Category: NBA

My three NBA prop bets for Saturday night feature Victor Wembanyama, Jordan Poole and Keyonte George.

The pregame narrative: Poole has been shooting a lot — and scoring plenty — from deep. George also has encouraging shot volume, but the results haven’t come yet. As for Wembanyama, I think tonight is a good opportunity to fade him as a rebounder.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 2.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Poole over 3.5 threes (-121)

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Poole is a textbook heat-check guy. And right now he’s on fire.

At 25, Poole is the sage veteran surrounded by youngsters in the Washington Wizards’ backcourt. So far, that has meant he’s left to his own devices when chucking deep shots.

Poole has attempted 35 threes already through just four games, and 20 of them have found twine. That’s a 57.1% 3-point percentage, which is unsustainable.

But the superb start should encourage Poole to keep shooting. And tonight’s matchup makes that proposition even more compelling.

Poole’s Wizards host the Miami Heat, a team that seems content with daring its opponents to shoot from beyond the arc. Bold strategy.

Here’s where the Heat rank in terms of opponent 3-point shooting:

• 15.8 made threes/game (29th)
• 42.0 attempted threes/game (29th)
• 37.5 3PT% (20th)

Take Poole, who’s shooting confidently from beyond the arc, and put him up against a team that struggles mightily to defend from deep. Sounds like a winning combo to me.

Poole has gone over 3.5 threes in all four games this year, and I think he’ll add to that streak tonight.

Key stat: Miami has allowed 5.5 made threes per game to opposing shooting guards, per Betting Pros.

Quick picks

Wembanyama under 10.5 rebounds (-110): I probably won’t make a habit of fading Wembanyama’s rebounds prop at this number, but I think it makes sense tonight.

The Minnesota Timberwolves have a trio of frontcourt guys who have enough size to contend with the 7-foot-4, 209-pound centre. None of Rudy Gobert, Naz Reid or Julius Randle are as tall as Wemby, but they all have at least 40 pounds on him.

Last year, Wemby went under 10.5 rebounds in three of four matchups against Minnesota.

And so far this season, the reigning Rookie of the Year has hit the under in four of five games.

George over 17.5 points (-120): This is a volume play on a guy who’s trying to shoot through a slump.

George, a second-year guard, has a 28.0% FG rate so far through five games. He’s averaging 13.2 points on 15.0 shots per game.

Those are awful, awful numbers. But the shot volume is what I’m eyeing. If he keeps that pace, this point total should be attainable every night.

On Saturday, George’s Utah Jazz are catching the Denver Nuggets on the latter half of a back-to-back. Denver, which lost in Minnesota last night, has allowed 118.8 points per game this season (23rd in the NBA).

The last time George played in Denver was in March of last season. He finished with 29 points on 10-of-17 shooting.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 11/02/2024.

After a fourth consecutive loss last night, the Toronto Raptors host the Sacramento Kings on a back-to-back on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has fared well against the spread as an underdog, but I like Sacramento on a teased-down line tonight. RJ Barrett’s hot shooting start is worth tapping into, while Domantas Sabonis is the latest big man the Raptors will try to contain on the glass.

Check out my Kings vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 2.

Kings vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Kings -4.5 + Barrett over 1.5 threes + Sabonis under 14.5 rebounds (+375)

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Kings -4.5 (-182): The Raptors are modestly exceeding expectations so far, and by that I mean they’re losing consistently but covering a lot of underdog spreads.

Toronto is 1-5 on the season — starting with a 30-point blowout loss on opening night — but the team is 5-1 ATS. With that in mind, I almost teased up the Raptors’ spread (-7.5) by a few points.

But the ATS win streak is bound to end at some point, and I see at least as much merit in buying a few points on the Kings’ side. Sacramento is 26-18-1 ATS as a road team since the start of last year, which is the fourth-best rate in the NBA in that span, per Team Rankings.

The Kings are 2-0-1 ATS as favourites so far. The Raptors have only covered a +4.5 spread in two of six games.

SGP legs

Barrett over 1.5 threes (-157): It’s only been a few games, but when the Raptors have needed a spark from 3-point range, Barrett has been the one providing it.

The Mississauga-born shooting guard is 9-for-17 (52.9%) beyond the arc through three games, cashing this bet each time.

Though he’s never been a high-volume shooter from deep, Barrett has averaged 1.7 made threes on 35.2% shooting since the 2020-21 season. He’s off to a great start right now on a team that’s collectively shooting 31.5% from deep … so why not keep firing?

Sacramento has allowed the fifth-most 3-point attempts to opponents this season (40.8/game), which suggests Barrett will see enough opportunities to hit this over.

Sabonis under 14.5 rebounds (-155): Sabonis led the NBA with a whopping 13.7 rebounds per game last year, so he’s more than capable of selling this parlay with a big night on the glass.

But until further notice, I like fading opposing big men against the Raptors when they have sky-high rebounding totals.

Toronto hasn’t allowed anyone to go over 14.5 rebounds this year, and only one player even got to 14. Players to go below that total include Nikola Jokic, Anthony Davis and Rudy Gobert.

The Raptors have allowed the second-fewest rebounds so far, and they have the league’s highest rebounding rate (54.7%).

Sabonis hasn’t gone over this number yet this season and likely won’t tonight. Also, since the start of last year, he’s finished under 14.5 rebounds in 12 of 16 games on zero rest.

Picks made at 9:05 a.m. on 11/02/24.

LeBron James and the Los Angeles Lakers visit Scotiabank Arena tonight to face the Toronto Raptors.

The pregame narrative: Scottie Barnes’ absence changes some things for the Raptors, and it should mean RJ Barrett takes on greater offensive responsibilities. I’m backing Barrett tonight while fading Anthony Davis on the glass.

Check out my Lakers vs. Raptors props for Nov. 1.

Lakers vs. Raptors props

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Best Bet: Davis under 13.5 rebounds (-130)

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Davis is among the best rebounders in the NBA, averaging 12.5 RPG in 2022-23 and 12.6 RPG last year. But even for him, this is a sizeable number to clear.

The Raptors, believe it or not, have been in junkyard dog mode on the glass so far. They have the highest rebounding rate in the NBA (55.3%), as well as the second-highest offensive rebound rate (40.2%).

It’s only been five games, so things can change. But for now, the group has plenty of on-the-glass contributors, as eight players are averaging at least 3.5 RPG.

Jakob Poeltl leads the way (12.6 RPG), and at 7 feet and 245 pounds, he at least has the size to contend with Davis down low.

Barnes’ absence won’t help Toronto, but again, there are a lot of depth rebounders — like Bruno Fernando, Chris Boucher and Ochai Agbaji — who are putting in work.

Another factor to consider is that Davis might see a reduced workload if the game gets out of hand. Los Angeles is an 8.5-point favourite, and Davis is listed on the injury report as “probable” with right hip soreness.

Also, AD went under this number in both matchups against Toronto last year — and those came without Poeltl on the floor.

Key stat: Through five games, only one player has gone over 13.5 rebounds against the Raptors (Charlotte’s Nick Richards, 14). Players such as Nikola Jokic, Rudy Gobert and Jarrett Allen all went under.

Quick pick

Barrett over 30.5 points/assists (-113): With Barnes out for a few weeks and Immanuel Quickley still doubtful to play, the floor should be wide open for Barrett to claim alpha dog status in Toronto.

The Mississauga native dealt with an injury of his own through training camp and missed the first three games. But he’s responded well since then.

Barrett had 20 points and three assists (29 minutes) in his season debut on Monday. Two nights later, he posted 31 points and eight assists in 33 minutes.

Keep in mind that Barnes didn’t play Wednesday, which gave Barrett more opportunities to facilitate while maintaining a healthy shot volume.

Since joining the Raptors, Barrett has averaged 30.1 points/assists in 10 games without Barnes. He’s cashed this prop in four of his past seven.

It’s a small sample, but the Lakers are allowing the fourth-most assists per game so far, which is why I like that component in a combo prop.

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 11/01/2024.