The Memphis Grizzlies host the Oklahoma City Thunder on Saturday night in a battle between the top two squads in the Western Conference.
The pregame narrative: OKC has a healthy lead for the West’s No. 1 seed, but I think Memphis can bridge the skill gap enough to cover an alt spread tonight. I’m also backing a pair of Canadians, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Zach Edey, to cash some overs on their prop markets.
Check out my Thunder vs. Grizzlies same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 8.
Thunder vs. Grizzlies predictions
Parlay: Grizzlies +5.5 | Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points | Edey 8+ rebounds (+275)
Grizzlies +5.5 (-186): The Thunder steamrolled the Grizzlies when these teams last met (Dec. 29), but that game was played in Oklahoma City. Also, Edey and Ja Morant were both out.
I expect a much different result tonight as Memphis plays host at FedExForum.
- The Grizzlies are a league-best 18-8 ATS at home, per Team Rankings, as well as 21-5 SU.
- Memphis has covered a +5.5 spread in 24/26 home games and 44/51 overall games.
Memphis also has the rest advantage, having last played Wednesday in Toronto. OKC just faced the Raptors last night.
Other SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-205): If there’s one guy I’m not worried about on a back-to-back, it’s SGA.
The odds-on MVP favourite had a lighter load than usual last night (12 shots in 29 minutes) as his team authored a wire-to-wire victory over Toronto.
For a guy who averages 34.0 minutes and 21.4 shot attempts, it was almost like working a half-day.
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the NBA in scoring (32.7 PPG) and has cashed this milestone in 30 of 49 games (61.2%).
In eight back-to-backs this year, he’s averaging 32.1 PPG and has hit the 30-point mark three straight times.
Edey 8+ rebounds (-177): Now that OKC can deploy two 7-footers in its starting lineup (Isaiah Hartenstein, Chet Holmgren), the Thunder’s rough rebounding numbers should improve.
But on a back-to-back in what will be Holmgren’s second game since November (if he plays), I’m not scared off by that towering tandem.
Edey (7-foot-4, 305 pounds) is bigger than both of them, and he’s finally rounding back into form on the glass.
- Over his past seven games, Edey has averaged 22.4 minutes and 10.1 rebounds, cashing this bet five times.
- In the 10 games before that, Edey averaged just 17.8 minutes and 5.7 rebounds.
I believe the Grizzlies were taking it slow with their rookie centre after he sustained a concussion on Dec. 27. He’s ramped up over the past seven games and should grab plenty of boards tonight.
OKC ranks 23rd in rebounding rate (49.1%).
Picks made at 11:50 a.m. on 02/08/25.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.