Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks Game 6: Back Jalen Brunson, Derrick White at MSG

Back home for Game 6, the New York Knicks look to close out their second-round series against the Boston Celtics.

The pregame narrative: Jalen Brunson has been a bit up-and-down as a scorer in this series, but his assist totals have remained rather steady. His Knicks are 2.5-point favourites to knock out the defending champions.

Check out my Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks featuring Brunson and Derrick White in Game 6 on May 16.

Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks

Best Bet: White over 20.5 points (-109)

Needing a win at home to keep their season alive, the Celtics turned their offence over to White and let him cook.

The result? A 34-point explosion that featured 7-of-13 shooting from 3-point range.

The Celtics are committed to shooting a ton of 3s, and White is their top option out there. He’s attempted 57 threes through five games in this series and seems like a lock for double-digit shot attempts from outside again — especially with Jayson Tatum sidelined.

White wasn’t just a menace on the perimeter in Game 5, though. He also went 9-for-11 from the free-throw line.

The combo guard has now faced the Knicks nine times this season. He’s averaging 20.8 PPG while scoring 17-plus points in eight of nine.

Tatum’s absence makes a significant difference, as it directly opens the door for White to get more shots up. We saw that in Game 5, and I’m counting on the same story playing out Friday.

Key stat: Since March, White has averaged 23.3 PPG in seven games without Tatum. He’s shooting 42.0% from 3-point range on 11.6 attempts per game in those matchups.

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Game 6 prop prediction

Brunson over 6.5 assists (-130): Boston has allowed the fewest assists per game during the playoffs after allowing the third-fewest during the regular season. So why do I like this over for Brunson?

Well, clearing a 6.5-assist total just doesn’t seem like a huge ask for a guy who’s clearly his team’s No. 1 facilitator.

Brunson leads the Knicks in assists (7.8/game) and potential assists (12.9/game) during the postseason.

He has 5+ assists in all 11 playoff games … and 7+ assists in 9 of 11

Friday marks Brunson’s fourth game at Madison Square Garden against the Celtics since April. In the previous three, he collected 29 assists and went 3-0 against this prop.

Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks made at 1:08 p.m. ET 05/15/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 15: Fade Hunter Brown, bet on Freddie Freeman to continue mashing

There are only two night games on Thursday, but I’ve got three MLB prop bets to cover the action.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Hunter Brown and Jacob deGrom meet up in the Lone Star State for what should be a pitcher’s duel, but Brown has had so-so results against Texas in the past. Later on, Freddie Freeman looks to continue mashing against a pitcher with mediocre-at-best stuff.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 15, featuring Wyatt Langford.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Langford over 0.5 runs (+112)

There were some bumps in the road during Langford’s rookie season, but he still turned in a 111 OPS+ season thanks to a stellar final month.

The 2023 fourth-overall draftee has built on that nicely, posting a .262/.349/.500 slash line (142 OPS+) so far in Year 2.

From the No. 2 spot in the Rangers’ lineup, Langford has the power, patience and speed to be a constant threat to score (rankings via Baseball Savant):

81st-percentile xSLG
76th-percentile walk rate
90th-percentile sprint speed

Astros starter Hunter Brown (6-1, 1.48 ERA) is on a tear, and that doesn’t help our cause. But if anyone on the Rangers is going to break through, I’m expecting it to be Langford.

Especially since there are a couple of hitters behind Langford who’ve succeeded against Brown in the past.

Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien, who bat fourth and fifth for the Rangers, are 17-for-34 (.500) with two home runs and a double vs. Brown.

Key stat: Langford has scored six runs in his past five games and cashed this bet in six of his past 10.

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Best MLB picks

Brown under 6.5 Ks (-132): It’s really tough to fade Brown based on the run he’s enjoying right now. But I think the buck stops here.

Brown has tallied nine strikeouts in four consecutive outings and is averaging 7.3 Ks per start so far.

But now he’s facing a Rangers squad that has been impressively stingy in the strikeout department — especially against Brown.

Texas’ active lineup only has 15 Ks in 99 plate appearances vs. Brown (15.2 K%).

Over the past two weeks, the Rangers have the third-lowest K rate in MLB (19.1%).

Brown went under 6.5 Ks in all three starts against Texas last season. He’s 13-8 to this under in 21 road starts since the beginning of 2024.

Freeman over 1.5 bases (+102): One of the many things to love about Freeman’s start to the season is that he’s mashing everything. No pitch group is spared.

Fastballs: .409 BA, .727 SLG
Breaking: .278 BA, .694 SLG
Off-speed: .400 BA, .700 SLG

How do you attack this guy? I haven’t figured that out, nor have most MLB pitchers.

Athletics righty Osvaldo Bido will try his hand tonight. He’s had a rough go in his past four outings, allowing a collective .286/.344/.631 slash line to opposing hitters.

Bido throws all three fastball types to lefties a combined 60.7% of the time. LHHs are batting .302 with a .558 SLG against those offerings.

Freeman has proven he can hit anything, but fastballs seem to be the preferred choice. He’s gone over 1.5 bases in 17 of 32 games so far this year.

MLB prop picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 05/15/2025

Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 15: Bet on Guerrero, Varsho and Gausman in series finale

Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday for an afternoon rubber match.

The pregame narrative: After a ninth-inning meltdown on Tuesday night, Toronto responded last night with a low-scoring win. Gausman is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three outings so far at Rogers Centre this year.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on May 15, featuring Gausman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best Bet: Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-138)

Two seasons ago, Gausman led the American League with 237 strikeouts. That marked his fifth consecutive season with a 10.0 K/9 or better.

Are we ever going to see that guy again? I’m not sure. But he still has the stuff to go over 5.5 Ks when the matchup is right.

That’s what I’m seeing here, as Gausman faces a strikeout-happy Rays squad.

There are 19 MLB players with a K rate of 30.0% or higher (minimum 100 plate appearances). Three of them — Christopher Morel, Jose Caballero, Kameron Misner — are on the Rays.

Tampa Bay has the 8th-highest K% vs. right-handed pitchers this season (23.3).

Gausman only has 40 Ks through 45.1 innings, which equates to a 7.9 K/9. That’d be his lowest since 2018.

But he cashed this bet in both starts against the Rays last year, during a season in which he had an 8.0 K/9. Opponents matter a lot when it comes to strikeout props.

Gausman is 4-2 against this prop in his past six starts, averaging exactly 6.0 Ks in those outings.

I think the price of this prop is fair, especially given the matchup.

Key stat: In the past two weeks, Tampa Bay has the fifth-highest K rate in MLB (24.3%).

Quick pick

Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-106): Jays fans are still waiting for a sustained power surge from Guerrero. But in the meantime, he’s finding ways on base and scoring at an impressive rate.

Guerrero has 1+ runs in 7 of his past 8 games.

Dating back to April 23, Guerrero has a .309/.400/.471 slash line, scoring 15 runs in 18 games.

The first baseman only has two extra-base hits in his past 11 games. That’s not exactly what you’d want to spend $500 million on.

But Guerrero has reached base 22 times in those 11 games. So he’s giving himself plenty of opportunities to come around.

Guerrero is 3-for-5 with two walks against Rays starter Zack Littell.

Varsho over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (-106): I bet on Varsho to go hitless two nights ago. Instead, he homered twice.

Varsho can be a bit boom-or-bust, but today’s matchup is one worth buying in on.

So far this season, Varsho has five home runs and a .781 SLG versus RHPs (32 at-bats).

Against Littell, Varsho is 4-for-9 (.444) with a homer and a double.

The sample is still quite small, but Varsho has already made a habit of tattooing the baseball. He’s among the league’s elite class in xSLG (.592), average exit velocity (95.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (57.1%).

Rays vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 05/15/2025.

Rays vs. Blue Jays prop picks May 15: Bet on Guerrero, Varsho and Gausman in series finale

Kevin Gausman and the Toronto Blue Jays host the Tampa Bay Rays on Thursday for an afternoon rubber match.

The pregame narrative: After a ninth-inning meltdown on Tuesday night, Toronto responded last night with a low-scoring win. Gausman is 2-0 with a 2.00 ERA in three outings so far at Rogers Centre this year.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. the Rays on May 15, featuring Gausman, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Daulton Varsho.

Blue Jays picks vs. Rays

Best Bet: Gausman over 5.5 Ks (-114)

Two seasons ago, Gausman led the American League with 237 strikeouts. That marked his fifth consecutive season with a 10.0 K/9 or better.

Are we ever going to see that guy again? I’m not sure. But he still has the stuff to go over 5.5 Ks when the matchup is right.

That’s what I’m seeing here, as Gausman faces a strikeout-happy Rays squad.

There are 19 MLB players with a K rate of 30.0% or higher (minimum 100 plate appearances). Three of them — Christopher Morel, Jose Caballero, Kameron Misner — are on the Rays.

Tampa Bay has the 8th-highest K% vs. right-handed pitchers this season (23.3).

Gausman only has 40 Ks through 45.1 innings, which equates to a 7.9 K/9. That’d be his lowest since 2018.

But he cashed this bet in both starts against the Rays last year, during a season in which he had an 8.0 K/9. Opponents matter a lot when it comes to strikeout props.

Gausman is 4-2 against this prop in his past six starts, averaging exactly 6.0 Ks in those outings.

I think the price of this prop is fair, especially given the matchup.

Key stat: In the past two weeks, Tampa Bay has the fifth-highest K rate in MLB (24.3%).

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Quick pick

Guerrero over 0.5 runs (-115): Jays fans are still waiting for a sustained power surge from Guerrero. But in the meantime, he’s finding ways on base and scoring at an impressive rate.

Guerrero has 1+ runs in 7 of his past 8 games.

Dating back to April 23, Guerrero has a .309/.400/.471 slash line, scoring 15 runs in 18 games.

The first baseman only has two extra-base hits in his past 11 games. That’s not exactly what you’d want to spend $500 million on.

But Guerrero has reached base 22 times in those 11 games. So he’s giving himself plenty of opportunities to come around.

Guerrero is 3-for-5 with two walks against Rays starter Zack Littell.

Varsho over 1.5 bases (+125): I bet on Varsho to go hitless two nights ago. Instead, he homered twice.

Varsho can be a bit boom-or-bust, but today’s matchup is one worth buying in on.

So far this season, Varsho has five home runs and a .781 SLG versus RHPs (32 at-bats).

Against Littell, Varsho is 4-for-9 (.444) with a homer and a double.

The sample is still quite small, but Varsho has already made a habit of tattooing the baseball. He’s among the league’s elite class in xSLG (.592), average exit velocity (95.6 mph) and hard-hit rate (57.1%).

Rays vs. Blue Jays picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 05/15/2025.

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Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks Game 6: Bet on Jokic, Hartenstein to make noise

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets look to defend home court on Thursday night and push this second-round series to a Game 7.

The pregame narrative: Jokic dropped 44 points last time out, but his Nuggets came up short on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC (-139) is now the odds-on favourite to win the NBA Finals.

I’m backing Jokic and Thunder big man Isaiah Hartenstein in my Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 6 on May 15.

Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 28.5 points (-118)

Jokic is everything to the Nuggets, and with their season on the line, I expect him to have a huge night.

At 30.0 points, 14.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists, Jokic is leading Denver in all major statistical categories this series. He’s even the steals leader (2.0/game).

I’m focused on the scoring aspect, though, because I think this is a more palatable number than the overs on some of his other markets.

It’s a simplified stance, but I definitely expect Jokic to be more ball-dominant than usual in a do-or-die game.

Look at Jokic’s deployment in each of the past three games:

42+ minutes
22+ shot attempts
7+ attempted 3s

Jokic hadn’t played that many minutes in three straight games at any other point in the season. And he hadn’t attempted 22-plus shots in three straight since early December.

It should surprise no one that this three-time MVP is putting his team on his back again.

Jokic has only gone over 28.5 points in four of 12 playoff games. But two of those were 40-plus-point efforts against the Thunder — including a 44-point night in Game 5.

I think the dire circumstances will push Jokic to another hefty point total on Thursday.

Key stat: Jokic has cashed this bet in 36 of 82 games this year (playoffs included). He averaged a career-high 29.6 PPG during the regular season.

Game 6 prop prediction

Hartenstein over 20.5 points/rebounds (-125): He’s not the star of the show in OKC (far from it, actually), but Hartenstein is doing what is asked of him this postseason.

Simply put, he’s a big body who produces a solid rebounding output and some relatively efficient shooting.

And he’s been excellently reliable against this line.

Hartenstein is averaging 10.6 points and 9.2 rebounds this postseason. He is 6-3 against this prop.

Against the Nuggets in particular, Hartenstein has averaged 22.1 PR in seven matchups on the year, going 6-1 against this prop.

The 7-feet, 255-pound centre is unlikely to have a huge night as a scorer. But he’s a consistent double-double threat, and his high floor as a rebounder has yielded great success in this prop market.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 4:08 p.m. ET 05/14/2025.

Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks Game 6: Bet on Jokic, Hartenstein to make noise

Nikola Jokic and the Denver Nuggets look to defend home court on Thursday night and push this second-round series to a Game 7.

The pregame narrative: Jokic dropped 44 points last time out, but his Nuggets came up short on the road against the Oklahoma City Thunder. OKC (-139) is now the odds-on favourite to win the NBA Finals.

I’m backing Jokic and Thunder big man Isaiah Hartenstein in my Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks for Game 6 on May 15.

Thunder vs. Nuggets prop picks

Best Bet: Jokic over 27.5 points (-130)

Jokic is everything to the Nuggets, and with their season on the line, I expect him to have a huge night.

At 30.0 points, 14.8 rebounds and 5.2 assists, Jokic is leading Denver in all major statistical categories this series. He’s even the steals leader (2.0/game).

I’m focused on the scoring aspect, though, because I think this is a more palatable number than the overs on some of his other markets.

It’s a simplified stance, but I definitely expect Jokic to be more ball-dominant than usual in a do-or-die game.

Look at Jokic’s deployment in each of the past three games:

42+ minutes
22+ shot attempts
7+ attempted 3s

Jokic hadn’t played that many minutes in three straight games at any other point in the season. And he hadn’t attempted 22-plus shots in three straight since early December.

It should surprise no one that this three-time MVP is putting his team on his back again.

Jokic has only gone over 27.5 points in four of 12 playoff games. But two of those were 40-plus-point efforts against the Thunder — including a 44-point night in Game 5.

I think the dire circumstances will push Jokic to another hefty point total on Thursday.

Key stat: Jokic has cashed this bet in 42 of 82 games this year (playoffs included). He averaged a career-high 29.6 PPG during the regular season.

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Game 6 prop prediction

Hartenstein over 19.5 points/rebounds (-122): He’s not the star of the show in OKC (far from it, actually), but Hartenstein is doing what is asked of him this postseason.

Simply put, he’s a big body who produces a solid rebounding output and some relatively efficient shooting.

And he’s been excellently reliable against this line.

Hartenstein is averaging 10.6 points and 9.2 rebounds this postseason. He is 7-2 against this prop.

Against the Nuggets in particular, Hartenstein has averaged 22.1 PR in seven matchups on the year, going 7-0 against this prop.

The 7-feet, 255-pound centre is unlikely to have a huge night as a scorer. But he’s a consistent double-double threat, and his high floor as a rebounder has yielded great success in this prop market.

Nuggets vs. Thunder prop picks made at 3:48 p.m. ET 05/14/2025.

Best MLB prop bets May 14: Bet on Jacob Wilson and Jackson Merrill to rake

A trio of hitters stand out to me as logical MLB prop targets on Wednesday night.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Brandon Nimmo faces a familiar foe amid a hot streak and seems to have plenty of value to go over 1.5 bases. Elsewhere, Jackson Merrill and Jacob Wilson are off to exceptional starts in their respective second seasons.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 14.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Nimmo over 1.5 bases (+137)

Lefty-on-lefty matchups almost always favour the pitcher. But there’s a rare exception in this matchup between Nimmo and Pirates starter Bailey Falter.

Nimmo vs. LHPs: 10-for-34 (.294), 3 HR, .588 SLG

Falter vs. LHHs: 13-for-37 (.351), 2 HR, .541 SLG

Neither sample is massive, but the contrast is stark compared to how these players fare against righties.

That’s especially true for Falter, who has allowed a .945 OPS to left-hitting players this year and a .610 OPS to right-hitting players.

When facing lefties, Nimmo has done basically all his damage on fastballs. He’s 9-for-20 with a .950 SLG against fastballs from LHPs, per Baseball Savant.

Falter’s four-pitch mix includes sinkers and four-seamers, and he throws those pitches to lefties a combined 58.9% of the time.

If Nimmo is hunting fastballs, he’ll likely find something to put the barrel to.

We’ve seen it before, as Nimmo is 5-for-12 with a home run against Falter.

To me, this price is almost too good to be true for the Mets’ cleanup man.

Key stat: Nimmo has gone over 1.5 bases in three straight games and has a 1.007 OPS since April 28.

Best MLB picks

Wilson over 1.5 bases (+130): Wilson has a Luis-Arraez-like hitter’s profile. Despite a dearth of power, he’s finding success by guiding the bat through the zone on the proper plane.

Wilson is third from the bottom in MLB in bat speed, but he’s in the 97th percentile in xBA (.319) and the 100th percentile in squared-up rate.

He also rarely walks and rarely strikes out, which makes him a great candidate to clear a bases prop.

Among 159 qualified hitters, Wilson has the …

2nd-lowest K%
11th-lowest BB%

The 2023 sixth-overall pick can still run into one, by the way. He homered twice last night in a 4-for-5 performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers.

Wilson has cashed this bet in eight of his past 12 games. As the leadoff man on a road team tonight, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to get this done.

Merrill over 1.5 bases (-134): Merrill, the National League Rookie of the Year runner-up from a season ago, has picked up right where he left off.

Not even a four-week absence due to a hamstring injury could slow him down. The outfielder is 14-for-27 (.519) this month with four extra-base hits.

On the season, Merrill has a 1.183 OPS and has cashed this bet in 11 of 16 games.

Now he’ll face right-hander Kyle Hendricks with a platoon advantage. The left-hitting Merrill has a .561 SLG in 446 at-bats against righties.

Hendricks has a 6.93 ERA in his past five starts, allowing 34 baserunners and 19 runs in that span.

MLB prop picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET on 05/14/2025

Best MLB prop bets May 14: Bet on Jacob Wilson and Jackson Merrill to rake

A trio of hitters stand out to me as logical MLB prop targets on Wednesday night.

Today’s MLB props narrative: Brandon Nimmo faces a familiar foe amid a hot streak and seems to have plenty of value to go over 1.5 bases. Elsewhere, Jackson Merrill and Jacob Wilson are off to exceptional starts in their respective second seasons.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 14.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Nimmo over 1.5 bases (+150)

Lefty-on-lefty matchups almost always favour the pitcher. But there’s a rare exception in this matchup between Nimmo and Pirates starter Bailey Falter.

Nimmo vs. LHPs: 10-for-34 (.294), 3 HR, .588 SLG

Falter vs. LHHs: 13-for-37 (.351), 2 HR, .541 SLG