The Toronto Blue Jays open a four-game set against the Boston Red Sox on Monday at storied Fenway Park.
The pregame narrative: The biggest news coming out of Toronto right now is the reported contract extension of Vladimir Guerrero Jr., but I’m looking elsewhere on Monday’s prop market. I like Kristian Campbell to cross the plate for the home team, while Ernie Clement looks like a solid fade candidate.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 7.
BOOST: Jays to win & Vladdy to homer (+990, was +900). Bet now.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Best bet: Campbell over 0.5 runs (+115)
Vlad Jr.’s reported extension has the Jays’ fanbase buzzing, but he’s not the only guy who recently put pen to paper.
Campbell signed an eight-year, $60 million deal with the Red Sox after just a week as a big-leaguer. The 2023 draftee entered this season as a consensus top-10 MLB prospect, and he’s already paying dividends for Boston.
Good things happen when you get on base, and the 22-year-old has had no issue doing that. Through 10 games, he’s 12-for-33 (.364 BA) with eight walks (.476 OBP).
- Campbell has reached safely in all 10 games.
- He has reached base 2+ times in 8 of 10 games.
Despite his hot start, Campbell hasn’t seen a promotion within the lineup yet. He typically bats in the No. 6 or 7 spot, which isn’t an ideal position to score from.
Still, he’s creating enough scoring opportunities simply by getting on base that I’m happy to buy in at this price.
Campbell will face left-hander Easton Lucas, who carved up the Nationals in his season debut but isn’t a pitcher I’m all that worried about.
In two minor league seasons, the right-handed Campbell batted .340 with a .461 OBP against lefties.
Key stat: Campbell has scored in seven of his past eight games, tallying 10 total runs in that span.
Prop predictions
Clement under 0.5 hits (+170): This isn’t a glamorous pick by any means, but I do find the price point compelling.
Clement is 2-for-19 (.105) to start the year. And according to Baseball Savant, he hasn’t deserved better results.
- 1st percentile xBA (.094)
- 1st percentile xSLG (.146)
- 2nd percentile hard-hit rate (12.5%)
Combine that with Clement’s 86th-percentile walk rate (16.0%), and this is someone who could very easily add another hitless day to his ledger.
Clement is hitless in 15 plate appearances so far this month.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks made at 9:40 a.m. ET on 04/07/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.