Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions Feb. 22: Bet on No. 15 Missouri, No. 19 Arizona to win

Saturday’s college basketball action rolls from noon through late at night, and I’m targeting three games tipping off at 8 p.m. or beyond.

The pregame narrative: The No. 15 Missouri Tigers and No. 19 Arizona Wildcats are both solid picks to knock off teams they’ve already beaten this season. Elsewhere, I expect the Saint Mary’s Gaels to cover a fairly generous spread.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 22.

NCAA basketball predictions

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Parlay: Saint Mary’s +6.5 | Missouri ML | Arizona ML (+348)

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Saint Mary’s +6.5 (-108): The Gonzaga Bulldogs have been the class of the West Coast Conference for quite some time, but Saint Mary’s is typically right there nipping at the Zags’ heels.

The Gaels are more than just pests for the Zags; they’re legitimate competition. Saint Mary’s is 3-1 SU against Gonzaga since February 2024, winning each of those games as an underdog.

That includes a 62-58 victory on Feb. 1 of this year, despite the fact that the Gaels shot just 11-of-22 from the free throw line. Saint Mary’s went +6 in the rebounding department and held Gonzaga to a 17.6% shooting clip beyond the arc.

Another upset win is possible, but I’m also content banking this many points with the road team.

Saint Mary’s has covered this number in 27 of 28 games (the exception was a seven-point loss vs. Utah State in December). Gonzaga is just 5-9 ATS as a home favourite.

Other parlay picks

Missouri moneyline (-132): Last month, Missouri earned an 18-point win over the Arkansas Razorbacks thanks to some efficient 3-point shooting and a massive advantage at the free throw line.

The Tigers had 19 free throw attempts — compared to just eight for Arkansas — and shot 11-of-23 (47.8%) from beyond the arc.

That type of 3-point shooting likely won’t be repeated, but Mizzou has proven it knows how to get to the line. The Tigers average 20.1 free throw attempts, which is the most in NCAA Division I.

Missouri is 9-4 in the SEC, with four wins over currently ranked teams (Florida, Alabama, Mississippi, Mississippi State). Arkansas has floundered in conference play, going 4-9 and losing to all of the top teams.

As an NCAA tournament bubble team, Arkansas will play hungry at home. But Missouri is the better squad and should come out with a win.

Arizona moneyline (-315): Arizona is 11-2 at home this year, and both of those losses came against top-five teams (Duke, Houston).

The BYU Cougars are pretty good, but they’re not that good.

In fact, Arizona downed BYU earlier this month, 85-74, as the road team. So I have plenty of confidence in the Wildcats to sweep the season series tonight in Tucson.

BYU is 3-5 on the road this season, with losses to Cincinnati and TCU (teams that Arizona has already beaten).

Arizona is 14-3 since Dec. 18, stacking wins over Baylor (twice), Iowa State and Texas Tech in that span.

Picks made at 9:15 a.m. ET 02/22/2025

Michigan State vs. Michigan college basketball picks Feb. 21: Take the No. 12 Wolverines to cover at home

The No. 12 Michigan Wolverines took care of one bitter rival last time out, and now they’ve got another one due up on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Michigan hosts the No. 14 Michigan State Spartans in their first head-to-head matchup as top-15 teams since 2020. I’m backing the Wolverines to cover at Crisler Center and go over their projected point total.

Check out my Michigan State vs. Michigan picks for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 21.

Michigan State vs. Michigan picks

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Best Bet: Michigan -2.5 (-134)

In his first season as the head coach at Michigan, Dusty May has done a remarkable job ingratiating himself with Wolverines fans.

Not only are the Wolverines on an NCAA tournament trajectory after missing out the past two seasons, but they’ve yet to lose under May at home (12-0).

Overall, the Wolverines are 11-2 since Christmas. They should have the upper hand on the visiting Spartans tonight.

Michigan State’s offence relies on interior shooting and free throws. Neither of those scoring avenues will come easy against Michigan.

The Wolverines are massive up front, with Danny Wolf (7 feet) and Vladislav Goldin (7-foot-1) in the starting lineup.

Michigan is the fifth-tallest team overall in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com. The Wolverines’ opponents are shooting just 46.8% from 2-point range (34th-lowest in D-I).

The Wolverines allow just a 28.3% free throw rate, calculated as free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts. That’s the 65th-lowest rate in D-I.

On the flip side, Michigan’s primary offensive weakness — turning over the ball — shouldn’t be too much of a worry against Michigan State.

The Wolverines have the 34th-highest offensive turnover rate in the country, but the Spartans have the 55th-lowest defensive steals rate.

Michigan State is having a great season in its own right and won both of last year’s matchups. But Michigan is a much different team now, thanks to May and some of the players he brought in, and I expect the Wolverines’ home record to remain pristine.

Key stat: Michigan has covered a -2.5 spread in 10 of 12 home games. The Wolverines won by exactly two points in the outliers.

Quick pick

Michigan over 76.5 points (-120): The Wolverines average 81.6 points and are well-positioned to fill the net on Friday.

As stated, the Spartans struggle to force turnovers on defence, which should lead to fewer empty possessions for the Wolverines.

Also, both teams play fast. Michigan’s average possession length (15.6 seconds) is the 20th-fastest in D-I. Michigan State ranks 106th in that regard.

Michigan tends to shoot a lot of 3-pointers, which likely won’t be a winning strategy against a Michigan State squad that holds opponents to a 29.2 3PT% (10th in D-I).

With that said, the Wolverines’ top scorers are their towering big men, Wolf and Goldin. I’m hoping Michigan will lean on them and exploit size mismatches down low.

Picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET on 02/21/2025.

Michigan State vs. Michigan college basketball picks Feb. 21: Take the No. 12 Wolverines to cover at home

The No. 12 Michigan Wolverines took care of one bitter rival last time out, and now they’ve got another one due up on Friday night.

The pregame narrative: Michigan hosts the No. 14 Michigan State Spartans in their first head-to-head matchup as top-15 teams since 2020. I’m backing the Wolverines to cover at Crisler Center and go over their projected point total.

Check out my Michigan State vs. Michigan picks for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 21.

Michigan State vs. Michigan picks

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Best Bet: Michigan -2.5 (-121)

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In his first season as the head coach at Michigan, Dusty May has done a remarkable job ingratiating himself with Wolverines fans.

Not only are the Wolverines on an NCAA tournament trajectory after missing out the past two seasons, but they’ve yet to lose under May at home (12-0).

Overall, the Wolverines are 11-2 since Christmas. They should have the upper hand on the visiting Spartans tonight.

Michigan State’s offence relies on interior shooting and free throws. Neither of those scoring avenues will come easy against Michigan.

The Wolverines are massive up front, with Danny Wolf (7 feet) and Vladislav Goldin (7-foot-1) in the starting lineup.

Michigan is the fifth-tallest team overall in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com. The Wolverines’ opponents are shooting just 46.8% from 2-point range (34th-lowest in D-I).

The Wolverines allow just a 28.3% free throw rate, calculated as free throw attempts divided by field goal attempts. That’s the 65th-lowest rate in D-I.

On the flip side, Michigan’s primary offensive weakness — turning over the ball — shouldn’t be too much of a worry against Michigan State.

The Wolverines have the 34th-highest offensive turnover rate in the country, but the Spartans have the 55th-lowest defensive steals rate.

Michigan State is having a great season in its own right and won both of last year’s matchups. But Michigan is a much different team now, thanks to May and some of the players he brought in, and I expect the Wolverines’ home record to remain pristine.

Key stat: Michigan has covered a -2.5 spread in 10 of 12 home games. The Wolverines won by exactly two points in the outliers.

Quick pick

Michigan over 76.5 points (-115): The Wolverines average 81.6 points and are well-positioned to fill the net on Friday.

As stated, the Spartans struggle to force turnovers on defence, which should lead to fewer empty possessions for the Wolverines.

Also, both teams play fast. Michigan’s average possession length (15.6 seconds) is the 20th-fastest in D-I. Michigan State ranks 106th in that regard.

Michigan tends to shoot a lot of 3-pointers, which likely won’t be a winning strategy against a Michigan State squad that holds opponents to a 29.2 3PT% (10th in D-I).

With that said, the Wolverines’ top scorers are their towering big men, Wolf and Goldin. I’m hoping Michigan will lean on them and exploit size mismatches down low.

Picks made at 2:50 p.m. ET on 02/21/2025.

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Warriors vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions Feb. 21: Jimmy Butler, Golden State should come out on top

In Friday’s NBA nightcap, the Sacramento Kings host the Golden State Warriors in a Bay Area battle.

The pregame narrative: After a pair of head-to-head wins for Sacramento last month, I expect Golden State to exact some revenge tonight. This is a star-studded SGP, featuring Steph Curry, Jimmy Butler and Domantas Sabonis.

Check out my Warriors vs. Kings same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 21.

Warriors vs. Kings predictions

Parlay: Warriors ML | Butler 30+ PRA | Sabonis 35+ PRA | Curry 4+ threes (+410)

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Warriors moneyline (-125): Golden State and Sacramento have identical 28-27 records right now. But the vibes aren’t the same, and neither are the teams’ directions.

The Warriors added Jimmy Butler at the trade deadline, and then Draymond Green called his shot during all-star weekend and said they’re going to win the championship.

The Kings traded away De’Aaron Fox at the deadline and now have -455 odds to miss the playoffs.

Sacramento is 2-0 against Golden State this year, and both games took place just last month. But a lot has changed since then.

In their past 10 games, respectively, the Warriors’ net rating (+2.3) far exceeds the Kings’ net rating (-5.3).

SGP legs

Butler 30+ points/rebounds/assists (-225): We’re seeing a motivated Butler right now, and that’s a dangerous thing for whichever team is on the opposing side.

After multiple suspensions and plenty of trade-related awkwardness with the Miami Heat, Butler has found a home with the Warriors. That marriage is still in the honeymoon phase, but so far it’s working out:

4 games
21.3 PPG
7.0 RPG
5.3 APG
30+ PRA in 4/4

Butler’s shooting efficiency has actually been rough since he joined Golden State, but that’s been offset by his ability to get to the free throw line.

If he needs to lean on that crutch again, the Kings profile as a solid team to exploit. They allow the 11th-most free throw attempts per game (22.7).

Butler already has 40 FTA so far as a Warrior.

Sabonis 35+ points/rebounds/assists (-245): Sabonis’ high floor as a scorer and nuclear capability as a rebounder means this milestone is always within reach.

Over his past 20 games, Sabonis has averaged 42.7 PRA and cashed this bet 17 times.

That includes a pair of matchups against the Warriors, who he’s now hit this milestone against in four consecutive games.

Sabonis is poised for a third consecutive rebounding title, and he matched a season-best with 28 boards last time out.

He’s also Sacramento’s leading passer (6.2 APG) and averages north of 20 points per night.

Curry 4+ threes (-295): Am I loving this amount of juice on Curry to can four 3s? No, but based on his 3-point volume heading into the all-star break I’m willing to get on board.

Look at what Curry did from beyond the arc in his final seven games before the break:

5.3 3PM
15.4 3PA
12+ attempted 3s in 7/7 games
4+ made 3s in 6/7 games

Curry’s 3-point efficiency in that stretch (34.3%) isn’t amazing, but it doesn’t have to be. If he’s putting up a dozen 3s, I’ll take this bet any day.

The Kings allow the second-highest 3PT% in the league (37.7).

Picks made at 11:18 a.m. ET on 02/21/2025.

Knicks vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay predictions Feb. 21: Bet on Karl-Anthony Towns, Jarrett Allen in +310 SGP

Two of the Eastern Conference’s very best are set for a showdown on Friday night in Cleveland.

The pregame narrative: The Cavaliers host the New York Knicks in a game with solid scoring potential. I’ve got the over on a teased-down total in my +310 SGP, along with prop bets on Karl-Anthony Towns and Jarrett Allen.

Check out my Knicks vs. Cavaliers same-game parlay predictions for Feb. 21.

Knicks vs. Cavaliers predictions

Parlay: Over 234.5 points | Towns 2+ threes | Allen to record a double-double (+310)

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Over 234.5 points (-210): This might seem like a lot to ask for, given that the Knicks and Cavaliers tallied just 214 points in their lone matchup this season.

But that came way back in October, and both teams’ over/under track records make this number look perfectly attainable.

Cleveland has hit the over 65.5% of the time (36-19-0, 1st in the NBA).

New York has hit the over 59.3% of the time (32-22-1, 4th in the NBA).

Both teams played last night, and a lack of rest also bodes well for tonight’s game to hit the over.

Overs are 7-1 this season when the Knicks are playing a back-to-back, per Team Rankings. And they’re 8-3 when the Cavs are playing a back-to-back.

Also, prior to the all-star break, this over cashed in eight of the Knick’s previous nine games — and in six of seven for the Cavaliers.

SGP legs

Towns 2+ threes (-180): A thumb injury hampered Towns’ 3-point shooting last month, but it seems like he’s much more comfortable shooting from deep now.

From Jan. 20 through Feb. 3, Towns posted a 20.0 3PT% in seven games. He canned multiple 3s only once.

Since then, Towns has 2+ threes in five straight games with a 48.5 3PT%.

Last night, Towns was a dreadful 2-for-10 from deep. But hey, he still cashed this bet. And the volume shows his willingness to put up shots, which is at least half the battle anyway.

On the season, KAT has hit this mark in 32 of 50 games (64.0%).

Allen to record a double-double (-124): Allen averages a double-double (13.7 points, 10.5 rebounds) and has cashed this bet in four straight games.

I’d be content riding with this as a straight wager, but it fits nicely into the SGP, too.

The 6-foot-11 centre had 16 points and 20 rebounds last night on hyper-efficient 8-of-9 shooting. He played just 25 minutes, which is a few less than average, so hopefully he’ll have plenty in the tank for Friday.

In his lone matchup against the Knicks this year, Allen finished with 15 points and 15 boards in 31 minutes of action.

Picks made at 9:30 a.m. ET on 02/21/2025.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. 2025 futures markets and predictions: MLB projections for Blue Jays star ahead of free agency

Last season started slow for Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but it ended red hot. He slugged his way to 30 homers, 103 RBI and a fourth consecutive all-star selection.

In what could be Guerrero’s final season with the Toronto Blue Jays, will he top his 2024 production?

Check out the latest Guerrero futures markets, including his MVP odds, for the 2025 MLB season.

Guerrero futures markets

Check out the latest Vlad Jr. futures markets. Click linked odds to add selection to your betslip.

Vlad Jr. futures markets	Betting odds
Over 169.5 hits	-110
Under 169.5 hits	-110
Over 31.5 home runs	-110
Under 31.5 home runs	-110
Over 89.5 RBI	-110
Under 89.5 RBI	-110

MLB odds as of 2:30 p.m. ET on 02/19/2024.

Guerrero set a deadline with the Blue Jays for contract extension talks, and that deadline passed without a deal. Hopefully that gives him some peace of mind for now, even if the status of the free-agent-to-be will loom over Jays fans all season.

One thing is certain: If Vladdy hits like he did last year, it’ll be a boon for his earnings potential.

Despite dragging a sub-.700 OPS into early May, Guerrero righted the ship and finished as one of MLB’s top hitters. His post-all-star surge was particularly heartening:

2024 first half (96 games): .289 BA, .818 OPS, 14 HRs
2024 second half (63 games): .376 BA, 1.127 OPS, 16 HRs

Was the turnaround a fluke? It sure doesn’t seem like it.

According to Baseball Savant, Guerrero ranked in the 97th percentile or better in xBA, xSLG, average exit velocity and hard-hit rate.

Odds to win AL MVP

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At +1,500, Guerrero sits in sixth place on the preseason AL MVP odds leaderboard.

Sixth is where he finished in voting last year when he accrued 6.2 bWAR. Aaron Judge, the unanimous MVP, finished with 10.8 bWAR.

Judge (+275) is the frontrunner again, with Bobby Witt Jr. (+400) close behind. One challenge for Vladdy is that he’s primarily a first baseman — a non-premier defensive position — which caps his value in the field.

We’ve seen an MVP-calibre ceiling from Guerrero, but it’s been a few years. In 2021, he led the AL in home runs (48) and OPS (1.002) in a runner-up finish behind Shohei Ohtani.

Guerrero best futures bet

Best Bet: Guerrero over 89.5 RBI (-110)

For any season-long futures bet, availability is key. You can’t pile up stats if you can’t stay on the field.

In Vladdy’s case, that hasn’t been a problem. He’s only missed 12 total games over the past four seasons.

Unsurprisingly, that impeccable attendance has resulted in some superb RBI stats.

Guerrero has 94+ RBI in four straight seasons.

For his career, the infielder has averaged 100 RBI on a per-162 basis.

Guerrero opened the 2024 season in the No. 2 spot in Toronto’s lineup, which isn’t optimal for driving in runs. But after a slow start, he was bumped down to the No. 3 spot, where he had far more success.

Vladdy’s power stroke means he can drive runs in from any spot in the order, but I’m hoping he spends most of the season in the No. 3 spot again — with either Bo Bichette or Anthony Santander ahead of him.

Since 2021, Guerrero has averaged 101 RBI per season. For a guy who has excelled at staying on the field — and hitting the snot out of the baseball — this line seems low to me.

Key stat: Last year, Guerrero had 151 at-bats with runners in scoring position (t-12th in MLB).

Pick made at 2:30 p.m. on 02/19/25.

Alabama vs. Missouri college basketball picks Feb. 19: Crimson Tide should bounce back on the road

The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide look to bounce back on Wednesday night in a road matchup against the No. 15 Missouri Tigers.

The pregame narrative: Alabama hasn’t had back-to-back losses all season, and I don’t expect that to start now. I’m backing the Tide to win and the over to cash.

Check out my Alabama vs. Missouri picks for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 19.

Alabama vs. Missouri picks

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Best Bet: Over 170.5 points (-125)

I can’t quit Alabama overs.

Alabama is the No. 1 scoring team in NCAA Division I (90.3 PPG), aided in large part by it’s No. 1 ranking in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com.

The Tide rank 3rd in 2PT% (60.3) and 4th in free throws per game (26.8).

The average total in Alabama games this year is 169.4 points. So when the right matchup comes along, clearing a 170.5-point line is a perfectly attainable ask.

Missouri fits the bill as an overs-friendly team, ranking 20th in points per game (82.6) and third in free throw attempts (27.2/game).

Tempo matters a lot when you’re dealing with a projected total this high because you need tons of possessions to score a ton of points. Alabama has proven it can push the pace.

Aside from the Tide, four other SEC schools rank in the top 65 in terms of shortest average offensive possession. Alabama has faced three of those schools, and each of its matchups totalled 185-plus points.

Missouri ranks 66th, and I expect another track meet.

Key stat: Alabama has gone over this total in eight of its past 13 games, averaging 173.1 points in those matchups.

Quick picks

Alabama moneyline (+105): Alabama was on the wrong end of a 1 versus 2 matchup over the weekend against Auburn, but I’d still take the Tide over pretty much any other SEC school right now (aside from Florida and maybe Tennessee).

Alabama is 6-0 in SEC road games this year and 8-1 on the road overall. Its only blemish was against No. 13 Purdue way back in November.

Is Missouri justified as a slight favourite tonight?

The Tigers have as many losses in the past month as the Tide have since U.S. Thanksgiving.

Alabama ranks higher than Missouri in both adjusted offensive efficiency (third vs. 11th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (39th vs. 44th).

Picks made at 12:10 p.m. ET on 02/19/2025.

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions Feb. 19: Bet on Auburn to cover, Oregon/Iowa to hit the over

The No. 1 Auburn Tigers are back in action tonight, and they slot into my three-leg, +350 parlay.

The pregame narrative: I expect a dominant home win for Auburn against the visiting Arkansas Razorbacks. Elsewhere, the Rice Owls should at least hang tough against the UAB Blazers.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 19.

NCAA basketball predictions

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Parlay: Rice +4.5 | Oregon/Iowa o157 points | Auburn -13 (+350)

Rice +4.5 (-125): Rice is 1-10 in its last 11 games, which is an awfully bleak starting point for this pick. But it’s not like the Owls are getting trampled by their fellow American Athletic Conference foes.

In eight of those 10 conference losses, the Owls lost by six or fewer points.

Rice is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven games as an underdog.

The Owls need to live at the free-throw line to succeed on Wednesday. They’ve scored 23.6% of their points at the charity stripe this season, which is the 15th-highest rate in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.

Defensively, Rice needs to handle UAB Blazers centre Yaxel Lendeborg. The 6-foot-9 senior is averaging 21.0 points over his past 10 games.

As it turns out, interior defence is Rice’s strength. The Owls are allowing a 47.2% field goal percentage from 2-point range, which ranks 47th in D-I. They have three players who are 6-foot-9 or taller that can hopefully limit Lendeborg.

KenPom and BartTorvik.com project UAB to win by one point and two points, respectively.

Other parlay picks

Oregon/Iowa over 157 points (-163): The Iowa Hawkeyes play fast and shoot well. And their opponent tonight should be able to follow suit.

Let’s start with Iowa, a team that averages the 11th-fastest offensive possession in the country (15.4 seconds). Combine that with its eighth-ranked effective FG% (57.1), and you’re looking at a team that can seriously score.

What the Hawkeyes can’t do is defend the paint. Opponents have a 56.5 2PT% against them, which ranks 344th in D-I.

Here’s hoping that the Oregon Ducks’ two frontcourt players — including 7-footer Nate Bittle — can capitalize against an Iowa lineup with zero starters taller than 6-foot-8.

Overs have cashed in four of the Duck’s past five road games. Collectively, overs are 29-22 this year for these schools.

Auburn -13 (-182): Auburn padded its resume as the No. 1 team in the country over the weekend, winning convincingly as a slight underdog against then-No. 2 Alabama.

The Tigers (23-2, 11-1 SEC) have the toughest strength of schedule and they’ve risen well above it.

Auburn is 16-9 ATS, including 5-1 ATS in its past six games.

The Tigers’ average point differential is +16.7 points.

The Arkansas Razorbacks (15-10, 4-8) rarely lose by this margin, but they also haven’t seen Auburn yet this year.

Last season, Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara combined for 30 points in an 83-51 win over Arkansas. Broom and Baker-Mazara are still the top dogs at Auburn, which helps make this spread attainable.

Arkansas is just 2-5 ATS on the road this season.

Picks made at 12:00 p.m. ET 02/19/2025

NCAA men’s college basketball parlay predictions Feb. 19: Bet on Auburn to cover, Oregon/Iowa to hit the over

The No. 1 Auburn Tigers are back in action tonight, and they slot into my three-leg, +375 parlay.

The pregame narrative: I expect a dominant home win for Auburn against the visiting Arkansas Razorbacks. Elsewhere, the Rice Owls should at least hang tough against the UAB Blazers.

Check out my NCAA basketball predictions for Feb. 19.

NCAA basketball predictions

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Parlay: Rice +4.5 | Oregon/Iowa o156.5 points | Auburn -12.5 (+375)

Embed: #109798

Rice +4.5 (-117): Rice is 1-10 in its last 11 games, which is an awfully bleak starting point for this pick. But it’s not like the Owls are getting trampled by their fellow American Athletic Conference foes.

In eight of those 10 conference losses, the Owls lost by six or fewer points.

Rice is 5-1-1 ATS in its past seven games as an underdog.

The Owls need to live at the free-throw line to succeed on Wednesday. They’ve scored 23.6% of their points at the charity stripe this season, which is the 15th-highest rate in NCAA Division I, per KenPom.com.

Defensively, Rice needs to handle UAB Blazers centre Yaxel Lendeborg. The 6-foot-9 senior is averaging 21.0 points over his past 10 games.

As it turns out, interior defence is Rice’s strength. The Owls are allowing a 47.2% field goal percentage from 2-point range, which ranks 47th in D-I. They have three players who are 6-foot-9 or taller that can hopefully limit Lendeborg.

KenPom and BartTorvik.com project UAB to win by one point and two points, respectively.

Other parlay picks

Oregon/Iowa over 156.5 points (-150): The Iowa Hawkeyes play fast and shoot well. And their opponent tonight should be able to follow suit.

Let’s start with Iowa, a team that averages the 11th-fastest offensive possession in the country (15.4 seconds). Combine that with its eighth-ranked effective FG% (57.1), and you’re looking at a team that can seriously score.

What the Hawkeyes can’t do is defend the paint. Opponents have a 56.5 2PT% against them, which ranks 344th in D-I.

Here’s hoping that the Oregon Ducks’ two frontcourt players — including 7-footer Nate Bittle — can capitalize against an Iowa lineup with zero starters taller than 6-foot-8.

Overs have cashed in four of the Duck’s past five road games. Collectively, overs are 29-22 this year for these schools.

Auburn -12.5 (-190): Auburn padded its resume as the No. 1 team in the country over the weekend, winning convincingly as a slight underdog against then-No. 2 Alabama.

The Tigers (23-2, 11-1 SEC) have the toughest strength of schedule and they’ve risen well above it.

Auburn is 16-9 ATS, including 5-1 ATS in its past six games.

The Tigers’ average point differential is +16.7 points.

The Arkansas Razorbacks (15-10, 4-8) rarely lose by this margin, but they also haven’t seen Auburn yet this year.

Last season, Johni Broome and Chad Baker-Mazara combined for 30 points in an 83-51 win over Arkansas. Broom and Baker-Mazara are still the top dogs at Auburn, which helps make this spread attainable.

Arkansas is just 2-5 ATS on the road this season.

Picks made at 11:15 a.m. ET 02/19/2025

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Alabama vs. Missouri college basketball picks Feb. 19: Crimson Tide should bounce back on the road

The No. 4 Alabama Crimson Tide look to bounce back on Wednesday night in a road matchup against the No. 15 Missouri Tigers.

The pregame narrative: Alabama hasn’t had back-to-back losses all season, and I don’t expect that to start now. I’m backing the Tide to win and the over to cash.

Check out my Alabama vs. Missouri picks for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 19.

Alabama vs. Missouri picks

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Best Bet: Over 170.5 points (-112)

Embed: #109788

I can’t quit Alabama overs.

Alabama is the No. 1 scoring team in NCAA Division I (90.3 PPG), aided in large part by it’s No. 1 ranking in adjusted tempo, per KenPom.com.

The Tide rank 3rd in 2PT% (60.3) and 4th in free throws per game (26.8).

The average total in Alabama games this year is 169.4 points. So when the right matchup comes along, clearing a 170.5-point line is a perfectly attainable ask.

Missouri fits the bill as an overs-friendly team, ranking 20th in points per game (82.6) and third in free throw attempts (27.2/game).

Tempo matters a lot when you’re dealing with a projected total this high because you need tons of possessions to score a ton of points. Alabama has proven it can push the pace.

Aside from the Tide, four other SEC schools rank in the top 65 in terms of shortest average offensive possession. Alabama has faced three of those schools, and each of its matchups totalled 185-plus points.

Missouri ranks 66th, and I expect another track meet.

Key stat: Alabama has gone over this total in eight of its past 13 games, averaging 173.1 points in those matchups.

Quick picks

Alabama moneyline (-105): Alabama was on the wrong end of a 1 versus 2 matchup over the weekend against Auburn, but I’d still take the Tide over pretty much any other SEC school right now (aside from Florida and maybe Tennessee).

Alabama is 6-0 in SEC road games this year and 8-1 on the road overall. Its only blemish was against No. 13 Purdue way back in November.

Is Missouri justified as a slight favourite tonight?

The Tigers have as many losses in the past month as the Tide have since U.S. Thanksgiving.

Alabama ranks higher than Missouri in both adjusted offensive efficiency (third vs. 11th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (39th vs. 44th).

Picks made at 11:00 a.m. ET on 02/19/2025.