Jordan Horrobin

Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.

NBA playoff prop bets April 29: Bet on Giannis, Wagner putting up points

NBA prop bets

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks are on the brink of elimination — but I expect the superstar to go down swinging.

The pregame narrative: Giannis is one of my three NBA prop targets on Tuesday night, alongside Orlando’s Franz Wagner and Detroit’s Tim Hardaway Jr. I think all three players have a solid opportunity to shine in their respective playoff matchups.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 29.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Wagner over 22.5 points (-120)

The Orlando Magic don’t have a very imaginative offence. It’s a lot of isolation action, with either Wagner or Paolo Banchero heaving the ball toward the rim as the shot clock winds down.

Of the 334 shot attempts Orlando has had this series, 202 of them (60.5%) have come from the Wagner/Banchero duo.

Banchero is the 1A to Wagner’s 1B, but they both have exceptionally high floors in terms of shot volume. Wagner has attempted 20-plus shots in all four first-round games.

More importantly, he has cashed this bet every time.

The 3-point shooting from Wagner has been poor (7-of-33, 21.2%), but unfortunately that’s not too far off the expectation.

His 29.5 3PT% this season was the worst in the NBA among players who attempted 4.5 threes or more per game.

What I’m fixated on is Wagner’s shot volume, which has remained high in spite of the inefficiency. If he’s in the realm of 20-plus field-goal attempts (and five or more attempted 3s), another over will be in play.

Key stat: Wagner is 5-0 against this prop in matchups against Boston this month, averaging 25.4 PPG in those games.

Best NBA picks

Giannis over 45.5 points/rebounds (-125): The Pacers haven’t done a good job of containing Giannis, but it really hasn’t mattered. They’re up 3-1 in the first-round series and will likely close things out tonight.

I do expect Giannis to go out with a bang, though, as he’s the only player who gives the Bucks any hope of winning.

  • Through four games, the Greek Freak is averaging 33.8 points and 14.3 rebounds.
  • He has 46 more points and 26 more rebounds than any other player in the series.

Giannis had 28 points on uncharacteristically inefficient shooting in Game 4 (9-for-20).

But he’s still 3-1 against this prop in this series, and he’s shooting 63.5% in eight matchups against the Pacers this season.

Hardaway over 2.5 threes (-125): Hardaway’s 3-point shooting volume was down this year, as he averaged fewer than 6.0 attempts for the first time since the 2016-17 season.

But he’s ratcheted the volume back up in the playoffs, and coming off two huge games beyond the arc, I think this is a great number to back him at.

In Game 3, Hardaway shot 7-for-12 from 3-point range. He followed that up with a 4-for-13 showing in Game 4.

All told, Hardaway is 3-1 against this prop against the Knicks in the first round, averaging 9.8 attempted 3s per game. I’ll take that volume every day.

NBA prop picks made at 10:40 a.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

NBA playoff prop bets April 29: Bet on Giannis, Wagner putting up points

NBA prop bets

Giannis Antetokounmpo’s Milwaukee Bucks are on the brink of elimination — but I expect the superstar to go down swinging.

The pregame narrative: Giannis is one of my three NBA prop targets on Tuesday night, alongside Orlando’s Franz Wagner and Detroit’s Tim Hardaway Jr. I think all three players have a solid opportunity to shine in their respective playoff matchups.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 29.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Wagner over 22.5 points (-120)

The Orlando Magic don’t have a very imaginative offence. It’s a lot of isolation action, with either Wagner or Paolo Banchero heaving the ball toward the rim as the shot clock winds down.

Of the 334 shot attempts Orlando has had this series, 202 of them (60.5%) have come from the Wagner/Banchero duo.

Banchero is the 1A to Wagner’s 1B, but they both have exceptionally high floors in terms of shot volume. Wagner has attempted 20-plus shots in all four first-round games.

More importantly, he has cashed this bet every time.

The 3-point shooting from Wagner has been poor (7-of-33, 21.2%), but unfortunately that’s not too far off the expectation.

His 29.5 3PT% this season was the worst in the NBA among players who attempted 4.5 threes or more per game.

What I’m fixated on is Wagner’s shot volume, which has remained high in spite of the inefficiency. If he’s in the realm of 20-plus field-goal attempts (and five or more attempted 3s), another over will be in play.

Key stat: Wagner is 5-0 against this prop in matchups against Boston this month, averaging 25.4 PPG in those games.

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Best NBA picks

Giannis over 45.5 points/rebounds (-122): The Pacers haven’t done a good job of containing Giannis, but it really hasn’t mattered. They’re up 3-1 in the first-round series and will likely close things out tonight.

I do expect Giannis to go out with a bang, though, as he’s the only player who gives the Bucks any hope of winning.

  • Through four games, the Greek Freak is averaging 33.8 points and 14.3 rebounds.
  • He has 46 more points and 26 more rebounds than any other player in the series.

Giannis had 28 points on uncharacteristically inefficient shooting in Game 4 (9-for-20).

But he’s still 3-1 against this prop in this series, and he’s shooting 63.5% in eight matchups against the Pacers this season.

Hardaway over 2.5 threes (-115): Hardaway’s 3-point shooting volume was down this year, as he averaged fewer than 6.0 attempts for the first time since the 2016-17 season.

But he’s ratcheted the volume back up in the playoffs, and coming off two huge games beyond the arc, I think this is a great number to back him at.

In Game 3, Hardaway shot 7-for-12 from 3-point range. He followed that up with a 4-for-13 showing in Game 4.

All told, Hardaway is 3-1 against this prop against the Knicks in the first round, averaging 9.8 attempted 3s per game. I’ll take that volume every day.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 04/29/2025.

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NBA playoff parlay picks April 29: Take an alt over in Celtics vs. Magic, back Knicks to win

NBA parlay picks

Tuesday night features a four-pack of NBA games, and I’ve got picks from three of them in this +269 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The New York Knicks try to close out their series at home against the Detroit Pistons, and I say they do it. I’m also backing a pair of alt totals, including the over in the Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics matchup.

Check out my NBA parlay picks for first-round playoff action on April 29.

NBA parlay picks

Parlay: Knicks ML | Clippers/Nuggets u212.5 points | Magic/Celtics o196.5 points (+265)

Knicks moneyline (-225): The Knicks were lucky to get out of Detroit with a pair of wins. Those games were decided by a combined three points, and one ended on a blown foul called (as admitted by the Game 3 crew chief).

Nonetheless, I think it’s closing time for this series.

Detroit really needed to win one at home, and now New York is back inside Madison Square Garden, where the home team is 28-11 as a favourite this season.

Jalen Brunson is clearly not at full strength, but he’s the best player in this series and it shows. He has 12-plus points in the fourth quarter of all four games.

Another tight game wouldn’t be surprising at all, which is why I’m simply making a moneyline pick for this matchup.

More NBA parlay legs

Clippers/Nuggets under 212.5 points (-175): Unders are 4-0 in this series, and I like for that trend to continue.

The highest-scoring game was the series opener, but only because of overtime. In regulation, none of the four games have surpassed 207 points.

A key reason for the limited offence has been the teams’ willingness to play a slow, methodical brand of basketball. They’re averaging just 91.13 possessions per game, which is the second-lowest of the eight series.

And that’s more than five possessions/game lower than the slowest team during the regular season (Magic, 96.51).

Unders are 4-1 when the Nuggets and Clippers face off in Denver, too.

Magic/Celtics over 196.5 points (-163): Betting the over when these two teams meet is scary, but it’s reasonable at this number.

  • The average total in seven head-to-head matchups between the Magic and Celtics this year is 198.6 points.
  • At this alt total, overs are 4-3.

The venue could make a difference as well, given that games tend to be more high-scoring in Boston than in Orlando.

Dating back to December 2023, these teams have averaged 212.6 total points in five matchups at TD Garden, cashing this bet four times.

Also, overs are 14-9 this year when Orlando is a road underdog, per Team Rankings.

NBA parlay picks made at 3:55 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.

NBA playoff parlay picks April 29: Take an alt over in Celtics vs. Magic, back Knicks to win

NBA parlay picks

Tuesday night features a four-pack of NBA games, and I’ve got picks from three of them in this +269 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The New York Knicks try to close out their series at home against the Detroit Pistons, and I say they do it. I’m also backing a pair of alt totals, including the over in the Orlando Magic vs. Boston Celtics matchup.

Check out my NBA parlay picks for first-round playoff action on April 29.

NBA parlay picks

Parlay: Knicks ML | Clippers/Nuggets u212.5 points | Magic/Celtics o196.5 points (+269)

Knicks moneyline (-230): The Knicks were lucky to get out of Detroit with a pair of wins. Those games were decided by a combined three points, and one ended on a blown foul called (as admitted by the Game 3 crew chief).

Nonetheless, I think it’s closing time for this series.

Detroit really needed to win one at home, and now New York is back inside Madison Square Garden, where the home team is 28-11 as a favourite this season.

Jalen Brunson is clearly not at full strength, but he’s the best player in this series and it shows. He has 12-plus points in the fourth quarter of all four games.

Another tight game wouldn’t be surprising at all, which is why I’m simply making a moneyline pick for this matchup.

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More NBA parlay legs

Clippers/Nuggets under 212.5 points (-162): Unders are 4-0 in this series, and I like for that trend to continue.

The highest-scoring game was the series opener, but only because of overtime. In regulation, none of the four games have surpassed 207 points.

A key reason for the limited offence has been the teams’ willingness to play a slow, methodical brand of basketball. They’re averaging just 91.13 possessions per game, which is the second-lowest of the eight series.

And that’s more than five possessions/game lower than the slowest team during the regular season (Magic, 96.51).

Unders are 4-1 when the Nuggets and Clippers face off in Denver, too.

Magic/Celtics over 196.5 points (-175): Betting the over when these two teams meet is scary, but it’s reasonable at this number.

  • The average total in seven head-to-head matchups between the Magic and Celtics this year is 198.6 points.
  • At this alt total, overs are 4-3.

The venue could make a difference as well, given that games tend to be more high-scoring in Boston than in Orlando.

Dating back to December 2023, these teams have averaged 212.6 total points in five matchups at TD Garden, cashing this bet four times.

Also, overs are 14-9 this year when Orlando is a road underdog, per Team Rankings.

NBA parlay picks made at 3:00 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.

Rockets vs. Warriors SGP predictions Game 4: Bet on Curry, Butler to guide Golden State

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions

The Golden State Warriors hope to have Jimmy Butler back tonight to help them stay ahead of the Houston Rockets in their first-round playoff matchup.

The pregame narrative: I’m backing Butler on a very modest assists prop, while Steph Curry and Amen Thompson should be relied upon to put up points. This four-leg, +420 SGP also features an alt total.

Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors playoff SGP predictions for April 28.

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Under 208.5 points | Curry 25+ points | Butler 4+ assists | Thompson 10+ points (+420)

Under 208.5 points (-205): Once again, the under cashed in Game 3 of this series. That marks seven consecutive unders when Houston and Golden State square off.

It makes sense, given that both teams ranked inside the top eight in scoring defence and defensive rating during the regular season.

The average point total in their eight head-to-head meetings is 200.8 points.

Houston and Golden State have now gone seven consecutive games in which one or both teams finished below 100 points.

In the playoffs, the Warriors’ defence ranks third in steals per game and opponent points on fast breaks. The Rockets’ defensive strength has been clogging the paint, where they’re allowing the second-fewest points of any playoff team.

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NBA SGP legs

Curry 25+ points (-186): Curry has been superb in this series, cresting the 30-point mark twice in three games.

Houston is typically one of the best 3-point defences in the league … but Curry is no average foe. He’s 14-of-31 from deep and should continue firing from the outside.

Curry’s 24.5 PPG scoring average this year was his lowest in a full season since 2014-15. But he knows how to turn it up in the playoffs.

  • Over his past 16 playoff games — dating back to 2023 — Curry is averaging 30.2 PPG.
  • He has 25+ points in 13 of those 16 matchups.

Butler’s potential return could mean fewer shooting opportunities, but I still expect Curry to reach this milestone.

In his past 25 games alongside Butler, Curry is averaging 26.5 PPG.

Butler 4+ assists (-435): I considered playing Butler over 5.5 assists as a straight wager. This dumbed-down milestone should be comfortably attainable.

  • Prior to going down with an injury in Game 2, Butler had averaged 5.9 APG with the Warriors in 31 games.
  • During his regular-season tenure with Golden State, Butler led the team in assists (5.9/game) and potential assists (12.6).
  • Butler had 4+ assists in 27 of 31 games when healthy for the Warriors.

He may have the nickname “Jimmy Buckets,” but Butler is more than capable of swinging to an open teammate.

Thompson 10+ points (-235): Thompson made strides across the board in his sophomore season as he took more ownership within the Rockets’ offence.

He’s still not an outside scoring threat, but he’s always in play for 10 or more points.

  • Thompson has 30 points in this series, going 2-1 against this line. He missed out in the series opener with eight points on nine shots (uncharacteristically going 0-for-4 from the free-throw line).
  • Since the start of the season, Thompson has 10+ points in 6 of 8 meetings with the Warriors.

Last time out, Thompson was just 5-of-16 from the floor and finished with 11 points. I’m choosing to take that shot volume as a positive moving forward.

Thompson averaged 14.1 PPG during the regular season and had a 73.9% hit rate on this milestone.

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions made at 12:10 p.m. ET 04/28/2025.

NBA playoff prop bets April 28: Bet on Davion Mitchell, fade Fred VanVleet

NBA prop bets

I’m fading one guard and backing another for Monday night’s NBA playoff doubleheader.

The pregame narrative: Davion Mitchell has been an unsung star of the first round for the soon-to-be-bounced Miami Heat. I’m sticking with what has been a very profitable prop market for him, while Fred VanVleet has solid value on an under.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 28.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Mitchell over 18.5 points/assists (-118)

I know this isn’t the flashiest play out there, but I keep coming back to it because it keeps cashing.

The ex-Toronto Raptor is 10-4 against this prop since March 23.

Mitchell has been the primary ball-handler for the Heat in their first-round series, but he’s also had to take matters into his own hands when teammates’ shots aren’t falling.

So far in the postseason, Mitchell is averaging 17.7 potential assists per game, which refers to passes that immediately lead to a shot. And that’s the third-highest among all playoff performers.

But Mitchell is only averaging 6.7 assists, meaning a 37.9% conversion rate on his potential assists. Other primary passers like Tyrese Haliburton, James Harden and Jalen Brunson are all over 60.0%.

I take this to mean that Mitchell could see some positive regression if the pass volume holds. But also, it might be further incentive for him to continue shooting.

Mitchell is 22-for-32 (68.8 FG%) from the floor in the playoffs. He has 16-plus points in each game.

It’s fair to think his shooting efficiency will regress, but the passing side of things should make up for that.

This might be the last game of the year to bet on Mitchell in this market, and I’m not going to miss out.

Key stat: In the first round, Mitchell is averaging 17.3 points and 6.7 assists (24.0 PA) against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Best NBA picks

VanVleet under 2.5 threes (+100): Betting against VanVleet failed me in Game 4, as he slogged his way to 17 points on 5-for-14 shooting.

I still think he’s generally worth fading, though, and at an even-money price, I think this is the right way to do it.

VanVleet is 6-for-29 (20.7%) from 3-point range in this series. Yes, that’s a lot of 3s, and therein lies the risk. But he’s just not hitting them at anything close to a respectable clip.

That’s been a theme for the veteran guard all year against the Golden State Warriors.

Under 2.5 threes is 5-2 when VanVleet faces the Warriors, and he’s shooting 21.3% from deep in those games. Playing the averages, I see enough value here to buy in.

NBA prop picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 04/28/2025.

NBA playoff prop bets April 28: Bet on Davion Mitchell, fade Fred VanVleet

NBA prop bets

I’m fading one guard and backing another for Monday night’s NBA playoff doubleheader.

The pregame narrative: Davion Mitchell has been an unsung star of the first round for the soon-to-be-bounced Miami Heat. I’m sticking with what has been a very profitable prop market for him, while Fred VanVleet has solid value on an under.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for first-round playoff action on April 28.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Mitchell over 18.5 points/assists (-118)

I know this isn’t the flashiest play out there, but I keep coming back to it because it keeps cashing.

The ex-Toronto Raptor is 10-4 against this prop since March 23.

Mitchell has been the primary ball-handler for the Heat in their first-round series, but he’s also had to take matters into his own hands when teammates’ shots aren’t falling.

So far in the postseason, Mitchell is averaging 17.7 potential assists per game, which refers to passes that immediately lead to a shot. And that’s the third-highest among all playoff performers.

But Mitchell is only averaging 6.7 assists, meaning a 37.9% conversion rate on his potential assists. Other primary passers like Tyrese Haliburton, James Harden and Jalen Brunson are all over 60.0%.

I take this to mean that Mitchell could see some positive regression if the pass volume holds. But also, it might be further incentive for him to continue shooting.

Mitchell is 22-for-32 (68.8 FG%) from the floor in the playoffs. He has 16-plus points in each game.

It’s fair to think his shooting efficiency will regress, but the passing side of things should make up for that.

This might be the last game of the year to bet on Mitchell in this market, and I’m not going to miss out.

Key stat: In the first round, Mitchell is averaging 17.3 points and 6.7 assists (24.0 PA) against the Cleveland Cavaliers.

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Best NBA picks

VanVleet under 2.5 threes (+100): Betting against VanVleet failed me in Game 4, as he slogged his way to 17 points on 5-for-14 shooting.

I still think he’s generally worth fading, though, and at an even-money price, I think this is the right way to do it.

VanVleet is 6-for-29 (20.7%) from 3-point range in this series. Yes, that’s a lot of 3s, and therein lies the risk. But he’s just not hitting them at anything close to a respectable clip.

That’s been a theme for the veteran guard all year against the Golden State Warriors.

Under 2.5 threes is 5-2 when VanVleet faces the Warriors, and he’s shooting 21.3% from deep in those games. Playing the averages, I see enough value here to buy in.

NBA prop picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 04/28/2025.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Game 4: Bet on LeBron James, Anthony Edwards to cash scoring props

Lakers vs. Timberwolves predictions

A critical Game 4 between the Los Angeles Lakers and Minnesota Timberwolves is set for Sunday afternoon, as L.A. looks to even the series before heading home.

The pregame narrative: Though I don’t expect a lot of scoring overall, both Anthony Edwards and LeBron James look like solid plays to cash a pair of scoring milestones in this +250 SGP.

Check out my Lakers vs. Timberwolves playoff SGP predictions for Game 4 on Sunday, April 27.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Under 217.5 points | Edwards 25+ points | LeBron 20+ points (+250)

Under 217.5 points (-250): Last time out, these teams combined for 220 points. But that hasn’t been the norm in their matchups this season.

  • Unders are 6-1 in this head-to-head matchup this season, and each of those unders went below 217.5 points.
  • The average total in Lakers/T-Wolves games this season is 201.4 points.

The Timberwolves and Lakers both wielded top-10 scoring defences this year, so the premium on points when these teams clash makes sense.

During the regular season, neither of their head-to-head matchups in Minnesota even cleared 200 points.

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NBA SGP legs

Edwards 25+ points (-180): Edwards is shooting a ton in this series, which is obviously a good thing if you want him to score a bunch of points.

The three-time all-star has attempted 70 shots through three games. That’s 24 more than anyone else on Minnesota (Jaden McDaniels is next at 46).

Through 30 career playoff games, Edwards is averaging 27.5 points on 20.6 shots.

He’s coming off a 29-point outing and has now hit on this bet in eight of 14 home playoff games.

LeBron 20+ points (-265): Though it was in a losing effort, LeBron put on a scoring clinic in Game 3 that reminded everyone what the ageless wonder is still capable of.

The King finished with 38 points on 13-of-21 shooting (5-of-9 from 3-point range). That comes after he scored 19 and 21 points, respectively, in Games 1 and 2.

A 20-point milestone is still very much in play on a nightly basis for LeBron at this stage of his career.

Since 2023, he has 20-plus points in 22 of 24 playoff games.

Lakers vs. Timberwolves predictions made at 3:20 p.m. ET 04/26/2025.

Rockets vs. Warriors SGP predictions Game 3: Curry should produce in low-scoring environment

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions

With the series knotted at one game apiece, the Golden State Warriors host the Houston Rockets on Saturday night at Chase Center.

The pregame narrative: Both games in this series were starved for offence, which is a trend I could see continuing tonight. I’m also backing Steph Curry and fading Brandin Podziemski on various scoring props.

Check out my Rockets vs. Warriors playoff SGP predictions for April 26.

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions

Parlay: Under 212.5 points | Curry 25+ points | Podziemski under 2.5 threes (+255)

Under 212.5 points (-235): Both games so far in this series were rock fights, and that really isn’t surprising.

  • Golden State and Houston both ranked inside the top eight in defensive rating and opponent PPG.
  • Unders are now 6-1 in their matchups this season.
  • The average point total in their seven head-to-head meetings is 201.3 points.

In six consecutive games between Houston and Golden State, one or both teams finished below 100 points.

I just can’t foresee a scoring explosion between two teams that have things locked down on the defensive end.

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NBA SGP legs

Curry 25+ points (-167): Jimmy Butler (pelvis) is questionable to play tonight. Whether or not he suits up, the bulk of Golden State’s scoring responsibility still falls on Curry.

That’s why I’m comfortable playing this milestone prop despite also backing an alt under.

Curry has 51 of the Warriors’ 189 points so far in this series. That is a significant piece of the pie.

Over his past 15 playoff games — dating back to 2023 — Curry is averaging 29.8 PPG. He’s hit the 25-point milestone in 12 of those 15 matchups.

Also, Curry has averaged 25.3 PPG against the Rockets since the start of the 2022-23 season.

Podziemski under 2.5 threes (-186): Podziemski snuck past this number in Game 1, going 3-for-8 from deep, but I don’t expect that to become a trend.

  • Including the regular season and playoffs, Podziemski has gone under 2.5 threes in 50 of 66 games.
  • The under is 5-2 for Podziemski against the Rockets this year.
  • Houston allowed the second-fewest 3-point makes (12.3/game) and attempts (34.5/game) to opponents during the regular season.

It’s a daunting matchup, and Podziemski reportedly dealt with a stomach bug on Wednesday and shot 0-for-5 from the floor before leaving early.

If he has any lingering effects from that issue, it’ll only strengthen this under in my eyes.

Rockets vs. Warriors predictions made at 1:50 p.m. ET 04/26/2025.

Nuggets vs. Clippers SGP predictions Game 4: Bet on L.A. to win, Harden and Jokic to cash from 3-point range

Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions

After a dominant win last time out, the Los Angeles Clippers look to push Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets to the brink of elimination.

The pregame narrative: I like Jokic to make noise from 3-point range tonight, but I’m still expecting the Clippers to come out on top. Also, James Harden looks like a solid pick to stay hot beyond the arc.

Check out my Nuggets vs. Clippers playoff SGP predictions for Game 4 on Saturday, April 26.

Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions

Parlay: Clippers -6 | Jokic 2+ threes | Harden 3+ threes (+440)

Clippers -6 (-114): Game 3 was a thorough beatdown in the Clippers’ favour. I think we could be in for a repeat in Game 4.

L.A. won every quarter en route to a 117-83 victory. I wouldn’t count on a margin that sizeable tonight, but a fairly comfortable win would make perfect sense.

  • In their first season at Intuit Dome, the Clippers are 31-11 straight up and 29-13 ATS.
  • L.A. is 3-0 ATS so far in this series — and 7-2 ATS in its past nine games overall.

Thursday’s home dominance was just an extension of what the Clips accomplished to close out the regular season.

From March 1 through the end of the year, they went 11-1 at home and posted an NBA-best +15.4 net rating.

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NBA SGP legs

Jokic 2+ threes (-159): Michael Porter Jr. (shoulder) is questionable to play tonight, which means other Denver shooters might have to pick up the slack from 3-point range.

Enter Jokic, who’s enjoyed a career year from beyond the arc. During the regular season, he averaged 2.0 triples on 41.7 3PT%.

The three-time MVP is 18-for-36 (50.0%) from beyond the arc against the Clippers this season, cashing this bet in five of six games.

Jokic only attempted three 3s last time out; fortunately, he sank two of them.

I’m hoping an uptick in shot volume tonight makes this less of a white-knuckled play.

Harden 3+ threes (-150): This prop is on the cusp of being played as a solo wager, if you’re okay with the extra juice.

It also lifts this SGP from +225 to +440, which I find quite compelling.

  • Harden posted a mediocre 35.2 3PT% this season, but his shot volume was high. He averaged 3.0 threes on 8.5 attempts.
  • In this series, Harden is 3-0 against this milestone prop, shooting 11-for-28 (39.3%) beyond the arc.

Denver allowed the 10th-most attempted 3s to opponents during the regular season. So hopefully Harden continues getting ample shots up.

Nuggets vs. Clippers predictions made at 12:10 p.m. ET 04/26/2025.