Category: NBA

Tonight’s only NBA game is a matchup between the Dallas Mavericks and Utah Jazz at 9:00 p.m. ET.

The pregame narrative: Dallas is a massive road favourite against the downtrodden Jazz, who are 2-8 with the league’s worst net rating. I expect Kyrie Irving to clear his point total and Dereck Lively II to be active on the glass.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Jazz props for Nov. 14.

Mavericks vs. Jazz props

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Best Bet: Irving over 24.5 points (-117)

This should simply come down to shot volume for Irving.

I backed Dallas’ point guard to go over 25.5 points against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday and that missed, but he still scored 21 on efficient 8-of-13 shooting.

He was third to Luka Doncic and Klay Thompson in field goal attempts in that game, who both shot below 50.0%. Maybe the Mavs would have won that game had Irving gotten a few more looks, but I digress.

Kyrie is on fire, shooting an incredible 61.1% from the field this month and 48.3% from deep.

On Sunday he dropped 43 points on the Denver Nuggets on 17-of-22 shooting (77.3%). The game before that he put up 29 against the Phoenix Suns while making 10-of-17 (58.8%).

The Jazz are a horrible defensive team that gives up the second-most points per game to shooting guards, per Fantasy Pros. This should be a game where Irving leads the charge.

Key stat: Irving has cleared this mark in five of his last eight games while averaging 27.1 points.

Quick pick

Lively over 8.5 rebounds (-107): The Mavericks are getting solid production out of Daniel Gafford but could use Lively more.

Dallas sits 26th in rebounding rate and the 7-foot-1 sophomore is a fiend on the glass — and an efficient scorer to boot (70.0 FG% this season).

He’s recorded double-digit boards in three of seven games while averaging 8.1 rebounds on just 23.1 minutes a night.

Lively had eight boards against the Warriors in his return from injury and should feast against a Jazz team allowing the fourth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres.

Picks made at 8:51 a.m. ET 11/14/2024.

The Phoenix Suns and Sacramento Kings meet for the second time this week.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix is on a back-to-back without Kevin Durant but I still like it to cover a massively teased-up spread. Fading Devin Booker and De’Aaron Fox rounds out this +250 ticket.

Check out my Suns vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Nov. 13.

Suns vs. Kings predictions

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Parlay: Suns +10.5 + Booker under 31.5 points + Fox under 26.5 points (+250)

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Suns +13.5 (-278): Sacramento beat Phoenix on Saturday night, 127-118, but that game required overtime.

Durant didn’t play but the Suns fought well and I expect them to battle once again without their star power forward.

The Kings are off to a middling 6-5 start. They’ve covered this line three times, but all of those wins were against bottom-six teams in net rating (Jazz, Raptors, Trail Blazers).

Phoenix is 9-2 and Mike Budenholzer has the squad playing relentless defence.

The Suns are holding opponents to the sixth-lowest effective FG% (52.7) and ninth-lowest mid-range shooting percentage (40.9%), per Cleaning the Glass.

Sacramento takes 40.5% of its shots from the mid-range, the most in the NBA.

SGP legs

Booker under 31.5 points (-220): Booker is one of the league’s premier scorers but this line asks a lot of him.

He did drop 31 last night but that was against the Jazz. Utah has the third-worst defensive rating and seventh-highest opponent field goal percentage.

Sacramento is a much better defensive team, ranking 12th in defensive rating and 11th in opponent FG%.

This has also proven to be a tough matchup for Booker. Since the start of last season, he is 0-6 against this line when playing the Kings, averaging 22.8 points per game.

Booker is unquestionably the guy in Phoenix with KD sidelined, but that cuts both ways. Mike Brown can solely focus his game plan around slowing the shooting guard, so don’t expect a nuclear performance.

He’s also gone under this line in six of nine without Durant since the start of last season (1-4 in last five).

Fox under 26.5 points (-210): Earlier I spoke about how Phoenix makes life difficult on its opponents in the mid-range.

Fox takes 45% of his shots from that area of the court which is in the 90th percentile of all players.

He’s still attempting plenty of shots with DeRozan in the mix but adding a career 21.3 PPG scorer naturally takes food off the table.

Fox has gone under this mark in seven of 11 games this season. He scored just 21 points on 43.5% shooting in 41 minutes against the Suns on Saturday.

NBA picks made at 12:13 p.m. on 11/13/24.

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Klay Thompson returns to San Francisco for the first time since leaving the Golden State Warriors.

The pregame narrative: Thompson’s reign as a Splash Brother was unforgettable but I’m looking to Kyrie Irving to produce for the Dallas Mavericks tonight. Draymond Green is also in line for a big rebounding game.

Check out my Mavericks vs. Warriors props for Nov. 12.

Mavericks vs. Warriors props

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Best Bet: Irving over 25.5 points (-108)

Thompson was acquired to provide efficient tertiary scoring and he hasn’t supplied it yet.

The veteran shooting guard is averaging 13.8 points on 41.8% shooting with two-thirds of his field goal attempts coming from beyond the arc.

Luka Doncic and Thompson are the team’s deep threats which has allowed Irving to do a ton of damage from the mid-range.

Last year, Irving averaged 25.6 points per game while attempting 7.3 threes a night. He’s putting up identical PPG numbers this season but has only attempted 5.8 threes with Thompson in the mix.

That should bode well for his point production against the Warriors.

Golden State has been elite at defending the perimeter but not the mid-range, according to Cleaning the Glass. It’s held opponents to the lowest 3-point percentage (31.9%) but is giving up the eighth-highest mid-range shooting percentage (43.1%).

Irving takes 46% of his shots in the mid-range which ranks in the 97th percentile for all NBA players.

Key stat: Irving has cleared this mark in five of his last seven games while averaging 28.0 points.

Quick pick

Green over 5.5 rebounds (-124): The Mavericks have had a serious rebounding problem this year.

They are 28th in rebounding rate and are giving up the ninth-most rebounds per game to opposing power forwards, according to fantasy pros.

Dereck Lively II is officially listed as questionable tonight and his return would be big for Dallas. But he was only playing 23.0 minutes a night before getting hurt and shouldn’t be a massive impact.

Green is still getting plenty of run in his 13th season and has been active on the glass, averaging 5.1 rebounds per game and clearing this mark in three of his last five.

The veteran cleared this mark in both games versus Dallas last year, logging seven and eight boards.

Picks made at 1:26 p.m. ET 11/12/2024.