Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

Nuggets vs. Clippers prop picks Game 6: Nikola Jokic should come up big for Denver

Nuggets vs. Clippers picks

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets look to wrap up their first-round series on Thursday night on the road against the Los Angeles Clippers.

The pregame narrative: Jokic is coming off a quiet night offensively, but I’m backing the big man to clear his points total. On L.A.’s side of things, James Harden looks like a prime fade candidate.

Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 6 of the NBA first-round playoff series.

Clippers vs. Nuggets picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 27.5 points (-113)

Coming off his worst offensive game of the series, is this really the time to back Jokic?

I think so, because Jokic should enter Game 6 with a little more tread on his tires after taking a backseat to Jamal Murray last time out.

Jokic shot just 4-for-13 en route to a 13-point triple-double. Four of his Nuggets teammates outscored him, led by Murray (43 points) and Aaron Gordon (23).

Don’t let one game fool you, though. Jokic is still the leader of the pack in all facets for Denver, and he should be back in the centre of things for Game 6.

The Clippers are one of the best home teams in basketball. As they push to keep their season alive, Jokic should be the one tasked with leading Denver’s offence.

When he last played at Intuit Dome in Game 4, Jokic had 36 points on 14-of-25 shooting.

The three-time MVP averaged a career-best 29.6 PPG this season. He has cashed this bet in 40 of 75 games, regular season and playoffs included.

With 51.1/44.0/71.0 shooting splits in this series, Jokic is always capable of turning it on when his shot volume is high enough.

Key stat: In his past nine potential close-out games, dating back to 2023, Jokic has averaged 30.6 PPG. He’s 7-2 against this prop in those games.

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Game 5 prop prediction

Harden under 20.5 points (-109): Harden was excellent in Game 1 of this series, scoring 32 points on 11-of-22 shooting. But he’s been on the decline ever since.

Look at Harden’s shot totals, in order, as the series has progressed: 22, 17, 14, 11 and 9.

That’s right, he only took nine shots in Game 5, behind guys like Ivica Zubac and Bogdan Bogdanovic.

This isn’t a new phenomenon for Harden, who has made a habit of disappearing in critical moments of previous postseasons.

In elimination games in 2022-24, Harden shot a combined 12-for-36 (.333) and scored just 36 total points. He went 0-3 against this points prop.

Harden has also fallen under 20.5 points in four straight games.

Nuggets vs. Clippers prop picks made at 3:40 p.m. ET 04/30/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 30: Ride with Gunnar Henderson, fade Cristopher Sanchez

MLB prop bets

Gunnar Henderson hasn’t met expectations so far, but I think he’s worth backing on Wednesday night’s MLB prop market.

The pregame narrative: I like Henderson to take advantage of a lefty-on-righty matchup, which has been his bread and butter. I’m also backing Teoscar Hernandez to stay clutch at the plate while fading Cristopher Sanchez in his return from injury.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 30.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Hernandez over 0.5 RBI (+100)

As a cleanup hitter with three former MVPs batting ahead of him, Hernandez is in one of the most enviable spots in baseball.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that he leads the league in RBI (31) given all the talent around him. But he’s doing his part, too.

  • Hernandez ranks fifth in MLB with a .613 SLG.
  • He’s 14-for-33 (.424) with runners in scoring position. And his 234 wRC+ with RISP ranks 11th in the majors.
  • Hernandez is batting .400 with nine extra-base hits during his current eight-game hit streak.

Though Hernandez has plenty of home run power — he has nine HRs already — RBI props are more often about traffic on the basepaths.

And the trio of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman tend to provide that.

Ohtani and Freeman have been especially strong so far, posting a 159 and 172 wRC+, respectively. They’re also a combined 13-for-31 (.419) with seven walks and five extra-base hits against Miami starter Cal Quantrill.

Hernandez is 5-for-18 with a double and a homer against Quantrill. He should have opportunities to do more damage this afternoon.

Key stat: Hernandez has 1+ RBI in 13 of 28 games this season — including six of his past seven.

Best MLB picks

Henderson over 1.5 bases (+100): Henderson got hurt early in spring training and missed the first seven games of the season.

Is that an excuse for his slower-than-expected start? Not really, but it might be part of the reason that things haven’t quite clicked for last year’s fourth-place AL MVP finisher.

Henderson is still mashing the ball, ranking in the 99th percentile for average exit velocity and the 95th percentile for hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. He’s just not squaring it up often enough.

The left-hitting shortstop knows how to capitalize on a platoon advantage, though. He has a .932 OPS vs. righties this year (.901 career OPS vs. RHPs).

Henderson has cashed this bet in three of his past four games. And he’s 3-for-5 lifetime against Yankees right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who he’ll face tonight.

Sanchez under 5.5 Ks (-118): Sanchez was removed after 2.0 innings in his start last week due to tightness in his throwing arm.

It’s a good sign that he’s not missing a turn in the rotation, but I’m still a bit wary of a potential flare-up.

Furthermore, Sanchez hasn’t racked up strikeouts against the Washington Nationals in the past. The Nats’ active lineup has a paltry 13.0% K rate against Sanchez in 77 plate appearances (league average is 22.1%).

Sanchez was an all-star and a down-ballot Cy Young candidate last year with just a 7.6 K/9. He doesn’t need big strikeout numbers to succeed.

He went under this strikeout total in 19 of 31 starts last season, and I think he’ll do that again tonight.

MLB prop picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET on 04/30/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 30: Bet on Bichette, Bregman and Campbell at the plate

Blue Jays picks

The Toronto Blue Jays’ offence is in a dark place right now. But I’m still backing one of the Jays’ hitters as my favourite prop bet in Wednesday’s matchup.

The pregame narrative: Bo Bichette is underperforming his peripherals and looks like a strong pick to clear 1.5 bases against the Boston Red Sox. On the other side, backing Alex Bregman and Kristian Campbell at one hit apiece nets plus-money odds.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 30.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best Bet: Bichette over 1.5 bases (-112)

Bichette also has -112 odds to score, but this is a better way to back the shortstop on a market that’s within his control.

One thing I like about backing Bichette’s bases prop is that I know he’s up at the plate to swing.

His 3.8% walk rate ranks in the eighth percentile, per Baseball Savant, and his 37.7% chase rate ranks in the sixth percentile. And yet he only has a 14.4% K rate (87th percentile).

So he’s not picky about what he’ll swing at, and he often makes contact.

Bichette has made tons of great contact and isn’t properly being rewarded for it yet. He’s batting .290 with a .363 SLG, which lags well behind his .339 xBA and .516 xSLG.

Hopefully some positive regression is coming for Bichette against Red Sox starter Lucas Giolito, who doesn’t strike me as a very imposing pitcher.

Giolito last pitched in the majors in 2023. He allowed an AL-high 41 home runs and posted a 4.88 ERA.

From there, he spent the entire 2024 season on the shelf recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tonight marks his season debut after five rough outings in the minors (10 earned runs on 18 hits in 17.1 innings).

Key stat: Against Giolito, Bichette is 5-for-14 with two doubles and a home run (.714 SLG).

Quick pick

Parlay: Bregman, Campbell 1+ hits each (+102): The Blue Jays are rolling with a bullpen game on Wednesday, so this pick isn’t about any kind of specific matchup analysis. I’m just backing a pair of red-hot hitters.

Let’s start with Bregman, who’s batting .331 on the year and riding a nine-game hit streak into tonight.

Bregman is 15-for-36 (.417) in that span, coming off a three-hit night in the series opener.

According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 94th percentile or better in whiff rate, chase rate and squared-up rate, so the plate discipline is locked in right now.

Then there’s Campbell, an early AL Rookie of the Year contender who’s batting .313. He’s had three straight multi-hit games and owns a .979 OPS over his past 12.

Campbell, a 2023 draftee, soared through three minor league levels last year. He posted a .330/.439/.558 slash line along the way and has proven to be MLB-ready.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 04/30/2025.

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Best MLB prop bets April 30: Ride with Gunnar Henderson, fade Cristopher Sanchez

MLB prop bets

Gunnar Henderson hasn’t met expectations so far, but I think he’s worth backing on Wednesday night’s MLB prop market.

The pregame narrative: I like Henderson to take advantage of a lefty-on-righty matchup, which has been his bread and butter. I’m also backing Teoscar Hernandez to stay clutch at the plate while fading Cristopher Sanchez in his return from injury.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 30.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Hernandez over 0.5 RBI (+125)

As a cleanup hitter with three former MVPs batting ahead of him, Hernandez is in one of the most enviable spots in baseball.

It shouldn’t surprise anyone that he leads the league in RBI (31) given all the talent around him. But he’s doing his part, too.

  • Hernandez ranks fifth in MLB with a .613 SLG.
  • He’s 14-for-33 (.424) with runners in scoring position. And his 234 wRC+ with RISP ranks 11th in the majors.
  • Hernandez is batting .400 with nine extra-base hits during his current eight-game hit streak.

Though Hernandez has plenty of home run power — he has nine HRs already — RBI props are more often about traffic on the basepaths.

And the trio of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman tend to provide that.

Ohtani and Freeman have been especially strong so far, posting a 159 and 172 wRC+, respectively. They’re also a combined 13-for-31 (.419) with seven walks and five extra-base hits against Miami starter Cal Quantrill.

Hernandez is 5-for-18 with a double and a homer against Quantrill. He should have opportunities to do more damage this afternoon.

Key stat: Hernandez has 1+ RBI in 13 of 28 games this season — including six of his past seven.

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Best MLB picks

Henderson over 1.5 bases (-104): Henderson got hurt early in spring training and missed the first seven games of the season.

Is that an excuse for his slower-than-expected start? Not really, but it might be part of the reason that things haven’t quite clicked for last year’s fourth-place AL MVP finisher.

Henderson is still mashing the ball, ranking in the 99th percentile for average exit velocity and the 95th percentile for hard-hit rate, per Baseball Savant. He’s just not squaring it up often enough.

The left-hitting shortstop knows how to capitalize on a platoon advantage, though. He has a .932 OPS vs. righties this year (.901 career OPS vs. RHPs).

Henderson has cashed this bet in three of his past four games. And he’s 3-for-5 lifetime against Yankees right-hander Carlos Carrasco, who he’ll face tonight.

Sanchez under 5.5 Ks (-106): Sanchez was removed after 2.0 innings in his start last week due to tightness in his throwing arm.

It’s a good sign that he’s not missing a turn in the rotation, but I’m still a bit wary of a potential flare-up.

Furthermore, Sanchez hasn’t racked up strikeouts against the Washington Nationals in the past. The Nats’ active lineup has a paltry 13.0% K rate against Sanchez in 77 plate appearances (league average is 22.1%).

Sanchez was an all-star and a down-ballot Cy Young candidate last year with just a 7.6 K/9. He doesn’t need big strikeout numbers to succeed.

He went under this strikeout total in 19 of 31 starts last season, and I think he’ll do that again tonight.

MLB prop picks made at 11:30 a.m. ET on 04/30/2025.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers SGP predictions Game 5: Back LeBron as a rebounder, Minnesota on alt spread

Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions

The Los Angeles Lakers need a win to stay alive, as they host the Minnesota Timberwolves in Game 5 on Wednesday night.

The pregame narrative: I like Naz Reid to chip in for the T-Wolves and for the visitors to at least keep this one close. On the Lakers’ side, look for LeBron James and Rui Hachimura to play big minutes and put up numbers.

Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on Wednesday, April 30.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Timberwolves +9.5 | LeBron 8+ rebounds | Hachimura 2+ threes | Reid 10+ points (+525)

Timberwolves +9.5 (-215): The Lakers looked like they were going to even the series in Game 4, as they carried a nine-point lead into the final nine minutes.

But L.A.’s stars got tired, and Minnesota’s depth shone through.

Depth is a key differentiator in this series, and it’s a key reason why I wouldn’t count the T-Wolves out in any game.

The Lakers have five players at 140-plus minutes in this series. And nobody else with 75 or more.

The Timberwolves have three players at 140-plus minutes and five others at 75 minutes or more. So we’re talking about a true eight-man rotation versus a non-rotation.

Minnesota is 5-3 ATS and SU against L.A. this year. More importantly, the T-Wolves have covered a +9.5 spread in all eight games.

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NBA SGP legs

LeBron 8+ rebounds (-295): Coming off three straight games with 10-plus rebounds, this should be a perfectly attainable milestone for LeBron.

  • He has 8+ rebounds in 5 of 6 games vs. Minnesota since December (averaging 10.5 RPG in that span).
  • LeBron has 8+ rebounds in 18 of 25 playoff games since the start of 2023.

I don’t imagine LeBron will play 46 minutes again like in Game 4. But he’s going to be on the court as much as anybody, and the 6-foot-9 positionless superstar knows how to crash the boards.

Hachimura 2+ threes (-150): Hachimura is in JJ Redick’s circle of trust, as evidenced by his 41-minute workload in Game 4.

The Japanese forward made his minutes count, going 5-of-10 from 3-point range as part of a 23-point performance.

I expect another hearty workload for Hachimura, and if that pans out, he’ll see some quality looks from beyond the arc.

Hachimura is 10-of-23 (43.5%) from deep in this series and has cashed this bet three times. During the regular season, he was a 41.3% shooter beyond the arc.

Reid 10+ points (-167): Reid was stellar in Game 1, burying 6-of-9 threes as part of a 23-point effort off the bench.

He’s been a more modest contributor in the games since, but he’s still 3-1 against this scoring milestone overall in the series.

Reid, a likely free-agent-to-be, has 10-plus points in 61 of 84 games this year (72.6%). He averaged 14.2 PPG during the regular season and has already flashed his upside in the playoffs.

Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions made at 10:20 a.m. ET 04/30/2025.

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks Game 5: Bet on Jimmy Butler to shine for Golden State

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks

Jimmy Butler was a force in his return, and I expect another strong outing in Wednesday’s Game 5 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.

The pregame narrative: Alongside Butler, I’m backing Houston’s Amen Thompson to make noise as a rebounder. The Rockets need a win to keep their season alive.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks for Game 5 of the opening round.

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks

Best Bet: Butler over 18.5 points (-130)

After sitting out Game 3 with a pelvic injury, Butler’s stat line for Game 4 was anybody’s guess.

He came up big for the Warriors, finishing with 27 points in 40 minutes to lead them to a narrow victory. And that gives me faith that he can stay heavily involved with the series shifting back to Houston.

Butler’s 27-point night did include 12 free-throw attempts, but that’s not as fluky as it sounds.

The savvy vet is used to getting to the line with regularity, as he averaged 7.7 free-throw attempts with Golden State during the regular season.

Butler went 10-of-19 with six free throws in a 25-point showing during Game 1, then he got hurt in the first quarter of Game 2.

In Game 4, he attempted 12 shots to go with the 12 free-throw attempts. That’s plenty of volume to make this points prop attainable.

It’s been a defence-first series, but Butler is a central figure in Golden State’s offence and doesn’t seem hampered by his recent injury.

Key stat: Dating back to the start of the 2023 postseason, Butler has averaged 25.9 PPG and cashed this bet in 21 of 25 games.

Game 5 prop prediction

Thompson over 6.5 rebounds (-154): There’s quite a bit of juice on this prop, but I’d say it’s warranted.

  • Thompson averaged 8.2 rebounds this season, going over 6.5 boards in 45 of 69 games (65.2%).
  • The implied probability of -137 odds is 57.8%.
  • Thompson has 7+ rebounds in 6 of 9 matchups vs. Golden State this year, landing on exactly six boards in two of the outliers.

Golden State has committed to playing a small-ball lineup for most of this series, featuring 6-foot-6 Draymond Green at centre.

Thompson (6-foot-7) is big enough — and certainly athletic enough — to impose his will on the glass.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 4:05 p.m. ET 04/29/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 29: Bet on Rafael Devers to score, Bowden Francis to work deep

Blue Jays picks

Bowden Francis is expected to start for the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday when they host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: I have mixed feelings on Francis, but I do expect him to work deep into tonight’s game for Toronto. On Boston’s side of things, I’m targeting two platoon-advantaged hitters — Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 29.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best Bet: Francis over 17.5 outs (-130)

I faded Francis’ outs prop his last time out, and it cashed. I’m still not high on the right-hander based on the quality of contact he’s allowing, but I do think he can stick around for a fairly lengthy outing tonight.

The Blue Jays were off Monday, but that was on the heels of a doubleheader in New York on Sunday.

As it stands right now, the Jays appear to be lining up for a bullpen game tomorrow night before the four-man rotation turns over on Thursday.

With that in mind, it’d be really nice for Toronto to get some length from Francis. It’s no guarantee, but the team should be motivated to give him a longer leash in order to maximize relief options for Wednesday.

It also helps to know that Francis has great (albeit limited) numbers against the active Red Sox lineup:

  • .103 opponent BA (3-for-29)
  • .172 opponent SLG
  • 35.5 K%

Across two starts against Boston last season, Francis tossed 12.0 innings of scoreless, four-hit ball while striking out nine.

Key stat: Dating back to 2024, Francis has gone over 17.5 outs in five of his past six home starts.

Quick pick

Devers over 0.5 runs (-118): Francis has fared much better against righties than lefties this season, which makes the left-hitting Devers an enticing target in this matchup.

  • Francis vs. LHHs: .858 OPS
  • Francis vs. RHHs: .662 OPS

Devers’ .907 career OPS against righties means this platoon advantage works on both sides of the coin. And he’s doing a great job of getting on base right now.

Devers has reached base at least twice in eight of his past 11 games — and he’s scored in nine of this past 12.

From the No. 2 spot in Boston’s order, Devers is in a great spot to be driven in.

Abreu over 1.5 bases (+110): Someone I hope will have the chance to drive Devers in is Abreu, another hitter from the left side who enjoys facing righties.

The third-year outfielder has a career .280/.357/.505 slash line versus righties. By comparison, he’s only slugging .250 against lefties.

Abreu has gone over 1.5 bases in 11 of 24 starts. He ranks in the 80th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG and xwOBA.

Francis is allowing a .304 xBA (ninth percentile), so I think Abreu is well worth targeting tonight.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks Game 5: Bet on Jimmy Butler to shine for Golden State

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks

Jimmy Butler was a force in his return, and I expect another strong outing in Wednesday’s Game 5 matchup between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets.

The pregame narrative: Alongside Butler, I’m backing Houston’s Amen Thompson to make noise as a rebounder. The Rockets need a win to keep their season alive.

Check out my Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks for Game 5 of the opening round.

Warriors vs. Rockets prop picks

Best Bet: Butler over 18.5 points (-127)

After sitting out Game 3 with a pelvic injury, Butler’s stat line for Game 4 was anybody’s guess.

He came up big for the Warriors, finishing with 27 points in 40 minutes to lead them to a narrow victory. And that gives me faith that he can stay heavily involved with the series shifting back to Houston.

Butler’s 27-point night did include 12 free-throw attempts, but that’s not as fluky as it sounds.

The savvy vet is used to getting to the line with regularity, as he averaged 7.7 free-throw attempts with Golden State during the regular season.

Butler went 10-of-19 with six free throws in a 25-point showing during Game 1, then he got hurt in the first quarter of Game 2.

In Game 4, he attempted 12 shots to go with the 12 free-throw attempts. That’s plenty of volume to make this points prop attainable.

It’s been a defence-first series, but Butler is a central figure in Golden State’s offence and doesn’t seem hampered by his recent injury.

Key stat: Dating back to the start of the 2023 postseason, Butler has averaged 25.9 PPG and cashed this bet in 21 of 25 games.

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Game 5 prop prediction

Thompson over 6.5 rebounds (-137): There’s a fair bit of juice on this prop, but I’d say it’s warranted.

  • Thompson averaged 8.2 rebounds this season, going over 6.5 boards in 45 of 69 games (65.2%).
  • The implied probability of -137 odds is 57.8%.
  • Thompson has 7+ rebounds in 6 of 9 matchups vs. Golden State this year, landing on exactly six boards in two of the outliers.

Golden State has committed to playing a small-ball lineup for most of this series, featuring 6-foot-6 Draymond Green at centre.

Thompson (6-foot-7) is big enough — and certainly athletic enough — to impose his will on the glass.

Rockets vs. Warriors prop picks made at 3:45 p.m. ET 04/29/2025.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays prop picks April 29: Bet on Rafael Devers to score, Bowden Francis to work deep

Blue Jays picks

Bowden Francis is expected to start for the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday when they host the Boston Red Sox at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: I have mixed feelings on Francis, but I do expect him to work deep into tonight’s game for Toronto. On Boston’s side of things, I’m targeting two platoon-advantaged hitters — Rafael Devers and Wilyer Abreu.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 29.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best Bet: Francis over 17.5 outs (-129)

I faded Francis’ outs prop his last time out, and it cashed. I’m still not high on the right-hander based on the quality of contact he’s allowing, but I do think he can stick around for a fairly lengthy outing tonight.

The Blue Jays were off Monday, but that was on the heels of a doubleheader in New York on Sunday.

As it stands right now, the Jays appear to be lining up for a bullpen game tomorrow night before the four-man rotation turns over on Thursday.

With that in mind, it’d be really nice for Toronto to get some length from Francis. It’s no guarantee, but the team should be motivated to give him a longer leash in order to maximize relief options for Wednesday.

It also helps to know that Francis has great (albeit limited) numbers against the active Red Sox lineup:

  • .103 opponent BA (3-for-29)
  • .172 opponent SLG
  • 35.5 K%

Across two starts against Boston last season, Francis tossed 12.0 innings of scoreless, four-hit ball while striking out nine.

Key stat: Dating back to 2024, Francis has gone over 17.5 outs in five of his past six home starts.

Embed: #113226

Quick pick

Devers over 0.5 runs (-103): Francis has fared much better against righties than lefties this season, which makes the left-hitting Devers an enticing target in this matchup.

  • Francis vs. LHHs: .858 OPS
  • Francis vs. RHHs: .662 OPS

Devers’ .907 career OPS against righties means this platoon advantage works on both sides of the coin. And he’s doing a great job of getting on base right now.

Devers has reached base at least twice in eight of his past 11 games — and he’s scored in nine of this past 12.

From the No. 2 spot in Boston’s order, Devers is in a great spot to be driven in.

Abreu over 1.5 bases (+110): Someone I hope will have the chance to drive Devers in is Abreu, another hitter from the left side who enjoys facing righties.

The third-year outfielder has a career .280/.357/.505 slash line versus righties. By comparison, he’s only slugging .250 against lefties.

Abreu has gone over 1.5 bases in 11 of 24 starts. He ranks in the 80th percentile or better in hard-hit rate, barrel rate, xSLG and xwOBA.

Francis is allowing a .304 xBA (ninth percentile), so I think Abreu is well worth targeting tonight.

Red Sox vs. Blue Jays picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

Clippers vs. Nuggets SGP predictions Game 5: Back Kawhi Leonard, Aaron Gordon in +390 parlay

Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions

Knotted at two games apiece, the Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers meet at Ball Arena on Tuesday for Game 5.

The pregame narrative: This series has been played at a methodical pace, and an alt under looks like the play once again. This +390 SGP also features prop bets on Kawhi Leonard, James Harden and Aaron Gordon.

Check out my Clippers vs. Nuggets playoff SGP predictions for Game 5 on Tuesday, April 29.

Clippers vs. Nuggets predictions

Parlay: Under 212.5 points | Gordon under 1.5 threes | Harden 8+ assists | Leonard 20+ points (+390)

Under 212.5 points (-162): I have this pick in my +269 NBA parlay for Tuesday night, and it feels like a good way to get this SGP started.

Unders are 4-0 in this series, and three of the four games went under this total.

The exception was a game that went to overtime. But all four matchups totalled 207 points or fewer in regulation.

This series has been played at a snail’s pace, with the teams averaging just 91.13 possessions per game. For context, the slowest-paced team during the regular season averaged 96.51 possessions (Orlando Magic).

In five head-to-head meetings in Denver this year, unders are 4-1.

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NBA SGP legs

Gordon under 1.5 threes (-186): Gordon had a remarkably efficient season from 3-point range, but this is a tough matchup to excel in. Especially since he’s not putting up huge numbers volume-wise.

  • Gordon averaged 1.5 makes on 43.6 3PT% during the regular season.
  • So far in this series, he’s 5-for-13 (38.5%) from deep, hitting this under in 3 of 4 games.

The Clippers aren’t giving the Nuggets any room to breathe beyond the arc in this series, which is part of the reason why Gordon hasn’t taken many 3s.

Denver is attempting just 28.5 threes per game, which is the fewest of all playoff teams.

Gordon has gone under 1.5 threes in six of seven matchups against the Clippers overall this season. The opportunities just don’t seem to be there for him to have a big night beyond the arc.

Harden 8+ assists (-278): Harden is doing his thing as the primary facilitator for the Clippers, and I like his chances of putting up another solid assist total tonight.

  • Coming off an 11-assist effort, Harden has cashed this milestone in 3 of 4 playoff games.
  • He’s averaging 9.4 assists in eight matchups against Denver on the season.

Harden ranks fifth among playoff performers in potential assists per game (14.8), which denotes passes that immediately lead to a shot. I suspect he’ll continue putting his teammates in position to score.

Leonard 20+ points (-335): One of the teammates Harden should be particularly inclined to get the ball to is Leonard.

It’s been a great series for the ex-Toronto Raptor, who’s averaging 26.5 PPG on 56.2/47.6/87.5 shooting splits.

Leonard has 20-plus points in all four games, building on a stellar finish to the regular season.

Dating back to March 11, Leonard has now cashed this milestone points prop in 19 consecutive games.

It’s fair if you’d prefer to eschew a -335 parlay leg, but it takes this ticket from +240 to +390. Given how consistent Leonard has been, I’ll take it.

Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions made at 12:10 p.m. ET 04/29/2025.