Category: NBA

The Sacramento Kings host the Utah Jazz in the final game of Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento earned a comfortable victory in Utah last month, and I like the Kings to win again tonight at home. This +280 SGP also includes prop bets on Domantas Sabonis and a surging John Collins.

Check out my Jazz vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 16.

Jazz vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Kings -6.5 + Collins over 14.5 points + Sabonis over 10.5 rebounds (+280)

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Kings -6.5 (-190): Utah already has three outright wins as an underdog this month, and it’ll have the rest advantage tonight against a Sacramento squad playing on a back-to-back. Those facts might narrow the gap — hence my teased-down alt spread here — but the Kings are still superior.

• SAC ranks ninth in net rating (+3.7); UTA ranks 29th (-11.7)

• SAC is on a five-game winning streak vs. UTA since March 2023, winning each of those games by 16-plus points

• The Kings are 3-1 as home favourites with an average victory margin of 10.5 points

At the end of last month, Sacramento earned a 113-96 win over Utah on the road as a 6.5-point favourite. Replicating that spread tonight, I expect the Kings to triumphantly light the beam at home.

SGP legs

Collins over 14.5 points (-210): One of the weird aspects of Utah’s season so far is that Collins is the team’s leading scorer (18.1 PPG) despite coming off the bench in nine of 11 games.

That makes Collins look like a solid bet against this number on any given night. After all, he has 15-plus points in seven of 11 matchups so far.

But I’m particularly bullish on Collins, given that he’s expected to be in the starting lineup with Walker Kessler ruled out again. In Kessler’s absence the past two games, Collins has balled out as a starter:

• Nov. 12: 29 points (12-for-19) vs. Phoenix
• Nov. 14: 28 points (10-for-20) vs. Dallas

Playing 34-plus minutes in both games, Collins put up his highest shot totals of the season. If he approaches another shot total in the 16-20 range, he should be able to smash this number.

Sabonis over 10.5 rebounds (-235): With Kessler out and Markkanen dealing with an injury (but available), the Jazz will be a little undersized tonight. That should play right into the hands of Sabonis.

The two-time reigning rebounding champ is on his sixth consecutive season averaging 12.0 or more boards.

He’s gone over 10.5 rebounds in 11 of 12 games since opening night.

Dating back to the 2022-23 season, Sabonis has cashed this bet in seven of eight matchups against the Jazz, averaging 12.0 RPG in those games.

Picks made at 2:56 p.m. on 11/16/24.

There are four NBA night games on Saturday, and I’ve got a prop bet from three of them.

The pregame narrative: Anthony Davis faces a tough rebounding matchup tonight and I’m taking the under on his total. Elsewhere, I like Kyrie Irving to stay hot as a scorer and for John Collins to make the most of an outsized opportunity with the Utah Jazz.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 16.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Irving over 22.5 points (-120)

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Can we get some more looks for Irving, please?

The 14th-year guard is in a microwave right now, and his ultra-efficient shooting should encourage his Dallas Mavericks teammates to find him more often.

• 54.5% FG rate (career-high)
• 17.4 FG attempts/game (lowest since 2015-16)

Irving is currently shooting better than 50.0% from 3-point land, and obviously that won’t last. But he should continue to strike while the iron is blazing hot.

Keep in mind that Irving has been a dazzling scorer for a long, long time. A 22.5-point line falls below his scoring average in each of the past nine seasons.

And it’s not as if Irving’s tenure in Dallas has prompted a fall-off in production. Over two-plus seasons with the Mavs, he’s scored 25.9 PPG on 19.2 shots.

All of that is to say, Irving looks like a great bet at this number. Get him the ball a bit more and watch what he does with it.

Irving only had 15 points against the San Antonio Spurs (tonight’s opponent) in the season opener, but that was on an uncharacteristically low minutes count.

Last year, he averaged 28.0 PPG against the Spurs and hit this over in two of three games.

Key stat: Irving has cashed this bet in six of his past nine games (26.7 PPG) while shooting 58.6% from the floor.

Quick picks

Davis under 12.5 rebounds (-130): On a back-to-back, Davis isn’t in his best position tonight to rack up rebounds.

Davis’ Los Angeles Lakers face the New Orleans Pelicans, who’ve allowed the third-fewest rebounds per game to opponents.

New Orleans hasn’t even allowed a player to record 10-plus rebounds in any of its past four games.

That has a lot to do with New Orleans playing at the second-slowest pace (97.1 possessions/game), per NBA.com. But hey, whatever works to suppress Davis’ rebounding opportunities.

Davis, who’s averaging 10.9 RPG this season, has gone under 12.5 rebounds in five of his past six games.

Collins over 26.5 points/rebounds (-108): Collins has primarily come off the bench so far this year for the Jazz, but injuries have pushed him into back-to-back starting lineups — and he’s taken advantage.

On Tuesday, Collins finished with 29 points and 10 rebounds in a starting role against Phoenix. Two days later, he racked up 28 points and nine rebounds against Dallas.

Utah centre Walker Kessler is out, and power forward Lauri Markkanen is questionable. I think the 6-foot-9 Collins will draw into the starting frontcourt again, which makes this line look extremely attainable.

In November, Collins has averaged 21.0 PPG and 8.3 RPG despite coming off the bench in four of six games.

Picks made at 1:00 p.m. ET on 11/16/2024.

For the second time this season, Victor Wembanyama and Luka Doncic will be on the court for a must-see matchup in Dallas.

The pregame narrative: Doncic had the upper hand when they met last month, notching a 28-point double-double in Dallas’ 11-point win. It just so happens that Wembanyama is coming off a 28-point double-double of his own last night against the Los Angeles Lakers.

Check out our Wembanyama and Doncic props for the Nov. 16 game at American Airlines Center.

Wembanyama and Doncic props

Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

NBA odds as of 9:00 a.m. ET on 11/16/2024.

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Doncic’s Mavericks have now gone 5-0 against Wemby’s Spurs since the reigning Rookie of the Year entered the league.

Wemby played in four of those matchups and has struggled to put up big numbers:

• Oct. 25 (last year): 15 points, five rebounds, two assists
• Feb. 14 (last year): 26 points, nine rebounds, five assists
• March 19 (last year): 12 points, 11 rebounds, three assists
• Oct. 24 (this year): 17 points, nine rebounds, one assist

Tonight marks Wemby’s third back-to-back of the season, but that shouldn’t affect his workload much. He played 32-plus minutes in both previous games on zero rest this year, which aligns with his season average.

Doncic, meanwhile, is still searching for his first triple-double of the season. He notched three against the Spurs last year while averaging 51.3 points/rebounds/assists.

The reigning scoring champ has scored 30-plus points in five of his past seven games. But he’s finished below 30 points in three of four career matchups with Wemby on the floor.

Best Wembanyama prop bet

Best bet: Over 2.5 threes (-129)

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The Mavericks aren’t an ideal matchup for opposing 3-point shooters, and that showed in Wembanyama’s opening night performance against them (1-for-8).

But after a slow start from beyond the arc, Wemby has really turned up the heat — and the volume.

• First eight games: 1.5 threes per game on 21.4% shooting (7.0 attempts)
• Past five games: 5.2 threes per game on 46.4% shooting (11.2 attempts)

Wemby is talented enough that if he’s firing seven-plus 3s most nights, I’ll at least consider the over at this number. And he’s cruised to the over in four straight games entering Saturday.

Even if the hot streak comes to an end, there should be enough 3-point shot volume for Wemby to have a go at this.

Best Doncic prop bet

Best bet: Over 8.5 assists (-113)

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Doncic went under 8.5 assists in six straight games to open the year, but he’s cashed the over in four of six since.

He’s cleared this total in three of five matchups against the Spurs in the Wemby era — landing on exactly eight assists in both unders.

Though Doncic is typically the primary shooter for the Mavericks, now is a good time to defer a bit more to his backcourt companion, Kyrie Irving.

Irving is shooting 63.1% from the floor in his past five games on 16.8 attempts. Doncic, in the same span, is shooting 45.3% on 23.2 shots per game.

Doncic is always a threat to hit this over, and he should be in a great spot if he feeds the hot hand of Irving.

The Sacramento Kings host the Minnesota Timberwolves in tonight’s NBA Cup nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota has lost three straight but I expect it to pick up a win behind Anthony Edwards. Sacramento is likely without DeMar DeRozan, so I’m targeting De’Aaron Fox as well.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 15.

Timberwolves vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Timberwolves moneyline + Edwards over 24.5 points + Fox over 23.5 points (+300)

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Timberwolves moneyline (-121): Minnesota hasn’t been playing its best basketball lately.

After a 6-3 start to the year, the T-Wolves have dropped three straight — two of which were to the lowly Portland Trail Blazers — while averaging just 100.0 points per game.

But tonight represents a prime bounce-back spot for a team that won 56 games last year.

The Kings are 2-2 in their last four with both wins coming against the Kevin Durant-less Phoenix Suns.

They’re a solid basketball team but are likely without DeRozan (back) who is listed as doubtful. The veteran small forward is averaging 22.9 PPG and was playing over 35 minutes a night. Sacramento sixth man Malik Monk is also out.

Minnesota has a clean bill of health and I expect it to dominate tonight.

SGP legs

Edwards over 24.5 points (-215): Edwards is averaging a career-best 27.8 points per game and was going nuclear from 3-point land before shooting 0-for-8 on Wednesday night.

But he still had 24 points despite a goose egg from deep and that just shows his floor as a scorer.

The fifth-year guard hasn’t gone below 21 points this season and has cleared this mark in seven of 12 games. That includes a 32-point outing in a win against Sacramento on Oct. 24.

Let’s circle back to Edwards’ 3-point game.

Prior to Wednesday, he was shooting 45.3% on 11.6 attempts per night. That’s incredible and one bad game won’t change his willingness to let it fly.

Sacramento allows opponents to shoot 37.0% from deep (24th in NBA), so expect Edwards to do some damage.

Fox over 23.5 points (-220): Fox was the alpha dog on Sacramento last season, averaging a team-high 26.6 points and 20.9 field goal attempts per game.

He still leads the team in both categories this year even though his numbers are slightly down to 24.6 PPG and 18.7 FGA.

That said, he should be taking a boatload of shots tonight and that puts him in a good spot to clear this line on volume alone.

Fox has cleared this mark in six of eight games in November while shooting 49.7% from the field.

NBA picks made at 1:47 p.m. on 11/15/24.