Category: NBA

Raptors vs. Clippers props Nov. 9: Fade James Harden, Ochai Agbaji in Los Angeles

Raptors vs. Clippers props

I’m fading James Harden and Ochai Agbaji when the Toronto Raptors play the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

The pregame narrative: L.A. is on the second leg of a back-to-back and that’s part of the reason I expect Harden to go under his 3-point total. Agbaji, meanwhile, has carved out an interesting role for himself but gets a tough matchup.

Check out my Raptors vs. Clippers props for Nov. 9.

Raptors vs. Clippers props

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Best Bet: Harden under 2.5 threes (+105)

A decade ago, taking the under on a Harden 3-point line like this would be crazy. Now, not so much.

The veteran’s 35.2% usage rate is his highest since the 2019-20 season but he’s shooting a horrible 30.1% from deep, which is on pace to be the worst mark of his career.

Toronto isn’t a great defensive team and allows opponents to shoot a middling 35.8% from beyond the arc.

But most of the damage done against the Raptors from deep comes from the corner. According to Cleaning the Glass, Toronto allows opponents to shoot 46.2% on corner threes (29th in the NBA) and 33.0% from non-corner threes (fifth in the NBA).

Harden absolutely hates taking corner threes and has only attempted one all season compared to 70 non-corner threes. Last year he shot 40 corner threes and 444 non-corner threes. That’s staggering.

Not to mention the veteran played 35 minutes in a road win yesterday and will probably get a bit of a breather tonight back at home.

Key stat: Harden has gone under this mark in five of nine games.

Quick pick

Agbaji under 10.5 points (-120): Toronto doesn’t have a true power forward and often rolls with a four-guard lineup.

Immanuel Quickley is in line to return, meaning Agbaji will see some time at power forward.

The 6-foot-5 Kansas product is taking more threes but less will be available tonight. Without Quickley he is 6-2 against this line but had just three points in 25 minutes in the one game they’ve played together this year.

Dating back to last season, Agbaji is averaging 5.8 PPG with Quickley in the lineup and has fallen under this line in 10 straight games.

The Clippers also allow the fewest points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 10:24 a.m. ET 11/09/2024.

Raptors vs. Clippers props Nov. 9: Fade James Harden, Ochai Agbaji in Los Angeles

Raptors vs. Clippers props

I’m fading James Harden and Ochai Agbaji when the Toronto Raptors play the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

The pregame narrative: L.A. is on the second leg of a back-to-back and that’s part of the reason I expect Harden to go under his 3-point total. Agbaji, meanwhile, has carved out an interesting role for himself but gets a tough matchup.

Check out my Raptors vs. Clippers props for Nov. 9.

Raptors vs. Clippers props

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Best Bet: Harden under 2.5 threes (+100)

A decade ago, taking the under on a Harden 3-point line like this would be crazy. Now, not so much.

The veteran’s 35.2% usage rate is his highest since the 2019-20 season but he’s shooting a horrible 30.1% from deep, which is on pace to be the worst mark of his career.

Toronto isn’t a great defensive team and allows opponents to shoot a middling 35.8% from beyond the arc.

But most of the damage done against the Raptors from deep comes from the corner. According to Cleaning the Glass, Toronto allows opponents to shoot 46.2% on corner threes (29th in the NBA) and 33.0% from non-corner threes (fifth in the NBA).

Harden absolutely hates taking corner threes and has only attempted one all season compared to 70 non-corner threes. Last year he shot 40 corner threes and 444 non-corner threes. That’s staggering.

Not to mention the veteran played 35 minutes in a road win yesterday and will probably get a bit of a breather tonight back at home.

Key stat: Harden has gone under this mark in five of nine games.

Quick pick

Agbaji under 10.5 points (-120): Toronto doesn’t have a true power forward and often rolls with a four-guard lineup.

Immanuel Quickley is in line to return, meaning Agbaji will see some time at power forward.

The 6-foot-5 Kansas product is taking more threes but less will be available tonight. Without Quickley he is 6-2 against this line but had just three points in 25 minutes in the one game they’ve played together this year.

Dating back to last season, Agbaji is averaging 5.8 PPG with Quickley in the lineup and has fallen under this line in 10 straight games.

The Clippers also allow the fewest points per game to power forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Picks made at 10:24 a.m. ET 11/09/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 9: Back bigs Wembanyama, Mobley to score

NBA prop bets

I’m targeting a pair of big men and a shooting guard in Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama and Evan Mobley should run wild against the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets tonight while Zach LaVine is a good bet to produce from deep.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 9.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Wembanyama over 22.5 points (-120)

It’s hard to get behind Wembanyama right now with the way he’s playing.

The second-year phenom is averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting a dreadful 41.3% from the field. Nealy half of his 15.3 field goal attempts are coming from deep, which is a little puzzling considering his 7-foot-4 stature and even larger wingspan.

That said, I like Wemby’s chances of righting the ship tonight because Utah profiles as the type of team he can succeed against.

The Jazz have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA and allow the second-most points per game to centres, according to Betting Pros.

If we want to get even more granular, they allow opponents to shoot 48.3% from the “deep midrange” and 38.1% from “non-corner threes”, according to Cleaning the Glass. That ranks 28th and 26th among all teams.

Those are two areas of the court that are very familiar to the San Antonio Spurs centre.

Key stat: Wembanyama takes 15% of his shots from the deep midrange (95th percentile among all NBA players) and 41% from non-corner threes (91st percentile).

Quick picks

Mobley over 15.5 points (-134): The biggest risk with this pick is blowout potential. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 13-point favourites at home and that could mean less run for Mobley.

That said, the fourth-year power forward’s 23.7% usage rate is the highest of his career so far and he’s scoring at an efficient clip.

Mobley is averaging 17.9 points per game on 53.0% shooting. Most of that damage comes in the short midrange or at the rim, two areas where the Nets struggle to defend.

He’s 6-5 against this line and came within a basket of clearing it in the other four contests.

LaVine over 2.5 threes (-163): Two things to note: First, this is a lot of juice but I believe it’s worth it. And second, the shooting guard is listed as questionable so that will need to be monitored moving forward.

The Atlanta Hawks’ defence is awful — full stop.

It ranks 25th in defensive rating and dead last in opponent 3-point percentage (40.5).

LaVine is attempting 8.0 threes a night and is connecting at a 45.8% clip. He just buried five triples against the Nets and had five against the Memphis Grizzlies two games before that.

If he suits up, this should be a breeze. And if not, a pivot to Colby White (9.0 3PA/game, 39.5 3PT%) isn’t a bad option.

Picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 11/09/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 9: Back bigs Wembanyama, Mobley to score

NBA prop bets

I’m targeting a pair of big men and a shooting guard in Saturday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Victor Wembanyama and Evan Mobley should run wild against the Utah Jazz and Brooklyn Nets tonight while Zach LaVine is a good bet to produce from deep.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 9.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Wembanyama over 22.5 points (-118)

It’s hard to get behind Wembanyama right now with the way he’s playing.

The second-year phenom is averaging 17.7 points per game while shooting a dreadful 41.3% from the field. Nealy half of his 15.3 field goal attempts are coming from deep, which is a little puzzling considering his 7-foot-4 stature and even larger wingspan.

That said, I like Wemby’s chances of righting the ship tonight because Utah profiles as the type of team he can succeed against.

The Jazz have the fourth-worst defensive rating in the NBA and allow the second-most points per game to centres, according to Betting Pros.

If we want to get even more granular, they allow opponents to shoot 48.3% from the “deep midrange” and 38.1% from “non-corner threes”, according to Cleaning the Glass. That ranks 28th and 26th among all teams.

Those are two areas of the court that are very familiar to the San Antonio Spurs centre.

Key stat: Wembanyama takes 15% of his shots from the deep midrange (95th percentile among all NBA players) and 41% from non-corner threes (91st percentile).

Quick picks

Mobley over 15.5 points (-120): The biggest risk with this pick is blowout potential. The Cleveland Cavaliers are 13-point favourites at home and that could mean less run for Mobley.

That said, the fourth-year power forward’s 23.7% usage rate is the highest of his career so far and he’s scoring at an efficient clip.

Mobley is averaging 17.9 points per game on 53.0% shooting. Most of that damage comes in the short midrange or at the rim, two areas where the Nets struggle to defend.

He’s 6-5 against this line and came within a basket of clearing it in the other four contests.

LaVine over 2.5 threes (-141): Two things to note: First, this is a lot of juice but I believe it’s worth it. And second, the shooting guard is listed as questionable so that will need to be monitored moving forward.

The Atlanta Hawks’ defence is awful — full stop.

It ranks 25th in defensive rating and dead last in opponent 3-point percentage (40.5).

LaVine is attempting 8.0 threes a night and is connecting at a 45.8% clip. He just buried five triples against the Nets and had five against the Memphis Grizzlies two games before that.

If he suits up, this should be a breeze. And if not, a pivot to Colby White (9.0 3PA/game, 39.5 3PT%) isn’t a bad option.

Picks made at 9:32 a.m. ET on 11/09/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 8: Fade LeBron, back Bridges and Sengun on Friday night

NBA prop bets

NBA fans are treated to a loaded 13-game slate on Friday.

The pregame narrative: My favourite prop picks for the busy evening centre on Mikal Bridges, LeBron James, Alperen Sengun and Jaden Ivey.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 8.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Bridges over 14.5 points (-130)

Jalen Brunson is an obvious target against the Milwaukee Bucks’ porous defence versus guards. But his points line is a hefty 28.5. 

Even if he cooks, that’s a big number to hit when his scoring is down three points from last season thanks to the New York Knicks’ addition of Karl-Anthony Towns. 

So I’m turning my attention to Bridges, who’s scoring less in New York but has remained efficient from long range. And his shooting from the field is the best it has been since he was tasked with taking on a larger offensive role following his move to Brooklyn. 

Much was rightfully made about Bridges’ new-look shot ahead of the season but he’s shooting 49.5% from the field (his best mark since 2021-22) and 37.0% on 3s, matching his career mark. 

Bridges has scored at least 15 points in all but one game and I expect the Knicks to score plenty on Milwaukee, which is on a back-to-back.

Brunson and Towns may do the heavy lifting. But there should be enough shots to go around for Bridges, the team’s No. 3 scoring option.

Key stat: No team allows more points to guards than Milwaukee, according to Betting Pros.

Quick picks

James under 23.5 points (-118): LeBron’s shot volume is down to a career-low mark and so is his scoring production.

He’s still averaging an exceptional 24.0 points per game, which is particularly impressive considering he’ll turn 40 next month.

While his Los Angeles Lakers have a juicy matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, that’s part of the reason why I’m fading him. Philadelphia is down stars Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, creating huge blowout potential in this one.

The Lakers are at home and should pump the 76ers, which would give coach J.J. Redick an opportunity to find extra rest for his stars.

An obvious candidate would be James, who is 4-4 versus this line through eight games.

Sengun over 9.5 rebounds (-130): The Houston Rockets centre is averaging a career-best 11.4 rebounds despite logging his fewest minutes since his rookie season. 

Sengun has reached double figures in six of eight games with 11-plus boards five times. 

Only six teams allow more rebounds to the centre position than the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have a worse rebounding rate than every team outside of the Washington Wizards.

The only two games Sengun fell short of 10 boards came against the San Antonio Spurs, the No. 2-rebounding team in the NBA. 

Sengun had 11 and 12 rebounds in his last two games against OKC.

Ivey over 1.5 threes (-130): Ivey and the Detroit Pistons get the Atlanta Hawks, who are a mess defensively. 

Atlanta ranks 26th in defensive rating, 28th in PPG allowed and last in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Teams are converting 40.6% of their 3-point shots versus Atlanta on an astronomical 43.2 attempts per game. 

Ivey is shooting 41.3% from deep on a career-high 5.1 attempts a night. 

Expect the third-year guard, who is 6-3 versus this line, to unleash from long range.

Picks made at 12:54 p.m. ET on 11/08/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 8: Fade LeBron, back Bridges and Sengun on Friday night

NBA prop bets

NBA fans are treated to a loaded 13-game slate on Friday.

The pregame narrative: My favourite prop picks for the busy evening centre on Mikal Bridges, LeBron James, Alperen Sengun and Jaden Ivey.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 8.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Bridges over 15.5 points (-112)

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Jalen Brunson is an obvious target against the Milwaukee Bucks’ porous defence versus guards. But his points line is a hefty 28.5. 

Even if he cooks, that’s a big number to hit when his scoring is down three points from last season thanks to the New York Knicks’ addition of Karl-Anthony Towns. 

So I’m turning my attention to Bridges, who’s scoring less in New York but has remained efficient from long range. And his shooting from the field is the best it has been since he was tasked with taking on a larger offensive role following his move to Brooklyn. 

Much was rightfully made about Bridges’ new-look shot ahead of the season but he’s shooting 49.5% from the field (his best mark since 2021-22) and 37.0% on 3s, matching his career mark. 

Bridges has scored at least 15 points in all but one game and I expect the Knicks to score plenty on Milwaukee, which is on a back-to-back.

Brunson and Towns may do the heavy lifting. But there should be enough shots to go around for Bridges, the team’s No. 3 scoring option.

Key stat: No team allows more points to guards than Milwaukee, according to Betting Pros.

Quick picks

James under 23.5 points (-114): LeBron’s shot volume is down to a career-low mark and so is his scoring production.

He’s still averaging an exceptional 24.0 points per game, which is particularly impressive considering he’ll turn 40 next month.

While his Los Angeles Lakers have a juicy matchup against the Philadelphia 76ers, that’s part of the reason why I’m fading him. Philadelphia is down stars Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey, creating huge blowout potential in this one.

The Lakers are at home and should pump the 76ers, which would give coach J.J. Redick an opportunity to find extra rest for his stars.

An obvious candidate would be James, who is 4-4 versus this line through eight games.

Sengun over 10.5 rebounds (+106): The Houston Rockets centre is averaging a career-best 11.4 rebounds despite logging his fewest minutes since his rookie season. 

Sengun has reached double figures in six of eight games and topped this line five times. 

Only six teams allow more rebounds to the centre position than the Oklahoma City Thunder, who have a worse rebounding rate than every team outside of the Washington Wizards.

The only two games Sengun fell short of 10 boards came against the San Antonio Spurs, the No. 2-rebounding team in the NBA. 

We need more than 10 tonight, but he did clear that number in his last two games against OKC.

Ivey over 1.5 threes (-121): Ivey and the Detroit Pistons get the Atlanta Hawks, who are a mess defensively. 

Atlanta ranks 26th in defensive rating, 28th in PPG allowed and last in opponent 3-point percentage. 

Teams are converting 40.6% of their 3-point shots versus Atlanta on an astronomical 43.2 attempts per game. 

Ivey is shooting 41.3% from deep on a career-high 5.1 attempts a night. 

Expect the third-year guard, who is 6-3 versus this line, to unleash from long range.

Picks made at 12:54 p.m. ET on 11/08/2024.

Clippers vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Nov. 8: Bet on Fox and Powell to produce in +335 ticket

Clippers vs. Kings predictions

The Sacramento Kings host the Los Angeles Clippers for an intrastate rivalry match tonight.

The pregame narrative: With Kawhi Leonard out, Norman Powell has been forced to carry the scoring load for Los Angeles. I expect him to produce — albeit in a losing effort — and am also backing De’Aaron Fox from deep.

Check out my Clippers vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 8.

Clippers vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Kings moneyline + Fox over 1.5 threes + Powell over 22.5 points (+335)

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Kings moneyline (-278): Sacramento started its season with two losses but has been rolling since.

The Kings are 5-1 in their last six with the only loss coming in overtime in Toronto during Vince Carter’s jersey retirement night.

In that span, Sacramento ranks fifth in net rating (+9.0) and defensive rating (108.8). Offence wasn’t a problem for Mike Brown’s group last year, so it’s encouraging to see the team tighten up on the other end of the floor where it struggled.

The Clippers have been a great defensive team so far but have struggled to score without Leonard, which has led to a middling 4-4 record.

L.A. has won back-to-back games, but those were against the bottom-feeding San Antonio Spurs and the Philadelphia 76ers without Joel Embiid.

The Kings are 24-14 SU as a home favourite since the start of last season and 2-0 this year. I expect the good times to continue in California’s capital.

SGP legs

Fox over 1.5 threes (-265): Fox is having a dreadful start to the season shooting the deep ball. But he’s still firing with volume and that’s good enough for me.

Sacramento’s point guard is attempting 6.9 threes a night, which is more than any season except last year when he attempted 7.8.

He’s only connecting at a 29.1% clip but has still cleared this mark in five of eight games.

The Clippers are a nice matchup for Fox to get back on the horse. L.A. is allowing opponents to shoot 37.2% from deep, which is the ninth-highest rate in the NBA.

Powell over 22.5 points (+108): Clippers fans would love to have Leonard back but I’m sure Powell doesn’t hate his increased role.

The former Toronto Raptor has been on fire to start the season, scoring a team-high 25.0 PPG on impressive 53.0/48.5/86.2 shooting splits.

He’s gone over this mark in five straight games and ranks 47th in the NBA in usage rate, tied with LeBron James.

Much like the Clippers, the Kings struggle to defend the arc, ranking a pedestrian 17th in opponent 3-point percentage.

Powell takes the most threes per game (8.5) of anyone on L.A. and I expect him to be active this evening.

Picks made at 10:55 a.m. ET on 11/08/2024.

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Suns vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions Nov. 8: Ride with Luka Doncic, Devin Booker in +350 SGP

Suns vs. Mavericks predictions

The surging Phoenix Suns are on the road tonight to face the defending conference champion Dallas Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix and Dallas played a relatively low-scoring game in their first go-round this season, and I expect more of the same tonight. But that doesn’t mean Luka Doncic or Devin Booker should hold back on the offensive side of the floor.

Check out my Suns vs. Mavericks same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 8.

Suns vs. Mavericks predictions

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Parlay: Under 235.5 points + Doncic over 2.5 threes + Booker over 5.5 assists (+350)

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Under 235.5 points (-180): Dating back to Christmas Day of last season, the under is 4-0 in the past four matchups between the Suns and Mavericks.

Granted, the projected total was set in the 240s for three of those games. But in their Oct. 26 matchup in Phoenix — with an over/under of 230 points — the teams combined for just 216.

We know there’s no shortage of scoring savants in this matchup, but defence has been a point of pride for both sides so far this year. Dallas and Phoenix rank third and eighth, respectively, in defensive rating.

The under is 35-22 (61.4%) in Dallas’ home games since the start of last season. That’s the second-highest rate in the NBA in that span.

SGP legs

Doncic over 2.5 threes (-225): Even if scoring is relatively low, Doncic will be a tough guy to keep quiet.

Last year’s scoring champ has exploded in each of his past five matchups against the Suns, averaging 39.8 points in those games. A key part of that scoring success is 3-point volume.

  • In those five games against Phoenix, Doncic is shooting 40.0% from deep on 12.0 attempts per game.

  • He’s cashed this bet in four straight against the Suns, including a 5-for-13 showing last month.

  • Doncic is averaging 3.3 made 3s so far after a career-high 4.1 made 3s last season.

Simply put, he’s reliable against this line.

Booker over 5.5 assists (-148): As a shooting guard, Booker might not seem like a guy capable of racking up assists. As it turns out, his threat to score makes him an effective passer.

  • According to NBA.com player tracking data, Booker is fifth on the Suns in passes per game, but he’s second in terms of potential assists per game (10.5). Potential assists are tallied as any pass that immediately leads to a shot, and thus would result in an assist if the shot went in.
  • Booker, who averaged a career-high 6.9 assists last season, has cashed this bet in four consecutive games.
  • The Mavericks allow the most assists per game to opposing shooting guards (5.6), per Betting Pros, and Booker has averaged 7.2 APG in his past five matchups against them.

NBA picks made at 9:00 a.m. on 11/08/24.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 7: Back Anfernee Simons, fade Anthony Edwards

NBA prop bets

I’ve got a pair of prop bets from Thursday’s slim three-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: Anfernee Simons is the top dog in Portland and I expect him to torch the San Antonio Spurs tonight. Elsewhere, I’m fading Anthony Edwards from deep a tough matchup.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Thursday, Nov. 7.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Simons over 21.5 points (-120)

Simons is a streaky player but he’s Portland’s No. 1 option and gets a nice matchup.

The seventh-year shooting guard leads the team in points (19.5) and field goal attempts (16.9) per game.

He’s coming off a 24-point outing against the New Orleans Pelicans and had 20 against the Phoenix Suns before that. Overall, Simons has cleared this total in four of eight games.

Those aren’t eye-popping numbers, but keep in mind he’s shooting 38.5% from the field and 31.0% from deep. That’s well below his career averages and marks from last year, so some positive regression should be on the horizon.

The Spurs are a great slump-buster, especially for players who like to let it fly from deep.

San Antonio is 10th in defensive rating but that’s because Victor Wembanyama makes anything near the rim a no-fly zone. On the perimeter, the Spurs are allowing opponents to cash in at the sixth-highest rate (37.8%) in the NBA.

Simons attempts 8.3 threes per game and shot 38.5% from beyond the arc last year.

San Antonio is also on a back-to-back, so we’ll see how that affects its defensive rotation and Wembanyama’s minutes.

Key stat: Simons averaged 23.6 PPG last season and scored 40 points in his only game against the Spurs.

Quick picks

Edwards under 3.5 threes (-120): Fading Edwards is risky, but this is the spot to do it.

The 3-5 Chicago Bulls might need to re-think their defensive scheme but right now they’re locking up the perimeter and getting demolished in the paint.

Chicago is ceding the most paint points per game (57.3) with the fourth-lowest opponent 3-point shooting percentage (31.3%). Teams aren’t voluntarily going inside as the Bulls’ opponents are taking 39.5 threes a game, the fifth-most in basketball.

There is a risk that Edwards might clear this strictly based on volume but I trust Chicago’s perimeter defence to keep him at bay.

There is also a good chance of a Minnesota Timberwolves blowout, which would mean fewer minutes for Edwards.

Picks made at 8:13 a.m. ET on 11/07/2024.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs same-game parlay predictions Nov. 7: Back Simons, Paul in +275 ticket

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs predictions

The San Antonio Spurs host the Portland Trail Blazers tonight.

The pregame narrative: San Antonio lost yesterday and I’m looking to fade it on a back-to-back. Prop bets on Chris Paul and Anfernee Simons round out this +275 SGP.

Check out my Trail Blazers vs. Spurs same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 7.

Trail Blazers vs. Spurs predictions

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Parlay: Trail Blazers +8.5 + Simons over 2.5 threes + Paul over 8.5 assists (+275)

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Trail Blazers +8.5 (-225): Both teams sit at 3-5 heading into tonight’s game but I feel much better about Portland covering this number.

San Antonio played last night and got smoked by the Houston Rockets on home court. Dating back to the start of last season, the Spurs are 3-11 when playing on no rest, which is the second-worst record in the NBA according to Team Rankings.

Their average point differential in those games is -11.4 and one of those losses was to the Trail Blazers in Portland.

San Antonio is also missing two-fifths of last year’s starting rotation with Devin Vassell and Jeremy Sochan sidelined.

New acquisition Harrison Barnes is averaging just 9.5 points per game and I don’t expect him to make much of an impact.

SGP legs

Simons over 2.5 threes (-220): I backed Simons to clear his 21.5-point total in today’s NBA prop bets and will double-dip by adding a teased-down 3-point line to this SGP.

The Spurs are great at defending the interior because that’s where Victor Wembanyama lives, but are awful are shutting down the perimeter.

San Antonio allows opponents to shoot at the sixth-highest rate from beyond the arc (37.8%) in the NBA.

Simons is shooting just 31.0% from deep this year but he’s still cleared this mark in four of eight games. Last year, he shot 38.5% from three and drained seven triples in his only game against the Spurs.

Paul over 20.5 points and assists (-114): Paul is into his 20th season but I’m not worried about the veteran’s usage on a back-to-back.

He only played 20 minutes in yesterday’s blowout loss and had cleared this mark in four straight games before that. And in San Antonio’s other back-to-back this season, he had 19 points and 10 assists against the Utah Jazz.

The Trail Blazers, much like the Spurs, excel in defending the paint but not the 3-point line.

Paul’s floor as a passer is high so I think he’ll rack up helpers, but I also like his chances of providing some offence with Sochan and Vassell out.

NBA picks made at 10:47 a.m. on 11/07/24.