Cooper Flagg and the No. 3 Duke Blue Devils hit the road on Monday to face the Virginia Cavaliers.
The pregame narrative: In what should be a lopsided ACC matchup, I like the over to cash in Charlottesville. Duke is looking to improve to 15-1 in the conference.
Check out my Duke vs. Virginia best bet for the men’s college basketball matchup on Feb. 17.
Duke vs. Virginia best bet
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Best Bet: Over 131.5 points (-110)
Betting the over in a Virginia game? It doesn’t feel right, but it’s where I’m landing with my best bet.
For years, the Tony Bennett-led Cavaliers played at a methodical, molasses-like pace and generated some of the lowest scores in NCAA Division I.
Bennett is now retired, but his successor, Ron Sanchez, has taken up the same mantle. Virginia plays at the third-slowest adjusted tempo in D-I, per KenPom.com.
Unsurprisingly, this is the lowest projected total in a Duke game this year. And I think there are some compelling reasons to side with the over:
- Five ACC schools, including Virginia, are among the 60 slowest in adjusted tempo. Duke has already faced the other four and hit the over each time.
- The Blue Devils have gone over 132.5 points in 19/25 games.
- The Cavaliers have gone over 132.5 points in 8/11 games since Jan. 8.
One key driver for offence will be Virginia’s ability to hit 3s. Duke has the No. 1 defence against 2-point shots (42.4 FG% allowed), so the interior will likely be a no-fly zone.
The Cavaliers are on fire beyond the arc right now, shooting 41.9% from deep in their past eight games.
Key stat: Overs are 4-0 in Virginia’s past four home games. The average total in those games was 137.0 points.
Pick made at 11:35 a.m. ET on 02/17/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.