improvement.

Picks made at 9:45 a.m. on 11/02/2024.

Hawks vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions Nov. 3: Fade Zion Williamson and back Atlanta at +310

The Atlanta Hawks have a date with the New Orleans Pelicans on Sunday.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta has dropped four straight but I expect it to cover a hefty alternate spread tonight. Additionally, bet on 2024 No. 1 pick Zaccharie Risacher from deep and fade a teased-up Zion Williamson point total.

Check out my Hawks vs. Pelicans same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 3.

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Parlay: Hawks +10.5 + Risacher over 1.5 threes + Williamson under 30.5 points (+290)

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Hawks +10.5 (-278): Tonight seems like a prime spot to back the struggling Hawks.

The Pelicans will be without three guards (C.J. McCollum, Trey Murphy III, Dejounte Murray) due to injury which severely hampers their perimeter offence.

Atlanta has been a disaster defending the deep ball, allowing opponents to shoot a league-high 41.0% from beyond the arc. Zion barely shoots from deep and Ingram only averages 6.2 attempts per game, preferring to attack from the midrange or at the rim.

The Hawks have been great at defending that area of the court, allowing the sixth-fewest paint points per game.

Atlanta is 4-2 against this line despite its 2-4 record while New Orleans is 1-5 against a -10.5 spread.

SGP legs

Risacher over 1.5 threes (-106): Atlanta fell backwards into the No. 1 pick and Risacher last year by winning the draft lottery with just a 3.0% chance.

The rookie has had an up-and-down start to his career, as expected, but tonight should be a good matchup for the Frenchman.

Like Atlanta, New Orleans’ 3-point line has been open season as opponents are connecting at a 38.2% clip (sixth-highest in NBA).

Risacher has only cleared this line in one of six games and was 1-for-6 from deep his last time out but he’s attempting 4.5 a night and should keep firing.

Williamson under 30.5 points (-177): We already talked about Atlanta’s ability to defend the paint, which has me looking to fade Zion on an alternate total.

The big man is coming off a 34-point outing against the Indiana Pacers but they’re one of the league’s worst defensive units. Before that, he was 1-3 against this line, failing to crack 20 points in each of those games.

Williamson is shooting just 44.2% from the field so far and Atlanta would be wise to focus its energy on stopping him tonight.

Picks made at 8:49 a.m. on 11/03/24.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 2: Fade Wembanyama, ride with Poole amid hot streak

My three NBA prop bets for Saturday night feature Victor Wembanyama, Jordan Poole and Keyonte George.

The pregame narrative: Poole has been shooting a lot — and scoring plenty — from deep. George also has encouraging shot volume, but the results haven’t come yet. As for Wembanyama, I think tonight is a good opportunity to fade him as a rebounder.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 2.

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Best bet: Poole over 3.5 threes (-130)

Poole is a textbook heat-check guy. And right now he’s on fire.

At 25, Poole is the sage veteran surrounded by youngsters in the Washington Wizards’ backcourt. So far, that has meant he’s left to his own devices when chucking deep shots.

Poole has attempted 35 threes already through just four games, and 20 of them have found twine. That’s a 57.1% 3-point percentage, which is unsustainable.

But the superb start should encourage Poole to keep shooting. And tonight’s matchup makes that proposition even more compelling.

Poole’s Wizards host the Miami Heat, a team that seems content with daring its opponents to shoot from beyond the arc. Bold strategy.

Here’s where the Heat rank in terms of opponent 3-point shooting:

15.8 made threes/game (29th)
42.0 attempted threes/game (29th)
37.5 3PT% (20th)

Take Poole, who’s shooting confidently from beyond the arc, and put him up against a team that struggles mightily to defend from deep. Sounds like a winning combo to me.

Poole has gone over 3.5 threes in all four games this year, and I think he’ll add to that streak tonight.

Key stat: Miami has allowed 5.5 made threes per game to opposing shooting guards, per Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Wembanyama under 10.5 rebounds (-118): I probably won’t make a habit of fading Wembanyama’s rebounds prop at this number, but I think it makes sense tonight.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a trio of frontcourt guys who have enough size to contend with the 7-foot-4, 209-pound centre. None of Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid or Julius Randle are as tall as Wemby, but they all have at least 40 pounds on him.

Last year, Wemby went under 10.5 rebounds in three of four matchups against Minnesota.

And so far this season, the reigning Rookie of the Year has hit the under in four of five games.

George over 17.5 points (-108): This is a volume play on a guy who’s trying to shoot through a slump.

George, a second-year guard, has a 28.0% FG rate so far through five games. He’s averaging 13.2 points on 15.0 shots per game.

Those are awful, awful numbers. But the shot volume is what I’m eyeing. If he keeps that pace, this point total should be attainable every night.

On Saturday, George’s Utah Jazz are catching the Denver Nuggets on the latter half of a back-to-back. Denver, which lost in Minnesota last night, has allowed 118.8 points per game this season (23rd in the NBA).

The last time George played in Denver was in March of last season. He finished with 29 points on 10-of-17 shooting.

Picks made at 1:10 p.m. on 11/02/2024.

Thunder vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 2: Back Harden, fade Gilgeous-Alexander in +290 SGP

The Oklahoma City Thunder and Los Angeles Clippers played three high-scoring matchups last year, but I’m expecting something different in their first meeting of 2024-25.

The pregame narrative: A teased-up under is one component of my +290 SGP for Saturday night’s game. I also like James Harden to continue firing as a scorer and for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander to go under his assist total.

Check out my Thunder vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 2.

Thunder vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Under 227.5 points + Harden over 21.5 points + Gilgeous-Alexander under 6.5 assists (+290)

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Under 227.5 points (-220): The Clippers and Thunder went above this total in all three matchups last year, but some key contributors from those games won’t be on the court tonight.

Kawhi Leonard (knee) is still out, while Paul George is now employed by the Philadelphia 76ers. Offence has been a challenge for L.A., a team that ranks 21st in offensive rating and 20th in points per game.

OKC’s offence has been sharper, but it also has the No. 1 defensive rating in the NBA. L.A. ranks No. 7 in defensive rating, so I think that aspect of the matchup will win out.

The under is a combined 6-4 in OKC and L.A.’s games this season.

SGP legs

Harden over 21.5 points (-157): Even if this game isn’t an offensive masterclass, Harden should be able to get his.

In a Big Three with Leonard and George last year, Harden didn’t have as many opportunities to put up shots. But the Clippers are decidedly Harden’s team right now, and he’s taking advantage on the offensive end.

The three-time scoring champ has averaged 23.8 PPG on 19.0 shots.

Here’s one way to frame it: Harden only averaged 11.4 total shots last year, and he’s averaging 9.4 3-point shots so far in the new season.

Harden has cleared this total in four of five games.

Gilgeous-Alexander under 6.5 assists (-200): Gilgeous-Alexander isn’t a selfish star, but he’s not a high-volume passer, either. He set a career-high in assists per game last year with 6.2.

This isn’t a matchup where I expect SGA to have an outsized assist total. L.A. has allowed the third-fewest assists per game this year, per NBA.com.

Dating back to October 2022, SGA has gone under 6.5 assists in five of his past six matchups against the Clippers. And he’s hit the under in three of his past four games this season.

Picks made at 12:55 p.m. on 11/02/24.