The Arizona Diamondbacks and New York Mets open a three-game series at Chase Field on Monday night.
The pregame narrative: Ryne Nelson gets his first start of the year for the Diamondbacks after seven relief appearances. He tossed 4.0 innings of shutout ball against the Mets in a bulk relief role last week, but there’s still a pair of Mets worth backing against him.
Pete Alonso and Brandon Nimmo are featured in my Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets for May 5, alongside Corbin Carroll.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop bets
Best Bet: Alonso over 1.5 bases (-106)
I’m not shying away from Alonso just because Arizona’s starting pitcher had a strong outing in this matchup last week.
If anything, it’s a plus that Alonso gets to see Nelson for a second time in a seven-day span.
And given their overall head-to-head history — Alonso is 4-for-9 with three home runs — I’m sure the Mets’ No. 3 hitter doesn’t mind.
Alonso is taking on anybody and everybody right now, putting up one of the best early-season slash lines in the majors: .344/.468/.656.
Is that kind of line sustainable? I’d think not, but Alonso is coming by his early-season success honestly.
According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 99th percentile in xSLG (.690) and the 98th percentile in hard-hit rate (58.8%).
Having just seen Nelson last week, I think Alonso should have a leg up in tonight’s matchup. Not that he’s needed that this season.
Key Stat: Alonso is averaging 2.3 bases per game and is 18-17 against this line.
Best MLB picks
Nimmo over 0.5 RBI (+155): I think this is a great price for Nimmo, who bats cleanup for the Mets.
Thanks to the efforts of Alonso, Juan Soto and Francisco Lindor, Nimmo has had 81 plate appearances with runners on base so far. That’s 2.6 per game — second-most in MLB.
Alonso, Soto and Lindor are a combined 11-for-29 (.379) with nine extra-base hits and five walks against Nelson. So Nimmo’s RBI opportunities should keep on coming.
As for the man himself, Nimmo has cashed this prop in six of his past 12 games. And he’s 4-for-7 with a double and a triple against Nelson.
Carroll under 0.5 runs (+100): Carroll is in a mini slump right now, and I think it’s worth leaning into that trend with a thriving starter on the mound.
- Carroll is 7-for-40 (.175) with 16 strikeouts in his past nine games. He has only scored twice in that span.
- New York’s Griffin Canning is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in his past three starts. He has allowed two or fewer runs in 5 of 6 starts this year.
Carroll is 0-for-3 against Canning, and the D-backs are collectively batting .175 against him with a .275 SLG in 43 plate appearances.
Even from the leadoff or No. 2 spot in Arizona’s order, I don’t expect Carroll to make much noise tonight.
Mets vs. Diamondbacks prop picks made at 12:30 p.m. ET on 05/05/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.