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Best NBA prop bets Nov. 23: Bet on LeBron, Wembanyama to shine on Saturday

It’s a star-studded cast for my NBA prop bets on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Both LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama are facing teams that are on road back-to-backs, and I like them to take advantage. Also, read why I expect Jaren Jackson Jr. to swat a couple of shots.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 23.

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Best bet: LeBron over 17.5 rebounds/assists (-113)

LeBron is an ageless, position-less superstar who somehow can still do whatever he wants at damn near 40 years old.

The 21-year veteran is averaging 17.6 rebounds/assists per game, which is notably above his career average (14.9 RA). He’s still an elite scorer — especially from 3-point land — but he’s backed off on shot volume in favour of helping the Los Angeles Lakers in other ways.

Shooting a career-low 17.0 FGA per game

His 9.3 APG is the second-highest average of his career

LeBron has 10+ assists in 8/15 games and 10+ rebounds in 6/15 games

The Denver Nuggets play at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, averaging 101.1 possessions per game. With more possessions comes more opportunities for rebounds and assists.

At 6-foot-9, LeBron is tall enough (and athletic enough) to be a factor on the glass every night. But where he’s really shining this year is as a passer.

LeBron is averaging 16.0 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com, which accounts for all passes that immediately lead to a shot. Next on the list for L.A. is Austin Reaves at 10.1, so it’s a sizeable gap.

Denver is playing a back-to-back, so perhaps a fatigued Nikola Jokic will cede some rebounding opportunities to LeBron.

The King is averaging 20.0 RA over his past nine games, and I like him to stay active in those stat categories tonight.

Key stat: In his past 12 games against the Nuggets (since May 2023, playoffs included), LeBron is averaging 16.6 RA and has cashed this bet six times.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 34.5 points/rebounds (-113): Wembanyama has missed three straight games with a knee injury and is questionable tonight. But if he plays, I like his chances of putting up big numbers against a Golden State Warriors team that likes to run.

Golden State ranks fifth in the NBA in pace (102.3 possessions/game)

Golden State allows the most rebounds per game to opposing centres, according to Betting Pros

Last year, Wembanyama had 41 points/rebounds in both home games against the Warriors

Wemby was on a tear right before his injury, averaging 34.0 points and 12.5 rebounds in a four-game span. Here’s hoping he can pick that back up in a favourable matchup.

Jackson over 1.5 blocks (-125): You don’t get the nickname of “Block Panther” by playing passive defence.

Jackson, a two-time block champion, has averaged 1.6 blocks per game or better in every season since 2019-20.

This year, the Michigan State product has multiple blocks in eight of 14 games — including four in a row.

Jackson had three blocks against the Chicago Bulls back on Oct. 28, and that’s who he’ll face tonight.

It’d make sense for Jackson to continue seeing ample shot-blocking opportunities against Chicago, given that the Bulls play at the fastest pace in the NBA (104.9 possessions/game).

Picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 11/23/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 22: Back guards Fox, Haliburton and White on Friday

It’s a point guard-heavy night for Friday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I have plays on Coby White, Tyrese Haliburton and De’Aaron Fox, covering three different betting markets.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 22.

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Best bet: White over 20.5 points (-114)

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White didn’t capitalize on a plus matchup in his last game but he gets another tonight.

He was held to 14 points against the Milwaukee Bucks, one of the worst teams in the NBA at containing point guards.

On Friday, his Chicago Bulls get the Atlanta Hawks, who allow the third-most points and 3-pointers to the position, according to Betting Pros.

White faced the Hawks earlier this month and dropped 18 points on 6-of-14 shooting but enters the night averaging a career-high 19.5 PPG.

He’s averaging 3.5 threes on 8.9 attempts (both career highs) and should excel from long range.

The Hawks are 30th in the NBA in opponent 3-point percentage and allow the most attempts per night.

Several point guards this month have topped 20 points against Atlanta, which ranks 28th in the NBA in PPG allowed.

Nov. 20: Steph Curry (23)
Nov. 18: Fox (28)
Nov. 15: Jordan Poole (22)
Nov. 8: Cade Cunningham (22)
Nov. 6: Jalen Brunson (21)
Nov. 1: Fox (21)

Key stat: White has cleared this line in 50% of his games, also finishing with 20 points twice.

Quick picks

Haliburton over 26.5 points/assists (-107): Haliburton isn’t playing well. But that doesn’t make him an auto-fade, especially on this combo market when he remains an upper-tier distributor.

He’s averaging 8.5 assists, eighth in the NBA, and has dished out 10-plus dimes in seven of 15 games.

That’s down from the double-digit totals he averaged the last two seasons, and his scoring dip is even more pronounced.

Haliburton enters the night with dreadful percentages from the field (37.5%) and long range (28.4%). Both represent career-low marks and his scoring average is down five points from a season ago.

But his struggles have been accounted for in this light line, which hovered around 30 earlier in the season.

Against Milwaukee, this is a good spot for Haliburton to get his scoring back on track.

The Bucks are 23rd in opponent 3PT%
They give up the fourth-most points to PGs
This game is tied for Friday’s second-highest total (236)

Haliburton averaged 27.0 points and 11.0 assists in five regular-season games against Milwaukee last season, clearing this line every time.

Fox over 5.5 assists (+108): There’s solid value here as Fox’s Sacramento Kings welcome back two of their best players.

Neither DeMar DeRozan nor Domantas Sabonis are listed on Friday’s injury report. DeRozan (22.9 PPG) has missed Sacramento’s last three games, where Fox went off for 60, 49 and 28 points.

That scoring production won’t continue with DeRozan and Sabonis returning. Sabonis, another 20-point scorer, has missed the last two.

As the point guard, it will be Fox’s job to get those two the ball against the Los Angeles Clippers tonight.

Fox is more of a scorer than a distributor but he’s topped this line in four straight and more than half his games this season.

Picks made at 12:19 p.m. ET on 11/22/2024.

NBA schedule, odds and betting lines Nov. 22: Mavericks play the Nuggets without Doncic

NBA Cup action is back with eight games set for Friday night.

The latest: The Dallas Mavericks look to extend their win streak to four games when they play the Denver Nuggets Before then, the struggling Philadelphia 76ers seek their third win as they host the Brooklyn Nets.

Check out today’s basketball betting lines and our NBA schedule for Nov. 22.

NBA odds: Nov. 22

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Brooklyn Nets vs. Philadelphia 76ers

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Boston Celtics vs. Washington Wizards

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Golden State Warriors vs. New Orleans Pelicans

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Indiana Pacers vs. Milwaukee Bucks

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Atlanta Hawks vs. Chicago Bulls

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Portland Trail Blazers vs. Houston Rockets

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Dallas Mavericks vs. Denver Nuggets

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Sacramento Kings vs. Los Angeles Clippers

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Betting insights

Dallas’ Luka Doncic will be out for at least a week due to a wrist strain. Among the players labelled as questionable for tonight are: Nikola Jokic, Brandon Ingram, Nic Claxton and Anfernee Simons.

Boston is a 16.5-point favourite at Washington, tied for the largest point spread of the season. The Wizards have lost their last nine games and are 0-5 ATS as a double-digit underdog this season.

Paul George is out for Philadelphia with a left knee bone bruise. The Sixers own the league’s worst ATS record at 3-11-0 and are 0-5 ATS as a favourite this season. Brooklyn is 9-3-1 in its last 13 games and is 8-2 ATS in its last 10 against Philly.

Tonight’s clash between the Hawks and Bulls is projected to be a track meet. The O/U total is set at 246, which is the highest for both teams this season. According to Statmuse, Chicago has the fastest pace (104.2) by a team and Atlanta plays at the third-fastest (103.3).

Indiana is 11-2 to the over in its 13 games. However, Milwaukee is 5-10 to the under this season. The total for this contest is 236.5, a mark the Bucks have exceeded just once in their last 13 games.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets prop picks Nov. 22: With Doncic out, back Irving and Lively

Friday’s matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Denver Nuggets is lacking serious star power.

The pregame narrative: Luka Doncic is out and Nikola Jokic is questionable after missing the last three games and yesterday’s practice for personal reasons. In their absence, I expect Kyrie Irving and Dereck Lively to step up.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Nuggets prop picks for Nov. 22.

Mavericks vs. Nuggets prop picks

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Best Bet: Irving over 25.5 points (-124)

Irving can’t miss right now but has routinely fallen under this line due to shot volume.

In November, the veteran guard is averaging 24.1 points per game on incredible 59.0/50.0/85.7 shooting splits. He’s 3-6 against this line this month, though, while attempting a middling 15.4 shots per game.

But he should see a serious uptick in volume with Doncic — who averages 22.6 FGA — sidelined.

Also, one of the games where Irving cleared this total was against the Nuggets on Nov. 10. In that contest, he went nuclear for 43 points on 17-of-22 shooting.

I don’t expect that to be replicated but will feel great about this bet if he takes anywhere near 22 shots.

Denver’s biggest defensive weakness is in the short midrange and the rim. Irving is an elite finisher in tight and doesn’t need to do damage beyond the arc to score.

With Jokic unlikely to play and Aaron Gordon out, there should be little resistance for the crafty guard getting to the rim.

Key stat: Irving has averaged 29.4 points in 12 games for Dallas without Doncic, cashing this bet in five of the previous six.

Quick pick

Lively over 14.5 points and rebounds (-124): All signs are pointing to Jokic missing this game, and if that’s the case it should be open season on the glass for Lively.

If the reigning MVP does suit up, it will make this bet a little tougher, but I still like the sophomore’s chances.

Lively doesn’t get a lot of run for the Mavericks but makes the most of his limited opportunities. In 23.4 minutes a night, he is averaging 8.6 points and 6.8 rebounds on 69.0% shooting.

The Nuggets are allowing the eighth-most paint points per game and Lively hasn’t taken a single shot outside of 14 feet from the basket this season, according to Cleaning the Glass.

In his last game against Denver (which Jokic played in), Lively had 14 points and eight rebounds coming off the bench.

Picks made at 10:16 a.m. ET 11/15/2024.

Kings vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 22: Murray, Coffey to fill the net in +275 SGP

Friday night’s NBA Cup action concludes with the Los Angeles Clippers hosting the Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: The Clippers will be shorthanded yet again tonight, with Kawhi Leonard and Norman Powell sitting out. Still, I like L.A. to cover as home underdogs and am adding prop bets on Keegan Murray and Amir Coffey to round out this +275 SGP.

Check out my Kings vs. Clippers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 22.

Kings vs. Clippers predictions

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Parlay: Clippers +6.5 + Murray over 1.5 threes + Coffey over 12.5 points (+275)

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Clippers +5.5 (-186): Powell scored a game-high 31 points when the Clippers and Kings met two weeks ago in a game L.A. won on the road, 107-98. So his absence is definitely notable.

But the Powell-less Clippers handled themselves just fine on Wednesday, winning by 11 against the Orlando Magic as 3-point dogs.

Tonight’s spread is about the same, and I feel great about backing the Clips with a little extra cushion.

L.A. has won six straight games at Intuit Dome, and it was an underdog in the two most recent ones (vs. Magic, vs. Warriors).

The Kings are 1-4 ATS in their past five games, losing twice outright as favourites in that span.

SGP legs

Murray over 1.5 threes (-167): I’m hoping Murray can shoot his way out of a slump. And stop fouling so much.

Murray fouled out after playing just 22 minutes on Monday, which is about 15 minutes below his nightly average. He also racked up five fouls the game before.

If he can keep himself in check, canning two or more 3s shouldn’t be a tall order. He’s a career 37.8% shooter from deep and is attempting 5.8 shots beyond the arc this year.

Unfortunately, he’s only connecting at a 29.9% clip. But given his track record, I still think he’s worth a look.

Murray has cashed this bet in eight of 15 games, and he attempted six 3s against the Clippers when he last faced them. That type of volume would put him in a great spot tonight.

Coffey over 12.5 points (-152): James Harden is having a dreadfully inefficient season and Ivica Zubac can only do so much from the paint with Domantas Sabonis on his back. Tonight should be a night for Coffey to make a mark.

On Wednesday, in his first start of the season, Coffey scored 18 points in 33 minutes.

He’s averaging 12.2 PPG over his past 10 games, which includes a 14-point effort off the bench against the Kings.

Coffey is shooting 46.4% from 3-point range on 3.5 attempts per game. That number should trend up with Powell on the shelf.

The Kings are a nice matchup for Coffey to exploit beyond the arc. Sacramento allows the fourth-highest 3-point percentage (38.0%) and the third-most attempted 3s per game (40.0).

Picks made at 12:30 p.m. on 11/22/24.

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Best NBA prop bet Nov. 21: Back Cade Cunningham on Thursday

I’m targeting Cade Cunningham as my best NBA prop bet tonight.

The pregame narrative: Cunningham has been putting up career-best numbers in points and assists and should stuff the stat sheet against the Charlotte Hornets.

Check out the best NBA prop bet for Nov. 21

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Best bet: Cunningham over 32.5 points/assists (-125)

Cunningham is averaging career highs in points (23.3), rebounds (7.3) and assists (8.8).

He hasn’t been particularly efficient from a scoring standpoint but ranks fourth league-wide in helpers and sees a nice matchup tonight:

Charlotte is 19th in defensive rating
The Hornets allow the 10th-most assists per game
They allow the ninth-most assists per game to PGs, according to Fantasy Pros

Cunningham narrowly fell under this line against Charlotte on Nov. 6 with a 20-point, 10-assist triple-double. But he also shot 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the field in that game, which is his third-lowest mark of the season.

Since then, the fourth-year point guard is 4-3 against this line with at least 30 points/assists in six of those games.

Considering Charlotte struggles to defend the midrange, he should have a bounce-back shooting night.

Cunningham takes 39% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 72nd percentile of all NBA players, per Cleaning the Glass.

Key stat: Cunningham leads the Pistons in field goal attempts (19.6/game) and ranks eighth in the NBA in potential assists (14.6/game).

Picks made at 2:38 p.m. ET on 11/21/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 21: Back Cade Cunningham and Stephon Castle

I’m targeting a pair of guards in today’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Cade Cunningham has been putting up career-best numbers in points and assists and should stuff the stat sheet against the Charlotte Hornets. Elsewhere, bet on Stephon Castle to light up the Utah Jazz.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for Nov. 21.

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Best bet: Cunningham over 32.5 points/assists (-103)

Cunningham is averaging career highs in points (23.3), rebounds (7.3) and assists (8.8).

He hasn’t been particularly efficient from a scoring standpoint but ranks fourth league-wide in helpers and sees a nice matchup tonight:

Charlotte is 19th in defensive rating
The Hornets allow the 10th-most assists per game
They allow the ninth-most assists per game to PGs, according to Fantasy Pros

Cunningham narrowly fell under this line against Charlotte on Nov. 6 with a 20-point, 10-assist triple-double. But he also shot 9-of-23 (39.1%) from the field in that game, which is his third-lowest mark of the season.

Since then, the fourth-year point guard is 4-3 against this line with at least 30 points/assists in six of those games.

Considering Charlotte struggles to defend the midrange, he should have a bounce-back shooting night.

Cunningham takes 39% of his shots from that area of the court, which ranks in the 72nd percentile of all NBA players, per Cleaning the Glass.

Key stat: Cunningham leads the Pistons in field goal attempts (19.6/game) and ranks eighth in the NBA in potential assists (14.6/game).

Quick picks

Castle over 14.5 points (-103): Castle has had a rough start to his NBA career.

The No. 4 pick is going the Scoot Henderson route, making just 38.2% of his field goal attempts while chucking up 9.1 shots per game.

But things have been getting better and he has a nice matchup tonight.

Castle is averaging 14.4 points per game across his last seven while shooting 43.8% from the field. Not great, but it’s an improvement.

Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell are both out tonight, meaning someone else will have to step up.

The Jazz are the league’s worst team at defending the midrange (45.0 opponent FG%) and rank 29th in defending the rim (70.8 opponent FG%).

Castle takes 37% of his shots at the rim and 29% from the midrange.

Picks made at 2:38 p.m. ET on 11/21/2024.

Magic vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 21: Ride with Wagner, alt under in +250 SGP

In the nightcap of the NBA’s four-game slate on Thursday, the Los Angeles Lakers host the Orlando Magic.

The pregame narrative: Orlando has been one of the toughest teams on the defensive end this season, which makes an alt under look like a nice play tonight. This +250 SGP also features prop bets on Anthony Davis and Franz Wagner.

Check out my Magic vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 21.

Magic vs. Lakers predictions

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Parlay: Under 222.5 points + Davis over 11.5 rebounds + Wagner over 22.5 points (+250)

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Under 222.5 points (-205): Unders are red hot for Orlando this month, cashing in nine of 11 games and seven in a row.

On the season, 12 of the Magic’s 16 games have gone under this total. They also recently had a streak of six consecutive games holding their opponents under 100 points, which is quite a feat in the modern NBA.

The Lakers, who rank fourth in offensive rating and 24th in defensive rating, aren’t as successful defending their own net. But neither team plays at an above-average pace, so I think Orlando can turn this game into a bit of a slog.

Dating back to the 2021-22 season, Orlando and L.A. have gone under this total in five of six matchups.

SGP legs

Davis over 11.5 rebounds (-177): Davis has never won a rebounding title, but he’s consistently one of the best rebounders in the league. Since the start of the 2022-23 season, Davis is averaging 12.5 RPG.

He’s a bit behind that number this year (11.4 RPG) but moving in the right direction. Davis has cashed this bet in four straight games.

Orlando isn’t an amazing matchup for opposing rebounders, but it’s not a terrible one, either. The Magic rank 14th in rebound rate (50.3%) and have allowed a player to cash this bet in three of their past five games.

Last season, Davis hauled in 19 and 13 rebounds, respectively, in his two matchups against Orlando.

Wagner over 22.5 points (-278): Wagner had a quiet night in Los Angeles yesterday (against the Clippers), but I think he can bounce back in the same building on Thursday.

Prior to Wednesday’s 14-point effort on 5-of-11 shooting, he’d cashed this bet in seven consecutive games.

Wagner is averaging 22.3 PPG on the season, which might make this look like a questionable pick given the juice. But it’s important to note that Paolo Banchero has been out since the start of this month, which raises Wagner’s ceiling as a volume shooter.

With Banchero (five games): 12.8 FGA (51.6 FG%), 17.8 PPG
Without Banchero (11 games): 19.9 FGA (45.7 FG%), 24.4 PPG

As Banchero remains sidelined with an oblique injury, Wagner should continue to shoot enough to cash this number regularly.

Picks made at 11:20 a.m. on 11/21/24.

Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks Nov. 21: With Barnes questionable, fade Reid and back Poeltl

Scottie Barnes is questionable to play against the Minnesota Timberwolves after logging a full practice on Wednesday, and that situation has influenced my prop picks for tonight.

The pregame narrative: The presence of the Toronto Raptors’ brightest star is partially why I’m looking to fade Naz Reid’s rebounding total for Thursday’s matchup. Meanwhile, Jakob Poeltl should still be able to contribute as a rebounder for the home team.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks for Nov. 21.

Timberwolves vs. Raptors prop picks

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Best Bet: Reid under 5.5 rebounds (-150)

With or without Barnes on the court tonight, I’m skeptical that Reid can clear this over.

Last season’s Sixth Man of the Year is still coming off the bench, which caps his workload potential as he tends to see 22-26 minutes on most nights.

So far in those minutes, he’s routinely coming in under a 5.5-rebound total.

5.2 RPG on the season
Under 5.5 rebounds in 10/14 games
3.9 RPG in his past seven games

Minnesota and Toronto both have 7-footers at centre, and both squads allow bottom-10 rebounding totals per game. Simply put, there just might not be a lot of rebounds to go around.

Reid finished with four rebounds over 21 minutes when he saw the Raptors on Oct. 26.

Barnes played in that game and was one of four players who out-rebounded Reid, finishing with eight boards. If Barnes does return tonight, this looks like a smash play to me.

Key stat: Reid has finished under 5.5 rebounds in six of his past seven games.

Quick pick

Poeltl over 10.5 rebounds (-134): Poeltl had 10 rebounds when he faced the T-Wolves last month, and that was in 30 minutes of game action.

The big man’s minutes have ticked up since then, and his rebounding volume has, too.

Poeltl has averaged 12.5 RPG over his past 12 games, cashing this bet eight times in that span — including four of his past six.

Ideally this pick works in concert with the Reid fade. If Poeltl goes over 10.5 rebounds tonight, that should make it more likely that Reid goes under 5.5.

Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET 11/21/2024.

NBA schedule, odds and betting lines Nov. 21: Red-hot Lakers host the Magic

Tonight’s four-game NBA slate is capped with two red-hot teams squaring off in a non-conference matchup.

The latest: The Orlando Magic are on a back-to-back and play a Los Angeles Lakers team which has won six straight. Before that, Victor Wembanyama will miss a third straight game for the San Antonio Spurs but Chris Paul is likely to suit up despite a thumb injury.

Check out today’s basketball betting lines and our NBA schedule for Nov. 21.

NBA odds: Nov. 21

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Detroit Pistons vs. Charlotte Hornets

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Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Toronto Raptors

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Utah Jazz vs. San Antonio Spurs

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Orlando Magic vs. Los Angeles Lakers

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Betting insights

Victor Wembanyama (right knee contusion) will miss his third straight game on Thursday. San Antonio is 4-9 SU when Wembanyama is inactive.

In recent seasons, matches between the Pistons and Hornets have been low-scoring affairs. The last seven games between them have all gone under.

Scottie Barnes could return for the Raptors on Thursday after participating fully in Wednesday’s practice. He has missed the last 11 games due to a right orbital fracture. Toronto is 30th in 3-point shots made (10.5) and attempted (31.0) per game. Meanwhile, Minnesota has allowed the fewest 3-point shots per game (11.5).

Orlando is 7-0 to the under in their last seven games. Tonight’s total between the Magic and Lakers is set at 217.5, a mark the Magic have gone under in nine of their past 10. The Lakers are on a six-game winning streak and are undefeated in all seven of their home games this season.