March is fast approaching, but there’s still plenty of notable men’s college basketball action left in the regular season.
The pregame narrative: From Saturday’s jam-packed slate, I’m targeting a trio of games that tip off at 8 p.m. or later. My picks are backing the Texas Longhorns, No. 11 Michigan State Spartans and Utah Utes.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 15.
NCAA basketball predictions
Parlay: Texas ML | Michigan State +6.5 | Utah +10.5 (+382)
Texas ML (-152): Injuries are easy to overlook in college basketball, given that the average fan may not be familiar with most of the players.
In tonight’s matchup between Texas and the No. 15 Kentucky Wildcats, there will be two key absences on Big Blue’s side:
- Jaxson Robinson, guard: 13.3 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 1.7 APG
- Lamont Butler, guard: 12.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG, 4.6 APG
This will be the first time all season that both Robinson and Butler are out. Replacing the assists leader and two of the top three scorers is a tough ask — especially on the road.
Texas’ weakness is perimeter defence, but that shouldn’t be as much of a concern without Robinson or Butler, who both shoot better than 38.0% from deep.
Texas (15-10, 4-8 SEC) has dropped four of its past five games. But it’s still a solid squad overall, sitting at No. 35 in KenPom.com’s power rankings.
The meat grinder of SEC hoops hasn’t been kind to the Longhorns. I do expect them to take advantage of the shorthanded Wildcats, though.
SGP legs
Michigan State +6.5 (-113): The Spartans have their flaws, but this feels like too many points to give to a talented bunch that has a 10-3 record in Big Ten play.
- Michigan State has covered a +6.5 spread in 17 straight games.
- Last month, the Spartans beat the Illinois Fighting Illini, 80-78, when the teams met in East Lansing, Michigan.
The key for Michigan State will be finding its way to the free throw line. The Spartans shoot 81.0% from the line (third-best in NCAA Division I).
In the January matchup, Michigan State had 27 free throws. For context, Illinois yields an average of 17.8 free throws per game.
MSU (14-9-1 ATS) has covered the spread more often than Illinois (12-12-1) and rarely sees a number like this. I’m in.
Utah +10.5 (-195): The No. 17 Kansas Jayhawks are well on their way to another NCAA tournament bid, and Utah is not. But the Utes have what it takes to keep things respectable at home.
- Utah is 9-6 ATS at home this season, covering this number in 13 of 15 home games.
- The Utes are No. 3 in D-I in average height (79.3 inches), meaning they have the length to contend with the Jayhawks’ interior offence.
A whopping 59.0% of Kansas’ points come from 2-point range, which is the fifth-highest rate in the country.
Oh, and Kansas has been suspect on the road.
The Jayhawks are 3-5 ATS and SU as visitors this season, dropping both games this month. They’re also 1-5 ATS overall since Jan. 25.
Picks made at 9:50 a.m. ET 02/15/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.