Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Knicks vs. Celtics SGP predictions Game 5: Fade Josh Hart but back New York to cover

In order to keep the dream of a championship repeat alive, the Boston Celtics need a win on Wednesday night — and another two after that — against the New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: The tenor of the series shifted in the final minutes of Game 4, when Jayson Tatum ruptured his Achilles tendon. Despite his indefinite absence moving forward, the Celtics are favoured at home tonight in a series they trail, 3-1.

Check out my Celtics vs. Knicks SGP predictions for Game 5 on May 14, featuring Derrick White and Josh Hart.

Celtics vs. Knicks predictions

Parlay: Knicks +6.5 | White 15+ points | Hart under 5.5 assists (+320)

Knicks +6.5 (-155): I think it might be Cancun time for the Celtics.

Tatum was spectacular in Game 4, dropping 42 points to go with eight rebounds, four assists, four steals and two blocks. It wasn’t enough, though, and now Boston must press forward without its star.

The Knicks are 5-0 on the road in the postseason, winning four of those games as underdogs. They’re also now 29-17 on the road overall this year.

As a straight wager, I’m looking hard at Knicks moneyline (+160). But this is a decent price to bank some points with the visitors.

New York has covered a +6.5 spread in 11 of 12 games dating back to the regular season.

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NBA SGP legs

White 15+ points (-265): Here’s another pick where I’m playing it relatively safe because it’s part of a parlay. I think White should breeze past this line.

Why? Tatum’s absence should provide an obvious boost to his shot opportunities, but White was doing just fine against this number already.

18.3 PPG in the postseason
15+ points in 8 of 9 games

White has attempted 44 threes through four games, which is one shy of Tatum for the team lead. Another high-volume game from 3-point range should be expected.

Also, White is 7-1 against this scoring milestone when facing the Knicks this year (including 4-0 in the playoffs).

Hart under 5.5 assists (-159): There’s some negative correlation between this pick and the Knicks’ alt spread, though it’s clear that neither leg relies on the other.

Hart has gone under 5.5 assists in all four games of this series, compiling just 14 total assists (3.5/game).

The Celtics have allowed the fewest assists per game this postseason (19.1) … after allowing the third-fewest per game in the regular season.

So it’s not as if this is an easy matchup, and Hart hasn’t been active enough as a passer against Boston for me to expect things to change now.

In this series, Hart is averaging 7.5 potential assists per game, which denotes the number of passes that lead directly to a shot.

Hart has gone under 5.5 assists in 6 of 8 games vs. Boston this season.

Knicks vs. Celtics predictions made at 9:30 a.m. ET 05/14/2025.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions Game 5: Bet on Randle, Kuminga to stay hot

The Minnesota Timberwolves can put away the Golden State Warriors on Wednesday night in Game 5 of their second-round series.

The pregame narrative: Steph Curry reportedly won’t be back until Game 6 at the earliest, but the series isn’t expected to last that long. Minnesota is a heavy home favourite to wrap this thing up and advance to the Western Conference finals.

Check out my Warriors vs. Timberwolves SGP predictions for May 14, featuring Jonathan Kuminga and Julius Randle.

Warriors vs. Timberwolves predictions

Parlay: Over 198.5 points | Kuminga over 22.5 points/rebounds | Randle 20+ points (+300)

Over 198.5 points (-177): With Curry set to miss another game, my initial instinct was to toss an alt under into this parlay.

But the Warriors and Timberwolves have cleared a 198.5-point total in all three Curry-less games of this series, so I actually prefer this route.

Overs are 27-18 (60.0%) in Minnesota home games this year, per Team Rankings.

Since March of last season, this over is 4-1 when the Warriors and T-Wolves meet in Minnesota.

The average total in this series’ three games without Curry is 212 points.

Overs are 3-1 in Minnesota’s four home games so far this postseason.

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NBA SGP legs

Kuminga over 22.5 points/rebounds (-114): I backed Kuminga over 23.5 points/rebounds for Game 4, when he finished with 23 points … and zero rebounds.

That was a super tough beat, but the market has dipped a bit, and I’m buying back in.

I can’t see Kuminga putting up another goose egg as a rebounder. He’s 6-foot-8, with as much athleticism as anyone on the Warriors’ roster.

Kuminga averaged 4.6 rebounds during the regular season and had 11 total boards across Games 2 and 3.

Even if it’s another quiet night on the glass, though, Kuminga’s scoring touch can carry him most (if not all) of the way.

In three playoff games without Curry, Kuminga is averaging 23.7 points on 59.5% shooting.

Randle 20+ points (-182): Randle has a $31 million player option for next season, but based on his playoff results, I think he’s earned himself a lot more money by opting for free agency.

There’s more basketball to be played first, though, and Randle is a key reason why the Timberwolves are one win shy of the conference finals.

23.3 PPG
15+ points in 9 of 9 games
20+ points in 7 of 9 games

It’s not like Randle’s shooting numbers are off the charts, either.

He had a 48.5 FG% and 34.4 3PT% during the regular season. In the playoffs, Randle has posted a 48.3 FG% and a 34.7 3PT%.

Randle has played 40-plus minutes and attempted 20-plus shots in back-to-back games. That type of volume will certainly play.

Timberwolves vs. Warriors predictions made at 2:10 p.m. ET 05/13/2025.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions Game 5: Bet overs on Darius Garland, Andrew Nembhard

The Cleveland Cavaliers need a win on Tuesday night to stay alive in the second round against the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Indiana won Games 1 and 2 on the road before earning a 20-point win on Sunday to push Cleveland to the brink. Now the Cavs are back on home court, where they own a 36-9 record, but their top star is questionable to play.

Check out my Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions for May 13, featuring Darius Garland and Andrew Nembhard.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions

Parlay: Over 224.5 points | Garland over 18.5 points | Nembhard over 11.5 points (+333)

Over 224.5 points (-188): These teams have matched up eight times since January, and they’ve largely made a habit of playing some high-scoring hoops.

Overs are 5-3 in Cleveland/Indiana meetings this season — including 3-1 in the postseason.

The lone under in this series was a 230-point total (with the line set at 232 points). And the teams shot a combined 29.9% from 3-point range that night.

All of that is to say, all four playoff matchups have featured 230-plus points.

Both the Pacers and Cavaliers played at top-10 paces during the regular season, and Indiana has had the third-fastest pace in the playoffs.

I expect another solid point total tonight.

NBA SGP legs

Garland over 18.5 points (-120): Donovan Mitchell re-aggravated a nagging ankle injury in Game 4 that caused him to miss the second half. Mitchell vowed to reporters that he’ll be out there tonight, but there’s no guarantee of how effective he’ll be.

That makes Garland’s presence even more critical.

Having averaged 20.6 points during the regular season, Garland was already looked upon as a centrepiece of the Cavaliers’ offence.

This milestone scoring prop is definitely in range, especially with Mitchell’s status in question.

Garland has 20+ points in 43 of 79 games (54.4%) this season, playoffs included.

He had 21 points on 6-of-11 shooting (8-for-8 from the free-throw line) in just 27 minutes in Game 4 vs. Indiana.

Nembhard over 11.5 points (-120): Nembhard was excellent during Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland, cashing this prop both times.

Game 1: 23 points (37 minutes)

Game 2: 13 points (36 minutes)

The minute totals are as interesting to me as the point totals because they demonstrate that Nembhard tends to be on the court in meaningful moments.

He only had 17 total points in Games 3 and 4, but he also played 30 or fewer minutes in both matchups because they were blowouts.

With the hope that tonight’s game is a close one again, Nembhard will hopefully have the opportunity to stay involved as a scorer.

The Aurora, Ontario native is shooting 50.0% from 3-point range and 86.7% from the free-throw line this postseason. He’s averaging 14.2 PA and is 6-3 against this line.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions made at 1:00 p.m. ET 05/13/2025.

Rays vs. Blue Jays best bet May 13: Fade Daulton Varsho at home

The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays open up their season series on Tuesday night at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Toronto lost three, then won three, then lost four. Now the Jays have won four in a row, and a win tonight would mark their longest win streak of the season. Last year, Toronto went 4-9 against Tampa Bay.

I’m backing fading Daulton Varsho in my Blue Jays best bet vs. the Rays on May 13.

Blue Jays best bet vs. Rays

Best Bet: Varsho under 0.5 hits (+105)

Varsho’s 2025 sample size is still quite small after he started the year on the injured list. But the early returns have been mixed at best.

The stocky outfielder is 6-for-31 (.194), going hitless in five of eight starts.

Varsho hasn’t had enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter. But if he did, his .197 xBA would rank near the bottom of MLB, while his 22.2% barrel rate would rank near the top.

It’s an odd dichotomy, to say the least. But keep in mind that Varsho also isn’t putting the ball in play much. Half of his 36 PAs have resulted in a strikeout (15) or walk (three).

Facing Tampa Bay right-hander Shane Baz, the left-hitting Varsho should have a platoon advantage.

But Baz is holding LHHs to a .194 average this year, and Varsho is just a .215 hitter in his career against RHPs.

Key stat: Varsho is hitless in four of his past five games, going 3-for-21 in that span.

Rays vs. Blue Jays best bet made at 12:21 p.m. ET on 05/13/2025.

Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 13: Ride with Aranda, fade Varsho

The Toronto Blue Jays and Tampa Bay Rays open up their season series on Tuesday night at Rogers Centre.

The pregame narrative: Toronto lost three, then won three, then lost four. Now the Jays have won four in a row, and a win tonight would mark their longest win streak of the season. Last year, Toronto went 4-9 against Tampa Bay.

I’m backing Jonathan Aranda and fading Daulton Varsho in my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on May 13.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best Bet: Aranda over 1.5 bases (+128)

Hand up, I did not know who Aranda was when the season began.

As a former Baseball America top-100 prospect (pre-2023), though, he’s not a complete unknown in the baseball world. And he’s putting everybody on notice right now.

The 26-year-old infielder has a .342/.429/.553 slash line, good for the fifth-best OPS in the majors (.982).

Baseball Savant loves Aranda’s batted ball profile, too. He ranks in the 94th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Aranda is a severe splits guy, and he’ll have the platoon advantage tonight against Toronto right-hander Jose Berrios.

So far in his young career, Aranda’s OPS against righties (.814) is more than 300 points north of his OPS against lefties (.511).

Berrios shrugged off a rough season debut and has a 3.02 ERA since. But he hasn’t been dominant.

Opposing hitters are tagging plenty of Berrios’ offerings, evidenced by his 12.2% barrel rate (12th percentile in MLB) and 90.2 mph average exit velocity (34th percentile).

Aranda is 4-for-8 with two home runs against Berrios.

Key stat: In 30 starts, Aranda has gone over 1.5 bases 15 times this season.

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Quick pick

Varsho under 0.5 hits (+110): Varsho’s 2025 sample size is still quite small after he started the year on the injured list. But the early returns have been mixed at best.

The stocky outfielder is 6-for-31 (.194), going hitless in five of eight starts.

Varsho hasn’t had enough plate appearances to be a qualified hitter. But if he did, his .197 xBA would rank near the bottom of MLB, while his 22.2% barrel rate would rank near the top.

It’s an odd dichotomy, to say the least. But keep in mind that Varsho also isn’t putting the ball in play much. Half of his 36 PAs have resulted in a strikeout (15) or walk (three).

Facing Tampa Bay right-hander Shane Baz, the left-hitting Varsho should have a platoon advantage.

But Baz is holding LHHs to a .194 average this year, and Varsho is just a .215 hitter in his career against RHPs.

Rays vs. Blue Jays picks made at 10:41 a.m. ET on 05/13/2025.

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Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions Game 5: Bet overs on Darius Garland, Andrew Nembhard

The Cleveland Cavaliers need a win on Tuesday night to stay alive in the second round against the Indiana Pacers.

The pregame narrative: Indiana won Games 1 and 2 on the road before earning a 20-point win on Sunday to push Cleveland to the brink. Now the Cavs are back on home court, where they own a 36-9 record, but their top star is questionable to play.

Check out my Pacers vs. Cavaliers SGP predictions for May 13, featuring Darius Garland and Andrew Nembhard.

Pacers vs. Cavaliers predictions

Parlay: Over 224.5 points | Garland 20+ points | Nembhard over 17.5 points/assists (+370)

Over 224.5 points (-182): These teams have matched up eight times since January, and they’ve largely made a habit of playing some high-scoring hoops.

Overs are 5-3 in Cleveland/Indiana meetings this season — including 3-1 in the postseason.

The lone under in this series was a 230-point total (with the line set at 232 points). And the teams shot a combined 29.9% from 3-point range that night.

All of that is to say, all four playoff matchups have featured 230-plus points.

Both the Pacers and Cavaliers played at top-10 paces during the regular season, and Indiana has had the third-fastest pace in the playoffs.

I expect another solid point total tonight.

NBA SGP legs

Garland 20+ points (-103): Donovan Mitchell re-aggravated a nagging ankle injury in Game 4 that caused him to miss the second half. Mitchell vowed to reporters that he’ll be out there tonight, but there’s no guarantee of how effective he’ll be.

That makes Garland’s presence even more critical.

Having averaged 20.6 points during the regular season, Garland was already looked upon as a centrepiece of the Cavaliers’ offence.

This milestone scoring prop is definitely in range, especially with Mitchell’s status in question.

Garland has 20+ points in 43 of 79 games (54.4%) this season, playoffs included.

He had 21 points on 6-of-11 shooting (8-for-8 from the free-throw line) in just 27 minutes in Game 4 vs. Indiana.

Nembhard over 17.5 points/assists (-117): Nembhard was excellent during Games 1 and 2 in Cleveland, cashing this prop easily both times.

Game 1: 23 points, 6 assists (37 minutes)

Game 2: 13 points, 13 assists (36 minutes)

The minute totals are as interesting to me as the points/assists totals, because they demonstrate that Nembhard will be on the court in meaningful moments.

He only had 14 PA apiece in Games 3 and 4, but he also played 30 or fewer minutes in both matchups because they were blowouts.

With the hope that tonight’s game is a close one again, Nembhard will hopefully have the opportunity to stay involved as a scorer and passer.

The Aurora, Ontario native is shooting 50.0% from 3-point range and 86.7% from the free-throw line this postseason. He’s averaging 20.2 PA and is 6-3 against this line.

Cavaliers vs. Pacers predictions made at 9:00 a.m. ET 05/13/2025.

NBA playoff prop bets May 12: Without Curry, bet on Hield and Kuminga to shine

Steph Curry’s injury absence for the Golden State Warriors has me targeting a pair of his teammates on Monday’s prop market.

The pregame narrative: Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga have both stepped up and stuffed the stat sheet in Curry’s absence. Can they do it again and try to help the Warriors even their second-round series?

Check out my NBA prop bets for Monday, May 12, which also include a prediction on Derrick White.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: White over 16.5 points (-118)

After blowing a 20-point lead in back-to-back games, everything finally came together — and didn’t fall apart — for the Boston Celtics in Game 3.

But amid all the turbulence of this second-round series, White has been a rock. He’s the guy I trust most for Boston right now, and this points prop should remain well within his reach.

White is 6-2 against this line in the postseason, averaging 17.8 PPG.

Aside from the Celtics’ 31-point win to close out their first-round series, White has seen an impressively steady diet of scoring opportunities. Excluding that blowout win, the guard has attempted 6+ threes and 10+ shots in all seven games.

If we exclude the closeout win against Orlando, White’s 2025 postseason averages look like this:

38.7 minutes
19.8 PPG
14.6 FGA
9.9 3PA

It’s obviously convenient for me to wipe his worst game from the record, but keep in mind that the Knicks are expected to play much tighter games against the Celtics than the Magic could.

And close games mean more opportunities for White.

After averaging a career-high 16.4 PPG during the regular season, White has carried his productivity forward into the most important time of year.

The Knicks have seen plenty of strong performances from White already, and I’ll bet they get another one in Game 4.

Key stat: In seven games against the Knicks this season, White is 6-1 against this line while averaging 18.6 PPG.

Best NBA picks

Hield over 13.5 points (-130): Hield has spent most of his nine-year NBA career out of the spotlight, as a 3-point specialist more than anything else.

He has never been an all-star, but with Curry (hamstring) currently sidelined for the Warriors, Hield will have to play at an all-star-calibre clip to keep Golden State in contention.

Hield has cleared this line in four straight games, thanks in large part to 22-of-36 (61.1%) shooting from 3-point range.

In 14 games without Curry this season, Hield is 9-5 against this line and averaging 13.9 PPG.

Coming off four straight games with 11-plus shots and eight-plus attempted 3s, I’m buying in on Hield’s volume with the shorthanded Warriors.

Kuminga over 22.5 points/rebounds (-118): Welcome back to the lineup, Kuminga.

Trade rumours swirled earlier this postseason for Kuminga, who sat out four of Golden State’s first eight games despite being healthy.

With Curry injured, the Warriors had no choice but to see what Kuminga could offer with some extended run.

In Games 2 and 3, he totalled 48 points on 65.5% shooting and added 11 rebounds. Just as importantly, Kuminga played 25-plus minutes in both games.

Without Curry this season, the 6-foot-8 forward averaged 20.3 PPG and 4.4 rebounds in 12 matchups.

Kuminga provides more bounce as a rebounder than Draymond Green, and he’s a confident enough scorer to create his own shot consistently.

To me, the upside is high for a player who has new life in what might be his last chance to convince Golden State brass to keep him.

NBA prop picks made at 4:36 p.m. ET on 05/11/2025.

NBA playoff prop bets May 12: Without Curry, bet on Hield and Kuminga to shine

Steph Curry’s injury absence for the Golden State Warriors has me targeting a pair of his teammates on Monday’s prop market.

The pregame narrative: Buddy Hield and Jonathan Kuminga have both stepped up and stuffed the stat sheet in Curry’s absence. Can they do it again and try to help the Warriors even their second-round series?

Check out my NBA prop bets for Monday, May 12, which also include a prediction on Derrick White.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: White over 16.5 points (-106)

After blowing a 20-point lead in back-to-back games, everything finally came together — and didn’t fall apart — for the Boston Celtics in Game 3.

But amid all the turbulence of this second-round series, White has been a rock. He’s the guy I trust most for Boston right now, and this points prop should remain well within his reach.

White is 6-2 against this line in the postseason, averaging 17.8 PPG.

Aside from the Celtics’ 31-point win to close out their first-round series, White has seen an impressively steady diet of scoring opportunities. Excluding that blowout win, the guard has attempted 6+ threes and 10+ shots in all seven games.

If we exclude the closeout win against Orlando, White’s 2025 postseason averages look like this:

38.7 minutes
19.8 PPG
14.6 FGA
9.9 3PA

It’s obviously convenient for me to wipe his worst game from the record, but keep in mind that the Knicks are expected to play much tighter games against the Celtics than the Magic could.

And close games mean more opportunities for White.

After averaging a career-high 16.4 PPG during the regular season, White has carried his productivity forward into the most important time of year.

The Knicks have seen plenty of strong performances from White already, and I’ll bet they get another one in Game 4.

Key stat: In seven games against the Knicks this season, White is 6-1 against this line while averaging 18.6 PPG.

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Best NBA picks

Hield over 13.5 points (-121): Hield has spent most of his nine-year NBA career out of the spotlight, as a 3-point specialist more than anything else.

He has never been an all-star, but with Curry (hamstring) currently sidelined for the Warriors, Hield will have to play at an all-star-calibre clip to keep Golden State in contention.

Hield has cleared this line in four straight games, thanks in large part to 22-of-36 (61.1%) shooting from 3-point range.

In 14 games without Curry this season, Hield is 9-5 against this line and averaging 13.9 PPG.

Coming off four straight games with 11-plus shots and eight-plus attempted 3s, I’m buying in on Hield’s volume with the shorthanded Warriors.

Kuminga over 23.5 points/rebounds (-110): Welcome back to the lineup, Kuminga.

Trade rumours swirled earlier this postseason for Kuminga, who sat out four of Golden State’s first eight games despite being healthy.

With Curry injured, the Warriors had no choice but to see what Kuminga could offer with some extended run.

In Games 2 and 3, he totalled 48 points on 65.5% shooting and added 11 rebounds. Just as importantly, Kuminga played 25-plus minutes in both games.

Without Curry this season, the 6-foot-8 forward averaged 20.3 PPG and 4.4 rebounds in 12 matchups.

Kuminga provides more bounce as a rebounder than Draymond Green, and he’s a confident enough scorer to create his own shot consistently.

To me, the upside is high for a player who has new life in what might be his last chance to convince Golden State brass to keep him.

NBA prop picks made at 3:55 p.m. ET on 05/11/2025.

Phillies vs. Guardians Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Kyle Schwarber looks to keep mashing from cleanup spot

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians wrap up their season series in prime time on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: If these teams meet again, it’ll have to be in the World Series. The pair of 2024 division winners split the first two games of this series, and they enter Sunday with identical 23-16 records.

Check out my Phillies vs. Guardians prop bets for Sunday Night Baseball on May 11, featuring Kyle Schwarber and Bo Naylor.

Phillies vs. Guardians prop bets

Best Bet: Schwarber over 1.5 bases (+120)

Schwarber has been a leadoff hitter for most of his Phillies tenure, but he’s built like a heart-of-the-order slugger.

And since sliding into Philadelphia’s cleanup spot, Schwarber is really looking the part.

1.030 OPS as the No. 4 hitter
2+ bases in 11 of 25 games

The left-hitting Schwarber does particularly well against right-handed pitching, which is part of the calculus for this prop bet, too.

Throughout his career, his OPS against righties (.870) far exceeds his OPS against lefties (.758).

Schwarber will face Cleveland’s Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA), who has been giving up a ton of hard contact so far.

Ortiz ranks in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity (92.5 mph), per Baseball Savant, and the 8th percentile in barrel rate (13.2%).

On the offensive side, Schwarber ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velo (93.8 mph) and the 78th percentile in barrel rate (13.3%).

Key Stat: Schwarber has gone over 1.5 bases in eight of his past 13 games, posting a .633 SLG in that span.

Best MLB picks

Naylor under 0.5 hits (-130): I tend not to dabble with this market when the under has odds this short, but I think Naylor is worth a fade with Zack Wheeler on the mound.

Wheeler has struck out Naylor in both previous plate appearances against him and is in quite a groove right now.

Over his past four starts (26.2 innings), Wheeler has a 12.8 K/9 and a .194 opponent batting average. If someone is going to break through against him, I just don’t expect it to be Naylor.

The Mississauga, Ontario native is batting .202 and has gone hitless in 12 of 26 starts.

Naylor’s poor results are backed by a .205 xBA. That ranks in the fifth percentile in MLB.

Phillies vs. Guardians prop picks made at 2:30 p.m. ET on 05/11/2025.

Phillies vs. Guardians Sunday Night Baseball prop bets: Kyle Schwarber looks to keep mashing from cleanup spot

The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians wrap up their season series in prime time on Sunday Night Baseball.

The pregame narrative: If these teams meet again, it’ll have to be in the World Series. The pair of 2024 division winners split the first two games of this series, and they enter Sunday with identical 23-16 records.

Check out my Phillies vs. Guardians prop bets for Sunday Night Baseball on May 11, featuring Kyle Schwarber and Bo Naylor.

Phillies vs. Guardians prop bets

Best Bet: Schwarber over 1.5 bases (+120)

Schwarber has been a leadoff hitter for most of his Phillies tenure, but he’s built like a heart-of-the-order slugger.

And since sliding into Philadelphia’s cleanup spot, Schwarber is really looking the part.

1.030 OPS as the No. 4 hitter
2+ bases in 11 of 25 games

The left-hitting Schwarber does particularly well against right-handed pitching, which is part of the calculus for this prop bet, too.

Throughout his career, his OPS against righties (.870) far exceeds his OPS against lefties (.758).

Schwarber will face Cleveland’s Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA), who has been giving up a ton of hard contact so far.

Ortiz ranks in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity (92.5 mph), per Baseball Savant, and the 8th percentile in barrel rate (13.2%).

On the offensive side, Schwarber ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velo (93.8 mph) and the 78th percentile in barrel rate (13.3%).

Key Stat: Schwarber has gone over 1.5 bases in eight of his past 13 games, posting a .633 SLG in that span.

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Best MLB picks

Naylor under 0.5 hits (-122): I tend not to dabble with this market when the under has odds this short, but I think Naylor is worth a fade with Zack Wheeler on the mound.

Wheeler has struck out Naylor in both previous plate appearances against him and is in quite a groove right now.

Over his past four starts (26.2 innings), Wheeler has a 12.8 K/9 and a .194 opponent batting average. If someone is going to break through against him, I just don’t expect it to be Naylor.

The Mississauga, Ontario native is batting .202 and has gone hitless in 12 of 26 starts.

Naylor’s poor results are backed by a .205 xBA. That ranks in the fifth percentile in MLB.

Phillies vs. Guardians prop picks made at 1:32 p.m. ET on 05/11/2025.

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