Jordan Horrobin

The Big Ten, Big 12 and SEC are all accounted for in Tuesday’s college basketball best bets.

The pregame narrative: Zeke Mayo is the best shooter the Kansas Jayhawks have, and I expect him to be unleashed tonight. I’m also betting the under on the game total between the Illinois Fighting Illini and the No. 11 Wisconsin Badgers.

Check out my college basketball best bets for Feb. 18.

College basketball best bets

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Best Bet: Illinois/Wisconsin under 160.5 points (-112)

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When No. 16 Wisconsin travelled to Illinois in December, the teams hit the over in an 86-80 victory for the Illini.

But given how the Badgers have been battening down the hatches at home lately, I don’t anticipate that happening again.

• Unders are 7-1 in Wisconsin’s past eight home games.

• Unders are 4-1 in Illinois’ past five road games.

Both teams rank in the bottom 60 defensively in terms of turnover rate, so there shouldn’t be many fast-break points. The Badgers and Illini also both rank in the top 70 in effective field goal percentage allowed.

Illinois plays at the 17th-quickest pace in NCAA Division I, but I expect Wisconsin to do its best to dictate the tempo in front of what will be a raucous Kohl Center crowd in Madison.

Key stat: In Wisconsin’s past four home games, the average total was 138.8 points.

Quick picks

Josh Hubbard 25+ points/rebounds/assists (-137): Hubbard is playing his best basketball of the season right now, and I think he’ll have a nice opportunity to keep rolling in a game with track meet potential.

Both the No. 7 Texas A&M Aggies and the No. 21 Mississippi State Bulldogs play at a top-150 offensive pace, which bodes well for scoring.

Hubbard, a native Mississippian, has cashed this bet in five straight games.

The Mississippi State sophomore is often inefficient as a scorer, but his shot volume is tantalizing. Over his past 10 games, Hubbard has averaged 15.6 field goal attempts, including 10.0 beyond the arc.

Given that he also has eight-plus rebounds/assists in three straight games, Hubbard profiles as a bonafide stat-stuffer.

Zeke Mayo 3+ threes (-104): My first thought was to back Mayo to score 15-plus points (-165), but that prop comes with more juice than I’d like. This pick has more risk, but the matchup works in his favour.

Mayo and No. 17 Kansas face the BYU Cougars on Tuesday night. BYU’s defence has struggled to defend the perimeter this season:

• 34.8 opponent 3PT%
• 8.7 opponent 3s per game

BYU allows the 46th-most 3s per game to its opponents. And given how many 3s the Cougars shoot themselves (10.4/game), Mayo will likely be called up to help Kansas keep up.

The South Dakota State transfer is shooting 40.5% beyond the arc this season, averaging 2.5 makes per game.

Over his past 12 games, Mayo has cashed this bet seven times on 45.0% 3-point shooting.

Picks made at 2:40 p.m. ET 02/18/2025

The Michigan State Spartans host the Purdue Boilermakers in a compelling, top-15 clash on Tuesday night.

The pregame narrative: No. 14 Michigan State is favoured to win, but I’ll take the points with No. 13 Purdue. I also expect the Boilermakers to stay hot offensively and clear their projected total.

Check out my Purdue vs. Michigan State picks for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 18.

Purdue vs. Michigan State picks

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Best Bet: Purdue +4.5 (-127)

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You could argue that Purdue is at the low point of its season, which is really saying something about how well the season has gone.

The Boilermakers just lost by 10 at home against No. 11 Wisconsin, marking the second time this season they’ve lost back-to-back games.

As underdogs tonight in East Lansing, Michigan, the Boilermakers are expected to lose again. And maybe they will, but I see value in banking +4.5 points with the visitors.

• Purdue is 6-2 ATS on the road this season.

• Prior to Saturday’s loss against Wisconsin, Purdue had covered a +4.5 spread in 13 consecutive games.

• Michigan State is 2-3 outright in its past five games.

The Spartans are a dreadful 3-point shooting team (29.1%), ranking 353rd out of 364 NCAA Division I schools. But they shoot free throws exceptionally well, with the fourth-highest FT% in the country (80.6%).

Those traits should play right into Purdue’s hands.

The Boilermakers funnel their opponents outside the arc, allowing 43.3% of all shot attempts to come from 3-point range (52nd-most in D-I). Also, Purdue yields just 16.7 free throw attempts to its opponents (73rd).

Key stat: Since Jan. 1, Purdue is 10-3 ATS (all of those games were in conference play).

Quick picks

Purdue over 72.5 points (-118): Michigan State is a strong defensive team, especially beyond the arc. But few teams have tested the Spartans like Purdue can.

The Boilermakers have three players shooting better than 38.0% from deep on 2.5 attempts or more.

Don’t get the wrong impression about Purdue, though. This isn’t a team that’ll just chuck a bunch of 3s and hope for the best. The Boilermakers rank inside the top 30 in the country in both 3PT% and 2PT%.

Michigan State’s average offensive possession is 16.9 seconds, per KenPom.com, which is 96th-fastest in D-I. If the Spartans push the pace a bit, that’ll give the Boilermakers more scoring opportunities of their own.

Purdue has cashed this bet in six consecutive games.

Fletcher Loyer 2+ threes (-132): Loyer’s 3-point stroke is among the most efficient in the country. I wish he’d shoot more, but a pair of made 3s isn’t too much of an ask.

Shooting at a 45.3% clip from outside, Loyer is 47th in D-I in 3-point percentage. He’s cashed this bet in four straight games, as well as nine of his past 14.

Michigan State’s opponents have really struggled to score from outside (28.9 3PT%, eighth in D-I), but the chances are there.

The Spartans allow 24.0 attempted 3s per game. If Loyer accounts for five or six of them, I love his chances of cashing this prop.

Picks made at 12:35 p.m. ET on 02/18/2025.

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A trio of college basketball games in the 9 p.m. ET window have my attention for a +327 parlay.

The pregame narrative: The No. 5 Houston Cougars play at a snail’s pace, and I expect that to affect the free-wheeling ways of the Arizona State Sun Devils. I’m counting on an alt under in that game, and I’m taking the under in a matchup between the No. 17 Kansas Jayhawks and the BYU Cougars.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 18.

NCAA basketball predictions

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Parlay: Houston/Arizona St. u138.5 pts | Kansas/BYU u151.5 points | Colorado St. ML (+327)

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Houston/Arizona State under 138.5 points (-157): Even after teasing it up, this is the third-lowest total the Sun Devils have faced all season. But given the Cougars’ style of play, this under makes perfect sense to me.

Houston plays at the fifth-slowest adjusted tempo in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.

Arizona State has cashed five consecutive overs, but other slow-paced Big 12 schools have bogged down the Sun Devils in the past.

Aside from Houston, the three slowest-paced teams in the conference are West Virginia, Baylor and Cincinnati. Unders went 3-0 when Arizona State faced those schools (and all three games finished below 138.5 points).

Seven of Houston’s past 10 games have gone under this number.

Other parlay picks

Kansas/BYU under 151.5 points (-150): Kansas tends to drag down scoring against everyone it faces, and I view BYU as the next victim.

Unders are 19-6 (76.0%) in Jayhawks games this year, cashing at the highest rate in D-I, per Team Rankings.

That includes a 7-2 unders record on the road.

A whopping 48.0% of BYU’s field goal attempts come beyond the arc, which is the 17th-highest rate in the country. Given that Kansas’ defence allows the ninth-lowest 3PT% (29.2), that might not be a winning strategy for the Cougars.

This under has cashed in three straight BYU games, as well as three of Kansas’ past four.

Colorado State moneyline (-180): The Colorado State Rams snuck past the Nevada Wolfpack, 82-80, when the teams played in Nevada back in December.

Now the Rams have home-court advantage, which heightens their chances to win again.

• Colorado State is 11-2 at home. One of those losses came against New Mexico (the Mountain West leader), while the other was an overtime defeat in November against UC Riverside.

• Nevada is 3-5 on the road, including 0-3 as a road underdog.

BartTorvik.com projects a 75% win probability for the Rams, which is well ahead of the implied probability of this line (64.3%).

One of Nevada’s weaknesses is that its opponents tend to get to the free throw line with ease. The Wolfpack allow 19.5 free throw attempts per game (217th in D-I).

The Rams are among the best free-throw-shooting teams in the country (78.0%, 19th), so I expect them to capitalize.

Picks made at 10:00 a.m. ET 02/18/2025

Monday’s best college basketball game is saved for last, as the Baylor Bears host the No. 13 Arizona Wildcats for a 10 p.m. ET tip-off.

The pregame narrative: Jaden Bradley showed up in a big way when the Wildcats last faced the Bears, and I’m riding with the guard to perform well again tonight. My +325 SGP also includes an alt spread and a prop bet on Baylor’s V.J. Edgecombe.

Check out my Arizona vs. Baylor predictions for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 17.

Arizona vs. Baylor predictions

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Parlay: Arizona +5.5 | Bradley 4+ assists | Edgecombe 15+ points (+325)

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Arizona +5.5 (-215): I don’t mind taking a flier on the Wildcats to win straight up as underdogs, but for some added cushion, I’m rolling with this alt spread.

Dating back to Dec. 7, Arizona has covered a +5.5 spread in 17 of 18 games.

Of course, that includes the Wildcats’ 81-70 win over the Bears in Arizona on Jan. 14. Arizona took the lead less than three minutes into that game and never relinquished it.

Baylor (16-9, 8-6 Big 12) is three games behind Arizona in the conference standings. The Bears have failed to cover this number in six of their past 10 games.

SGP legs

Bradley 4+ assists (-159): Bradley averages 3.8 assists, so this might seem like an undesirable price to back him at this milestone. But tonight’s matchup is a good one for the junior guard.

Baylor allows an assist on 60.7% of opponent field goals. That’s the 20th-highest rate in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.

When these teams matched up last month, Bradley had six assists in 38 minutes.

He’s also cashed this bet in six of his past eight games, as well as 14 of 25 overall (56.0%).

Edgecombe 15+ points (-130): Edgecombe finished with 14 points when he last faced Arizona, but his overall body of work in recent games makes this point total perfectly attainable.

• In 11 games since Jan. 7, the freshman guard has averaged 17.8 points while shooting 44.2% from 3-point range.

• He has 15+ points in 7/11 games in that span while finishing with exactly 14 points three other times.

Edgecombe’s 14-point effort vs. Arizona was only the third time this season (in 23 games) that he didn’t attempt a free throw. That’s an anomaly that will hopefully sort itself out on Monday.

Touted as the No. 5 recruit in the 2024 class, per 247 Sports, it shouldn’t surprise anyone that Edgecombe is getting into a groove in the back end of his first collegiate season.

Picks made at 12:55 p.m. ET 02/16/2025

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Cooper Flagg and the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils hit the road on Monday to face the Virginia Cavaliers.

The pregame narrative: In what should be a lopsided ACC matchup, I like the over to cash in Charlottesville. I’ve also made prop bet predictions on Flagg and UVA’s Isaac McKneely.

Check out my Duke vs. Virginia picks for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 17.

Duke vs. Virginia picks

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Best Bet: Over 132.5 points (-117)

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Betting the over in a Virginia game? It doesn’t feel right, but it’s where I’m landing with my best bet.

For years, the Tony Bennett-led Cavaliers played at a methodical, molasses-like pace and generated some of the lowest scores in NCAA Division I.

Bennett is now retired, but his successor, Ron Sanchez, has taken up the same mantle. Virginia plays at the third-slowest adjusted tempo in D-I, per KenPom.com.

Unsurprisingly, this is the lowest projected total in a Duke game this year. And I think there are some compelling reasons to side with the over:

• Five ACC schools, including Virginia, are among the 60 slowest in adjusted tempo. Duke has already faced the other four and hit the over each time.

• The Blue Devils have gone over 132.5 points in 19/25 games.

• The Cavaliers have gone over 132.5 points in 8/11 games since Jan. 8.

One key driver for offence will be Virginia’s ability to hit 3s. Duke has the No. 1 defence against 2-point shots (42.4 FG% allowed), so the interior will likely be a no-fly zone.

The Cavaliers are on fire beyond the arc right now, shooting 41.9% from deep in their past eight games.

Key stat: Overs are 4-0 in Virginia’s past four home games. The average total in those games was 137.0 points.

Quick picks

Flagg 30+ points/rebounds/assists (-132): This line is lower than usual for Flagg, which makes sense because of the risk that Virginia turns the game into a slog.

But I like the over on the game total, and I expect Flagg to play a major role.

The Naismith College Player of the Year frontrunner averages 19.8 points, 7.5 rebounds and 4.0 assists (31.3 PRA). He’s cashed this bet in 10 of his past 13 games.

Flagg is a three-level scorer with a nose for the free-throw line. But I also expect some solid work on the glass.

Virginia ranks 338th in offensive rebounding rate (23.9%), which should mean plenty of chances for Flagg when the Cavs come up short on shot attempts.

McKneely 3+ threes (+110): I really like this price for the top 3-point shooter in the ACC.

McKneely paces the conference with a 41.7% shooting clip beyond the arc. He’s averaging 3.1 makes on 7.5 attempts.

Oh, and he happens to be on fire from deep right now. Look at his past seven games:

• 43.5 3PT%
• 9.9 attempted threes
• 3+ threes in 5/7 games

Picks made at 10:35 a.m. ET on 02/17/2025.