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Best NBA prop bets Nov. 25: Fade Towns, back Haliburton and Irving

Three stars are featured in Monday’s top NBA prop picks.

The pregame narrative: I’m riding point guards Tyrese Haliburton and Kyrie Irving and am fading Karl-Anthony Towns later in the night.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 25.

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Best bet: Haliburton over 26.5 points/assists (-124)

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Haliburton comfortably cleared this line against the Washington Wizards yesterday. I expect him to do it again tonight versus another bottom-feeder, the New Orleans Pelicans.

The Indiana Pacers PG has turned in a pair of strong efforts following a dismal, four-point dud last Wednesday.

While his shooting from the field remains a problem, he was strong from deep over those two games and piled up points/assists in both outings.

Nov. 24 vs. WSH: 21 points, 9 assists, 5 threes
Nov. 22 vs. MIL: 18 points, 9 assists, 4 threes

Both of those teams are plus matchups for point guards, which Haliburton took advantage of. While the Pelicans don’t get shredded by PGs the same way, they’ve been terrible defensively.

New Orleans is tied for last in the NBA in defensive rating and sits 28th in opponent effective field goal percentage.

Only two teams allow opponents to shoot better from the perimeter. Haliburton is taking a career-high 8.1 triples per game.

The 24-year-old had an 11/11 double-double when these teams met on Nov. 1, a Pelicans victory. New Orleans has just one win since then.

Key stat: Haliburton averaged more than 30 points/assists in consecutive seasons coming into the year.

Quick picks

Irving over 25.5 points (-121): The Dallas Mavericks are on a back-to-back but I don’t expect that to help the Atlanta Hawks slow down Irving tonight.

Atlanta surrenders 120.5 PPG (28th)
The Hawks are 30th in opponent 3P%
They allow the 5th-most points per game to PGs

Irving should eat and having Luka Doncic on the sidelines doesn’t hurt. Since joining the Mavs, Irving has averaged 28.5 points in 14 games without Doncic (per StatMuse).

He comes in with career-best marks from the field and long range and there should be as many shots available to Irving as he’d like.

Towns under 38.5 points/rebounds (-124): This is a huge number for any player to hit.

Nikola Jokic is second in the NBA in scoring and leads in rebounding and his points/rebounds line is only a point higher for this New York Knicks/Denver Nuggets game.

Towns (questionable, it should be noted) has been excellent, averaging 26.1 PPG and a career-high 12.5 rebounds. Still, he’s 7-8 versus this line.

New York is deep, with four players averaging 15-plus points, so Towns’ production from game to game is likely to be more sporadic than most go-to scoring options.

While he was in a different situation with the Minnesota Timberwolves, this is not a number Towns has had success with in recent matchups against Jokic’s Nuggets.

Over the last three seasons, playoffs included, Towns is 2-13 against this line when facing Jokic.

Only two centres have topped this number versus Jokic in 12 contests this season. None have done it over the last 10 games.

Making matters worse for Towns, the game is at the notoriously challenging Ball Arena in Denver.

Picks made at 10:46 a.m. ET on 11/25/2024.

Thunder vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Nov. 25: Back DeRozan, SGA and Williams at +285

The Sacramento Kings host the Oklahoma City Thunder in Monday’s NBA nightcap.

The pregame narrative: Sacramento has lost three straight and is on a back-to-back but I’m staying clear of picking a side. Instead, bet on DeMar DeRozan, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams in a +285 ticket.

Check out my Thunder vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 25.

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Parlay: DeRozan over 3.5 rebounds + Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 assists + Williams over 1.5 threes (+285)

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DeRozan over 3.5 rebounds (-137): I think this is a smash play at -137 and am also eyeing the over on DeRozan’s 4.5 rebound prop at +163.

The veteran small forward is averaging 4.3 boards this season and has at least five rebounds in four straight games. Overall, he’s cleared this mark in eight of 14 contests while playing 36.4 minutes a night.

OKC has been brutal on the glass for the last two seasons and sits dead last in rebounding rate.

Isaiah Hartenstein made his Thunder debut on Nov. 20 and picked up 14 rebounds, so that’s bound to change moving forward. But still, that’s only one man and he’s not going to play the full 48 minutes.

The Thunder give up the third-most rebounds to small forwards per game (9.18), per Fantasy Pros, and I expect DeRozan to be active on the glass.

SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander over 5.5 assists (-152): Gilgeous-Alexander is a scorer first and foremost but he’s elevated his game as a passer over the last two seasons.

The Canadian superstar averaged a career-best 6.2 assists per game last season and is sitting at 6.3 so far. He’s also averaging 12.9 potential assists per game, which ranks 13th in the league according to NBA.com.

SGA had at least four assists in 14 straight games and is 8-6 against this line in that span, with two eight-assist games in his last three outings.

Sacramento is a middling defensive team that gives up the seventh-most assists per game to point guards.

Williams over 1.5 threes (-286): The Kings’ biggest defensive weakness this season has been containing the perimeter.

Sacramento is letting opponents shoot 37.7% from beyond the arc, which is tied for the third-highest rate in the NBA.

OKC averages the eighth-most 3-point attempts per game and Williams is my pick to take advantage.

The third-year forward is shooting 39.0% from deep (2.0-of-5.1 per night) and just hit five 3s against the Portland Trail Blazers.

Picks made at 10:08 a.m. on 11/25/24.

Nets vs. Kings prop picks Nov. 24: Back DeMar DeRozan, Cam Thomas on Sunday night

Sunday’s NBA nightcap is a cross-conference matchup between the Brooklyn Nets and Sacramento Kings.

The pregame narrative: DeMar DeRozan had a tough shooting night in his first game back from injury but I expect him to rebound. On the other side, look for Cam Thomas to clear his 3-point total.

Check out my Nets vs. Kings prop picks for Nov. 24.

Nets vs. Kings prop picks

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Best Bet: DeRozan over 21.5 points (-112)

DeRozan was chugging before suffering a back injury against the Phoenix Suns on Nov. 13.

The veteran small forward was averaging 24.8 PPG on 52.6% shooting
He cleared this line in 8/11 games
And scored at least 20 points in 10/11 games

His floor as a scorer is high and I won’t let Friday’s 16-point stinker get in the way of that. DeRozan played 36 minutes — which is encouraging for a player returning from injury — and took 19 shots.

The Kings are going to need him to pick up the slack and the Nets are a good team to bounce back against.

Brooklyn allows opponents to shoot 43.0% from the midrange, which ranks 21st in the NBA according to Cleaning the Glass. DeRozan has made a career of killing teams in that area of the court, so expect a strong performance tonight.

Key stat: The Nets allow the third-most points per game to small forwards, according to Fantasy Pros.

Quick pick

Thomas over 2.5 threes (-118): Thomas broke out last season as a legitimate NBA scorer and he’s kept his foot on the gas in year four.

The shooting guard is averaging career highs in points (24.2), threes (2.8), field goal percentage (45.5) and 3-point percentage (38.5).

Thomas is a bit of a streaky shooter but the volume tends to be there. He’s second to Cameron Johnson on the Nets in 3-point attempts per game (7.3) and has cleared this mark in three of his last five games.

The Kings are allowing opponents to make threes at the eighth-highest rate in basketball (37.1%) so this should be a good matchup to exploit.

Picks made at 12:52 p.m. ET 11/24/2024.

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Raptors vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 24: Back Toronto, Dick in +350 wager

The Toronto Raptors seek redemption against the Cleveland Cavaliers tonight.

The pregame narrative: Cleveland thrashed Toronto in the season opener but I’m backing the Raps to cover a hefty alternate spread on the road. Prop bets on Gradey Dick and Evan Mobley round out this +350 wager.

Check out my Raptors vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 24.

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Parlay: Raptors +17.5 + Dick over 2.5 threes + Mobley over 14.5 points (+350)

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Raptors +17.5 (-220): Cleveland started its 15-game winning streak with a 136-106 beatdown of the Raptors on Oct. 23.

Do I think Toronto can get one back tonight? No. But do I think it can cover 17.5 points? Absolutely.

The Raps have shown plenty of progress since opening night despite their awful 4-12 record.

Toronto is 11-5 ATS (second-best to Cleveland)
It has won back-to-back games after taking a three-point loss to the Boston Celtics
It has covered this number in five straight and 14/15

Scottie Barnes is back in the lineup and that’s a boon for a team that was lacking offence. The fourth-year power forward is averaging 18.8 points, 6.8 rebounds and 6.0 assists and can make a difference all over the court.

Cleveland is a buzzsaw but has still only covered this number in six of 17 games (35.2%).

SGP legs

Dick over 2.5 threes (+145): The one suspect part of Cleveland’s resume is its 3-point defence.

The squad is letting opponents shoot 38.2% from beyond the arc, which is the second-worst mark in basketball.

Dick has looked like a star at points this season, scoring 30-plus points three times while shooting a respectable 34.3% from beyond the arc.

He leads all Raptors in 3-point makes (2.3) and attempts per game (6.9) and should be active tonight.

Mobley over 14.5 points (-250): I backed Mobley to clear his 16.5-point total in today’s NBA prop bets and will double dip on this teased-down line.

Barnes’ draftmate has been putting together his best offensive season yet, averaging a career-best 17.8 points per game.

He should be able to expose a Raptors defence that has been getting punished at the rim and in the short midrange. Check out these metrics provided by Cleaning the Glass:

24th in opponent FG% in the short midrange (43.9%)
26th in opponent FG% at the rim (69.3%)

Mobley takes 84% of his shots from those areas and converts them at a 60.3% clip.

The power forward has gone over this line in 11-of-17 games and scored 25 points against the Raps on opening night.

Picks made at 10:59 a.m. on 11/24/24.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 24: Bet on Siakam and Mobley

A pair of big men make up Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam gets one of the league’s worst defensive teams while Evan Mobley has an exploitable matchup.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 24.

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Best bet: Siakam over 23.5 points (-130)

I’m sure the Indiana Pacers didn’t want Pascal Siakam to be the alpha dog when they traded for him last year but that’s what’s happened.

Tyrese Haliburton is having a dreadful start to the season and Bennedict Mathurin isn’t quite there yet as a polished player.

Siakam is leading the team in points (20.8) and field goal attempts (14.6) per game and is shooting a respectable 55.4% from the floor.

He’s scored 20-plus points in four straight and five of his last six and is in good shape to keep the ball rolling against the Washington Wizards.

Washington has the worst defensive rating in basketball and gets eaten alive at the rim. Siakam isn’t a pure post player but he does a lot of his damage near the basket and can make shots from most places on the court.

Key stat: Siakam hasn’t played the Wizards since joining Indiana but averaged 30.5 PPG against them on 63.1% shooting in two games last year with the Toronto Raptors.

Quick picks

Mobley over 17.5 points (-108): I’ve been on the Mobley train all season and this is another nice spot to back the power forward.

The Raptors get annihilated at the rim and in the short midrange, according to Cleaning the Glass:

26th in opponent FG% at the rim (69.3%)
24th in opponent FG% in the short midrange (43.9%)

Mobley takes 84% of his shots from that area and converts them at a 60.3% clip. He’s averaging a career-best 17.8 points per game and has cleared this mark in four of his last six.

In Cleveland’s season-opening game against the Raptors, Mobley scored 25 points on 9-of-14 shooting.

Picks made at 8:33 a.m. ET on 11/24/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 24: Bet on Siakam, Lively and Mobley

A trio of big men make up Sunday’s NBA prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Pascal Siakam gets one of the league’s worst defensive teams while Dereck Lively and Evan Mobley have exploitable matchups.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 24.

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Embed: #101358

Best bet: Siakam over 23.5 points (-109)

I’m sure the Indiana Pacers didn’t want Pascal Siakam to be the alpha dog when they traded for him last year but that’s what’s happened.

Tyrese Haliburton is having a dreadful start to the season and Bennedict Mathurin isn’t quite there yet as a polished player.

Siakam is leading the team in points (20.8) and field goal attempts (14.6) per game and is shooting a respectable 55.4% from the floor.

He’s scored 20-plus points in four straight and five of his last six and is in good shape to keep the ball rolling against the Washington Wizards.

Washington has the worst defensive rating in basketball and gets eaten alive at the rim. Siakam isn’t a pure post player but he does a lot of his damage near the basket and can make shots from most places on the court.

Key stat: Siakam hasn’t played the Wizards since joining Indiana but averaged 30.5 PPG against them on 63.1% shooting in two games last year with the Toronto Raptors.

Quick picks

Mobley over 16.5 points (-130): I’ve been on the Mobley train all season and this is another nice spot to back the power forward.

The Raptors get annihilated at the rim and in the short midrange, according to Cleaning the Glass:

26th in opponent FG% at the rim (69.3%)
24th in opponent FG% in the short midrange (43.9%)

Mobley takes 84% of his shots from that area and converts them at a 60.3% clip. He’s averaging a career-best 17.8 points per game and has cleared this mark in four of his last six.

In Cleveland’s season-opening game against the Raptors, Mobley scored 25 points on 9-of-14 shooting.

Lively over 16.5 points and rebounds (-106): Daniel Gafford is questionable today with a shoulder injury. That’s worth watching because this is a smash play if Dallas’ starting centre can’t suit up.

But even if Gafford gets his normal amount of run, I like Lively’s chances of having a day.

Lively averages 8.8 points and 6.8 rebounds (15.6 P/R) in just over 20 minutes a night.
He’s shooting 71.0% on the season
Has gone over this line in 3/7 games in November (with exactly 16 P/R one time)

The Miami Heat struggle to defend near the basket and on the glass, ranking 20th in opponent FG% at the rim and 22nd in rebound rate.

Picks made at 8:33 a.m. ET on 11/24/2024.

Best NBA prop bets Nov. 23: Bet on LeBron, Wembanyama to shine on Saturday

It’s a star-studded cast for my NBA prop bets on Saturday night.

The pregame narrative: Both LeBron James and Victor Wembanyama are facing teams that are on road back-to-backs, and I like them to take advantage. Also, read why I expect Jaren Jackson Jr. to swat a couple of shots.

Check out the best NBA prop bets on Nov. 23.

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Best bet: LeBron over 17.5 rebounds/assists (-112)

LeBron is an ageless, position-less superstar who somehow can still do whatever he wants at damn near 40 years old.

The 21-year veteran is averaging 17.6 rebounds/assists per game, which is notably above his career average (14.9 RA). He’s still an elite scorer — especially from 3-point land — but he’s backed off on shot volume in favour of helping the Los Angeles Lakers in other ways.

Shooting a career-low 17.0 FGA per game

His 9.3 APG is the second-highest average of his career

LeBron has 10+ assists in 8/15 games and 10+ rebounds in 6/15 games

The Denver Nuggets play at the sixth-fastest pace in the NBA, averaging 101.1 possessions per game. With more possessions comes more opportunities for rebounds and assists.

At 6-foot-9, LeBron is tall enough (and athletic enough) to be a factor on the glass every night. But where he’s really shining this year is as a passer.

LeBron is averaging 16.0 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com, which accounts for all passes that immediately lead to a shot. Next on the list for L.A. is Austin Reaves at 10.1, so it’s a sizeable gap.

Denver is playing a back-to-back, so perhaps a fatigued Nikola Jokic will cede some rebounding opportunities to LeBron.

The King is averaging 20.0 RA over his past nine games, and I like him to stay active in those stat categories tonight.

Key stat: In his past 12 games against the Nuggets (since May 2023, playoffs included), LeBron is averaging 16.6 RA and has cashed this bet six times.

Quick picks

Wembanyama over 35.5 points/rebounds (-125): Wembanyama has missed three straight games with a knee injury and is questionable tonight. But if he plays, I like his chances of putting up big numbers against a Golden State Warriors team that likes to run.

Golden State ranks fifth in the NBA in pace (102.3 possessions/game)

Golden State allows the most rebounds per game to opposing centres, according to Betting Pros

Last year, Wembanyama had 41 points/rebounds in both home games against the Warriors

Wemby was on a tear right before his injury, averaging 34.0 points and 12.5 rebounds in a four-game span. Here’s hoping he can pick that back up in a favourable matchup.

Jackson over 1.5 blocks (-134): You don’t get the nickname of “Block Panther” by playing passive defence.

Jackson, a two-time block champion, has averaged 1.6 blocks per game or better in every season since 2019-20.

This year, the Michigan State product has multiple blocks in eight of 14 games — including four in a row.

Jackson had three blocks against the Chicago Bulls back on Oct. 28, and that’s who he’ll face tonight.

It’d make sense for Jackson to continue seeing ample shot-blocking opportunities against Chicago, given that the Bulls play at the fastest pace in the NBA (104.9 possessions/game).

Picks made at 2:05 p.m. ET on 11/23/2024.

NBA parlay picks Nov. 23: Bet on Rockets to dominate, Grizzlies/Bulls to score in bunches

Today’s NBA parlay picks include a team total, a game total and a spread.

The pregame narrative: Fading anybody on the road against the Orlando Magic has been a winning recipe, so I’m sticking to that by fading the Detroit Pistons’ team total. Elsewhere, the Houston Rockets should remain dominant at home while there should be ample scoring when the Memphis Grizzlies face the Chicago Bulls.

Check out the full NBA parlay picks for Nov. 23.

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Parlay: Pistons under 100.5 points + Rockets -9.5 + Grizzlies/Bulls over 233.5 points (+250)

Pistons under 100.5 points (-167): No team is defending its home court better than Orlando right now.

The Magic are 7-0 inside Kia Center with league-best marks in:

Opponent PPG (94.7)
Opponent FG% (41.6)
Defensive rating (97.4)
Net rating (17.4)

Each of the Magic’s past five opponents at home finished below 95 points, and I can’t see the Pistons bucking that trend.

Detroit is 22nd in the NBA in points per game on the road, averaging 109.0. That might make this under look questionable, but opponent and pace of play are paramount.

The Pistons and Magic are both among the seven slowest teams in terms of possessions per game. Orlando is happy to turn this into a slog against a Detroit squad that ranks 20th in offensive efficiency.

Last season, Detroit finished with just 91 points apiece in two road games at Orlando.

Other picks

Rockets -9.5 (-182): Are the Rockets the biggest surprises of the season? At 12-5, they’re at least in the conversation.

Houston, seeking its first playoff berth since 2020, ranks fifth in the NBA in net rating (+9.7)

The Rockets rank second in opponent eFG% (49.6) and third in opponent PPG (105.1)

At home, the Rockets are 8-2 this season with an average victory margin of 13.7 points. When they’re on the road to victory, they tend to bury the opposition.

Houston is also 8-2 ATS at home this season and 12-5 ATS overall.

Just last night, the Rockets beat the Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points. In Saturday’s rematch, another double-digit-point win should be in order.

Grizzlies/Bulls over 233.5 points (-239): Overs are 10-7 in Chicago games this year and 11-5 for Memphis. Get these two squads on the same court and watch the points pile up.

Tonight’s showdown is a melding of styles. The Bulls and Grizzlies rank first and third, respectively, in possessions per game, which means both are content to lace up for a track meet.

Last month, the Grizzlies hosted the Bulls at FedExForum and the teams shot a combined 45.5% from the floor. That’s nothing special, but since they played at such a frantic pace, they still combined for 249 points without needing overtime.

This over is 7-2 in Chicago’s past nine games, and seven of those went over this number.

Picks made at 2:00 p.m. on 11/23/2024.

Nuggets vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions Nov. 23: Jokic, Murray should contribute in +255 SGP

The Denver Nuggets have dominated the Los Angeles Lakers in recent matchups, but the Lakers are the favourites in tonight’s contest at Crypto.com Arena.

The pregame narrative: My +255 SGP for Saturday’s game features a trio of prop bets. I like Nikola Jokic to put up big numbers as a scorer, Austin Reaves to can multiple 3s and Jamal Murray to stay productive as a passer.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Lakers same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 23.

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Parlay: Jokic over 25.5 points + Reaves over 1.5 threes + Murray over 5.5 assists (+255)

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Jokic over 25.5 points (-175): Denver’s rotation looks a bit thinner this year than we’ve grown accustomed to, and that has forced Jokic to become even more of a do-it-all star than he already was.

Jokic is averaging a 30-point triple-double so far through 11 games. It’s no mystery why Jokic is the MVP frontrunner as we approach December.

My favourite way to back the Joker tonight is as a scorer. He’s gone over this point total in nine of 11 games so far.

The Lakers allow the seventh-most points per game (116.2), and Jokic is averaging 28.6 PPG against them in eight matchups since the start of last season.

SGP legs

Reaves over 1.5 threes (-295): This is the safest leg of the three, and for good reason. Reaves is having another solid year from beyond the arc on a healthy volume of shots.

On a career-high 7.5 attempted 3s per game, Reaves is shooting 36.3%. That equates to 2.7 makes per game, and he’s canned multiple 3s in eight of his past nine.

Simply put, this just isn’t much of an ask for a guy attempting more than seven 3s per night.

Last season — including the playoffs — Reaves cashed this bet in three of four home matchups against the Nuggets.

Murray over 5.5 assists (-130): I like this play as a straight wager, but it also fits nicely into this SGP (especially if Jokic is filling the net).

Murray had a slow start as a passer, averaging just 4.4 APG in his first five games. But he’s cashed this prop in all six games since.

Over his past eight matchups against the Lakers, Murray has averaged 8.0 APG. This year, L.A. has allowed the third-most assists per game to its opponents.

In November, Murray is averaging 11.0 potential assists per game.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 11/23/24.

NBA parlay picks Nov. 23: Bet on Rockets to dominate, Grizzlies/Bulls to score in bunches

Today’s NBA parlay picks include a team total, a game total and a spread.

The pregame narrative: Fading anybody on the road against the Orlando Magic has been a winning recipe, so I’m sticking to that by fading the Detroit Pistons’ team total. Elsewhere, the Houston Rockets should remain dominant at home while there should be ample scoring when the Memphis Grizzlies face the Chicago Bulls.

Check out the full NBA parlay picks for Nov. 23.

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Parlay: Pistons under 100.5 points + Rockets -9.5 + Grizzlies/Bulls over 233.5 points (+266)

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Pistons under 100.5 points (-162): No team is defending its home court better than Orlando right now.

The Magic are 7-0 inside Kia Center with league-best marks in:

Opponent PPG (94.7)
Opponent FG% (41.6)
Defensive rating (97.4)
Net rating (17.4)

Each of the Magic’s past five opponents at home finished below 95 points, and I can’t see the Pistons bucking that trend.

Detroit is 22nd in the NBA in points per game on the road, averaging 109.0. That might make this under look questionable, but opponent and pace of play are paramount.

The Pistons and Magic are both among the seven slowest teams in terms of possessions per game. Orlando is happy to turn this into a slog against a Detroit squad that ranks 20th in offensive efficiency.

Last season, Detroit finished with just 91 points apiece in two road games at Orlando.

Other picks

Rockets -9.5 (-177): Are the Rockets the biggest surprises of the season? At 12-5, they’re at least in the conversation.

Houston, seeking its first playoff berth since 2020, ranks fifth in the NBA in net rating (+9.7)

The Rockets rank second in opponent eFG% (49.6) and third in opponent PPG (105.1)

At home, the Rockets are 8-2 this season with an average victory margin of 13.7 points. When they’re on the road to victory, they tend to bury the opposition.

Houston is also 8-2 ATS at home this season and 12-5 ATS overall.

Just last night, the Rockets beat the Portland Trail Blazers by 28 points. In Saturday’s rematch, another double-digit-point win should be in order.

Grizzlies/Bulls over 233.5 points (-230): Overs are 10-7 in Chicago games this year and 11-5 for Memphis. Get these two squads on the same court and watch the points pile up.

Tonight’s showdown is a melding of styles. The Bulls and Grizzlies rank first and third, respectively, in possessions per game, which means both are content to lace up for a track meet.

Last month, the Grizzlies hosted the Bulls at FedExForum and the teams shot a combined 45.5% from the floor. That’s nothing special, but since they played at such a frantic pace, they still combined for 249 points without needing overtime.

This over is 7-2 in Chicago’s past nine games, and seven of those went over this number.

Picks made at 11:33 a.m. on 11/23/2024.