There’s only one NBA game tipping off Monday night, and it takes place inside Toronto’s Scotiabank Arena.
The pregame narrative: The Raptors host the New York Knicks, a squad that dominated this head-to-head matchup a season ago. Even so, I like Toronto to cover an alt spread at home tonight, and I’m backing Scottie Barnes and Jalen Brunson on the prop market to round out this SGP.
Check out my Knicks vs. Raptors same-game parlay predictions for Dec. 9.
Knicks vs. Raptors predictions
Go to full NBA betting markets
Parlay: Raptors +10.5 + Barnes over 7.5 assists + Brunson over 2.5 threes (+310)
Raptors +10.5 (-240): The NBA standings don’t mirror the ATS standings, but Raptors fans can at least be proud of their team’s effort level this season.
Toronto is 7-17 overall but 16-8 ATS. That includes a 9-3 ATS record at home.
Teasing the spread up to +10.5 means taking it to a number Toronto has covered in 17 of 24 games (70.8%).
New York has gone 2-6 ATS in its past eight games as a road favourite, losing five of those games straight up (at Mavericks, Jazz, Pacers, Hawks, Rockets).
Karl-Anthony Towns missed the Knicks’ Dec. 7 game, which was a home loss to the Pistons as 8-point favourites. He’s listed as questionable, and if he’s out — or even limited — that’ll certainly help Toronto.
SGP legs
Barnes over 7.5 assists (-155): Barnes went under this number in all three of his matchups against the Knicks last season, but he was also playing a less pass-happy brand of basketball.
- 2023-24: 6.1 assists, 10.7 potential assists/game
- 2024-25: 7.8 assists, 14.9 potential assists/game
That uptick in potential assists, which tracks the number of passes/game that immediately lead to a shot, tells a great story about how often Barnes is facilitating for his teammates.
Only six players in the NBA are averaging more potential assists per game. Barnes is ahead of big-time passers like Luka Doncic, James Harden and LaMelo Ball.
Barnes has cleared 7.5 assists in five straight games. He finished with exactly seven assists in each of the three games before that.
Brunson over 2.5 threes (-113): I like this as a straight wager, and it provides a nice boost to this SGP because of the negative correlation with Toronto’s alt spread.
Brunson is on an extended heater, shooting 45.5% from 3-point range over his past 13 games. He’s cashed this bet nine times in that span.
Toronto allows the eighth-most 3s per game to opposing point guards (3.3), per Betting Pros, and Brunson hit this over in three of four matchups against the Raps last year.
Picks made at 9:25 a.m. ET 12/09/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.