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Best NBA prop bets Oct. 30: Back James Harden from deep vs. Trail Blazers

I’m recommending two players on the prop market for tonight’s 11-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: I like James Harden to make it rain from deep and Wendell Carter Jr. to clean up on the glass.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 30.

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Best bet: Harden over 2.5 threes (+100)

The Los Angeles Clippers star has fallen under this number in all three games.

That said, Harden is chucking the ball from deep and is back in score-first mode as the No. 1 option with Kawhi Leonard out.

The veteran guard has the ball in his hands a lot — he’s third in the NBA in usage — and is averaging 8.7 attempts per game. We have to go back to the 2019-20 season for the last time Harden had that volume.

While he’s been cold, hitting just 19.2% of his shots from deep, he’s averaging 37.7 minutes a game. As long as Harden is on the court and hoisting 3-point shots without another alpha playing alongside him, I’ll target him at this number.

Tonight he gets the Portland Trail Blazers, who have allowed opponents to shoot a healthy 37.5% from distance early on.

Quick pick

Carter over 9.5 rebounds (-134): The Orlando Magic centre gets the team that drafted him tonight: the Chicago Bulls.

Carter isn’t a big offensive piece but he’s the team’s best rebounder and has started the season with four consecutive double-digit rebounding games.

Only nine players are averaging more than his 11.3 per game.

After seeing his minutes dwindle last year, he’s just up over 30.0 minutes a night for the first time in his career. It’s a sizeable jump from the 25.6 he logged a season ago when he averaged a career-low rounding total (6.5).

Carter averaged at least 8.5 rebounds in three of the four prior years and Orlando has been significantly better on the glass than Chicago.

Picks made at 2:44 p.m. on 10/30/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Oct. 30: Back James Harden and Austin Reaves on Wednesday night

I’m recommending three players on the prop market for tonight’s 11-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: I like Austin Reaves to fill the stat sheet, James Harden to make it rain from deep and Wendell Carter Jr. to clean up on the glass.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 30.

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Best bet: Reaves over 26.5 points/rebounds/assists (-125)

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Reaves is cooking, carrying a significant offensive load through four games and receiving heavy minutes.

The fourth-year guard is getting 36.0 minutes of run a night, leading to a scoring average of 19.3 points.

That’s third on L.A. right behind LeBron James, who plays his hometown Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

Reaves is contributing across the board in addition to scoring at an efficient rate (54.7% from the field, 48.0% from deep), averaging 7.0 rebounds and 5.3 assists.

He cleared this number in three games and landed on 25 in the other, which was Los Angeles’ season opener.

Anthony Davis is a complete wrecking ball right now, averaging 32.8 points on 55.0% shooting.

His usage rate is above 30% for the first time as a Laker, and his ability to efficiently score at large volumes should help Laker ball distributors — like Reaves — pile up assists.

The Cavaliers are a strong defensive team, but I still like this line considering the floor time Reaves is getting.

Key stat: Reaves is averaging 31.6 PRA per game.

Quick pick

Harden over 2.5 threes (-107): The Los Angeles Clippers star has fallen under this number in all three games.

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That said, Harden is chucking the ball from deep and is back in score-first mode as the No. 1 option with Kawhi Leonard out.

The veteran guard has the ball in his hands a lot — he’s third in the NBA in usage — and is averaging 8.7 attempts per game. We have to go back to the 2019-20 season for the last time Harden had that volume.

While he’s been cold, hitting just 19.2% of his shots from deep, he’s averaging 37.7 minutes a game. As long as Harden is on the court and hoisting 3-point shots without another alpha playing alongside him, I’ll target him at this number.

Tonight he gets the Portland Trail Blazers, who have allowed opponents to shoot a healthy 37.5% from distance early on.

Carter over 9.5 rebounds (-124): The Orlando Magic centre gets the team that drafted him tonight: the Chicago Bulls.

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Carter isn’t a big offensive piece but he’s the team’s best rebounder and has started the season with four consecutive double-digit rebounding games.

Only nine players are averaging more than his 11.3 per game.

After seeing his minutes dwindle last year, he’s just up over 30.0 minutes a night for the first time in his career. It’s a sizeable jump from the 25.6 he logged a season ago when he averaged a career-low rounding total (6.5).

Carter averaged at least 8.5 rebounds in three of the four prior years and Orlando has been significantly better on the glass than Chicago.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 10/30/2024.

Raptors vs. Hornets same-game parlay predictions Oct. 30: Back Toronto ATS, LaMelo Ball at +320

The Toronto Raptors hit the road without Scottie Barnes to play the Charlotte Hornets on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: Barnes left Monday’s contest against the Denver Nuggets with an eye injury and is out but I still like Toronto to cover as road underdogs. Prop bets on LaMelo Ball and Ochai Agbaji round out this +320 SGP.

Check out my Raptors vs. Hornets same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 30.

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Parlay: Raptors +6.5 + Ball over 24.5 points + Agbaji over 9.5 points (+320)

Raptors +6.5 (-113): Barnes is Toronto’s best player but let’s not forget who the Raptors are dealing with here.

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The Hornets went 21-61 last season and 27-55 the year before that. They’ve only been home favourites 14 times in that span but are 4-10 ATS in those games, according to Team Rankings.

Toronto might feel like a sideshow at times but Charlotte is a legitimate circus.

Brandon Miller and Mark Williams are out, representing two notable losses for the home team.

The Hornets are 1-2 on the season and 0-3 against this line. Don’t expect them to blow out the Raptors today.

SGP legs

Ball over 24.5 points (-230): No matter what happens, Ball is going to get his shots up.

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The fifth-year guard has averaged 19.7 field goal attempts over the last two seasons and is at 20.7 through three games this year (while averaging 31.7 points and going 3-0 against this line).

Ball loves to let it fly from deep (he’s averaging 12.0 3PA per game), which is a boon for any over bettor.

The Raptors had the sixth-highest opponent 3-point percentage last year (39.7) and currently have the fifth-highest through the first week of the season (39.7).

Agbaji over 10.5 points (-162): Agbaji could be a nice reclamation project for Darko Rajakovic and the Raptors.

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The Kansas product won the 2022 NCAA Final Four Most Outstanding Player and was drafted 14th overall by the Utah Jazz that year.

He wasn’t a game-changer in Salt Lake City but has been on a solid run for Toronto in his third year as a pro.

Agbaji is averaging 12.3 points on 58.8% shooting, clearing this line in three straight games.

He put up 19 points against the Minnesota Timberwolves on Saturday and 15 against the Denver Nuggets on Monday, attempting 12 field goals in each contest.

Those are two respectable teams — Charlotte is not. Agbaji has earned more playing time and I like his chances of having another solid game.

Picks made at 10:03 a.m. on 10/30/24.

Best NBA prop bets Oct. 29: Domantas Sabonis and Donte DiVincenzo

Domantas Sabonis is featured as the top NBA prop pick for Tuesday’s four-game slate.

The pregame narrative: I like Sabonis to perform on the back-to-back and also have a play on Donte DiVincenzo.

Check out these NBA prop bets for Oct. 29.

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Best Bet: Sabonis over 30.5 points/rebounds (-118)

Sabonis scored a season-low 16 points last night after exploding for 24-plus in each of the Sacramento Kings’ first two games.

He was an efficient 5-for-8 from the field and made a three for the third straight contest, a new wrinkle he looks to have added to his game.

The Kings centre also corralled a season-high 13 rebounds, falling just short of this line despite the low shot volume.

Sabonis had 32 points/rebounds in the season opener and followed it up with 41.

While Sabonis has been out on the perimeter more, he’s still primarily an interior scorer. He’s efficient in the paint and cleans up on the glass, creating putback opportunities that can help us in multiple ways with this market.

Tonight, he has a great matchup against the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz have been pounded in the paint through three games (all losses) while giving up an average of 121.0 points per contest. That ranks 27th in the NBA.

Last season, the Jazz were last in the NBA in defensive rating. The 28-year-old Sabonis averaged 30.8 points/rebounds in three matchups against them.

Key stat: Sabonis has averaged at least 31.0 points/rebounds in each of the last four seasons.

Quick pick

DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes (-112): The sharpshooter is 1-2 against this line through three games with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

But even in a reserve role, he’s averaging the same shot volume he did with the New York Knicks when he started 63 of 81 games during the 2023-24 campaign.

DiVincenzo averaged a career-best 3.5 threes per game last season and is hoisting over 8.0 attempts for the second straight year.

He topped this line in 64% of his games last season. And he drilled five-plus in both matchups versus tonight’s opponent, the Dallas Mavericks.

DiVincenzo was 4-of-11 from long range in his last game in a season-low 23 minutes.

Picks made at 10:38 a.m. on 10/29/2024.

Pelicans vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions Oct. 29: Back NOLA, Ingram at +310

The New Orleans Pelicans take on the Steph Curry-less Golden State Warriors in San Francisco tonight.

The pregame narrative: Without Curry in the lineup, I expect New Orleans to at least cover a teased-up spread. Prop bets on Brandon Ingram and Trayce Jackson-Davis round out this +310 SGP.

Check out my Pelicans vs. Warriors same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 29.

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Parlay: Pelicans +4.5 + Ingram over 19.5 points + Jackson-Davis over 5.5 rebounds (+310)

Pelicans +4.5 (-250): Curry might be in his 16th season but he’s still undoubtedly the best player on the Warriors. There’s no excuse for the Pelicans to leave Chase Center without a win tonight, but bank a few points with them just to be safe.

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New Orleans is missing Trey Murphy III but still has its top dogs available with Ingram, Zion Williamson and CJ McCollum. That’s a competent trio that should completely dictate the pace.

Last year, the Pelicans went 33-22 when Zion and Ingram played, according to StatMuse.

Golden State, meanwhile, went 3-5 without Curry with wins over the Utah Jazz (twice) and San Antonio Spurs. Those are two of the worst teams in basketball and I don’t trust Golden State to perform against a playoff-calibre team like New Orleans.

SGP legs

Ingram over 19.5 points (+105): This should be a dream matchup for Ingram.

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Golden State was one of the worst teams at defending the midrange last season, according to Cleaning the Glass. It allowed opponents to shoot 46.2% from that area of the court, which ranked 28th in front of only the Miami Heat and Indiana Pacers.

Ingram loves to take shots from there and has ranked in the 98th percentile or higher for midrange shooting frequency over the last three seasons.

The veteran small forward hasn’t been at his best to start the season but still cleared this line in two of three games while shooting 46.7% from the field.

He’s also averaging a team-high 20.0 field goal attempts per game, which I love to see.

Jackson-Davis over 5.5 rebounds (-200): I’m expecting big things out of Jackson-Davis in his sophomore season.

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The Indiana product split time between the Warriors and their G-League affiliate last year but caught fire down the stretch.

He started the final 11 games as a rookie, clearing this total nine times while averaging 7.7 boards per game.

TJD has gone under this mark in two of three games to start this season, but this teased-down line shouldn’t be too much to ask.

Picks made at 10:13 a.m. on 10/29/24.

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Best NBA prop bets Oct. 29: Back Sabonis vs. Jazz, fade Kuminga against Pelicans

Domantas Sabonis and two others make up tonight’s top NBA prop picks for Tuesday’s four-game slate.

The pregame narrative: I like Sabonis to perform on the back-to-back and also have plays on Jonathan Kuminga and Donte DiVincenzo.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 29.

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Best Bet: Sabonis over 30.5 points/rebounds (-117)

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Sabonis scored a season-low 16 points last night after exploding for 24-plus in each of the Sacramento Kings’ first two games.

He was an efficient 5-for-8 from the field and made a three for the third straight contest, a new wrinkle he looks to have added to his game.

The Kings centre also corralled a season-high 13 rebounds, falling just short of this line despite the low shot volume.

Sabonis had 32 points/rebounds in the season opener and followed it up with 41.

While Sabonis has been out on the perimeter more, he’s still primarily an interior scorer. He’s efficient in the paint and cleans up on the glass, creating putback opportunities that can help us in multiple ways with this market.

Tonight, he has a great matchup against the Utah Jazz.

The Jazz have been pounded in the paint through three games (all losses) while giving up an average of 121.0 points per contest. That ranks 27th in the NBA.

Last season, the Jazz were last in the NBA in defensive rating. The 28-year-old Sabonis averaged 30.8 points/rebounds in three matchups against them.

Key stat: Sabonis has averaged at least 31.0 points/rebounds in each of the last four seasons.

Quick picks

Kuminga under 20.5 points (-124): Kuminga has had a brutal start after breaking out last season.

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He hasn’t topped 12 points and is shooting 33.3% from the field through three games. His playing time hasn’t done him any favours, either, as he’s logged no more than 22 minutes a night.

With Steph Curry (ankle) out, Kuminga should naturally see more run and assume a bigger offensive role. The fourth-year forward averaged 16.1 points per game last season and was bound to produce more, even with Curry in the lineup.

That said, this is a large scoring leap to ask of him in a game that has the lowest total of the night.

Golden State has been excellent defensively following a strong second half last year, and the Pelicans had the NBA’s No. 6 defensive rating a season ago.

With no outside shot to speak of, Kuminga is going to have to grind for his points.

DiVincenzo over 2.5 threes (-110): The sharpshooter is 1-2 against this line through three games with the Minnesota Timberwolves.

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But even in a reserve role, he’s averaging the same shot volume he did with the New York Knicks when he started 63 of 81 games during the 2023-24 campaign.

DiVincenzo averaged a career-best 3.5 threes per game last season and is hoisting over 8.0 attempts for the second straight year.

He topped this line in 64% of his games last season. And he drilled five-plus in both matchups versus tonight’s opponent, the Dallas Mavericks.

DiVincenzo was 4-of-11 from long range in his last game in a season-low 23 minutes.

Picks made at 10:38 a.m. on 10/29/2024.

Mavericks vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions Oct. 29: Look for Doncic, Randle to shine in +275 SGP

For the first time since their Western Conference finals matchup, the Dallas Mavericks face the Minnesota Timberwolves tonight at Target Center.

The pregame narrative: Both teams have championship aspirations again this year, and I expect a hard-fought battle that results in an alt under. Even so, Luka Doncic and Julius Randle should make a splash on offence.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Timberwolves same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 29.

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Parlay: Under 229.5 points + Doncic over 3.5 threes + Randle over 19.5 points (+275)

Under 229.5 points (-240): Dallas was one of the most notable unders teams last year, cashing that side in 56.3% of its games, per Team Rankings. And the head-to-head results between the Mavericks and Timberwolves followed that trend.

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In nine meetings — five of which came in the conference finals — the average total was 218.2 points. And all nine games finished under this mark.

The Timberwolves had the best defensive rating in the NBA last season, and they seem to be particularly potent at home. Dating back to last season, 17 of their past 20 home games have gone under this number.

In a game featuring plenty of star talent, betting the over might seem tempting. But given the recent history of these teams, this alt under should have enough cushion to hit.

SGP legs

Doncic over 2.5 threes (-230): Last season, Doncic set career highs from the 3-point line in makes (4.1/game), attempts (10.6/game) and efficiency (38.2%). He hasn’t been as efficient so far this year, but the volume is in a great spot.

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Doncic has heaved nine or more threes in every game so far, averaging 11.0 per night. His Mavericks may have added deep-shooting savant Klay Thompson in the offseason, but it’s clear that both players have the green light to bomb away.

As stated above, a road date against the Timberwolves can be a daunting one for opposing offences. But that doesn’t seem to faze Doncic.

Last year, the NBA’s top scorer averaged 4.3 made threes against Minnesota and cleared this total in six of seven games.

Randle over 19.5 points (-175): Randle was a bit quiet in his Timberwolves debut, which was also his first meaningful NBA matchup since January. He’s been efficient in all three games, though, and now the volume is ticking up.

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The three-time all-star had 16 points last Tuesday and followed up with 33 and 24 in the two matchups since. He’s shot 50.0% or better from the floor each time out.

Anthony Edwards runs the show in Minnesota, but Randle was brought in as a guy who can score inside and out, too.

Since the 2020-21 season, Randle has averaged 23.3 PPG while shooting 34.7% from deep.

Picks made at 9:35 a.m. on 10/29/24.

Lakers vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions Oct. 28: Bet on Reaves and Durant at +310

The Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers meet for the second time in four days.

The pregame narrative: The Lakers are 3-0 with a win over the Suns in Los Angeles on Friday. I expect Phoenix to return the favour on its home court and have prop bets on Austin Reaves and Kevin Durant to round out this +310 SGP.

Check out my Lakers vs. Suns same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 28.

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Parlay: Suns +3.5 + Reaves over 24.5 PRA + Durant over 24.5 points (+310)

Suns +3.5 (-315): I think Phoenix wins tonight but will bank a few points just to be safe.

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Each of Los Angeles’ three wins came within the friendly confines of Crypto.com Arena. The Lakers went 20-24 on the road last season (regular season and playoffs included) and have lost six of their last seven games at Footprint Center.

LeBron James is still elite and Anthony Davis is playing out of his mind, but L.A. has gotten a tad lucky.

The Lakers shot 20 more free throws than the Suns on Friday and Davis, specifically, is attempting 15.0 free throws per game after averaging 6.9 last season. He is due for some regression and Phoenix should get a better whistle at home.

The Suns just handed the reigning Western Conference champion Dallas Mavericks a 12-point defeat and I think they keep the good times rolling tonight.

SGP legs

Reaves over 24.5 PRA (-136): Reaves is any coach’s dream player. He’s efficient from the field, plays solid defence, and can stuff the stat sheet in more ways than one.

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The fourth-year shooting guard has cleared this line in every game and is averaging 30.7 PRA so far. His best outing was a 25-4-8 performance against the Suns on Friday.

Reaves is averaging 12.7 field goal attempts per game and that volume is what I’m looking for.

Phoenix also gave up the seventh-most rebounds and ninth-most assists to shooting guards last season, according to Fantasy Pros.

Durant over 24.5 points (-143): LeBron gets a ton of deserved respect for performing in the later years of his career but Durant is just as machine-like.

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The four-time scoring champion hasn’t averaged fewer than 25.0 points per game since his rookie season and has put up north of 27.0 PPG in both of his full seasons with Phoenix.

He’s cleared this line in each game so far and is coming off back-to-back performances of 30-plus points, shooting 11-of-17 against the Lakers last Friday.

KD averaged 28.0 PPG at home last season and cleared this mark in 26 of 36 games played at Footprint Center (72.2%).

Picks made at 1:54 p.m. on 10/28/24.

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Nuggets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions Oct. 28: Back Jokic, Poeltl in +280 SGP

Nikola Jokic and the winless Denver Nuggets are in town to face the Toronto Raptors on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: An 0-2 record for the Nuggets is nothing to fret about, and it won’t keep me from backing them as road favourites tonight. On the player prop side of things, I think Nikola Jokic has a great opportunity to put up points and Jakob Poeltl should clear a reasonable rebounding line.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Oct. 28.

Nuggets vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Nuggets -4.5 + Jokic over 24.5 points + Poeltl over 7.5 rebounds (+280)

Nuggets -4.5 (-245): No one in the Mile High City should be hitting the panic button after a pair of losses to start the season. But getting in the win column tonight wouldn’t hurt.

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Denver is the better squad when both teams are at full strength, and the Nuggets are the healthier of the two teams right now. Kelly Olynyk is out for Toronto, while Immanuel Quickley is doubtful and RJ Barrett is questionable.

After losing by 30 in their opener, the Raptors beat a severely shorthanded 76ers squad and lost by double digits in Minnesota. Denver covered a -4.5 spread in both matchups against Toronto last year.

The Raptors are 6-19 ATS as home underdogs since the start of last season.

SGP legs

Jokic over 24.5 points (-210): You never know what kind of shooting volume you’re going to get from Jokic, which can make him a frustrating player to put money on. But his recent numbers against Toronto are great, and I like the idea of him taking over to help Denver nab its first win.

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Jokic finished with 35 points in 38 minutes when he played at Scotiabank Arena in March, marking his third straight game of 25-plus points against the Raptors.

That makes sense given that Toronto allowed the sixth-most points to opposing centres last season, per Betting Pros.

Jokic went nuclear on Saturday, draining 7-of-12 threes in a 41-point effort. With an effective field goal percentage of 62.1% over the past five seasons, he’s efficient enough to clear this mark on far fewer shots.

Poeltl over 7.5 rebounds (-155): Without Olynyk, and possibly without Barrett, Poeltl has the chance to be Toronto’s top rebounder on a nightly basis.

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That’s been the case in all three games so far, as the 7-footer has nine or more boards in each matchup.

Poeltl also cleared this rebounding total in 33 of 50 games last season and in two of three against Denver since he re-joined the Raptors.

Jokic will likely be tonight’s dominant force on the glass, but Poeltl should be under the rim enough on defence to rack up rebounds.

Picks made at 12:40 p.m. on 10/28/24.

Best NBA prop bets Oct. 28: Fade Giannis, back Fox and Reaves to produce

I’m fading a prime MVP candidate tonight and am backing a couple of guards for my NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Giannis Antetokounmpo can go off against anyone, but he seems least likely to do so against the defending champion Boston Celtics on the road. Later on, I like De’Aaron Fox to exploit a plus matchup and for Austin Reaves to stay heavily involved as a passer and scorer.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Oct. 28.

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Best Bet: Fox over 23.5 points (+110)

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Fox has been great against this number in recent seasons, and his matchup tonight is one I know he can exploit.

The eighth-year point guard has averaged 25.0 points per game since 2020-21, providing steady production that makes the Kings a fun team to watch.

Last year, Fox posted a career-high 26.6 PPG, which had a lot to do with his career-high 7.8 attempted threes per game. While upping his volume from deep, Fox also posted his best-ever 3PT% (36.9).

On Saturday, Fox had 28 points against the Los Angeles Lakers while shooting 3-for-10 from beyond the arc. Any time he’s in the vicinity of double-digit 3-point attempts, I’m going to feel great about his chances to clear this point total.

Let’s talk about tonight’s matchup, which comes against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Portland allowed the fourth-most PPG to opposing point guards last season (25.8), per Betting Pros. And Fox certainly had a hand in that.

On Boxing Day, he dropped 43 points in 38 minutes. Then in April, Fox scored 24 points in just 26 minutes of a blowout win.

In six matchups against the Blazers since 2022-23, Fox has cleared this total four times while averaging 28.2 PPG. This is a worthwhile spot to take on some plus-money action.

Key stat: Last year, Fox went over 23.5 points in 47 of 74 games (63.5%).

Quick picks

Giannis under 27.5 points (-122): A road date against the Celtics is about as tough of a matchup as Giannis could have.

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Boston held power forwards to a league-low 19.8 PPG last year while also posting the best defensive rating in the Eastern Conference.

The Greek Freak has gone under 27.5 points against Boston in four consecutive matchups — including all three last season.

Also, Giannis has hit this under in both road matchups so far in 2024-25.

Reaves over 20.5 points/assists (-118): Shooting 0-for-5 from 3-point range on opening night caused Reaves to slip below this total, but he’s since cashed the bet in back-to-back games.

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That includes a 26-point, eight-assist performance against the Suns on Friday. Reaves has now gone over 20.5 points/assists in five of his past eight matchups against Phoenix dating back to March 2023.

Reaves isn’t the primary facilitator for the Lakers, but he averaged 5.5 assists last year and is second on the team right now in potential assists per game (8.5), per NBA.com.

The fourth-year shooting guard should continue to see more opportunities as a scorer, too, and he’s shooting 55.3% from the floor so far.

Picks made at 10:50 a.m. on 10/28/2024.