Jordan Horrobin

There are four MLB games starting in the 4 p.m. ET window on Sunday, and I’ve got prop bets from three of them.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Jorge Polanco continues to enjoy an inexplicably successful start, and he’ll face a pitcher today that he’s tormented in the past. Elsewhere, Tony Gonsolin will face his biggest test of the early season on the road against the Arizona Diamondbacks.

See how I’m targeting Polanco, Gonsolin and Tyler O’Neill in my best MLB prop bets for May 11.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Polanco over 1.5 bases (+130)

If you haven’t been following the Seattle Mariners, you’re missing a truly shocking early-season surge from Polanco.

The 12th-year veteran, who has just one all-star appearance on his resume, is batting .327 with a 1.026 OPS through 30 games.

And his batted ball metrics — via Baseball Savant — back up those superb numbers:

• 100th-percentile xBA (.350)
• 98th-percentile xSLG (.622)
• 88th-percentile barrel rate (15.4%)

Polanco has amassed 66 bases so far, which equates to 2.2 bases per game. He has cashed this bet in nine of his past 19 games (and in 12 of 30 overall).

The switch-hitting infielder is probably worth targeting regardless of which side of the plate he’s swinging from. But I’m particularly interested in backing him as a left-hitting player.

Against right-handed pitchers this year, Polanco is batting .337 with a 1.078 OPS. And he’s got an enticing matchup against Toronto RHP Jose Urena this afternoon.

Urena has allowed seven runs on 11 hits through 7.1 innings this year and has struggled to solve Polanco in the past.

Key stat: Polanco is 7-for-10 with a double against Urena.

Embed: #113648

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

More MLB picks

O’Neill under 0.5 hits (+143): The right-hitting O’Neill has a platoon advantage today, at least in theory, against Angels southpaw Tyler Anderson. But that hasn’t how things have played out so far this year.

• O’Neill has an .889 career OPS vs. lefties and slashed .313/.430/.750 against them last year.

• This year, though, he is just 2-for-22 (.091) vs. lefties with 11 strikeouts.

Anderson (2-0, 2.68 ERA) is off to a great start for L.A. this year, and right-hitting opponents haven’t seemed to figure him out. Righties are batting just .155 with a .497 OPS.

O’Neill, a Maple Ridge, BC native, is hitless in eight of his past 12 games. He’s batting just 4-for-40 in that span.

Given Anderson’s reverse splits and O’Neill’s recent slide, I’m a fan of fading the Baltimore outfielder at a decent price.

Gonsolin over 4.5 Ks (+110): Gonsolin missed all of last season recovering from Tommy John surgery, but he’s enjoyed a triumphant return in the early stages of 2025.

Through two outings, Gonsolin has 17 Ks in 11.0 innings. He generated a 42.7% whiff rate and a 37.7% chase rate in those starts, which would be in the upper tier of the league if extrapolated over a greater data set.

I don’t want to make too much out of a pair of starts, but I do see this as an enticing plus-money price for a pretty low strikeout total.

The Diamondbacks, who Gonsolin will face today, have the fourth-lowest K% in the majors (19.7). But their 21.4 K% in the past two weeks ranks 15th in MLB.

I don’t think this is as daunting of a matchup as it may seem on the surface. Especially since Gonsolin has 17 Ks against the current D-backs lineup already (28.3 K%).

MLB prop picks made at 11:32 a.m. ET on 05/11/2025.

Looking to avoid the wrong end of a sweep, the Toronto Blue Jays wrap up a three-game series on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Angels.

The pregame narrative: Toronto has dropped four in a row, thanks in part to some uncharacteristic lapses from the bullpen. Chris Bassitt, sporting a sub-3.00 ERA through seven starts, looks to help the team right the ship tonight.

I’m backing Bassitt and Vladimir Guerrero Jr. in a plus-money combo play as one of my Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on May 8.

Blue Jays picks vs. Angels

Best Bet: Taylor Ward under 0.5 hits (+138)

Ward opened the season in his typical leadoff spot for the Angels. But when his power numbers outperformed his on-base numbers, he was bumped to the cleanup spot.

Now nothing seems to be going right.

In 12 games since sliding back in the order, Ward has a .095/.156/.190 slash line.

His .177 xBA in that span, per Baseball Savant, isn’t a whole lot better. Neither is the 40.0% strikeout rate it comes with.

Ward has an interesting statistical profile, given that he strikes out a lot for such a choosy hitter. He ranks in the 16th percentile in K rate (28.2%) despite owning a 92nd-percentile chase rate (19.8%).

He’s been caught looking on a whopping 40.0% of his strikeouts this year. For context, the MLB average is 23.0%.

What that tells me is he’s often not even getting the bat off his shoulder … so why should I back him to get a hit?

Ward is 1-for-9 with three Ks and a walk against Bassitt. He’s hitless in nine of his past 12 games, and I expect another dud tonight.

Key stat: Ward’s .226 xBA ranks in the 20th percentile. He only has four hits in his past 47 plate appearances.

Embed: #113564

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Quick pick

Parlay: Bassitt 6+ Ks, Guerrero 1+ hits (+117): I thought about just backing Bassitt over 5.5 Ks as a standalone, but the -155 odds don’t make that a very exciting play.

So if you’re looking for something with a higher payout upside, consider tacking on a hit from Vlad Jr.

Let’s start with Bassitt’s side of things. He’s failed to cashed this bet in three straight starts, but his overall strikeout numbers are still strong.

• 6.1 Ks per start
• 25.7 K% (72nd percentile)

Having pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in six of seven starts, Bassitt should have enough rope to contend for this strikeout milestone. And he’s up against a team with the second-highest K rate in the majors (26.9%).

Now on to Vladdy, who enters Thursday on a nine-game hit streak.

Guerrero faces L.A.’s Jose Siriano, who throws sinkers to right-hitting players 54.0% of the time — and is allowing a .333 opponent BA on that offering.

Vladdy is 13-for-26 against sinkers this year, and his .309 xBA overall ranks in the 93rd percentile.

Blue Jays picks vs. Angels made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 05/08/2025.

Looking to get started? Sign up here.

There’s a handful of afternoon ballgames in MLB on Thursday, but my primary focus is on the nightcap between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks to continue his glistening start to 2025 against Brandon Pfaadt and the D-backs. Yamamoto won both of his starts against Arizona a season ago.

In addition to Yamamoto, my best MLB prop bets for May 8 also feature plays on Mookie Betts and Danny Jansen.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Jansen under 0.5 hits (+108)

Plenty of Blue Jays fans were surely sour when Jansen was traded at last year’s deadline, but the early returns from his post-Toronto days justify the move.

Between last year’s stint with the Red Sox and this year’s tenure with the Phillies, here’s what Jansen has put together offensively:

• 54 games
• .163 BA
• .572 OPS
• 74 wRC+
• 17.3 BB%

The basement-level batting average and the sky-high walk rate both matter for a hits prop.

On one hand, Jansen isn’t generating a lot of quality contact when he puts bat to ball … and on the other hand, he’s content to keep the bat on his shoulder and simply take a free base.

Tonight, Jansen faces Phillies left-hander Jesus Luzardo, who is 3-0 with a 1.94 ERA through seven starts.

Luzardo, who is Peruvian-born but raised in Florida, has held opponents to a .219 BA when pitching on the road this year.

You might think the right-hitting Jansen would have a leg up on Luzardo in a lefty-on-righty matchup. But that isn’t true.

Jansen is just 2-for-25 (.080) against LHPs this season and has a career .197 BA against southpaws overall.

Key stat: Jansen ranks in the third percentile in xBA (.197), per Baseball Savant. He’s also in the bottom-15th percentile in xSLG (.335) and average exit velocity (86.6 mph).

Embed: #113551

• Full MLB betting markets
• MLB injury report
• MLB stats & standings

Dodgers MLB picks

Betts over 0.5 runs (-107): How can you not like Betts to score at this price?

He bats in the No. 2 spot in the Dodgers’ order, with the hottest hitter in baseball — Freddie Freeman — right behind.

In his past 10 games, Freeman is batting .500 with seven extra-base hits and 17 RBI. I thought about just taking Freeman over 1.5 bases (-121), but Betts’ price to score is even better.

L.A. faces Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt tonight, and there’s a lot of positive history there on the Dodgers’ side of things.

• Betts has reached base in 6 of 13 plate appearances against Pfaadt (.462 OBP).

• Freeman and L.A. cleanup hitter Will Smith are a combined 7-for-21 with four doubles and a home run vs. Pfaadt.

Oh, and Betts has scored in seven consecutive starts.

Yamamoto over 17.5 outs (-125): Yamamoto is off to a remarkable start in Year 2 with the Dodgers. Through seven outings, he owns the lowest ERA in the majors (0.90).

Without Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell available to pitch right now, Yamamoto is the de facto ace of the squad. And the Dodgers aren’t treating the 26-year-old with kid gloves.

• He’s averaging 17.1 outs and is 4-3 against this line.

• Yamamoto has thrown 90+ pitches in six straight starts.

Last year, Yamamoto cashed this bet in both outings against the Diamondbacks, allowing two runs while striking out 13 batters over 12.1 innings.

He’s also catching the D-backs at a decent time. Over the past two weeks, the typically potent offence ranks 15th in runs and 18th in wRC+.

MLB prop picks made at 9:55 a.m. ET on 05/08/2025.