Want some action on Saturday night’s college hoops slate? I’ve got a three-leg parlay featuring some noteworthy programs.
The pregame narrative: This +277 wager features alt spreads in favour of the Alabama Crimson Tide, Ole Miss Rebels and San Diego State Aztecs. All three are on the road, but they all are in a solid position to cover these teased lines.
Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 8.
NCAA basketball predictions
Parlay: Alabama -2.5 | Ole Miss -3.5 | San Diego State +5.5 (+300)
Alabama -2.5 (-163): Coach John Calipari’s Arkansas Razorbacks looked dead in the water when they started 1-6 in conference play.
But the ocean of talent in the SEC means a team can stack quality wins just as quickly as it stacks frustrating losses. And after a pair of Quad-1 victories (at Kentucky, at Texas), Arkansas is back in NCAA tournament contention.
The Alabama Crimson Tide are a step above the two teams Arkansas has beaten so far this month, though. No. 3 Alabama is 8-1 in SEC action (4-0 on the road), with just one loss since November.
The Tide rank No. 3 in adjusted offensive efficiency, per KenPom.com, as well as No. 1 in points per game. They also defend the perimeter well, yielding the 10th-lowest 3-point percentage (28.8%).
Arkansas’ two recent wins came with a collective 47.6 3PT%. That’s an efficiency that far exceeds its season average (33.8%, 160th in NCAA Division I), and some regression should be expected.
The Razorbacks are just 7-14-1 ATS this season, per Team Rankings.
SGP legs
Ole Miss -3.5 (-167): Ole Miss is in a bit of a rut right now, but that’s nothing compared to what’s happening in Baton Rouge, Louisiana.
The LSU Tigers (12-10, 1-8 SEC) have been a punching bag for their conference mates, losing six of their past eight games by a double-digit margin.
By comparison, the Rebels’ 2-4 skid in their past six games isn’t so bad.
I like this matchup stylistically for Ole Miss, given how the team takes care of the basketball and forces a boatload of turnovers on the other end.
- Ole Miss ranks first in offensive turnover rate (12.7%) and 19th in defensive turnover rate (22.0%).
- LSU ranks 317th in offensive turnover rate (19.8%). The Tigers have committed 12+ turnovers in all nine SEC matchups.
LSU is 3-6 ATS so far in conference play.
San Diego State +5.5 (-182): A few weeks ago, San Diego State rolled over the Colorado State Rams, 75-60, on home court.
And now I get to back the Aztecs with points at a reasonable price in the rematch? Sign me up.
KenPom projects a one-point victory for SDSU, and it really comes down to the team’s defence.
Look at where the Aztecs rank in some key defensive metrics:
- 9th in adjusted efficiency
- 6th in effective FG%
- 8th in 2PT%
- 1st in block rate
Colorado State attempts a lot of 3-pointers, but the results are rarely promising. The Rams are collectively shooting 32.2% from deep (252nd in D-I).
San Diego State is riding a four-game win streak and has two elite wins on its resume (vs. Creighton, vs. Houston).
Picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET 02/08/2025
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.