It’s conference championship week in college football, and I’m going big with four player props.
The pregame narrative: On Friday night, I’m fading the ever-electric Ashton Jeanty (Boise State) against a sky-high rushing yards prop. From Saturday’s action, I like Roderick Daniels Jr. (SMU) and Jaydon Blue (Texas) to do damage.
Check out the best college football prop picks for Week 14 action on Nov. 30.
College football prop picks
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Best Bet: Daniels over 39.5 receiving yards (+130)
Daniels’ surge within the SMU Mustangs’ offence directly correlates with the moment RJ Maryland went down.
Maryland, a junior tight end who turned 34 targets into 359 yards in seven games, suffered a knee injury against Stanford in Week 8. From that point forward, Daniels has stepped into a much bigger role as a receiver.
Here are Daniels’ per-game averages before Maryland got hurt:
- 2.1 targets
- 1.6 catches
- 20.0 yards
- 40+ yards in 1/7 games
And here’s what Daniels has posted since Maryland’s injury:
- 6.0 targets
- 4.0 catches
- 72.4 yards
- 40+ yards in 4/5 games
Daniels has big-play ability, which he flashed with an 81-yard score against Duke back in late October. But his notable uptick in target volume is particularly encouraging because it raises his game-to-game floor.
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Given that Daniels averages 16.7 yards per reception, he should only need two or three catches to cash this bet.
The senior receiver has four or more catches in three consecutive games, and I’m eager to tail a player who’s trending up.
Key stat: Daniels is coming off season-high totals for targets (eight) and catches (six). He has at least four targets in every game since Maryland’s injury.
Quick picks
Jeanty under 172.5 rushing yards (-118): I honestly hate to fade Jeanty, who’s had an exceptional season and will be named a Heisman Trophy finalist on Monday.
But this is a huge number against the UNLV Rebels’ strong run defence.
- 10th in rush yards/game (101.1)
- 15th in yards yards/attempt (3.2)
- 28th in EPA/rush (-0.07), per gameonpaper.com
Oh, and UNLV “held” Jeanty to a season-low 128 yards on 33 carries back in October.
Jeanty’s 2,288 rush yards are the fifth-most all-time, and the most since Melvin Gordon (Wisconsin) in 2014. He’s averaging 190.7 yards/game and can definitely hit this lofty over.
But he’s been under 172.5 rush yards in four of his past six games, and his worst output of the season came against the team he’ll see on Friday.
Blue anytime TD scorer (+155): Even if the Texas Longhorns struggle to run against the Georgia Bulldogs like they did during the regular season, this is a nice price to buy in on Blue.
The junior tailback has 10 TDs in 11 games this year, cashing this bet seven times.
Blue didn’t log any carries against Georgia on Oct. 19, as Texas collectively rushed for just 29 yards on 27 attempts … but he had seven catches and a TD as a receiver.
Averaging 12.9 touches per game, Blue is a fair bet to find the end zone on the ground or through the air.
Jordan James under 89.5 rushing yards (-110): James has had a lot of impressive performances for the Oregon Ducks this year, but he’s about to face his toughest test yet.
The Penn State Nittany Lions’ rush defence is unlike anything James has seen this year:
- 3rd in EPA/rush (-0.18)
- T-7th in rush yards/game (97.0)
- 12th in yards/rush (3.1)
James has only faced one top-20 defence in terms of EPA/rush, and he’s gone under this yardage prop in three of his past six games.
As for the Nittany Lions, they’ve only allowed two 90-yard rushers all season.
Picks made at 1:20 p.m. on 12/06/2024.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.