I’m fading one star and tailing another in Saturday’s Memphis Grizzlies vs. Boston Celtics matchup.
The pregame narrative: Jayson Tatum shoots a ton of 3s, and his matchup against Memphis should encourage him to keep that up. On the other side, Ja Morant is a solid plus-money fade as a rebounder. I’m also fading Jalen Duren
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Best bet: Tatum over 3.5 threes (-108)
Tatum loves shooting 3s, and the Memphis Grizzlies seem content with conceding them. This has volume play written all over it.
Memphis is actually one of the top teams at defending 3-point land, holding opponents to 33.9% shooting (fourth in the NBA) from outside.
But the Grizzlies play fast, which leads to more total attempted 3s.
- Opponents are firing 39.6 shots per game beyond the arc, which is the fourth-most in the league.
- Non-corner 3s are what the Grizzlies are most willing to allow, which makes sense because it’s a less efficient shot. Opponents are attempting 30.8% of all shots from a non-corner 3-point area, which is the fourth-highest in the NBA.
- That’s where Tatum comes in. He ranks in the 91st percentile of non-corner 3s attempted, per Cleaning The Glass.
If Memphis opts to defend the interior and/or the corners more thoroughly, Tatum should take his opportunities to let it fly.
That’s been a theme this season for the MVP hopeful, anyway. He’s averaging career highs in average makes (4.0) and attempts (10.5) from deep.
Key stat: Tatum has cashed this bet in 11 of his past 15 games. He also has an 0-for-10 performance from 3-point range in that span, which shows he’ll keep shooting even on a down night.
Quick picks
Duren under 8.5 rebounds (+100): If you’re a centre facing the New York Knicks, good luck.
Karl-Anthony Towns anchors the group at the five, but he gets ample help when needed from guys like OG Anunoby and Mikal Bridges.
Collectively, the Knicks allow the fewest rebounds per game to their opponents. And according to Betting Pros, they also allow the fewest rebounds centres in particular.
Duren has hit this under in five of his past seven games. When he faced the Knicks on Nov. 1, he finished with seven rebounds .
Morant under 4.5 rebounds (-108): Morant was a strong rebounder in each of the previous three seasons, but his volume is way down this year.
It’s tough to tell if that’ll continue, but I’m willing to take a shot at this price.
- Morant is averaging 4.0 rebounds/game in 13 games.
- He’s finished u4.5 rebounds in six straight games, collecting with three or fewer rebounds in five straight.
Picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 12/07/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.