There’s a handful of afternoon ballgames in MLB on Thursday, but my primary focus is on the nightcap between the Los Angeles Dodgers and Arizona Diamondbacks.
Today’s MLB props narrative: Yoshinobu Yamamoto looks to continue his glistening start to 2025 against Brandon Pfaadt and the D-backs. Yamamoto won both of his starts against Arizona a season ago.
In addition to Yamamoto, my best MLB prop bets for May 8 also feature plays on Freddie Freeman and Danny Jansen.
MLB prop bets
Best bet: Jansen under 0.5 hits (+105)
Plenty of Blue Jays fans were surely sour when Jansen was traded at last year’s deadline, but the early returns from his post-Toronto days justify the move.
Between last year’s stint with the Red Sox and this year’s tenure with the Phillies, here’s what Jansen has put together offensively:
- 54 games
- .163 BA
- .572 OPS
- 74 wRC+
- 17.3 BB%
The basement-level batting average and the sky-high walk rate both matter for a hits prop.
On one hand, Jansen isn’t generating a lot of quality contact when he puts bat to ball … and on the other hand, he’s content to keep the bat on his shoulder and simply take a free base.
Tonight, Jansen faces Phillies left-hander Jesus Luzardo, who is 3-0 with a 1.94 ERA through seven starts.
Luzardo, who is Peruvian-born but raised in Florida, has held opponents to a .219 BA when pitching on the road this year.
You might think the right-hitting Jansen would have a leg up on Luzardo in a lefty-on-righty matchup. But that isn’t true.
Jansen is just 2-for-25 (.080) against LHPs this season and has a career .197 BA against southpaws overall.
Key stat: Jansen ranks in the third percentile in xBA (.197), per Baseball Savant. He’s also in the bottom-15th percentile in xSLG (.335) and average exit velocity (86.6 mph).
Dodgers MLB picks
Betts over 0.5 runs (-110): How can you not like Betts to score at this price?
He bats in the No. 2 spot in the Dodgers’ order, with the hottest hitter in baseball — Freddie Freeman — right behind.
In his past 10 games, Freeman is batting .500 with seven extra-base hits and 17 RBI. I thought about just taking Freeman over 1.5 bases (-121), but Betts’ price to score is even better.
L.A. faces Arizona starter Brandon Pfaadt tonight, and there’s a lot of positive history there on the Dodgers’ side of things.
- Betts has reached base in 6 of 13 plate appearances against Pfaadt (.462 OBP).
- Freeman and L.A. cleanup hitter Will Smith are a combined 7-for-21 with four doubles and a home run vs. Pfaadt.
Oh, and Betts has scored in seven consecutive starts.
Yamamoto over 17.5 outs (-120): Yamamoto is off to a remarkable start in Year 2 with the Dodgers. Through seven outings, he owns the lowest ERA in the majors (0.90).
Without Shohei Ohtani, Tyler Glasnow or Blake Snell available to pitch right now, Yamamoto is the de facto ace of the squad. And the Dodgers aren’t treating the 26-year-old with kid gloves.
- He’s averaging 17.1 outs and is 4-3 against this line.
- Yamamoto has thrown 90+ pitches in six straight starts.
Last year, Yamamoto cashed this bet in both outings against the Diamondbacks, allowing two runs while striking out 13 batters over 12.1 innings.
He’s also catching the D-backs at a decent time. Over the past two weeks, the typically potent offence ranks 15th in runs and 18th in wRC+.
MLB prop picks made at 1:15 p.m. ET on 05/08/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.