Jordan Horrobin

I’m fading two of the biggest names in Saturday’s star-studded matchup between the Boston Celtics and New York Knicks.

The pregame narrative: There will be plenty of star power at Madison Square Garden tonight, both on and off the court. But neither Karl-Anthony Towns nor Jayson Tatum finds himself in a good spot to thrive.

Check out my Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks for Feb. 8.

Celtics vs. Knicks prop picks

• Full NBA betting markets
• NBA injury report
• NBA player stats
• NBA standings

Best bet: Towns under 22.5 points (-115)

Embed: #108976

It’s still a pretty small sample, but Towns has struggled to regain his shooting touch in eight games since suffering a thumb injury.

• Pre-injury: 25.4 PPG, 55.0 FG%, 44.9 3PT%

• Post-injury: 19.3 PPG, 44.8 FG%, 25.0 3PT%

In a tough matchup against the Celtics, I feel compelled to ride with KAT’s current trend and take the under on his point total.

Towns has been asked about his thumb injury multiple times since returning to action. And multiple times, he’s said, “It is what it is.”

Without trying to glean too much from a five-word quote, I’ll say it doesn’t offer a flowery outlook on how he’s feeling about the situation.

Clearly he’s content to play (and shoot) through it, but so far the results have left a lot to be desired.

Boston is a stout defensive squad that ranks fifth in defensive rating, fifth in points allowed and fourth in opponent FG%.

The Celtics also allow the second-fewest points to opposing centres (19.9), per Betting Pros. They held KAT to 12 points in the season opener.

Key stat: Towns has gone under 22.5 points in five of eight games since the thumb injury.

Quick pick

Tatum under 7.5 rebounds (-115): Any lingering thumb issues for KAT haven’t affected his ability to grab rebounds. He had 20 last time out and is averaging 13.6 RPG on the season.

As a whole, the Knicks allow the fewest rebounds per game to their opponents (41.1).

Part of that has to do with their below-average pace, but it’s also because they have the sixth-highest rebounding rate in the NBA (51.5%).

All of this serves as the foundation of why I’m fading Tatum.

And on an individual level, Tatum has struggled to clear this line recently.

Though he’s still averaging a team-high 8.7 rebounds this season, Tatum has posted just 6.4 RPG in his past 12 games — cashing this under nine times.

Picks made at 1:05 p.m. ET 02/08/2025.

The Memphis Grizzlies host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday night in a battle between the top two squads in the Western Conference.

The pregame narrative: OKC has a healthy lead for the West’s No. 1 seed, but I think Memphis can bridge the skill gap enough to cover an alt spread tonight. I’m also backing a pair of Canadians, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Zach Edey, to cash some overs on their prop markets.

Check out my Thunder vs. Grizzlies same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 8.

Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions

• Full NBA betting markets
• NBA injury report
• NBA player stats
• NBA standings

Parlay: Grizzlies +5.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Edey 8+ rebounds (+275)

Embed: #108966

Grizzlies +5.5 (-186): The Thunder steamrolled the Grizzlies when these teams last met (Dec. 29), but that game was played in Oklahoma City. Also, Edey and Ja Morant were both out.

I expect a much different result tonight as Memphis plays host at FedExForum.

• The Grizzlies are a league-best 18-8 ATS at home, per Team Rankings, as well as 21-5 SU.

• Memphis has covered a +5.5 spread in 24/26 home games and 44/51 overall games.

Memphis also has the rest advantage, having last played Wednesday in Toronto. OKC just faced the Raptors last night.

Other SGP legs

Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-205): If there’s one guy I’m not worried about on a back-to-back, it’s SGA.

The odds-on MVP favourite had a lighter load than usual last night (12 shots in 29 minutes) as his team authored a wire-to-wire victory over Toronto.

For a guy who averages 34.0 minutes and 21.4 shot attempts, it was almost like working a half-day.

Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA in scoring (32.7 PPG) and has cashed this milestone in 30 of 49 games (61.2%).

In eight back-to-backs this year, he’s averaging 32.1 PPG and has hit the 30-point mark three straight times.

Edey 8+ rebounds (-177): Now that OKC can deploy two 7-footers in its starting lineup (Isaiah Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren), the Thunder’s rough rebounding numbers should improve.

But on a back-to-back in what will be Holmgren’s second game since November (if he plays), I’m not scared off by that towering tandem.

Edey (7-foot-4, 305 pounds) is bigger than both of them, and he’s finally rounding back into form on the glass.

• Over his past seven games, Edey has averaged 22.4 minutes and 10.1 rebounds, cashing this bet five times.

• In the 10 games before that, Edey averaged just 17.8 minutes and 5.7 rebounds.

I believe the Grizzlies were taking it slow with their rookie centre after he sustained a concussion on Dec. 27. He’s ramped up over the past seven games and should grab plenty of boards tonight.

OKC ranks 23rd in rebounding rate (49.1%).

Picks made at 11:50 a.m. on 02/08/25.

For the first time since the seismic trade that caused Anthony Davis and Luka Doncic to trade places, AD will suit up for the Dallas Mavericks on Saturday afternoon.

The pregame narrative: In the first NBA game of the day, all eyes will be on Davis as he looks to steer the Mavericks out of the middle of the Western Conference standings. After missing a week and a half due to injury, Davis looks like a fade candidate to me.

Check out these Anthony Davis props for the Feb. 8 matchup against the Rockets.

Anthony Davis props vs. Rockets

• Full NBA betting markets
• NBA injury report
• NBA player stats
• NBA standings

Best Davis prop bet

Best bet: Under 3.5 assists (-113)

Embed: #108962

Dallas didn’t bring in Davis to be a facilitator. He’s in the Lone Star State for his rim protection and scoring touch.

Keeping that in mind — along with his 3.4 assists-per-game average — this isn’t a line I expect him to clear very often in his new home.

I’m especially bearish on his assist potential today for a couple of reasons:

• The Rockets allow the fewest assists per game in the NBA (22.7).
  
• Davis hasn’t played since Jan. 28 due to an abdominal injury and could be brought along cautiously.

Davis has gone under 3.5 assists in 24 of 42 games this season (57.1%). In his final 10 games as a Laker, he hit the under eight times.

Say what you will about the unbelievable nature of the Doncic-AD trade, but Davis can still hoop at an elite level. He’s just not a prominent passer, and a fade in this spot makes perfect sense.

Key stat: Houston allows the fourth-fewest assists to opposing power forwards, per Betting Pros.

Pick as of 10:00 a.m. ET on 02/08/2025.

In their first post-trade-deadline matchup, the Toronto Raptors hit the road to face the Oklahoma City Thunder.

The pregame narrative: The Raptors were active at the deadline, and they have some key injuries, which means the roster will be a shell of itself on Friday. Look for Immanuel Quickley to do his part as a facilitator and for Isaiah Hartenstein to feast on the glass.

Check out my Raptors vs. Thunder prop picks for Feb. 7.

Raptors vs. Thunder prop picks

• Full NBA betting markets
• NBA injury report
• NBA player stats
• NBA standings

Best bet: Hartenstein over 10.5 rebounds (-125)

Embed: #108881

Without Jakob Poeltl in Toronto’s lineup, Hartenstein should have his way as a rebounder tonight.

Poeltl, who’s out with a hip injury, is an adept rim protector with enough size (seven feet, 245 pounds) to push other bigs around.

On Wednesday, Memphis Grizzlies centre Zach Edey went to work against the Poeltl-less Raptors. He finished with 15 rebounds in just 25 minutes.

The only time Toronto came close to slowing down Edey was with Kelly Olynyk on the floor. But Olynyk was dealt to the New Orleans Pelicans just hours after that game.

Orlando Robinson, come on down. The undrafted centre is on his third team in three seasons, and he just might get the start for Toronto on Friday due to process of elimination.

Let’s get back to Hartenstein for a second. The primary risk for him is the reinsertion of Chet Holmgren into the lineup, but Holmgren hasn’t played since Nov. 10 and will likely be on a minutes restriction.

Hartenstein is averaging 12.2 rebounds. And now he’s facing a squad that doesn’t have a healthy NBA-calibre centre.

Facing a Poeltl-less Raptors squad in December, Hartenstein grabbed 16 rebounds in 28 minutes.

Key stat: Hartenstein has gone over 10.5 rebounds in seven of his past nine games.

Quick pick

Quickley over 4.5 assists (+100): OKC is arguably the best defensive team in the NBA, so this isn’t a good matchup for many overs on the Toronto side. But I’m intrigued by this assist number for Quickley.

Injuries have plagued Quickley this season, but he’s not on the injury report for Friday. That means the starting point guard spot is his.

And as a starting PG, isn’t a five-assist performance awfully reasonable? After all, he’s averaging 5.7 assists in 12 games this year.

Quickley has cashed this bet in six of nine games since Jan. 1. I’m hoping Scottie Barnes assumes more of a scoring role tonight and allows IQ to do his thing as a facilitator.

Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 02/07/2025.

The spiralling Atlanta Hawks host the Milwaukee Bucks on Friday night in their first matchup coming out of the trade deadline.

The pregame narrative: Atlanta is 1-9 in its past 10 games and became a modest seller at the deadline. With some moving pieces on both sides, I kept this SGP simple by backing Trae Young and Giannis Antetokounmpo in a +270 ticket.

Check out my Bucks vs. Hawks same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 7.

Bucks vs. Hawks predictions

• Full NBA betting markets
• NBA injury report
• NBA player stats
• NBA standings

Parlay: Under 247.5 points | Young 25+ points | Giannis 45+ points/rebounds/assists (+270)

Embed: #108856

Under 247.5 points (-177): Atlanta has the NBA’s highest overs rate at home (16-7-0, 69.6%), per Team Rankings. But for a number this high, I still prefer the under.

• This under is 8-2 in Atlanta’s past 10 home games.

• The Bucks and Hawks combined for 223 and 212 points, respectively, in their two previous matchups this season (both in Milwaukee).

It just so happens that Milwaukee went over this total twice last week, but that looks like a total fluke. The Bucks have finished under 248.5 points in 46 of 49 games on the year.

Both teams were active at the trade deadline with multiple moves. If anything, I think the potential chemistry disruption of reshuffled rosters will have a greater effect on offence than defence.

SGP legs

Young 25+ points (-180): Even with an alt under in place, I love this number (and this matchup) for Young.

• Milwaukee allows the most PPG to opposing point guards (26.8), per Betting Pros.

• Young is averaging 25.5 PPG over his past 20 games.

Young is off to a scorching start in February, notching three straight games of 30-plus points.

And when he last faced the Bucks on Dec. 14, Young dropped 35 while shooting 50.0% from the floor.

Giannis 45+ PRA (-360): The only thing stopping Giannis right now is some calf tightness. But when he’s on the floor, he’s bound to put up big numbers.

The Greek Freak is questionable tonight after missing back-to-back games. Prior to that, he was on a mesmerizing heater:

• 30+ points in 7/8 games
• 11+ rebounds in 19 straight games
• 45+ PRA in 10/13 games

Atlanta allows the seventh-most points to opposing power forwards, but Giannis’ sky-high floor as a rebounder is something I want to tap into as well.

With this alt PRA line, you can back Giannis at a number he’s cleared in both matchups against the Hawks this season.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET 02/07/2025