Category: NBA

On the latter half of a back-to-back, the Los Angeles Clippers host the surging Golden State Warriors at Intuit Dome.

The pregame narrative: Golden State (10-2) has been one of the top teams so far this season, and I expect it to get revenge on Los Angeles after their matchup went the Clippers’ way last month. This +400 SGP also features prop bets on Stephen Curry and James Harden.

Check out my Warriors vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 18.

Warriors vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Warriors moneyline + Harden over 19.5 points + Curry under 4.5 threes (+400)

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Warriors moneyline (-182): Golden State was a 9-point home favourite when it lost to L.A., 112-104, late last month. But that seems to have woken something up in the Warriors.

• GSW is 8-1 straight up and 7-2 ATS since then, rising to the top of the Western Conference

• In just the past two weeks, the Dubs have beaten the Celtics, Thunder and Mavericks

Are the Warriors just a pleasant surprise, or is this for real? They have the third-best net rating (+10.5) and rank third in opponent field goal rate (43.6%).

Golden State was off the past two days, while L.A. just hosted the Jazz last night. The Warriors are 11-2 straight up with a rest advantage since the start of last year, per Team Rankings, and I’m happy to ride their wave.

SGP legs

Harden over 19.5 points (-186): Remember when Harden averaged 30-plus points in three straight seasons? That was three teams and five-plus years ago … and it’s probably not coming back.

But Harden still gets plenty of shots up, and he’s a threat to hit the 20-point milestone every single night.

The 16th-year guard is averaging 20.6 PPG and has cashed this bet in eight of 14 games.

Despite an off night against the Warriors earlier this year (6-of-19 shooting), Harden got to the free-throw line nine times and still finished with 23 points.

Dating back to last season, Harden has tallied 21-plus points in four straight against the Warriors. His ceiling as a scorer isn’t at its peak, but his floor is still very high.

Curry under 4.5 threes (-137): Curry’s 3-point stroke is as elite as ever, but the shot volume is down. So he can still have a strong night from beyond the arc and miss this total.

• 43.2 3PT% (highest since 2018-19)
• 9.0 attempted 3s per game (lowest since 2014-15)

Curry has only played nine games, so it’s quite possible he’ll return to averaging 11-plus attempted 3s as he did in five of the previous six seasons.

This is a nice price to buy in on his volume dip, though, so that’s what I’m going to do.

This season, Curry has gone under 4.5 threes in seven of nine games. He’s also hit this under in five of seven against the Clippers since 2022-23.

Curry is listed as questionable with a knee injury, which is worth monitoring.

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 11/18/24.

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Dragging a seven-game losing skid with them, the Toronto Raptors host the Indiana Pacers at Scotiabank Arena tonight.

The pregame narrative: The road team won all four matchups between these teams last year, but I’m not picking a side on Monday. I’m backing the over on a teased-down total and looking for Bennedict Mathurin and Jakob Poeltl to chip in for their teams.

Check out my Pacers vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 18.

Pacers vs. Raptors predictions

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Parlay: Over 229.5 points + Poeltl over 9.5 rebounds + Mathurin over 19.5 points (+255)

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Over 229.5 points (-159): I don’t expect Toronto and Indiana to run up the score quite like they did last season, but this is still a very attainable total for them to clear.

All four of their head-to-head matchups last year went over the 250-point marker. Indiana played at the second-fastest pace in the league in 2023-24, though, which certainly helped.

The Pacers rank 16th in possessions per game this season, while Toronto is up a bit higher at 13th. Not lightning quick, but not exactly slow either.

I’m hoping these teams capture some of the high-scoring matchups that fuelled last season’s results, but there are other reasons to like this pick:

• The over is 9-2 in Indiana’s past 11 games

• The over is 4-2 in Toronto’s home games, with an average total of 237.5 points

SGP legs

Poeltl over 9.5 rebounds (-240): Nine years after he was a lottery pick for the Raptors, Poeltl is putting together some of the production you might expect from a once-highly-touted hooper.

The seven-footer is posting career-highs in minutes (32.6), points (16.2) and rebounds (11.6), averaging a double-double for the first time.

His steadiness on the glass is part of what makes Poeltl a good guy to bet on this season:

• 8+ rebounds in every game
• 10+ rebounds in 9/14 games

Last year, Poeltl had 10-plus rebounds in two of three matchups against the Pacers. Indiana is allowing the 11th-most rebounds per game to opposing centres, per Betting Pros.

Mathurin over 19.5 points (-177): The last time Mathurin faced the Raptors, he filled the next for 34 points on 11-of-15 shooting.

That was last season, but it’s a nice indicator of what the Montreal native is capable of. And after a few quiet games to begin this campaign, he’s putting up some really encouraging numbers.

Check out what Mathurin has accomplished over his past nine games:

• 51.6 FG%
• 45.7 3PT%
• 21.9 PPG
• 20+ points in 6/9 games

Mathurin slid into the Pacers’ starting lineup at the beginning of November and hasn’t left. In a game where I expect a hearty point total, look for the third-year wing to do his part.

Picks made at 10:25 a.m. on 11/18/24.

A new week of NBA action opens with eight games, including the surging Houston Rockets on the road against the struggling Milwaukee Bucks.

The latest: Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard are both on the injury report, but both are probable to play on Monday. Later on, the Golden State Warriors could be without their top star against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out today’s basketball schedule and our NBA odds for Nov. 18.

NBA odds: Nov. 18

Visit all of tonight’s NBA markets. Click on game odds below to bet now.

Chicago Bulls vs. Detroit Pistons

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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Miami Heat

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Washington Wizards vs. New York Knicks

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Indiana Pacers vs. Toronto Raptors

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Houston Rockets vs. Milwaukee Bucks

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Orlando Magic vs. Phoenix Suns

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Sacramento Kings

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Golden State Warriors vs. Los Angeles Clippers

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Betting insights

• Notable players who’ve been ruled out for Monday: Paolo Banchero, Scottie Barnes, DeMar DeRozan and Tyrese Maxey. Among the players with a questionable tag — as of 8:30 a.m. — are Stephen Curry and Joel Embiid.

• Toronto and Indiana’s four matchups last season were all track meets. The over went 4-0, and every game went over 250 points. Tonight’s total is set at 233.5 points, which is a total the Raptors have gone under in five of their past six.

• The highest overs rate of the young season belongs to the Hawks, who’ve hit the over in 11 of 14 games (78.6%). They’re on the road to face a Kings team that has the sixth-best offensive rating and has hit the over in four of their past five games.

• The Clippers have won four games in a row against the Warriors, including a 112-104 win on the road as 9-point underdogs last month. Los Angeles is an underdog again, this time at home, against a Golden State team whose only loss since their last meeting came against the unbeaten Cleveland Cavaliers. Oh, and the over has cashed in seven straight Warriors games.

The Utah Jazz are in Los Angeles on a back-to-back to face the Clippers in a late-night Sunday matchup.

The pregame narrative: Collin Sexton is getting more run for the Jazz these days, and I like him to fill the net for the visitors tonight. I’m also backing Utah on an alt spread and expecting Norman Powell to bounce back after a pair of quiet performances.

Check out my Jazz vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 17.

Jazz vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Jazz +13.5 + Powell over 19.5 points + Sexton over 14.5 points (+310)

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Jazz +13.5 (-182): Utah is just 6-6 ATS this season, but it’s showing a lot more fight in recent games.

The Jazz covered as 7-point underdogs last night and are now 4-2 ATS in their past six. They earned three straight-up victories as underdogs in that span.

With home-court and rest advantages, Los Angeles is the rightful favourite tonight. But I don’t see the Clippers covering a number this big.

L.A.’s largest margin of victory this season is 12 points, and its five other wins came by fewer than 10.

SGP legs

Powell over 19.5 points (-148): After back-to-back rough shooting performances, Powell is in a prime get-right spot against Utah.

Powell shot 8-for-29 (27.6%) over his past two games. Before that, he scored 20-plus points in 10 straight.

What makes the Jazz such a nice matchup for him?

• Utah allows the fifth-most points to opposing shooting guards (24.9), per Betting Pros

• Utah’s opponents have the fifth-highest 3-point percentage (37.4%)

If the Jazz are at all fatigued after playing last night, that should make Powell even more of a threat. But he’s cashing this prop at a sky-high clip against everybody so far this season.

Sexton over 14.5 points (-122): Sexton’s minutes are trending up, and so is his scoring volume. Go figure.

• First six games: 23.6 minutes, 9.3 FGA, 13.5 PPG
• Past six games: 30.2 minutes, 13.5 FGA, 18.3 PPG

Sexton has tallied 15-plus points in five of his past six games, as well as eight of 12 games on the year.

The Clippers are a solid defensive team, but this is a very attainable point total for a guy who’s reclaiming a nice role in the Jazz’s offence after averaging 18.7 PPG last season.

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 11/17/24.

There’s no shortage of NBA action on Sunday, and I’m backing three players on the prop market.

The pregame narrative: In the late window, look for Norman Powell to bounce back in a Grade-A matchup. I also like Josh Hart and Alperen Sengun to put up big rebound/assist totals.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 17.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Hart over 15.5 rebounds/assists (+102)

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This was one of my favourite prop markets to play last season, as Hart put in some truly absurd rebound/assist totals in the second half with Julius Randle out.

Well, Randle is gone — and so is Isaiah Hartenstein — which means the Knicks have a lot of rebounds up for grabs. Literally.

New York’s top rebounder is Karl-Anthony Towns (12.2 RPG), but Hart is next on the list (9.2 RPG). He’s also second on the team in assists per game (5.9).

KAT is questionable for tonight’s matchup against the Brooklyn Nets, but either way, this is an enticing price to back Hart.

Brooklyn is a solid matchup for players who like to contribute as rebounders and/or passers:

• 26th in rebounding rate (48.2%)
• 7th-most assists allowed per game

Two nights ago, Hart posted nine rebounds and nine assists against the Nets at Madison Square Garden. Over his past 10 games, he’s averaging 16.1 RA.

One thing about Hart is, barring foul trouble, he’s going to play a significant portion of the game. He’s averaging 36.8 minutes so far, which means lots of time to rack up stats.

Key stat: Hart has gone over 15.5 rebounds/assists in five of his past six games.

Quick picks

Powell over 20.5 points (-112): Powell only has 21 total points over his past two games thanks to some cold shooting, but I love his matchup tonight.

The Utah Jazz, who are playing on a back-to-back, allow the fifth-most points per game to opposing shooting guards (24.9), per Betting Pros.

Utah also allows the fifth-most attempted 3s per game and the fifth-highest opposing 3-point percentage. All of this is speaking Powell’s language.

Prior to his two-game funk, Powell hit this over eight games in a row.

On the season, he’s averaging 23.6 PPG while shooting 48.0% from 3-point range on 7.8 attempts.

The gravy train might get derailed whenever Kawhi Leonard returns, but I’ll enjoy it for now.

Sengun over 15.5 rebounds/assists (-108): The Chicago Bulls play at the fastest pace in the NBA. That means maximum opportunities for players to pile up rebounds and assists.

Sengun is averaging 15.9 RA this season and has cashed this bet in seven of 13 games. So he’s a decent candidate to hit this over regardless of opponent.

But I’m particularly bullish with Sengun facing the Bulls, who allow the most assists per game and the eighth-most rebounds.

At 6-foot-11, Sengun is more of a rebounder than a passer. But he has 27 assists over his past five games, so he can contribute just fine in that regard, too.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET on 11/17/2024.