A trio of hitters stand out to me as logical MLB prop targets on Wednesday night.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Brandon Nimmo faces a familiar foe amid a hot streak and seems to have plenty of value to go over 1.5 bases. Elsewhere, Jackson Merrill and Jacob Wilson are off to exceptional starts in their respective second seasons.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for May 14.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Nimmo over 1.5 bases (+150)
Lefty-on-lefty matchups almost always favour the pitcher. But there’s a rare exception in this matchup between Nimmo and Pirates starter Bailey Falter.
- Nimmo vs. LHPs: 10-for-34 (.294), 3 HR, .588 SLG
- Falter vs. LHHs: 13-for-37 (.351), 2 HR, .541 SLG
Neither sample is massive, but the contrast is stark compared to how these players fare against righties.
That’s especially true for Falter, who has allowed a .945 OPS to left-hitting players this year and a .610 OPS to right-hitting players.
When facing lefties, Nimmo has done basically all his damage on fastballs. He’s 9-for-20 with a .950 SLG against fastballs from LHPs, per Baseball Savant.
Falter’s four-pitch mix includes sinkers and four-seamers, and he throws those pitches to lefties a combined 58.9% of the time.
If Nimmo is hunting fastballs, he’ll likely find something to put the barrel to.
We’ve seen it before, as Nimmo is 5-for-12 with a home run against Falter.
To me, this price is almost too good to be true for the Mets’ cleanup man.
Key stat: Nimmo has gone over 1.5 bases in three straight games and has a 1.007 OPS since April 28.
Best MLB picks
Wilson over 1.5 bases (+133): Wilson has a Luis-Arraez-like hitter’s profile. Despite a dearth of power, he’s finding success by guiding the bat through the zone on the proper plane.
Wilson is third from the bottom in MLB in bat speed, but he’s in the 97th percentile in xBA (.319) and the 100th percentile in squared-up rate.
He also rarely walks and rarely strikes out, which makes him a great candidate to clear a bases prop.
Among 159 qualified hitters, Wilson has the …
- 2nd-lowest K%
- 11th-lowest BB%
The 2023 sixth-overall pick can still run into one, by the way. He homered twice last night in a 4-for-5 performance against the Los Angeles Dodgers.
Wilson has cashed this bet in eight of his past 12 games. As the leadoff man on a road team tonight, he’ll have plenty of opportunities to get this done.
Merrill over 1.5 bases (-113): Merrill, the National League Rookie of the Year runner-up from a season ago, has picked up right where he left off.
Not even a four-week absence due to a hamstring injury could slow him down. The outfielder is 14-for-27 (.519) this month with four extra-base hits.
On the season, Merrill has a 1.183 OPS and has cashed this bet in 11 of 16 games.
Now he’ll face right-hander Kyle Hendricks with a platoon advantage. The left-hitting Merrill has a .561 SLG in 446 at-bats against righties.
Hendricks has a 6.93 ERA in his past five starts, allowing 34 baserunners and 19 runs in that span.
MLB prop picks made at 12:40 p.m. ET on 05/14/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.