Jordan Horrobin

If you like offence, I think you’re going to like this Monday Night Football matchup between the Cincinnati Bengals and Dallas Cowboys.

The pregame narrative: Cincinnati has practically been scoring at will, and its defence (along with Dallas’) has been quite generous to the opposition. My +325 SGP for tonight features an alt over, as well as prop bets on Chase Brown and Jake Ferguson.

Check out my Bengals vs. Cowboys same-game parlay predictions for Week 14 below.

Bengals vs. Cowboys same-game parlay predictions

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Parlay: Over 44.5 points + Brown over 79.5 rush/rec. yards + Brown anytime TD + Ferguson over 34.5 rec. yards (+325)

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Over 44.5 points (-210): Given how the Bengals and Cowboys’ seasons are going, this isn’t the MNF matchup that most people wanted. But the scoring potential adds some intrigue.

• Cincinnati boasts the No. 6 scoring offence, averaging 27.9 PPG.

• Dallas and Cincy’s defence rank 29th and 31st, respectively, in scoring. They’re both allowing more than 28 PPG.

Overs are 9-3 in Bengals games this year, and all nine of the overs totalled 50-plus points.

The Cowboys, meanwhile, have shown some offensive life the past two weeks by putting up 61 points in a Cooper Rush-led offence.

Also, overs are 5-1 in Dallas home games this season.

Other parlay picks

Brown over 79.5 rushing/receiving yards (-210): I’ve already backed Brown on his standard scrimmage yards prop (over 99.5) as my best bet for MNF. So what’s the harm in doubling up with a teased-down line?

Brown turned in a 100-yard day on just 15 touches last week, marking his fourth straight game above 90 yards.

Now he’ll face a Cowboys defence that is absolutely brutal against the run:

• 31st in rush yards/game
• 28th in rush yards/attempt
• 32nd in EPA/rush, per rbsdm.com

Brown has a high floor as a receiver, too, recording multiple receptions in 11 of 12 games. That’s why I like the scrimmage yards play as opposed to just backing him on the ground.

Brown anytime TD (-210): Let’s give Brown a few more flowers, shall we?

When teammate Zack Moss got hurt in Week 8, Brown evolved from a change-of-pace weapon into a do-it-all back. That includes red zone work.

In four games from Week 9 onward, Brown has accrued 13 carries inside the 10-yard line. He’d only had three carries from that area in the previous eight games.

Brown has eight TDs in his past nine games. In a matchup that seems very offence-friendly, I say he finds the end zone again.

Ferguson over 34.5 receiving yards (-137): The risk with this pick is that Ferguson (concussion) hasn’t played since Week 11 and may not have a ton of chemistry with Rush.

But I’m banking on a talented tight end to return to a solid workload after a full week of participation in practice.

In Ferguson’s absence, backup tight end Luke Schoonmaker saw 20 targets over three games, converting that into 144 yards.

Ferguson is still the Cowboys’ clear-cut TE1, so if he gets a similar target volume to what Schoonmaker has seen, this over should cash.

Since the start of last year, Ferguson has averaged 45.3 yards in 27 games.

Picks made at 11:40 a.m. on 12/09/24.

The Dallas Cowboys host the Cincinnati Bengals on Monday Night Football in a game that lacks meaning in the standings — but could feature a lot of offence.

The pregame narrative: I like the over in this game, and I expect Chase Brown to be heavily involved for the visiting Bengals.

Check out my Bengals vs. Cowboys best bets for Monday Night Football on Dec. 9.

Bengals vs. Cowboys best bets

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Best Bet: Brown over 99.5 rushing/receiving yards (-114)

Brown had his most efficient performance in months last Sunday, churning for 100 scrimmage yards on just 15 touches.

The Bengals’ fifth-ranked scoring offence has a lot of mouths to feed, so it’s not always possible to saddle Brown with a hefty workload.

But Brown, who’s had 14-plus touches in eight of nine games since Week 4, has a high floor for usage. And he should thrive against the Cowboys’ pitiful run defence:

• 31st in rush yards/game
• 28th in rush yards/attempt
• 32nd in EPA/rush, per rbsdm.com

I don’t simply want to back Brown as a runner, though, because he’s enjoyed some solid work in the receiving game.

Brown has multiple receptions in 11 of 12 games, and he has 30-plus receiving yards in four straight.

The London, Ontario native is a reasonable pick to go over his yardage props as a runner or receiver. So why not put ’em together?

Key stat: Brown has cashed this bet in three of his past four games, averaging 123.5 scrimmage yards in that span.

Quick pick

Over 49.5 points (-109): Neither the Cowboys nor the Bengals are on a path to the playoffs, but they’re both capable of putting up points.

And just as importantly, they’re capable of allowing points.

Dallas and Cincinnati’s scoring defences rank 29th and 31st, respectively, in the NFL. Both teams are allowing more than 28.0 PPG.

The Bengals have cleared this total in five straight games and nine of 12 on the year. Their defence takes plenty of punches, but quarterback Joe Burrow knows how to punch back.

As for the Cowboys, they’ve put up 61 points over the past two weeks and should be at least competent with Cooper Rush. Overs are 5-1 at AT&T Stadium this season.

Picks made at 3:30 p.m. ET 12/07/2024.

It’s an AFC West showdown on Sunday Night Football when the Kansas City Chiefs host the Los Angeles Chargers.

The pregame narrative: Isiah Pacheco looked strong in his return to action last week, and I expect him to clear a modest rushing yards total. In the receiving game, DeAndre Hopkins and Josh Palmer have my attention.

Check out my Chargers vs. Chiefs prop picks for Sunday Night Football on Dec. 8.

Chargers vs. Chiefs prop picks

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Best Bet: Pacheco over 51.5 rushing yards (-115)

Welcome back, Mr. Pacheco.

In his return from an ankle injury — suffered in Week 2 — Pacheco galloped for 44 yards on just seven carries. He showed more explosiveness than teammate Kareem Hunt has displayed all season.

Pacheco was a bell-cow tailback when the season began, but Hunt wasn’t on the team at that time. Although Hunt will likely remain involved, Pacheco’s opportunities should tick up after his successful return.

And a matchup against the Chargers is a nice spot to back Pacheco.

L.A. allows the fewest points per game, but its run defence isn’t nearly as daunting. The Chargers rank 23rd in yards per attempt (4.6) and 12th in success rate (37.9%).

Pacheco only had a 37% snap share last week. He could easily double that on Sunday night, and his carry count should grow, too.

Key stat: Since the start of the 2023 season, Pacheco has cashed this bet in 15 of 21 games.

Quick picks

Hopkins anytime TD (+210): This is a pretty nice price to ride with Hopkins, who’s seeing some grade-A opportunities to score for the Chiefs.

Again, the Chargers have the No. 1 scoring defence in the NFL (15.7 PPG). But Hopkins is a go-to guy in the red zone, and I’m buying the opportunity.

Over KC’s past five games, Hopkins has …

• 33 targets
• 24 catches
• 5 targets inside the 5-yard line
• 3 TDs

Hopkins has seen a target inside the five-yard line in four of those five matchups. It doesn’t get much better than that.

He’s coming off a nine-target week, which matched Hopkins’ highest total since joining the Chiefs.

Palmer over 37.5 receiving yards (-113): Ladd McConkey is banged up, having logged three limited practices and earning a “questionable” injury designation for this game. Even if McConkey plays, it’s possible that Justin Herbert won’t be able to lean on his top target as much.

Enter, Palmer.

Since Week 6, Palmer has averaged 43.0 receiving yards and cashed this bet in five of eight games.

The Chiefs allowed 340 passing yards to Aidan O’Connell last week and 263 yards to Bryce Young the week before. Justin Herbert is far better than both of those QBs, and Palmer should benefit.

Picks made at 1:30 p.m. ET 12/07/2024.