There’s plenty of afternoon action around MLB, but I’m targeting the three latest starts for my MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: In Toronto, Alex Bregman looks to stay hot and has a nice price to record an RBI. On the West Coast, I’m looking to tail Gleyber Torres and fade Matt Chapman on their respective bases props.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 1.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Bregman over 0.5 RBI (+125)
Bregman is wielding a white-hot bat right now, and from the No. 3 spot in Boston’s order, I think this is a great way to back him.
- The veteran third baseman has a 1.288 OPS in his past 13 games, totalling 12 RBI in that span.
- He has 1+ RBI in 4 of 6 matchups since April 24.
Bregman has homered in both games so far this series, so obviously he can cash this on his own.
But RBI props are about opportunities with runners on base, and Bregman has had plenty of those, too.
Bregman has 70 plate appearances with runners on base so far, which is tied for the seventh-most in MLB.
In those PAs, Bregman has a .350/.429/.583 slash line (184 wRC+). That’s the ninth-highest wRC+ among players with 50-plus PAs with runners on.
Jose Berrios hasn’t been great in three home starts this year, allowing 17 hits and 11 runs in 16.2 innings.
I expect Jarren Duran to create some RBI opportunities for Bregman tonight. Boston’s leadoff man is 9-for-18 with eight extra-base hits against Berrios.
Key stat: Bregman is 7-for-29 with two doubles and two home runs (.517 SLG) against Berrios.
Best MLB picks
Torres over 1.5 bases (+125): Torres isn’t going to light up the radar gun with his batted-ball exit velocity, but his contact quality has been superb in the early stages of 2025.
Torres is below average in average exit velocity, barrel rate and hard-hit rate. But check out his rankings in some other notable categories, per Baseball Savant:
- 96th-percentile squared-up rate
- 87th-percentile chase rate
- 87th-percentile xBA
Torres is on a prove-it contract, having signed a one-year deal with the Tigers just after Christmas. He’s off to a solid start and is worth backing whenever there’s a left-hander on the mound.
Tonight, Torres faces Angels southpaw Yusei Kikuchi. In their past matchups, Torres is 10-for-28 with two doubles and a homer.
Since 2023, Torres has a .274/.363/.505 slash line against LHPs. His 143 wRC+ against lefties in that span ranks 21st out of 127 qualified hitters.
Chapman under 1.5 bases (-143): I love this price on fading Chapman, who is 3-for-34 (.088) in his past 10 games.
Chapman will theoretically have a platoon advantage tonight against the left-handed Kyle Freeland, but that’s not a big part of his hitting profile.
Throughout his career, Chapman’s OPS against lefties (.818) is fewer than 40 points north of his OPS against righties (.779).
Also, it’s worth noting that Chapman is 1-for-8 lifetime against Freeland.
Chapman is a boom-or-bust hitter who hasn’t boomed in a while. He also leads the majors in walks (26 in 31 games), and any free passes issued tonight would be a plus for this pick.
MLB prop picks made at 2:10 p.m. ET on 05/01/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.