The Philadelphia Phillies and Cleveland Guardians wrap up their season series in prime time on Sunday Night Baseball.
The pregame narrative: If these teams meet again, it’ll have to be in the World Series. The pair of 2024 division winners split the first two games of this series, and they enter Sunday with identical 23-16 records.
Check out my Phillies vs. Guardians prop bets for Sunday Night Baseball on May 11, featuring Kyle Schwarber and Bo Naylor.
Phillies vs. Guardians prop bets
Best Bet: Schwarber over 1.5 bases (+120)
Schwarber has been a leadoff hitter for most of his Phillies tenure, but he’s built like a heart-of-the-order slugger.
And since sliding into Philadelphia’s cleanup spot, Schwarber is really looking the part.
- 1.030 OPS as the No. 4 hitter
- 2+ bases in 11 of 25 games
The left-hitting Schwarber does particularly well against right-handed pitching, which is part of the calculus for this prop bet, too.
Throughout his career, his OPS against righties (.870) far exceeds his OPS against lefties (.758).
Schwarber will face Cleveland’s Luis Ortiz (2-3, 5.30 ERA), who has been giving up a ton of hard contact so far.
Ortiz ranks in the fifth percentile in average exit velocity (92.5 mph), per Baseball Savant, and the 8th percentile in barrel rate (13.2%).
On the offensive side, Schwarber ranks in the 94th percentile in average exit velo (93.8 mph) and the 78th percentile in barrel rate (13.3%).
Key Stat: Schwarber has gone over 1.5 bases in eight of his past 13 games, posting a .633 SLG in that span.
Best MLB picks
Naylor under 0.5 hits (-122): I tend not to dabble with this market when the under has odds this short, but I think Naylor is worth a fade with Zack Wheeler on the mound.
Wheeler has struck out Naylor in both previous plate appearances against him and is in quite a groove right now.
Over his past four starts (26.2 innings), Wheeler has a 12.8 K/9 and a .194 opponent batting average. If someone is going to break through against him, I just don’t expect it to be Naylor.
The Mississauga, Ontario native is batting .202 and has gone hitless in 12 of 26 starts.
Naylor’s poor results are backed by a .205 xBA. That ranks in the fifth percentile in MLB.
Phillies vs. Guardians prop picks made at 1:32 p.m. ET on 05/11/2025.
Looking to get started? Sign up here.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.