The Florida Gators face the Houston Cougars in the March Madness national championship on Monday, and I’m taking a big swing with a +700 SGP.
The pregame narrative: It’d be difficult not to back Walter Clayton Jr. after the run he’s been on to get the Gators into the title game. I’m backing him, Alijah Martin and J’Wan Roberts on the prop market alongside an alt spread in the Cougars’ favour.
Check out my Florida vs. Houston SGP predictions for the NCAA college basketball national championship on April 7.
BOOST: Over 140.5 points, Clayton & Cryer 20+ points each (+506, was +460). Bet now.
Florida vs. Houston predictions
Parlay: Houston +5.5 | Clayton over 19.5 points | Martin over 10.5 points | Roberts 6+ rebounds (+700)
Houston +5.5 (-220): Down six with under 40 seconds to play in the national semifinal, Houston probably shouldn’t be in Monday’s championship matchup.
But let’s give the Cougars credit for battling back against the Duke Blue Devils. Houston finished with 18 offensive rebounds and swarmed Duke on the other end, allowing just one field goal in the final 10:30 of the game.
Duke was the favourite to win the tournament all the way through. But it couldn’t close against a rugged, ultra-experienced Houston squad.
The Cougars are on an 18-game win streak, and they’ve covered this number in all 39 games this season.
Also, both KenPom.com and BartTorvik.com project Houston to win this game outright.
NCAA SGP legs
Clayton over 19.5 points (-129): Houston’s defence will be the toughest test of Clayton’s season.
But the inverse is true, too.
The Cougars have faced plenty of elite scorers in 2024-25, but I’m confident none of them compare to what Clayton is up to right now.
Look at the 10-game run the Iona transfer is on:
- 23.0 PPG
- 20+ points in 8 of 10
- 48.3 FG%
- 46.4 3PT%
- 87.9 FT%
Clayton is coming off back-to-back games of 30-plus points. He’s the first NCAA Division I player to do that in the Elite Eight or later since Larry Bird in 1979.
Clayton will be hounded. He will be doubled. But as a top-tier scorer at every level, I don’t think it’ll matter.
Martin over 10.5 points (-167): Florida isn’t merely the Walter Clayton Show. Martin is a fifth-year guard who came to Florida for this very moment.
The Florida Atlantic transfer — who reached the Final Four with the Cinderella-sized Owls in 2023 — is averaging 14.6 PPG this season.
He also has 10+ points in 14 of his past 15 games, including all 11 games since the start of March.
Taking multiple points props for guys facing the country’s No. 1 scoring defence is dicey, but neither Clayton nor Martin would have to overachieve to cash.
Roberts 6+ rebounds (-215): I touted this rebounding milestone for Roberts in the Final Four matchup against Duke and he crushed it, finishing with 12 boards.
That’s particularly notable because Duke is the tallest team in D-I, per KenPom. The 6-foot-8 Roberts is as tall as anyone on Houston, but he’s almost always at a size disadvantage around the rim.
Height isn’t everything, clearly.
Roberts leads the Cougars in rebounds (6.5/game) and has cashed this bet in 23 of 36 games (63.9%).
Once again, there will be a few Gators who stand taller than Roberts in Monday’s matchup. But I like his chances of putting up a fight and finding success on the glass.
Florida vs. Houston predictions made at 3:30 p.m. on 04/06/25
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.