Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Game 1: Bet on Minnesota to win, Edwards to light it up from 3-point range

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors embark on their second-round playoff series Tuesday night at Target Center.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota has a distinct rest advantage for Game 1, as Golden State is coming off a Game 7 road win on Sunday night. The Warriors have won three in a row against the Timberwolves, but these teams haven’t matched up since mid-January.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Game 1 on May 6, featuring Anthony Edwards and Steph Curry.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves ML | Edwards over 3.5 threes | Curry over 26.5 points (+350)

Timberwolves moneyline (-286): I’ll be awfully impressed, and stunned, if Golden State emerges with a win in Game 1.

The veteran-driven team was just in Houston on Sunday night to close out a seven-game series against the Rockets. That means two road playoff games in a span of three days, which is never an easy task.

Minnesota, meanwhile, will be coming off five days of rest. The T-Wolves are 13-7 with a rest advantage this year, per Team Rankings.

Golden State is 3-1 against Minnesota this year, but it’s been well over three months since these teams matched up. So I’m not putting much stock in that.

The T-Wolves are 11-1 at home since March and deserve respect for handling the Los Angeles Lakers in five games.

NBA SGP legs

Edwards over 3.5 threes (-154): Edwards went 0-for-11 from 3-point range in Minnesota’s first-round closeout game. You can look at that a couple of ways.

Pessimistically, you might say that that type of performance doesn’t warrant backing Edwards to cash this 3s milestone prop on Tuesday.

Optimistically, you might see upside in how many 3s he attempted despite the futility.

I reside in the latter camp. Edwards shot through the slump, and that gives me faith that he’s capable of operating with heavy volume regardless of the outcome.

  • Dating back to the regular season, Edwards has 4+ threes in 7 of his past 10 home games.
  • In four matchups vs. Golden State this year, Edwards shot 17-for-39 (43.6%), cashing this prop every time.

Curry over 26.5 points (-108): Curry put on two stellar performances in Minnesota earlier this season, putting up 31 points apiece while collectively shooting 14-for-28 from beyond the arc.

He struggled most of the way in Golden State’s series-clinching win on Sunday before finding his rhythm late with a 14-point fourth quarter.

The Baby-Faced Assassin is 37 now, but he can still turn back the clock in any given game.

Since the 2023 postseason, Curry has 27-plus points in 14 of 20 games.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions made at 3:32 p.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Game 1: Bet on Minnesota to win, Edwards to light it up from 3-point range

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions

The Minnesota Timberwolves and Golden State Warriors embark on their second-round playoff series Tuesday night at Target Center.

The pregame narrative: Minnesota has a distinct rest advantage for Game 1, as Golden State is coming off a Game 7 road win on Sunday night. The Warriors have won three in a row against the Timberwolves, but these teams haven’t matched up since mid-January.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for Game 1 on May 6, featuring Anthony Edwards and Steph Curry.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves ML | Edwards 4+ threes | Curry 25+ points (+300)

Timberwolves moneyline (-275): I’ll be awfully impressed, and stunned, if Golden State emerges with a win in Game 1.

The veteran-driven team was just in Houston on Sunday night to close out a seven-game series against the Rockets. That means two road playoff games in a span of three days, which is never an easy task.

Minnesota, meanwhile, will be coming off five days of rest. The T-Wolves are 13-7 with a rest advantage this year, per Team Rankings.

Golden State is 3-1 against Minnesota this year, but it’s been well over three months since these teams matched up. So I’m not putting much stock in that.

The T-Wolves are 11-1 at home since March and deserve respect for handling the Los Angeles Lakers in five games.

Embed: #113437

NBA SGP legs

Edwards 4+ threes (-136): Edwards went 0-for-11 from 3-point range in Minnesota’s first-round closeout game. You can look at that a couple of ways.

Pessimistically, you might say that that type of performance doesn’t warrant backing Edwards to cash this 3s milestone prop on Tuesday.

Optimistically, you might see upside in how many 3s he attempted despite the futility.

I reside in the latter camp. Edwards shot through the slump, and that gives me faith that he’s capable of operating with heavy volume regardless of the outcome.

  • Dating back to the regular season, Edwards has 4+ threes in 7 of his past 10 home games.
  • In four matchups vs. Golden State this year, Edwards shot 17-for-39 (43.6%), cashing this prop every time.

Curry 25+ points (-155): Curry put on two stellar performances in Minnesota earlier this season, putting up 31 points apiece while going 14-for-28 from beyond the arc.

He struggled most of the way in Golden State’s series-clinching win on Sunday before finding his rhythm late with a 14-point fourth quarter.

The Baby-Faced Assassin is 37 now, but he can still turn back the clock in any given game.

Since the 2023 postseason, Curry has 25-plus points in 14 of 20 games.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions made at 1:32 p.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets May 5: Look for Alonso to rake, fade Carroll amid slump

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets

The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets open a three-game series at Chase Field on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Ryne Nelson gets his first start of the year for the Diamondbacks after seven relief appearances. He tossed 4.0 innings of shutout ball against the Mets in a bulk relief role last week, but there’s still a pair of Mets worth backing against him.

Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are featured in my Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets for May 5, alongside Corbin Carroll.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets

Best Bet: Alonso over 1.5 bases (-106)

I’m not shying away from Alonso just because Arizona’s starting pitcher had a strong outing in this matchup last week.

If anything, it’s a plus that Alonso gets to see Nelson for a second time in a seven-day span.

And given their overall head-to-head history — Alonso is 4-for-9 with three home runs — I’m sure the Mets’ No. 3 hitter doesn’t mind.

Alonso is taking on anybody and everybody right now, putting up one of the best early-season slash lines in the majors: .344/.468/.656.

Is that kind of line sustainable? I’d think not, but Alonso is coming by his early-season success honestly.

According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 99th percentile in xSLG (.690) and the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate (58.8%).

Having just seen Nelson last week, I think Alonso should have a leg up in tonight’s matchup. Not that he’s needed that this season.

Key Stat: Alonso is averaging 2.3 bases per game and is 18-17 against this line.

Best MLB picks

Nimmo over 0.5 RBI (+155): I think this is a great price for Nimmo, who bats cleanup for the Mets.

Thanks to the efforts of Alonso, Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, Nimmo has had 81 plate appearances with runners on base so far. That’s 2.6 per game — second-most in MLB.

Alonso, Soto and Lindor are a combined 11-for-29 (.379) with nine extra-base hits and five walks against Nelson. So Nimmo’s RBI opportunities should keep on coming.

As for the man himself, Nimmo has cashed this prop in six of his past 12 games. And he’s 4-for-7 with a double and a triple against Nelson.

Carroll under 0.5 runs (+100): Carroll is in a mini slump right now, and I think it’s worth leaning into that trend with a thriving starter on the mound.

  • Carroll is 7-for-40 (.175) with 16 strikeouts in his past nine games. He has only scored twice in that span.
  • New York’s Griffin Canning is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his past three starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 5 of 6 starts this year.

Carroll is 0-for-3 against Canning, and the D-backs are collectively batting .175 against him with a .275 SLG in 43 plate appearances.

Even from the leadoff or No. 2 spot in Arizona’s order, I don’t expect Carroll to make much noise tonight.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 05/05/2025.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets May 5: Look for Alonso to rake, fade Carroll amid slump

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets

The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets open a three-game series at Chase Field on Monday night.

The pregame narrative: Ryne Nelson gets his first start of the year for the Diamondbacks after seven relief appearances. He tossed 4.0 innings of shutout ball against the Mets in a bulk relief role last week, but there’s still a pair of Mets worth backing against him.

Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are featured in my Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets for May 5, alongside Corbin Carroll.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets

Best Bet: Alonso over 1.5 bases (-103)

I’m not shying away from Alonso just because Arizona’s starting pitcher had a strong outing in this matchup last week.

If anything, it’s a plus that Alonso gets to see Nelson for a second time in a seven-day span.

And given their overall head-to-head history — Alonso is 4-for-9 with three home runs — I’m sure the Mets’ No. 3 hitter doesn’t mind.

Alonso is taking on anybody and everybody right now, putting up one of the best early-season slash lines in the majors: .344/.468/.656.

Is that kind of line sustainable? I’d think not, but Alonso is coming by his early-season success honestly.

According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 99th percentile in xSLG (.690) and the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate (58.8%).

Having just seen Nelson last week, I think Alonso should have a leg up in tonight’s matchup. Not that he’s needed that this season.

Key Stat: Alonso is averaging 2.3 bases per game and is 18-17 against this line.

Embed: #113411

Best MLB picks

Nimmo over 0.5 RBI (+175): I think this price is a steal for Nimmo, who bats cleanup for the Mets.

Thanks to the efforts of Alonso, Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, Nimmo has had 81 plate appearances with runners on base so far. That’s 2.6 per game — second-most in MLB.

Alonso, Soto and Lindor are a combined 11-for-29 (.379) with nine extra-base hits and five walks against Nelson. So Nimmo’s RBI opportunities should keep on coming.

As for the man himself, Nimmo has cashed this prop in six of his past 12 games. And he’s 4-for-7 with a double and a triple against Nelson.

Carroll under 0.5 runs (-108): Carroll is in a mini slump right now, and I think it’s worth leaning into that trend with a thriving starter on the mound.

  • Carroll is 7-for-40 (.175) with 16 strikeouts in his past nine games. He has only scored twice in that span.
  • New York’s Griffin Canning is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his past three starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 5 of 6 starts this year.

Carroll is 0-for-3 against Canning, and the D-backs are collectively batting .175 against him with a .275 SLG in 43 plate appearances.

Even from the leadoff or No. 2 spot in Arizona’s order, I don’t expect Carroll to make much noise tonight.

Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 05/05/2025.

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Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks Game 1: Bet on Jokic to shine, fade Holmgren

Nuggets vs. Thunder picks

A battle between two MVP finalists begins on Monday night as Nikola Jokic‘s Denver Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: Denver only played two days ago, but its blowout win in Game 7 against the Los Angeles Clippers meant that stars like Jokic didn’t need to shoulder a full workload. Jokic has been active as a rebounder and passer against the Thunder all season.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks featuring Chet Holmgren in Game 1 on May 5.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 22.5 rebounds and assists (-112)

One of the biggest knocks on last year’s top-seeded Thunder was their lack of frontcourt size. They addressed that concern in the offseason by bringing in Isaiah Hartenstein (7 feet, 255 pounds), and he’s been solid.

But Jokic has about 30 pounds on Hartenstein, and when push comes to shove — possibly in a literal sense — I’ll still bank on the three-time MVP having his way around the rim.

Let’s look at this prop market by splitting it into two, starting with rebounds.

  • The Thunder allowed the eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (15.28), per Betting Pros.
  • Jokic had 12+ rebounds in all four games vs. OKC this year.

As for passing, the Thunder allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season. But Jokic still averaged 11.5 assists in his four matchups against the Thunder.

And in the playoffs, Jokic has been among the most active passers in the league.

On a per-game basis, he ranks second in the postseason in assists (10.1), potential assists (18.1), and passes made (75.3).

Jokic averaged 27.3 RA against the Thunder this year, going 3-1 against this line. He had exactly 22 rebounds/assists in the outlier.

Key stat: During the regular season, Jokic averaged 22.9 RA in 70 matchups.

Game 1 prop prediction

Holmgren under 8.5 rebounds (-138): Fading a 7-foot-1 player on a rebound line like this might seem odd. But Holmgren is far from a traditional big.

At just 213 pounds, he’s not known to muscle people around in the paint. Sure, he’s got plenty of length, but he’s also a capable 3-point shooter who spends plenty of time on the perimeter.

Holmgren was 11-for-26 (42.3%) from deep in the first round of the playoffs. As a rebounder, he went 2-2 against this line but had just 10 total boards in the final two games.

During the regular season, Holmgren averaged 8.0 rebounds and went under this number in 18 of 32 games (56.3%). That includes a pair of home games against Denver.

If Hartenstein is matched up with Jokic most of the time, as I expect, this should be a worthwhile fade.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 10:08 a.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks Game 1: Bet on Jokic to shine, fade Holmgren

Nuggets vs. Thunder picks

A battle between two MVP finalists begins on Monday night as Nikola Jokic‘s Denver Nuggets visit Shai Gilgeous-Alexander’s Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: Denver only played two days ago, but its blowout win in Game 7 against the Los Angeles Clippers meant that stars like Jokic didn’t need to shoulder a full workload. Jokic has been active as a rebounder and passer against the Thunder all season.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks featuring Chet Holmgren in Game 1 on May 5.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 22.5 rebounds and assists (-118)

One of the biggest knocks on last year’s top-seeded Thunder was their lack of frontcourt size. They addressed that concern in the offseason by bringing in Isaiah Hartenstein (7 feet, 255 pounds), and he’s been solid.

But Jokic has about 30 pounds on Hartenstein, and when push comes to shove — possibly in a literal sense — I’ll still bank on the three-time MVP having his way around the rim.

Let’s look at this prop market by splitting it into two, starting with rebounds.

  • The Thunder allowed the eighth-most rebounds per game to opposing centres (15.28), per Betting Pros.
  • Jokic had 12+ rebounds in all four games vs. OKC this year.

As for passing, the Thunder allowed the fourth-fewest assists per game during the regular season. But Jokic still averaged 11.5 assists in his four matchups against the Thunder.

And in the playoffs, Jokic has been among the most active passers in the league.

On a per-game basis, he ranks second in the postseason in assists (10.1), potential assists (18.1), and passes made (75.3).

Jokic averaged 27.3 RA against the Thunder this year, going 3-1 against this line. He had exactly 22 rebounds/assists in the outlier.

Key stat: During the regular season, Jokic averaged 22.9 RA in 70 matchups.

Embed: #113405

Game 1 prop prediction

Holmgren under 8.5 rebounds (-143): Fading a 7-foot-1 player on a rebound line like this might seem odd. But Holmgren is far from a traditional big.

At just 213 pounds, he’s not known to muscle people around in the paint. Sure, he’s got plenty of length, but he’s also a capable 3-point shooter who spends plenty of time on the perimeter.

Holmgren was 11-for-26 (42.3%) from deep in the first round of the playoffs. As a rebounder, he went 2-2 against this line but had just 10 total boards in the final two games.

During the regular season, Holmgren averaged 8.0 rebounds and went under this number in 18 of 32 games (56.3%). That includes a pair of home games against Denver.

If Hartenstein is matched up with Jokic most of the time, as I expect, this should be a worthwhile fade.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 9:08 a.m. ET 05/05/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 1: Fade Chapman amid slump, back Torres with platoon advantage

MLB prop bets

There’s plenty of afternoon action around MLB, but I’m targeting the three latest starts for my MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: In Toronto, Alex Bregman looks to stay hot and has a nice price to record an RBI. On the West Coast, I’m looking to tail Gleyber Torres and fade Matt Chapman on their respective bases props.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 1.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Bregman over 0.5 RBI (+125)

Bregman is wielding a white-hot bat right now, and from the No. 3 spot in Boston’s order, I think this is a great way to back him.

  • The veteran third baseman has a 1.288 OPS in his past 13 games, totalling 12 RBI in that span.
  • He has 1+ RBI in 4 of 6 matchups since April 24.

Bregman has homered in both games so far this series, so obviously he can cash this on his own.

But RBI props are about opportunities with runners on base, and Bregman has had plenty of those, too.

Bregman has 70 plate appearances with runners on base so far, which is tied for the seventh-most in MLB.

In those PAs, Bregman has a .350/.429/.583 slash line (184 wRC+). That’s the ninth-highest wRC+ among players with 50-plus PAs with runners on.

Jose Berrios hasn’t been great in three home starts this year, allowing 17 hits and 11 runs in 16.2 innings.

I expect Jarren Duran to create some RBI opportunities for Bregman tonight. Boston’s leadoff man is 9-for-18 with eight extra-base hits against Berrios.

Key stat: Bregman is 7-for-29 with two doubles and two home runs (.517 SLG) against Berrios.

Best MLB picks

Torres over 1.5 bases (+125): Torres isn’t going to light up the radar gun with his batted-ball exit velocity, but his contact quality has been superb in the early stages of 2025.

Torres is below average in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. But check out his rankings in some other notable categories, per Baseball Savant:

  • 96th-percentile squared-up rate
  • 87th-percentile chase rate
  • 87th-percentile xBA

Torres is on a prove-it contract, having signed a one-year deal with the Tigers just after Christmas. He’s off to a solid start and is worth backing whenever there’s a left-hander on the mound.

Tonight, Torres faces Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. In their past matchups, Torres is 10-for-28 with two doubles and a homer.

Since 2023, Torres has a .274/.363/.505 slash line against LHPs. His 143 wRC+ against lefties in that span ranks 21st out of 127 qualified hitters.

Chapman under 1.5 bases (-143): I love this price on fading Chapman, who is 3-for-34 (.088) in his past 10 games.

Chapman will theoretically have a platoon advantage tonight against the left-handed Kyle Freeland, but that’s not a big part of his hitting profile.

Throughout his career, Chapman’s OPS against lefties (.818) is fewer than 40 points north of his OPS against righties (.779).

Also, it’s worth noting that Chapman is 1-for-8 lifetime against Freeland.

Chapman is a boom-or-bust hitter who hasn’t boomed in a while. He also leads the majors in walks (26 in 31 games), and any free passes issued tonight would be a plus for this pick.

MLB prop picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 05/01/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 1: Fade Chapman amid slump, back Torres with platoon advantage

MLB prop bets

There’s plenty of afternoon action around MLB, but I’m targeting the three latest starts for my MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: In Toronto, Alex Bregman looks to stay hot and has a nice price to record an RBI. On the West Coast, I’m looking to tail Gleyber Torres and fade Matt Chapman on their respective bases props.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 1.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Bregman over 0.5 RBI (+148)

Bregman is wielding a white-hot bat right now, and from the No. 3 spot in Boston’s order, I think this is a great way to back him.

  • The veteran third baseman has a 1.288 OPS in his past 13 games, totalling 12 RBI in that span.
  • He has 1+ RBI in 4 of 6 matchups since April 24.

Bregman has homered in both games so far this series, so obviously he can cash this on his own.

But RBI props are about opportunities with runners on base, and Bregman has had plenty of those, too.

Bregman has 70 plate appearances with runners on base so far, which is tied for the seventh-most in MLB.

In those PAs, Bregman has a .350/.429/.583 slash line (184 wRC+). That’s the ninth-highest wRC+ among players with 50-plus PAs with runners on.

Jose Berrios hasn’t been great in three home starts this year, allowing 17 hits and 11 runs in 16.2 innings.

I expect Jarren Duran to create some RBI opportunities for Bregman tonight. Boston’s leadoff man is 9-for-18 with eight extra-base hits against Berrios.

Key stat: Bregman is 7-for-29 with two doubles and two home runs (.517 SLG) against Berrios.

Embed: #113303

Best MLB picks

Torres over 1.5 bases (+130): Torres isn’t going to light up the radar gun with his batted-ball exit velocity, but his contact quality has been superb in the early stages of 2025.

Torres is below average in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. But check out his rankings in some other notable categories, per Baseball Savant:

  • 96th-percentile squared-up rate
  • 87th-percentile chase rate
  • 87th-percentile xBA

Torres is on a prove-it contract, having signed a one-year deal with the Tigers just after Christmas. He’s off to a solid start and is worth backing whenever there’s a left-hander on the mound.

Tonight, Torres faces Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. In their past matchups, Torres is 10-for-28 with two doubles and a homer.

Since 2023, Torres has a .274/.363/.505 slash line against LHPs. His 143 wRC+ against lefties in that span ranks 21st out of 127 qualified hitters.

Chapman under 1.5 bases (-124): I love this price on fading Chapman, who is 3-for-34 (.088) in his past 10 games.

Chapman will theoretically have a platoon advantage tonight against the left-handed Kyle Freeland, but that’s not a big part of his hitting profile.

Throughout his career, Chapman’s OPS against lefties (.818) is fewer than 40 points north of his OPS against righties (.779).

Also, it’s worth noting that Chapman is 1-for-8 lifetime against Freeland.

Chapman is a boom-or-bust hitter who hasn’t boomed in a while. He also leads the majors in walks (26 in 31 games), and any free passes issued tonight would be a plus for this pick.

MLB prop picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 05/01/2025.

Knicks vs. Pistons SGP predictions Game 6: Back Detroit on alt spread alongside Cunningham, Duren

Knicks vs. Pistons predictions

After an upset win on the road, the Detroit Pistons look to stay alive again in Thursday’s Game 6 versus the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: Despite trailing the series 3-2, the upstart Pistons have been the better team for significant stretches. Both clubs enter Game 6 hoping to turn around some poor shooting over the past two games.

My +450 SGP also features prop bets on Karl-Anthony Towns, Cade Cunningham and Jalen Duren. Check out my Knicks vs. Pistons playoff SGP predictions for Game 6 on May 1.

Knicks vs. Pistons predictions

Parlay: Pistons +3.5 | Towns 20+ points | Cunningham 8+ assists | Duren under 12.5 points (+460)

Pistons +3.5 (-210): The fourth quarter of Game 1 went haywire on Detroit, as the team turned a nine-point lead into a 13-point deficit in less than five minutes.

Some might’ve chalked that up to the young Pistons’ playoff inexperience, and maybe that’s fair. But they’ve learned quickly.

Detroit is 2-2 since then, dropping a pair of games by a combined three points. After a controversial non-call went against the Pistons at the end of Game 4, they responded by going into Madison Square Garden and staving off elimination.

It’s been a tight, physical series, and I could see yet another game decided on the final shot. I like Detroit to win outright, but I’ll buy some points for this SGP.

Embed: #113296

NBA SGP legs

Towns 20+ points (-250): The Knicks had a weirdly balanced scoring night in Game 5, with all five starters scoring between 15 and 19 points.

Assuming that anomaly doesn’t carry forward, Towns is as good a pick as any to step up in the scoring department.

  • Towns was at his best on the road in Games 3 and 4, scoring 58 total points while shooting 9-for-15 from 3-point range.
  • On the season, Towns has 20+ points in 6 of 8 games against the Pistons.

Foul trouble is the primary risk for KAT, who has finished with five fouls in back-to-back games.

But as someone who has only fouled out twice since December, Towns seems to know where to draw the line.

Cunningham 8+ assists (-286): Cunningham has been justifiably ball-dominant in this series, leading the Pistons in minutes, shots, points, assists, steals and turnovers.

There are several ways to back the former No. 1 overall pick, and this is what I’ve landed on.

Since December, Cunningham has averaged 8.9 APG in eight games against the Knicks — cashing this bet six times.

When the series was last in Detroit for Games 3 and 4, he tallied double-digit assists in both games.

Cunningham is averaging 18.4 potential assists per game, which denotes the number of passes that lead directly to a shot. That’s No. 2 among all playoff performers, and it means he should hit this milestone almost every night.

Duren under 12.5 points (-132): No matter what happens tonight, Duren is giving Pistons fans a lot to be excited about moving forward.

The 21-year-old is averaging a double-double in his first playoff round while posting a series-best 11.6 RPG.

I do still think there’s room to give him flowers and fade him at the same time, though. Detroit is just not asking the big man to do a lot on the offensive end.

  • Duren has attempted just 31 shots through five games. That’s the fewest of Detroit’s seven rotation players.
  • He has gone under 12.5 points in 4 of 5 games.

New York was tough on centres all year, according to Betting Pros, allowing the third-fewest points to the position during the regular season.

Knicks vs. Pistons predictions made at 9:15 a.m. ET 05/01/2025.

Nuggets vs. Clippers prop picks Game 6: Nikola Jokic should come up big for Denver

Nuggets vs. Clippers picks

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets look to wrap up their first-round series on Thursday night on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The pregame narrative: Jokic is coming off a quiet night offensively, but I’m backing the big man to clear his points total. On L.A.’s side of things, James Harden looks like a prime fade candidate.

Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 6 of the NBA first-round playoff series.

Clippers vs. Nuggets picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 26.5 points (-108)

Coming off his worst offensive game of the series, is this really the time to back Jokic?

I think so, because Jokic should enter Game 6 with a little more tread on his tires after taking a backseat to Jamal Murray last time out.

Jokic shot just 4-for-13 en route to a 13-point triple-double. Four of his Nuggets teammates outscored him, led by Murray (43 points) and Aaron Gordon (23).

Don’t let one game fool you, though. Jokic is still the leader of the pack in all facets for Denver, and he should be back in the centre of things for Game 6.

The Clippers are one of the best home teams in basketball. As they push to keep their season alive, Jokic should be the one tasked with leading Denver’s offence.

When he last played at Intuit Dome in Game 4, Jokic had 36 points on 14-of-25 shooting.

The three-time MVP averaged a career-best 29.6 PPG this season. He has cashed this bet in 40 of 75 games, regular season and playoffs included.

With 51.1/44.0/71.0 shooting splits in this series, Jokic is always capable of turning it on when his shot volume is high enough.

Key stat: In his past nine potential close-out games, dating back to 2023, Jokic has averaged 30.6 PPG. He’s 7-2 against this prop in those games.

Game 5 prop prediction

Harden under 21.5 points (-125): Harden was excellent in Game 1 of this series, scoring 32 points on 11-of-22 shooting. But he’s been on the decline ever since.

Look at Harden’s shot totals, in order, as the series has progressed: 22, 17, 14, 11 and 9.

That’s right, he only took nine shots in Game 5, behind guys like Ivica Zubac and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

This isn’t a new phenomenon for Harden, who has made a habit of disappearing in critical moments of previous postseasons.

In elimination games in 2022-24, Harden shot a combined 12-for-36 (.333) and scored just 36 total points. He went 0-3 against this points prop.

Harden has also fallen under 20.5 points in four straight games.

Nuggets vs. Clippers prop picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET 04/30/2025.