Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

NCAA men’s basketball parlay predictions Feb. 16: Bet on Louisville, Wisconsin-Milwaukee to cover alt spreads

After cashing a college basketball parlay yesterday, let’s see if I can run it back during Sunday’s action.

The pregame narrative: An alt total in a matchup between the Utah State Aggies and New Mexico Lobos serves as the backbone for my parlay. I also have alt spreads on the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers and the Louisville Cardinals.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 16.

NCAA basketball predictions

Go to full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Utah St./New Mexico o157.5 pts | Wisconsin-Milwaukee -3.5 | Louisville ML (+255)

Utah State/New Mexico over 157.5 points (-143): Based on the odds, this is the riskiest pick on my three-leg ticket. If you look at the previous matchup between these teams, it’s easy to see why.

On Feb. 1, New Mexico earned a blowout victory in a game with just 145 total points. But that was largely thanks to an uncharacteristic face-plant by Utah State’s offence:

37.5 FG% (24-of-64)
16.1 3PT% (5-of-31)
43.5 FT% (10-of-23)

Brutal shooting nights happen sometimes, and that was one of them. But for an Aggies team that ranks 14th in NCAA Division I in effective field goal percentage (56.3%), I doubt that’ll happen again on Sunday.

And one way or another, these teams should have plenty of chances to score because they both play fast and draw ample fouls.

New Mexico averages the third-fastest possession length and ranks 17th in free throws per game. Utah State averages the 47th-fastest possession length and ranks 45th in free throws per game.

BartTorvik.com projects Sunday’s game to feature 164 total points.

Other parlay picks

Wisconsin-Milwaukee -3.5 (-175): I’ll admit this is a bit of a sickos pick, but the rationale holds up.

Milwaukee went on the road last month and dominated the Northern Kentucky Norse, 74-54. Now they’ll square up on the Panthers’ home court, and all I’m asking for is a win by a tiny margin.

Despite being a relatively short team, the Panthers rebound exceptionally well:

+10.7 average rebound margin per game
40.4% offensive rebound rate (2nd in D-I)
26.2% opponent offensive rebound rate (34th)

When these teams met up on Jan. 24, Milwaukee out-rebounded Northern Kentucky, 33-20.

So despite the Panthers’ 18 turnovers in that game, they still won comfortably.

The Norse are 2-9-0 ATS on the road this year. I don’t see how they scratch out a win today.

Louisville ML (-300): Louisville is having a strong season and should land in the NCAA tournament.

The Cardinals (19-6, 12-2 ACC) lost five Quad 1 games in the first month-and-a-half, but they’ve put forth a stellar effort in conference play.

I can’t say the same for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-13, 5-8 ACC), who needed double overtime to beat lowly Boston College on Wednesday and prevent a four-game losing streak.

Louisville and Notre Dame haven’t met yet this season, but the chasm in their ACC results gives me faith in the Cardinals.

The Cards are experienced and balanced, with four seniors averaging 12.0 points or more.

Picks made at 1:20 p.m. ET 02/16/2025

Creighton vs. St. John’s college basketball SGP predictions: Ride with Ashworth, Kalkbrenner in +320 SGP

Two of the very best in the Big East square off Sunday, as the No. 9 St. John’s Red Storm host the No. 24 Creighton Bluejays.

The pregame narrative: Instead of picking a side, I’m riding with both defences to keep scoring to a minimum this afternoon. From the player prop market, I’m looking to back Creighton’s Steven Ashworth and Ryan Kalkbrenner.

Check out my Creighton vs. St. John’s predictions for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 16.

Creighton vs. St. John’s predictions

Go to full college basketball betting markets.

Parlay: Under 145.5 points | Ashworth 15+ points | Kalbrenner 8+ rebounds (+320)

Embed: #109597

Under 145.5 points (-177): These programs both boast elite defences, and that was certainly on display when they last met on New Year’s Eve.

That day, Creighton eked out a 57-56 win on home court. There were only 13 total free throw attempts in the game.

Limited freebies at the line is Creighton’s finest skill. The team allows the second-fewest attempted free throws in NCAA Division I (11.0/game). The Bluejays are also 16th in opponent eFG% (45.7).

The true defensive stalwart in this matchup is St. John’s, though. Just take a moment to marvel at these defensive rankings:

2nd in adjusted efficiency, per KenPom.com
7th in 2PT%
9th in block rate
14th in turnover rate

St. John’s opponents average the 28th-longest offensive possession time, which is at least somewhat tied to the Red Storm’s unwillingness to give up anything easy.

Today’s game would need a 33-point uptick from the last head-to-head matchup to hit this over. I don’t expect that with two defensively sound programs on the floor.

SGP legs

Ashworth 15+ points (-210): If you want to know how much trust Creighton has in its fifth-year point guard, peep his stat line from when the Bluejays last faced St. John’s.

Ashworth had a career-high 10 turnovers — more turnovers than St. John’s committed as a team — and yet he still buried a game-high 18 points on 18 shots.

It was far from his most efficient outing, but he had enough volume to counteract a comedy of errors.

Creighton has asked more of Ashworth this year than many would’ve expected. But a season-ending injury for Pop Isaacs in December necessitated the extra workload.

Since Dec. 7, when Isaacs was sidelined indefinitely, here’s what Ashworth has accomplished as a scorer:

17.2 PPG
50.7/35.9/96.8 shooting
15+ points in 11/16 games

Kalkbrenner 8+ rebounds (-167): Only three players in Big East history have earned Defensive Player of the Year honours three times: Patrick Ewing, Alonzo Mourning and Kalkbrenner.

How’s that for some elite company?

The 7-foot-1 centre knows how to protect the rim as well as anyone in D-I, and he’s a strong force on the glass. Kalkbrenner leads the conference in rebounding (8.5 boards/game).

Everyone in St. John’s standard rotation is 6-foot-9 or shorter, so Kalkbrenner will have a clear size advantage.

He put that advantage to good use in the Dec. 31 matchup, snagging nine rebounds and 16 points on 8-of-12 shooting.

Kalkbrenner has cashed this bet in 11 of his past 12 games.

Picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET 02/16/2025

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NCAA men’s basketball parlay predictions Feb. 16: Bet on Louisville, Wisconsin-Milwaukee to cover alt spreads

After cashing a +382 college basketball parlay yesterday, let’s see if I can run it back during Sunday’s action.

The pregame narrative: An alt total in a matchup between the Utah State Aggies and New Mexico Lobos serves as the backbone for my parlay. I also have alt spreads on the Wisconsin-Milwaukee Panthers and the Louisville Cardinals.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 16.

NCAA basketball predictions

Go to full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Utah St./New Mexico o157.5 pts | Wisconsin-Milwaukee -1.5 | Louisville -3.5 (+282)

Embed: #109591

Utah State/New Mexico over 157.5 points (-155): Based on the odds, this is the riskiest pick on my three-leg ticket. If you look at the previous matchup between these teams, it’s easy to see why.

On Feb. 1, New Mexico earned a blowout victory in a game with just 145 total points. But that was largely thanks to an uncharacteristic face-plant by Utah State’s offence:

37.5 FG% (24-of-64)
16.1 3PT% (5-of-31)
43.5 FT% (10-of-23)

Brutal shooting nights happen sometimes, and that was one of them. But for an Aggies team that ranks 14th in NCAA Division I in effective field goal percentage (56.3%), I doubt that’ll happen again on Sunday.

And one way or another, these teams should have plenty of chances to score because they both play fast and draw ample fouls.

New Mexico averages the third-fastest possession length and ranks 17th in free throws per game. Utah State averages the 47th-fastest possession length and ranks 45th in free throws per game.

BartTorvik.com projects Sunday’s game to feature 164 total points.

Other parlay picks

Wisconsin-Milwaukee -1.5 (-215): I’ll admit this is a bit of a sickos pick, but the rationale holds up.

Milwaukee went on the road last month and dominated the Northern Kentucky Norse, 74-54. Now they’ll square up on the Panthers’ home court, and all I’m asking for is a win by a tiny margin.

Despite being a relatively short team, the Panthers rebound exceptionally well:

+10.7 average rebound margin per game
40.4% offensive rebound rate (2nd in D-I)
26.2% opponent offensive rebound rate (34th)

When these teams met up on Jan. 24, Milwaukee out-rebounded Northern Kentucky, 33-20.

So despite the Panthers’ 18 turnovers in that game, they still won comfortably.

The Norse are 2-9-0 ATS on the road this year. I don’t see how they scratch out a win today.

Louisville -3.5 (-190): Louisville is having a strong season and should land in the NCAA tournament.

The Cardinals (19-6, 12-2 ACC) lost five Quad 1 games in the first month-and-a-half, but they’ve put forth a stellar effort in conference play.

I can’t say the same for the Notre Dame Fighting Irish (11-13, 5-8 ACC), who needed double overtime to beat lowly Boston College on Wednesday and prevent a four-game losing streak.

Louisville and Notre Dame haven’t met yet this season, but the chasm in their ACC results gives me faith in the Cardinals. Also, they’ve covered this spread in 11 straight games.

The Cards are experienced and balanced, with four seniors averaging 12.0 points or more.

Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 02/16/2025

NBA All-Star Game predictions and odds: Chuck’s Global Stars have what it takes to win at +170

The NBA’s all-star weekend wraps up on Sunday night with a multi-part all-star game that features four teams.

The narrative: Last year featured a cut-and-dry showdown between Eastern Conference and Western Conference stars. But now there are four teams vying for the bulk of a $1.8 million purse, with a mishmash of players from both conferences.

Check out our NBA All-Star Game predictions and odds for the event on Feb. 16.

NBA All-Star Game predictions

Team	Odds to win
Team Shaq (OGs)	+100
Team Chuck (Global Stars)	+170
Team Kenny (Young Stars)	+450
Team Candace (Rising Stars)	+1,100

NBA odds as of 9:55 a.m. ET on 02/16/25.

To bet on the NBA All-Star Game, you first have to understand how the event works. And in typical NBA fashion, there’s been some tinkering.

There are four teams consisting of eight players each.

It’s a three-game tournament (not a round-robin), with just a semifinal round and the finals.

For each matchup, the first team to 40 points wins.

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1889469563546251419

Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and Shaquille O’Neal were tasked with drafting their teams from a pool of 24 all-stars (Trae Young and Kyrie Irving are serving as injury replacements).

The fourth team, overseen by WNBA legend Candace Parker, is a group of rookies and sophomores including Zach Edey, Stephon Castle, Keyonte George and Dalton Knecht.

NBA ASG pick to win

Chuck’s Global Stars (+170)

The NHL and NBA have opposite problems right now during their respective midseason hiatuses.

NHLers are arguably trying too hard in the 4 Nations Face-Off, while many are skeptical that NBA players will try hard enough.

This year’s NBA All-Star Game format is a valid attempt at preventing another shoot-from-anywhere circus. With a hard cap of 40 points per side, maybe teams will play with a bit more structure.

If you’re willing to bank on a heightened level of competitiveness, you have to love what Chuck’s Global Stars are bringing to the table.

Go to full NBA all-star betting markets

The NBA MVP race is down to two players, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, and both are on Chuck’s squad.

So too is the runaway frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, Victor Wembanyama.

Oh, and let’s not forget Karl-Anthony Towns, who dropped a 50-burger for the West at least year’s event.

Shaq’s OGs still have the most overall brand recognition, led by LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum. They’re likely also favoured because they have a perceived easier path to the final game (the OGs are heavily favoured in the semis against the Rising Stars).

The Global Stars, meanwhile, are -200 moneyline favourites to beat the Young Stars and reach the all-star finale.

If that happens, I expect the Global Stars’ impressive consolidation of talent to carry them all the way.

NBA All-Star Game predictions and odds: Chuck’s Global Stars have what it takes to win at +175

The NBA’s all-star weekend wraps up on Sunday night with a multi-part all-star game that features four teams.

The narrative: Last year featured a cut-and-dry showdown between Eastern Conference and Western Conference stars. But now there are four teams vying for the bulk of a $1.8 million purse, with a mishmash of players from both conferences.

Check out our NBA All-Star Game predictions and odds for the event on Feb. 16.

NBA All-Star Game predictions

Click on linked odds below to bet now. Note: Lines have changed/market no longer available if grey.

Team	Odds to win
Team Shaq (OGs)	+110
Team Chuck (Global Stars)	+175
Team Kenny (Young Stars)	+400
Team Candace (Rising Stars)	+800

NBA odds as of 9:15 a.m. ET on 02/16/25.

To bet on the NBA All-Star Game, you first have to understand how the event works. And in typical NBA fashion, there’s been some tinkering.

There are four teams consisting of eight players each.

It’s a three-game tournament (not a round-robin), with just a semifinal round and the finals.

For each matchup, the first team to 40 points wins.

https://twitter.com/NBA/status/1889469563546251419

Charles Barkley, Kenny Smith and Shaquille O’Neal were tasked with drafting their teams from a pool of 24 all-stars (Trae Young and Kyrie Irving are serving as injury replacements).

The fourth team, overseen by WNBA legend Candace Parker, is a group of rookies and sophomores including Zach Edey, Stephon Castle, Keyonte George and Dalton Knecht.

NBA ASG pick to win

Chuck’s Global Stars (+175)

The NHL and NBA have opposite problems right now during their respective midseason hiatuses.

NHLers are arguably trying too hard in the 4 Nations Face-Off, while many are skeptical that NBA players will try hard enough.

This year’s NBA All-Star Game format is a valid attempt at preventing another shoot-from-anywhere circus. With a hard cap of 40 points per side, maybe teams will play with a bit more structure.

If you’re willing to bank on a heightened level of competitiveness, you have to love what Chuck’s Global Stars are bringing to the table.

Go to full NBA all-star betting markets.

The NBA MVP race is down to two players, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Nikola Jokic, and both are on Chuck’s squad.

So too is the runaway frontrunner for Defensive Player of the Year, Victor Wembanyama.

Oh, and let’s not forget Karl-Anthony Towns, who dropped a 50-burger for the West at least year’s event.

Shaq’s OGs still have the most overall brand recognition, led by LeBron James, Stephen Curry, Kevin Durant and Jayson Tatum. They’re likely also favoured because they have a perceived easier path to the final game (the OGs are heavily favoured in the semis against the Rising Stars).

The Global Stars, meanwhile, are -190 moneyline favourites to beat the Young Stars and reach the all-star finale.

If that happens, I expect the Global Stars’ impressive consolidation of talent to carry them all the way.

Auburn vs. Alabama college basketball best bet: Take the over in elite SEC showdown

For the first time in SEC men’s basketball history, we have a No. 1 versus No. 2 matchup.

The pregame narrative: The No. 1 Auburn Tigers head into enemy territory to face the No. 2 Alabama Crimson Tide. Alabama is a slight favourite, but my attention is on the over/under.

Check out my Auburn vs. Alabama best bet for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 15.

Auburn vs. Alabama best bet

Go to full college basketball betting markets.

Best Bet: Over 171.5 points (-120)

Embed: #109553

Alabama is the highest-scoring team in NCAA Division I (90.5 PPG), but overs are only 11-12-1 in its games this season.

That’s because the Tide are constantly playing games with high projected totals, and they don’t always find a willing dance partner to run up the score.

But that shouldn’t be an issue on Saturday.

Auburn ranks ninth in D-I in scoring (84.8 PPG). The Tigers and Tide are also first and second, respectively, in adjusted offensive efficiency based on calculations at KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com.

Both KenPom and Bart Torvik project today’s matchup to reach 174 points or more.

Alabama is one of just four teams shooting better than 60.0% from inside the arc. And the Tide love to play lightning quick, averaging the second-fastest adjusted tempo in the country.

As for Auburn, Naismith College Player of the Year contender Johni Broome leads a hyper-balanced attack. Six Tigers average 10-plus points per game.

Both defences rank in the top 20 for effective field goal percentage, but I expect the offensive prowess to be overpowering.

Key stat: Since March 2023, Alabama and Auburn have cleared 171.5 points in two of three matchups.

Picks made at 11:55 a.m. ET on 02/15/2025.

NCAA men’s basketball parlay predictions Feb. 15: Bet on No. 11 Michigan State to cover as road underdog

March is fast approaching, but there’s still plenty of notable men’s college basketball action left in the regular season.

The pregame narrative: From Saturday’s jam-packed slate, I’m targeting a trio of games that tip off at 8 p.m. or later. My picks are backing the Texas Longhorns, No. 11 Michigan State Spartans and Utah Utes.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 15.

NCAA basketball predictions

Go to full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Texas ML | Michigan State +6.5 | Utah +10.5 (+375)

Texas ML (-163): Injuries are easy to overlook in college basketball, given that the average fan may not be familiar with most of the players.

In tonight’s matchup between Texas and the No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats, there will be two key absences on Big Blue’s side:

Jaxson Robinson, guard: 13.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.7 APG
Lamont Butler, guard: 12.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.6 APG

This will be the first time all season that both Robinson and Butler are out. Replacing the assists leader and two of the top three scorers is a tough ask — especially on the road.

Texas’ weakness is perimeter defence, but that shouldn’t be as much of a concern without Robinson or Butler, who both shoot better than 38.0% from deep.

Texas (15-10, 4-8 SEC) has dropped four of its past five games. But it’s still a solid squad overall, sitting at No. 35 in KenPom.com’s power rankings.

The meat grinder of SEC hoops hasn’t been kind to the Longhorns. I do expect them to take advantage of the shorthanded Wildcats, though.

SGP legs

Michigan State +6.5 (-110): The Spartans have their flaws, but this feels like too many points to give to a talented bunch that has a 10-3 record in Big Ten play.

Michigan State has covered a +6.5 spread in 17 straight games.

Last month, the Spartans beat the Illinois Fighting Illini, 80-78, when the teams met in East Lansing, Michigan.

The key for Michigan State will be finding its way to the free throw line. The Spartans shoot 81.0% from the line (third-best in NCAA Division I).

In the January matchup, Michigan State had 27 free throws. For context, Illinois yields an average of 17.8 free throws per game.

MSU (14-9-1 ATS) has covered the spread more often than Illinois (12-12-1) and rarely sees a number like this. I’m in.

Utah +9.5 (-182): The No. 17 Kansas Jayhawks are well on their way to another NCAA tournament bid, and Utah is not. But the Utes have what it takes to keep things respectable at home.

Utah is 9-6 ATS at home this season, covering this number in 13 of 15 home games.

The Utes are No. 3 in D-I in average height (79.3 inches), meaning they have the length to contend with the Jayhawks’ interior offence.

A whopping 59.0% of Kansas’ points come from 2-point range, which is the fifth-highest rate in the country.

Oh, and Kansas has been suspect on the road.

The Jayhawks are 3-5 ATS and SU as visitors this season, dropping both games this month. They’re also 1-5 ATS overall since Jan. 25.

Picks made at 10:30 a.m. ET 02/15/2025

NCAA men’s basketball parlay predictions Feb. 15: Bet on No. 11 Michigan State to cover as road underdog

March is fast approaching, but there’s still plenty of notable men’s college basketball action left in the regular season.

The pregame narrative: From Saturday’s jam-packed slate, I’m targeting a trio of games that tip off at 8 p.m. or later. My picks are backing the Texas Longhorns, No. 11 Michigan State Spartans and Utah Utes.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 15.

NCAA basketball predictions

Go to full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Texas ML | Michigan State +6.5 | Utah +10.5 (+382)

Embed: #109545

Texas ML (-152): Injuries are easy to overlook in college basketball, given that the average fan may not be familiar with most of the players.

In tonight’s matchup between Texas and the No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats, there will be two key absences on Big Blue’s side:

Jaxson Robinson, guard: 13.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.7 APG
Lamont Butler, guard: 12.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.6 APG

This will be the first time all season that both Robinson and Butler are out. Replacing the assists leader and two of the top three scorers is a tough ask — especially on the road.

Texas’ weakness is perimeter defence, but that shouldn’t be as much of a concern without Robinson or Butler, who both shoot better than 38.0% from deep.

Texas (15-10, 4-8 SEC) has dropped four of its past five games. But it’s still a solid squad overall, sitting at No. 35 in KenPom.com’s power rankings.

The meat grinder of SEC hoops hasn’t been kind to the Longhorns. I do expect them to take advantage of the shorthanded Wildcats, though.

SGP legs

Michigan State +6.5 (-113): The Spartans have their flaws, but this feels like too many points to give to a talented bunch that has a 10-3 record in Big Ten play.

Michigan State has covered a +6.5 spread in 17 straight games.

Last month, the Spartans beat the Illinois Fighting Illini, 80-78, when the teams met in East Lansing, Michigan.

The key for Michigan State will be finding its way to the free throw line. The Spartans shoot 81.0% from the line (third-best in NCAA Division I).

In the January matchup, Michigan State had 27 free throws. For context, Illinois yields an average of 17.8 free throws per game.

MSU (14-9-1 ATS) has covered the spread more often than Illinois (12-12-1) and rarely sees a number like this. I’m in.

Utah +10.5 (-195): The No. 17 Kansas Jayhawks are well on their way to another NCAA tournament bid, and Utah is not. But the Utes have what it takes to keep things respectable at home.

Utah is 9-6 ATS at home this season, covering this number in 13 of 15 home games.

The Utes are No. 3 in D-I in average height (79.3 inches), meaning they have the length to contend with the Jayhawks’ interior offence.

A whopping 59.0% of Kansas’ points come from 2-point range, which is the fifth-highest rate in the country.

Oh, and Kansas has been suspect on the road.

The Jayhawks are 3-5 ATS and SU as visitors this season, dropping both games this month. They’re also 1-5 ATS overall since Jan. 25.

Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET 02/15/2025

NCAA men’s basketball parlay predictions Feb. 8: Bet on Alabama to slow Arkansas’ roll

Want some action on Saturday night’s college hoops slate? I’ve got a three-leg parlay featuring some noteworthy programs.

The pregame narrative: This +277 wager features alt spreads in favour of the Alabama Crimson Tide, Ole Miss Rebels and San Diego State Aztecs. All three are on the road, but they all are in a solid position to cover these teased lines.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 8.

NCAA basketball predictions

Go to full college basketball betting markets

Parlay: Alabama -2.5 | Ole Miss -3.5 | San Diego State +5.5 (+300)

Alabama -2.5 (-163): Coach John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks looked dead in the water when they started 1-6 in conference play.

But the ocean of talent in the SEC means a team can stack quality wins just as quickly as it stacks frustrating losses. And after a pair of Quad-1 victories (at Kentucky, at Texas), Arkansas is back in NCAA tournament contention.

The Alabama Crimson Tide are a step above the two teams Arkansas has beaten so far this month, though. No. 3 Alabama is 8-1 in SEC action (4-0 on the road), with just one loss since November.

The Tide rank No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, as well as No. 1 in points per game. They also defend the perimeter well, yielding the 10th-lowest 3-point percentage (28.8%).

Arkansas’ two recent wins came with a collective 47.6 3PT%. That’s an efficiency that far exceeds its season average (33.8%, 160th in NCAA Division I), and some regression should be expected.

The Razorbacks are just 7-14-1 ATS this season, per Team Rankings.

SGP legs

Ole Miss -3.5 (-167): Ole Miss is in a bit of a rut right now, but that’s nothing compared to what’s happening in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.

The LSU Tigers (12-10, 1-8 SEC) have been a punching bag for their conference mates, losing six of their past eight games by a double-digit margin.

By comparison, the Rebels’ 2-4 skid in their past six games isn’t so bad.

I like this matchup stylistically for Ole Miss, given how the team takes care of the basketball and forces a boatload of turnovers on the other end.

Ole Miss ranks first in offensive turnover rate (12.7%) and 19th in defensive turnover rate (22.0%).

LSU ranks 317th in offensive turnover rate (19.8%). The Tigers have committed 12+ turnovers in all nine SEC matchups.

LSU is 3-6 ATS so far in conference play.

San Diego State +5.5 (-182): A few weeks ago, San Diego State rolled over the Colorado State Rams, 75-60, on home court.

And now I get to back the Aztecs with points at a reasonable price in the rematch? Sign me up.

KenPom projects a one-point victory for SDSU, and it really comes down to the team’s defence.

Look at where the Aztecs rank in some key defensive metrics:

9th in adjusted efficiency
6th in effective FG%
8th in 2PT%
1st in block rate

Colorado State attempts a lot of 3-pointers, but the results are rarely promising. The Rams are collectively shooting 32.2% from deep (252nd in D-I).

San Diego State is riding a four-game win streak and has two elite wins on its resume (vs. Creighton, vs. Houston).

Picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET 02/08/2025

Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks Feb. 8: Fade Karl-Anthony Towns, Jayson Tatum in New York

I’m fading two of the biggest names in Saturday’s star-studded matchup between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: There will be plenty of star power at Madison Square Garden tonight, both on and off the court. But neither Karl-Anthony Towns nor Jayson Tatum finds himself in a good spot to thrive.

Check out my Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks for Feb. 8.

Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks

Best bet: Towns under 23.5 points (-112)

It’s still a pretty small sample, but Towns has struggled to regain his shooting touch in eight games since suffering a thumb injury.

Pre-injury: 25.4 PPG, 55.0 FG%, 44.9 3PT%

Post-injury: 19.3 PPG, 44.8 FG%, 25.0 3PT%

In a tough matchup against the Celtics, I feel compelled to ride with KAT’s current trend and take the under on his point total.

Towns has been asked about his thumb injury multiple times since returning to action. And multiple times, he’s said, “It is what it is.”

Karl-Anthony Towns is 1-of-9 from three since returning from a thumb injury

After saying "it is what it is" a few times, he's asked directly if the thumb is affecting his shot: "For sure" pic.twitter.com/bpAnN3mRvI
— Knicks Videos (@sny_knicks) January 22, 2025

Without trying to glean too much from a five-word quote, I’ll say it doesn’t offer a flowery outlook on how he’s feeling about the situation.

Clearly he’s content to play (and shoot) through it, but so far the results have left a lot to be desired.

Boston is a stout defensive squad that ranks fifth in defensive rating, fifth in points allowed and fourth in opponent FG%.

The Celtics also allow the second-fewest points to opposing centres (19.9), per Betting Pros. They held KAT to 12 points in the season opener.

Key stat: Towns has gone under 22.5 points in five of eight games since the thumb injury.

Quick pick

Tatum under 7.5 rebounds (-134): Any lingering thumb issues for KAT haven’t affected his ability to grab rebounds. He had 20 last time out and is averaging 13.6 RPG on the season.

As a whole, the Knicks allow the fewest rebounds per game to their opponents (41.1).

Part of that has to do with their below-average pace, but it’s also because they have the sixth-highest rebounding rate in the NBA (51.5%).

All of this serves as the foundation of why I’m fading Tatum.

And on an individual level, Tatum has struggled to clear this line recently.

Though he’s still averaging a team-high 8.7 rebounds this season, Tatum has posted just 6.4 RPG in his past 12 games — cashing this under nine times.

Picks made at 3:55 p.m. ET 02/08/2025.