Jordan Horrobin

There are four late-night MLB matchups on Monday, and I’m tapping into three of them for my MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Hunter Greene and Michael King are completely different pitchers who tend to rack up strikeouts in their own way. I’m taking plus-money overs on their strikeout props and backing Jose Altuve to score a run.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 7.

BOOST: Jays to win & Vladdy to homer (+990, was +900). Bet now.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Greene over 7.5 Ks (+130)

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No judgment from me if you’re not in the habit of watching the Cincinnati Reds. But in my view, Greene is appointment TV.

Greene sits at 99 mph with his fastball, which pairs nicely with a wipeout slider. Last season, his slider generated a 39.2% whiff rate, which ranked 29th among all sliders in MLB.

I’m trying not to get overly excited about my preseason NL Cy Young pick, but the early returns are strong:

• 12.0 IP
• 16 Ks
• 3 ER
• .130 xBA

Greene broke out last year, posting a 2.75 ERA in 26 starts en route to an all-star bid and some down-ballot Cy Young votes. But from the start of his MLB career in 2022, he’s always been an upper-tier strikeout guy.

Through exactly 400.0 innings, Greene has 501 Ks (11.3 K/9).

Some of that success has come against the San Francisco Giants, who he’ll face on the road tonight. The right-hander has 29 Ks against the Giants’ active lineup in 69 plate appearances — good for a dazzling 42.0 K%.

SF has the fifth-highest K rate in the majors so far (25.9%), which makes this a perfect spot for Greene to keep rolling.

Key stat: Greene has gone over 7.5 Ks in both outings so far this season.

Best MLB picks

King over 6.5 Ks (+108): King hit the 200-strikeout milestone last year in a fantastic first season with the San Diego Padres. He averaged 6.5 Ks over 31 starts.

The ex-Yankee who was moved in the Juan Soto trade is picking up where he left off, racking up 14 Ks through 7.2 innings this year.

He fanned 11 batters last time out against the Cleveland Guardians, a team that’s typically known as a high-contact club.

Now King faces the Athletics, who he dusted in his lone matchup against them a season ago: 5.0 innings, four hits, two runs and 12 strikeouts.

King is a changeup-first pitcher with below-average fastball velocity. He’s not a flashy guy, but his 10.9 K/9 since 2022 deserves respect.

Altuve over 0.5 runs (+160): Logan Gilbert is an elite pitcher, but this price is simply too good to pass up.

Altuve might be struggling to adjust to a new position (left field), but he’s the same productive leadoff man at the plate.

Through nine games, the seven-time Silver Slugger has scored seven runs and posted a .903 OPS. He has cashed this bet in six of those matchups.

Against Gilbert, a longtime divisional foe, Altuve is 11-for-33 with six extra-base hits and two walks (.937 OPS).

The Houston Astros as a whole are batting .248 with a .431 SLG against Gilbert, so there are some other hitters who are capable of bringing Altuve around.

MLB prop picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 04/07/2025.

The Toronto Blue Jays open a four-game set against the Boston Red Sox on Monday at storied Fenway Park.

The pregame narrative: The biggest news coming out of Toronto right now is the reported contract extension of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but I’m looking elsewhere on Monday’s prop market. I like Kristian Campbell to cross the plate for the home team, while Ernie Clement looks like a solid fade candidate.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 7.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

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Best bet: Campbell over 0.5 runs (+120)

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Vlad Jr.’s reported extension has the Jays’ fanbase buzzing, but he’s not the only guy who recently put pen to paper.

Campbell signed an eight-year, $60 million deal with the Red Sox after just a week as a big-leaguer. The 2023 draftee entered this season as a consensus top-10 MLB prospect, and he’s already paying dividends for Boston.

Good things happen when you get on base, and the 22-year-old has had no issue doing that. Through 10 games, he’s 12-for-33 (.364 BA) with eight walks (.476 OBP).

• Campbell has reached safely in all 10 games.

• He has reached base 2+ times in 8 of 10 games.

Despite his hot start, Campbell hasn’t seen a promotion within the lineup yet. He typically bats in the No. 6 or 7 spot, which isn’t an ideal position to score from.

Still, he’s creating enough scoring opportunities simply by getting on base that I’m happy to buy in at this price.

Campbell will face left-hander Easton Lucas, who carved up the Nationals in his season debut but isn’t a pitcher I’m all that worried about.

In two minor league seasons, the right-handed Campbell batted .340 with a .461 OBP against lefties.

Key stat: Campbell has scored in seven of his past eight games, tallying 10 total runs in that span.

Prop predictions

Clement under 0.5 hits (+155): This isn’t a glamorous pick by any means, but I do find the price point compelling.

Clement is 2-for-19 (.105) to start the year. And according to Baseball Savant, he hasn’t deserved better results.

• 1st percentile xBA (.094)
• 1st percentile xSLG (.146)
• 2nd percentile hard-hit rate (12.5%)

Combine that with Clement’s 86th-percentile walk rate (16.0%), and this is someone who could very easily add another hitless day to his ledger.

Clement is hitless in 15 plate appearances so far this month.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks made at 9:10 a.m. ET on 04/07/2025.

On a Sunday filled with afternoon baseball, I’ve got a pair of MLB prop bets for two of the later games.

The pregame narrative: Bryan Woo isn’t known to have an elite strikeout arm, but I like the over on his Ks prop today (even with a lot of extra juice). Elsewhere, look for Brent Rooker to power up in an optimal hitting environment.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 6.

MLB prop bets

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Best bet: Woo over 4.5 Ks (-150)

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There’s a ton of juice on this prop, so I wouldn’t blame you for wanting to pair it with something to improve the price (pairing Woo over 4.5 Ks with under 9.5 total runs generates +104 odds, for example).

I do like this wager as is, though, given Woo’s track record against the San Francisco Giants and his overall numbers since last August.

Let’s start with his stats against the Giants. The interleague matchup yields a small sample, but it’s an encouraging one.

Against SF’s active roster, Woo has allowed four hits (.148 BA) while garnering eight strikeouts (28.6 K%). He faced the Giants once in 2023 and once in ’24, collecting seven Ks in both starts.

Though he’s not an eye-popping strikeout producer, Woo is conscientious about where he’s placing the ball. He led the majors with a 2.8% walk rate last season.

And from Aug. 1 through the start of the year, he’s cashed this bet in 10 of 12 starts — averaging 5.8 Ks per outing.

Key stat: The Giants have the sixth-highest K rate in the majors so far this year (26.0%0.

Best MLB picks

Rooker over 1.5 bases (-104): Rooker can hit the ball a mile, and he’s already shown that a handful of times in the early going this season.

The designated hitter has nine hits through nine games, and four of them left the yard. He also has an 89th-percentile xSLG (.630), per Baseball Savant, to go with an 87th-percentile barrel rate (18.5%).

Rooker is a free swinger, which is frustrating at times, but his low walk rate tells you he’s up there to hack. That’s a good thing for a bases prop.

Playing at elevation inside Coors Field, Rooker will be in baseball’s friendliest offensive environment on Sunday. Hopefully he sends something to the moon.

MLB prop picks made at 2:15 p.m. ET on 04/06/2025.

After sweeping a different NL East opponent last week, the Toronto Blue Jays are at risk of being on the wrong end of the broom against the New York Mets.

The pregame narrative: Bowden Francis gets the ball for Toronto, and I like him to at least keep things tight at the halfway mark. My three-leg parlay also features prop bets on Francisco Lindor and Anthony Santander.

Check out my +350 SGP Blue Jays vs. Mets predictions for April 6.

Blue Jays vs. Mets predictions

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SGP: Blue Jays +0.5 – F5 | Lindor over 0.5 hits | Santander under 1.5 bases (+350)

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Blue Jays +0.5 – first five innings (-137): Francis took a no-hitter into the ninth inning against the Mets last year, and then disaster struck.

He coughed up a home run to the first batter of that final frame, and Toronto unravelled from there in a 6-2 loss.

Let’s not worry about the late innings in Francis’ rematch against the Mets. I’m a big fan of this F5 wager that’ll cash as long as Toronto is tied or ahead at the halfway mark.

If you follow Toronto, you know that Francis was the best story from an underperforming team down the stretch in 2024. He joined the rotation full time on Aug. 7 and posted a 1.53 ERA (with a .121 opponent BA) in his final nine outings.

Tack on Francis’ 2025 debut, and the Jays are 8-1-1 on the F5 moneyline in his past 10 starts.

The Mets are only 3-5-0 on the F5 moneyline so far this year, according to OddsShark. The Jays are 6-3-0.

MLB SGP legs

Lindor over 0.5 hits (-186): Anyone remember who broke up Francis’ no-no last year? That’s right, it was Lindor.

Though he’s off to a whisper-quiet start in 2025, Lindor is a solid candidate to notch a hit on Sunday.

New York’s leadoff man has a hit in four straight games — including a double in back-to-back matchups against Toronto

Francis had a 5.4% walk rate last year, which ranked in the 89th percentile, per Baseball Savant. And he only had a league-average K rate (22.5%, 46th percentile).

Lindor should be able to put the ball in play, and from the top of the order, I think he can find grass at least once.

Santander under 1.5 bases (-250): Like Lindor, Santander is off to a disappointing start this season.

The 44-homer man from a year ago has just one extra-base hit — a double — through nine games with the Jays.

It’s extremely early, but the batted-ball metrics aren’t painting an encouraging picture (percentile rankings in parentheses):

• .199 xBA (24th)
• .281 xSLG (18th)
• 4.0% barrel rate (26th)
• 24.0% hard-hit rate (12th)

The switch-hitter is 1-for-6 with a single and a strikeout against Mets left-hander David Peterson. It could be another grind of a day for the corner outfielder.

Blue Jays vs. Mets predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 04/06/2025.