Looking to avoid the wrong end of a sweep, the Toronto Blue Jays wrap up a three-game series on Thursday night against the Los Angeles Angels.
The pregame narrative: Toronto has dropped four in a row, thanks in part to some uncharacteristic lapses from the bullpen. Chris Bassitt, sporting a sub-3.00 ERA through seven starts, looks to help the team right the ship tonight.
I’m backing Bassitt in one of my Blue Jays picks vs. the Angels on May 8.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels
Best Bet: Taylor Ward under 0.5 hits (+140)
Ward opened the season in his typical leadoff spot for the Angels. But when his power numbers outperformed his on-base numbers, he was bumped to the cleanup spot.
Now nothing seems to be going right.
In 12 games since sliding back in the order, Ward has a .095/.156/.190 slash line.
His .177 xBA in that span, per Baseball Savant, isn’t a whole lot better. Neither is the 40.0% strikeout rate it comes with.
Ward has an interesting statistical profile, given that he strikes out a lot for such a choosy hitter. He ranks in the 16th percentile in K rate (28.2%) despite owning a 92nd-percentile chase rate (19.8%).
He’s been caught looking on a whopping 40.0% of his strikeouts this year. For context, the MLB average is 23.0%.
What that tells me is he’s often not even getting the bat off his shoulder … so why should I back him to get a hit?
Ward is 1-for-9 with three Ks and a walk against Bassitt. He’s hitless in nine of his past 12 games, and I expect another dud tonight.
Key stat: Ward’s .226 xBA ranks in the 20th percentile. He only has four hits in his past 47 plate appearances.
Quick pick
Bassitt over 5.5 Ks (-163): The odds don’t make this a very exciting play, but I’m still interested in backing Bassitt tonight.
He’s failed to cashed this bet in three straight starts, but his overall strikeout numbers are still strong.
- 6.1 Ks per start
- 25.7 K% (72nd percentile)
Having pitched into the sixth inning or deeper in six of seven starts, Bassitt should have enough rope to contend for this strikeout milestone. And he’s up against a team with the second-highest K rate in the majors (26.9%).
In his lone start against the Angels last year, Bassitt struck out six batters over 6.0 innings.
Blue Jays picks vs. Angels made at 1:10 p.m. ET on 05/08/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.