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Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 21: With Barnes questionable, fade Reid and back Poeltl

Scottie Barnes is questionable to play against the Minnesota Timberwolves after logging a full practice on Wednesday, and that situation has influenced my prop picks for tonight.

The pregame narrative: The presence of the Toronto Raptors’ brightest star is partially why I’m looking to fade Naz Reid’s rebounding total for Thursday’s matchup. Meanwhile, Jakob Poeltl should still be able to contribute as a scorer for the home team.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks for Nov. 21.

Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks

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Best Bet: Reid under 5.5 rebounds (-127)

With or without Barnes on the court tonight, I’m skeptical that Reid can clear this over.

Last season’s Sixth Man of the Year is still coming off the bench, which caps his workload potential as he tends to see 22-26 minutes on most nights.

So far in those minutes, he’s routinely coming in under a 5.5-rebound total.

5.2 RPG on the season
Under 5.5 rebounds in 10/14 games
3.9 RPG in his past seven games

Minnesota and Toronto both have 7-footers at centre, and both squads allow bottom-10 rebounding totals per game. Simply put, there just might not be a lot of rebounds to go around.

Reid finished with four rebounds over 21 minutes when he saw the Raptors on Oct. 26.

Barnes played in that game and was one of four players who out-rebounded Reid, finishing with eight boards. If Barnes does return tonight, this looks like a smash play to me.

Key stat: Reid has finished under 5.5 rebounds in six of his past seven games.

Quick pick

Poeltl over 15.5 points (-105): If Barnes suits up, that’ll take a bite out of everyone else’s scoring potential — but I still think Poeltl can hit this over.

Remember, Barnes is a do-it-all player for the Raptors who is comfortable facilitating, too. He led the team in assists last year (6.1/game) and sits at 6.0 APG so far this year.

Poeltl is a guy that Barnes and the rest of the Raptors should be feeding right now.

17.1 PPG on 60.8% shooting this season

16+ points in 8/15 games

25+ points in three straight games

The Timberwolves allow the 11th-most points per game to opposing centres, per Betting Pros. Toronto should continue to lean on Poeltl, especially if Barnes needs an easing-in process.

Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/21/2024.

Magic vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions: Expect Harden to excel in +245 wager

The Orlando Magic look for their seventh-straight win on the road tonight against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The pregame narrative: The Magic are rolling right now but I have reason to back the Clippers on an alternate spread. I also like prop picks on James Harden and Ivica Zubac and will add them to make a +245 ticket.

Check out my Magic vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 20.

Magic vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers +6.5 + Harden over 7.5 assists + Zubac over 10.5 rebounds (+245)

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Clippers +6.5 (-177): The Magic have a chance to increase their streak to seven wins but I like the Clippers in this spot.

A majority of Orlando’s win streak came at home, where the team is 7-0. On the road, the Magic are just 2-6.

Before beating Phoenix on Monday, the Magic had lost six straight away games. The Phoenix win is good but considering four of those six losses came by double digits, I’m still considering Orlando a bad road side.

The Clippers took some time to get their first win at the new Inuit Dome, but since getting that victory, L.A. is 5-0 on its home floor.

I expect the Clippers to build off their most recent victory against the Golden State Warriors with another win in front of their home fans. But an alternate spread will more than suffice for this parlay.

SGP legs

Harden over 7.5 assists (-159): Harden is coming off back-to-back games putting up monstrous assist numbers:

16 assists vs. Warriors
11 assists vs. Jazz

He’s averaging 9.0 APG on the season and has another great opportunity to dish out assists tonight.

Norman Powell is out, and originally that made me want to jump in on Harden’s points prop. But I feel the point guard will have more assist chances as well with the added offensive responsibility.

Especially since this is such a modest number. Harden has double-digit assists in seven of 15 games this year and tonight he only needs eight to cash.

Zubac over 10.5 rebounds (-157): The Clippers centre has been a beast on the glass this season.

Zubac is averaging 12.4 rebounds per game

He has cleared this line in 12/15 games

He has 11+ rebounds in six of the last seven

Orlando holds opposing centres to the second-fewest rebounds (12.3) but I’m comfortable backing one of the better glass-cleaners in the NBA at this number. No need to overthink this one.

Picks made at 2:34 p.m. on 11/20/24.

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Best NBA prop bets Nov. 20: Fade Booker, back Draymond on Wednesday night

Coby White and Devin Booker are featured in tonight’s top prop picks for the eight-game NBA slate.

The pregame narrative: White has a tasty matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks and I’m fading Booker, whose injured Phoenix Suns are reeling. I also have a play on Draymond Green.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 20.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: White over 20.5 points (-121)

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Through 15 games, the Chicago Bulls point guard is averaging a career-high 19.9 points.

Tonight, he gets a juicy matchup that he exploited earlier this season. The 24-year-old torched the Bucks for a season-high 35 points in Chicago’s second game.

Targeting opposing PGs versus the Bucks has been a strategy of mine and there’s no reason to shy away from it tonight.

Milwaukee is surrendering the second-most points to PGs, per Betting Pros.

The Bucks have a -9.4 net rating when Damian Lillard is on the court, per Basketball Reference’s on/off numbers. Lillard averages a team-high 35.8 minutes per game.

Only five teams are allowing opponents to shoot better from 3-point range.

This all bodes well for White, who has two 25-plus-point games in his last three and has been excellent from deep.

White is drilling 3.6 threes per game on 9.0 attempts. Both are career-high marks.

He has nailed at least five triples in more than a third of his games and had a season-high seven when he lit up Lillard and the Bucks last month.

Key stat: White is 8-7 versus this line, landing on 20 points two of the times he fell short.

Quick picks

Booker under 38.5 pts/reb/ast (-109): Phoenix is built around a three-headed monster and two-thirds of it is on the sidelines tonight.

Wednesday marks the fifth consecutive game the Suns will play without Kevin Durant and Bradley Beal. They’ve lost all four of the previous matchups.

Phoenix is 1-5 since Durant went down with a calf injury.

With those two out, Booker becomes an easy target for opposing defences. The gifted scorer hasn’t upped his production without Durant.

His PRA stats are essentially flat, which doesn’t come close to this line.

Booker is averaging 33.4 PRA without Durant
He’s 1-5 vs. this line without Durant
The all-star is 3-12 vs. this line on the season

Booker would need to feast on a New York Knicks team that is sure to double-team him and throw excellent defenders his way, such as OG Anunoby.

Green over 22.5 PRA (-104): There’s value here ahead of what’s sure to be a high-scoring game.

As of early Wednesday afternoon, the over/under for Wednesday’s Atlanta Hawks and Golden State Warriors matchup is 239 points. That’s the highest total of the night.

The Hawks are a mess defensively and play at the third-fastest pace in the NBA, which should lead to an excellent night for the Warriors.

Golden State is 5th in pace and 5th in offensive rating
Atlanta is surrendering 119.5 PPG (28th in the NBA)
Warriors have scored 120-plus points in 3 of their last 4

This projects to be a strong environment for Green, the team’s second-leading rebounder, to produce across the board.

With Steph Curry probable, the assists should be there for Green. He has six-plus dimes in five straight.

Green is averaging 24.0 PRA in November, topping this line in six of eight games.

Picks made at 1:38 p.m. ET on 11/20/2024.

NBA schedule, odds and betting lines Nov. 20: Magic look to extend win streak against Clippers

Wednesday’s NBA slate has eight games, featuring a red-hot Eastern Conference team playing on the West Coast.

The latest: Five teams are 6.5-point favourites or greater, including the Cleveland Cavaliers who suffered their first defeat of the season to the Boston Celtics on Tuesday. Meanwhile, the surging Orlando Magic look to extend their winning streak to seven games when they play the Los Angeles Clippers at the Intuit Dome.

Check out today’s basketball betting lines and our NBA schedule for Nov. 20.

NBA schedule: Nov. 20

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Cleveland Cavaliers

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Chicago Bulls vs. Milwaukee Bucks

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Indiana Pacers vs. Houston Rockets

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Philadelphia 76ers vs. Memphis Grizzlies

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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Oklahoma City Thunders

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New York Knicks vs. Phoenix Suns

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Golden State Warriors

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Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Clippers

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Betting insights

Tonight’s over/under for Hawks vs. Warriors is 238.5 points, the second-highest projected total of the evening. Five of the last six games between these sides have gone over this mark. Atlanta is 11-4 on overs this season.

Indiana comes off a 130-119 defeat to the Raptors on Monday. The Pacers are 7-0 SU after a loss this season and own the best ATS record after a loss (33-16-2) since 2023. Houston is 6-2 ATS when playing at home this season.

Oklahoma City has beaten Portland in 13 consecutive games (10-3 ATS). The Trail Blazers could get Anfernee Simons back in the lineup after he missed the last two games due to illness. Portland are 3-0 ATS and SU in their last three games, including back-to-back upset victories over the Minnesota Timberwolves.

The Magic are on a six-game winning streak despite missing Paolo Banchero to injury. However, they are 2-6 ATS on the road this season. Meanwhile, the Clippers are 1-6 ATS after a win and are without Norman Powell (left hamstring strain) for this matchup.

Hawks vs. Warriors prop picks Nov. 20: Bet on Steph Curry to cook against Atlanta

The Atlanta Hawks wrap up their West Coast road trip tonight against Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: Curry’s points prop is my favourite bet of the night as he draws a really compelling matchup. I’m also looking for Dyson Daniels to continue being a defensive menace and for Clint Capela to have an impact as a rebounder.

Check out my Hawks vs. Warriors prop picks for Nov. 20.

Hawks vs. Warriors prop picks

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Best Bet: Curry over 25.5 points (-125)

After missing three games with an ankle injury, Curry has come back with impressive efficiency. Look at his splits over his past seven matchups:

50.0 FG%
43.5 3PT%
92.0 FT%

That’s resulted in 25.0 PPG this month, and it would be higher if not for a couple of minutes limitations caused by blowouts.

Curry sat out the fourth quarter on Nov. 15 against Memphis as his Warriors cruised to victory. His playing time was also cut short in a 19-point loss against Cleveland on Nov. 8.

A blowout is a risk tonight, as Golden State is an 8.5-point home favourite against Atlanta. But if that’s the case, hopefully it’s because Curry puts up some big numbers early that leads to the separation.

Opposing guards tend to love their matchup against the Hawks, and why not? Guards are shooting an NBA-best 39.9% from 3-point range against Atlanta.

Curry is attempting just south of 10.0 threes per game, so his opportunity to rack up points from deep is tantalizing.

The Hawks have already found this out the hard way.

In Curry’s past five games against Atlanta (since 2021), he’s scored 30-plus points four times while averaging 6.2 threes.

Key stat: Curry has gone over 25.5 points in four of his past six games. Also, he’s averaged 27.9 PPG at home since the 2022-23 season.

Quick pick

Capela over 7.5 rebounds (-150): Though he doesn’t play massive minutes, Capela grabs plenty of boards as the Hawks’ starting centre. There’s a lot of juice on this over, but that’s because of how attainable is it for a guy averaging 8.2 rebounds/game.

The 6-foot-10 veteran is on a roll right now, going over 7.5 rebounds in six straight matchups.

Atlanta and Golden State are both playing at top-five paces in the NBA right now, which should make for a game with plenty of possessions. And plenty of rebounds.

GSW allows the most rebounds/game to opposing centres (18.1), per Betting Pros

GSW allows the seventh-most rebounds/game overall (45.6)

Capela has 9+ rebounds in 6/7 games vs. GSW since 2021

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 11/20/2024.

Hawks vs. Warriors prop picks Nov. 20: Bet on Steph Curry to cook against Atlanta

The Atlanta Hawks wrap up their West Coast road trip tonight against Steph Curry and the Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: Curry’s points prop is my favourite bet of the night as he draws a really compelling matchup. I’m also looking for Dyson Daniels to continue being a defensive menace and for Clint Capela to have an impact as a rebounder.

Check out my Hawks vs. Warriors prop picks for Nov. 20.

Hawks vs. Warriors prop picks

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Best Bet: Curry over 25.5 points (-122)

After missing three games with an ankle injury, Curry has come back with impressive efficiency. Look at his splits over his past seven matchups:

50.0 FG%
43.5 3PT%
92.0 FT%

That’s resulted in 25.0 PPG this month, and it would be higher if not for a couple of minutes limitations caused by blowouts.

Curry sat out the fourth quarter on Nov. 15 against Memphis as his Warriors cruised to victory. His playing time was also cut short in a 19-point loss against Cleveland on Nov. 8.

A blowout is a risk tonight, as Golden State is an 8.5-point home favourite against Atlanta. But if that’s the case, hopefully it’s because Curry puts up some big numbers early that leads to the separation.

Opposing guards tend to love their matchup against the Hawks, and why not? Guards are shooting an NBA-best 39.9% from 3-point range against Atlanta.

Curry is attempting just south of 10.0 threes per game, so his opportunity to rack up points from deep is tantalizing.

The Hawks have already found this out the hard way.

In Curry’s past five games against Atlanta (since 2021), he’s scored 30-plus points four times while averaging 6.2 threes.

Key stat: Curry has gone over 25.5 points in four of his past six games. Also, he’s averaged 27.9 PPG at home since the 2022-23 season.

Quick pick

Daniels over 3.5 steals/blocks (-122): Daniels was the centrepiece of Atlanta’s trade that sent Dejounte Murray to New Orleans, and so far it’s working out really, really well.

The third-year combo guard is exceptionally active on the defensive end, leading the NBA in steals (3.4/game) and deflections (7.0/game).

He’s not just a steals threat, though. Daniels swatted four shots last time out and is averaging 1.1 blocks per game.

That equates to 4.5 stocks (steals/blocks) per game on the season, and it makes this line look a bit low.

Daniels has gone over 3.5 stocks in eight of 13 games this season — including six of his past seven.

Capela over 8.5 rebounds (-108): Though he doesn’t play massive minutes, Capela grabs plenty of boards as the Hawks’ starting centre.

The 6-foot-10 veteran is especially on a roll right now, going over 8.5 rebounds in five of his past six games.

Atlanta and Golden State are both playing at top-five paces in the NBA right now, which should make for a game with plenty of possessions. And plenty of rebounds.

GSW allows the most rebounds/game to opposing centres (18.1), per Betting Pros

GSW allows the seventh-most rebounds/game overall (45.6)

Capela has 9+ rebounds in 6/7 games vs. GSW since 2021

Picks made at 9:20 a.m. ET 11/20/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 19: Back Chris Paul, Luka Doncic and Jrue Holiday on Tuesday night

Luka Doncic, Chris Paul and Jrue Holiday make up my prop pick recommendations for tonight’s NBA Cup games.

The pregame narrative: Doncic on a combo market is my favourite play on Tuesday. I like Paul to contribute across the board and am backing Holiday to get points versus the 15-0 Cleveland Cavaliers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 19.

NBA prop bets

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Best bet: Doncic over 15.5 assists/rebounds (-127)

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The biggest concern with this play is Doncic’s availability.

He’s officially questionable after missing the Dallas Mavericks’ last game with a knee issue. Assuming Doncic does play, this is a light line for the Dallas superstar.

Doncic’s numbers are down this season but we know his upside is as big as nearly anyone’s on this market.

2019-20 RPG/APG: 18.2
2020-21 RPG/APG: 16.6
2021-22 RPG/APG: 17.8
2022-23 RPG/APG: 16.6
2023-24 RPG/APG: 19.0

The nightly triple-double threat is down to 15.6 through 13 games, but that number is at 16.5 in November.

The New Orleans Pelicans are a mess and facing a likely blowout situation. But Doncic can put up monster lines in reduced minutes.

This situation doesn’t require a deep dive into the numbers for me. It’s a plus matchup against a bad team.

Doncic’s assist/rebound line has largely been set at 16.5 or 17.5, so I’m happy to jump in on the dip.

Key stat: Doncic is 5-3 against this line in November.

Quick picks

Paul over 20.5 points/rebounds/assists (-118): Sticking with the combo markets, I like Paul to fill the stat sheet versus the Oklahoma City Thunder.

Victor Wembanyama is doubtful with a knee injury, so there’s risk the San Antonio Spurs get run out of the building against OKC (11-3, first in the West).

But Paul has a great opportunity on the glass and ranks seventh in the NBA in assists per game (8.4).

The Thunder are last in the NBA in rebounding rate and surrender the most boards to opposing point guards, per Betting Pros.

Paul faced them in October, scoring 14 points while adding another 14 assists/rebounds.

The veteran point guard is 7-4 against this number in his last 11 games and is averaging 22.5 PRA on the season.

Holiday over 12.5 points (-106): The highest-profile game of the night has a robust 234.5 total as of early Tuesday afternoon.

There are big scoring options on both sides but one player who shouldn’t be slept on is the Boston Celtics’ Holiday.

Point guards have shredded the Cavaliers and Holiday has been clearing this number with regularity this month.

Surprisingly, considering their record and No. 7 defensive rating, no team allows more points or 3-pointers to opposing PGs.

Holiday might not be a big scorer on this Celtics team, but he averaged 19.1 per game over six seasons before joining Boston, demonstrating his ability to put the ball in the net.

He’s just shy of two triples per game and is 6-2 against this line in November.

Picks made at 11:58 a.m. ET on 11/19/2024.

Jazz vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 19: Bet on LeBron James to dish out assists in +370 ticket

The Los Angeles Lakers look for their sixth-straight win tonight.

The pregame narrative: I’m taking an alternate spread to be safe but expect the Lakers to comfortably beat the Utah Jazz. Prop picks on LeBron James and Lauri Markkanen round out this +370 parlay.

Check out my Jazz vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 19.

Jazz vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Lakers -7.5 + James over 9.5 assists + Markkanen over 18.5 points (+370)

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Lakers -7.5 (-167): The Lakers are rolling right now so I’m comfortable backing this lofty alternate spread.

After all, they play at home against a struggling Jazz team.

Los Angeles is 6-0 at home (5-1 ATS)

Utah has a 109.3 offensive rating (fourth worst) and 120.8 defensive rating (second worst)

The Jazz are last in the Western Conference (3-10 record)

The Lakers offence is cooking under new coach JJ Reddick, scoring 116.8 points per game with a 47.8% field goal percentage. Both of those stats rank inside the top seven in the NBA.

Additionally, when the Jazz lose, it’s by a lot. Eight of their 10 losses have come by eight or more points.

SGP legs

James over 9.5 assists (-157): LeBron is truly remarkable. Even as the oldest player in the NBA, he is putting up crazy stats.

He is averaging 23.3 points, 9.2 assists and 8.6 rebounds

Over the past eight games, he is averaging 10.9 assists

James recorded double-digit assists in six of those contests

With the Jazz being one of the worst defensive teams in the association, LeBron should have an easy time breaking down the defence which will lead to assist opportunities.

Markkanen over 18.5 points (-150): The first two legs side with the Lakers but I found good reason to include Markkanen in this SGP.

The Finnish all-star is having a down year but a turnaround is imminent. He’s averaging 17.3 points currently but is coming off back-to-back seasons of averaging 23-plus.

And Los Angeles provides a nice matchup.

The Lakers allow the seventh-most points per game to power forwards (24.95)

They have the eighth-worst defensive rating (117.6)

It’s a bit of a weird case as Markkanen is shooting a career-high 45.6% from 3-point range. For some reason, he just isn’t taking very many shots.

He’s only taken 28 combined over the past three games but made 16 of them (57.1%).

Markkanen is at the top of the list for guys who should be traded this season so Utah should want to get him more involved to raise his otherwise diminishing value.

Picks made at 11:01 a.m. on 11/19/24.

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Cavaliers vs. Celtics same-game parlay predictions Nov. 19: Bet on Boston to win, White at +330

The Boston Celtics host the undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers in a massive measuring-stick game.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland is off to a torrid 15-0 start but I’ll side with the reigning champions at home. Prop bets on Derrick White and Evan Mobley round out this +330 SGP.

Check out my Cavaliers vs. Celtics same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 19.

Cavaliers vs. Celtics predictions

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Parlay: Celtics moneyline + White over 22.5 PRA + Mobley over 16.5 points (+330)

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Celtics moneyline (-186): If there was ever a game to fade the undefeated Cavs, it’s tonight.

Boston is 50-8 at TD Garden since the start of last season (regular season and playoffs included) and has won five of its last six against Cleveland on its famed parquet floors.

The Celtics are 11-3 through 14 games and those losses came by a combined 10 points. Two of them were at home but I’m still happy to roll with a team that has an 82.6% hit rate on its home court over the last two seasons.

One area I believe Boston can expose Cleveland is behind the 3-point line.

The Cavs are allowing opponents to shoot 37.8% from deep which is the third-highest rate in basketball. Boston attempts the most 3-pointers per game (51.1) and converts at the 11th-best rate (37.0%).

At the end of the day, Joe Mazzula has a roster of all-stars and Olympians at his disposal and I think they can extinguish the red-hot Cavs.

SGP legs

White over 22.5 PRA (-275): White might not be the biggest name on Boston’s roster but he’s extremely important.

The point guard is averaging 18.9 points, 4.5 rebounds and 4.3 assists a night (27.7 PRA) and is a lethal 3-point shooter.

He’s attempting 10.3 threes a night in November and is cashing in at a stellar 37.6% rate. White gets plenty of run and is active on the glass and in the passing game.

White is averaging 34.9 minutes per night
He’s cleared this mark in 8-of-9 games in November
Averaged 22.4 PRA against Cavaliers in playoffs on 39.0% 3-point shooting

Mobley over 16.5 points (-109): Boston has some flaws defensively this year which I think Mobley can exploit.

The Celtics allow opponents to shoot 43.0% in the midrange and 67.8% at the rim. That ranks 23rd and 20th in the NBA, respectively, according to Cleaning the Glass.

Mobley takes 28% of his shots from the midrange and 59% of hits shots at the rim, placing himself in the 70th and 68th percentile among all NBA players.

He’s averaging a career-best 18.1 PPG and has gone over this mark in three of his last five.

Picks made at 9:03 a.m. on 11/19/24.

NBA Cup schedule, odds and betting lines Nov. 19: Unbeaten Cavs host Celtics, Lakers look to stay hot

Tuesday night features a six-pack of NBA Cup games.

The latest: The reigning champion Boston Celtics host the undefeated Cleveland Cavaliers in an Eastern Conference heavyweight showdown. Later, the Los Angeles Lakers look to extend their winning streak to six.

Check out today’s basketball betting lines and our NBA schedule for Nov. 19.

NBA schedule: Nov. 19

Visit all of tonight’s NBA markets. Click on game odds below to bet now.

Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Boston Celtics

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Charlotte Hornets vs. Brooklyn Nets

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Denver Nuggets vs. Memphis Grizzlies

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New Orleans Pelicans vs. Dallas Mavericks

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Oklahoma City Thunder vs. San Antonio Spurs

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Utah Jazz vs. Los Angeles Lakers

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Betting insights

Cleveland is 15-0 and owns the second-best ATS record (11-4) in basketball. It has covered three straight double-digit spreads. The Celtics are 50-8 at TD Garden since the start of last season (regular season and playoffs) and have won five of their last six against the Cavs in Boston.

The one team with a better ATS record than the Cavs is the Brooklyn Nets (10-3-1). They’ve only been favourites three times this season and are 2-1 ATS in those games. The Charlotte Hornets, meanwhile, are 17-29 ATS as road underdogs since the start of last season.
The San Antonio Spurs host an Oklahoma City Thunder team that is 4-1 against them since 2023 with four double-digit wins. OKC is 3-1 ATS as a road favourite this season.

The Lakers are on a five-game winning streak behind some spectacular play from LeBron James and Anthony Davis. AD is averaging a career-high 31.1 points per game, while King James is at 22.2 points during the streak with four triple-doubles. L.A. hosts the Utah Jazz, who have the second-worst net rating in the NBA.