Jordan Horrobin, Author at The Boost

Luka Doncic props for must-see return to Dallas: Fade Lakers star vs. Mavericks on April 9

On Wednesday night, Luka Doncic returns to Dallas for the first time since the seismic midseason trade, as his Los Angeles Lakers face the Mavericks.

The pregame narrative: Doncic was a dominant force in his first matchup against his old team, notching a triple-double in a winning effort. But I cashed a fade of him on that night, and I’ll try to do so again.

Check out these Luka Doncic props for the April 9 matchup against the Mavericks.

Luka Doncic props vs. Mavericks

Doncic markets	Betting odds
Over 31.5 points	-118
Under 31.5 points	-120
Over 7.5 rebounds	-154
Under 7.5 rebounds	+110
Over 8.5 assists	+110
Under 8.5 assists	-150
Over 16.5 rebounds/assists	-106
Under 16.5 rebounds/assists	-130
Over 3.5 threes	-163
Under 3.5 threes	+115
Over 1.5 steals	-120
Under 1.5 steals	-118

Best Doncic prop bet

Best Bet: Under 16.5 rebounds/assists (-130)

I’m trying to prevent the narrative of the night from taking over.

Because on one hand, wouldn’t you expect Doncic to set fire to American Airlines Center and give a mourning Dallas crowd a knife-twisting show?

On the other hand, this line has been too lofty for Doncic in recent weeks with the emergence of Austin Reaves. I’m not ready to refer to Doncic, LeBron James and Reaves as a Big Three … but they’re playing like it right now.

Here are their statistical averages since the start of March:

Doncic: 7.9 rebounds, 8.1 assists (16.0 RA)

LeBron: 7.0 rebounds, 7.2 assists (14.2 RA)

Reaves: 5.2 rebounds, 5.2 assists (10.4 RA)

When three players are averaging at least a 5-and-5 stat line on a nightly basis, it’s difficult to back any of them individually to clear a 16.5-RA prop.

Doncic posted an inefficient triple-double in his first matchup against the Mavericks back in February. He scored 19 points on 6-of-17 shooting, but buoyed the stat line with 15 rebounds and 12 assists.

Anthony Davis, who is healthy now, didn’t play in that game. From a rebounding standpoint, that matters.

I expect AD to gobble up plenty of rebounds, while LeBron and Reaves will also dip into Doncic’s potential as a rebounder and passer.

Doncic should have some cathartic moments on Wednesday night. But that doesn’t convince me to buck his recent trend of reduced production.

Key stat: In his past 11 games, Doncic has averaged 14.1 RA and hit this under nine times.

Luka Doncic prop odds as of 11:30 a.m. ET on 04/09/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 9: Ride with Harrison Barnes, Christian Braun amid hot streaks

Wednesday’s NBA prop bets aren’t brimming with star power, but all three players have been putting on star-calibre performances recently.

The pregame narrative: Christian Braun is shooting the lights out from 3-point range, albeit on limited attempts. Still, he has great value on his 3s prop tonight, while Coby White and Harrison Barnes have enjoyed some impressive scoring surges of their own.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 9.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Braun over 1.5 threes (+145)

Embed: #112298

The sky is falling in Denver, where the Nuggets have fired head coach Michael Malone and announced they will not extend general manager Calvin Booth.

It’s a stunning set of moves for a team that is two seasons removed from a championship and heading back to the postseason for a seventh consecutive year.

But will this situation have any effect on Braun?

That’s difficult to predict, but with longtime Denver assistant David Adelman taking the helm on an interim basis, my guess is no. The shakeup is worth mentioning, but it shouldn’t deter bettors from a prop like this.

Braun is an efficient 3-point shooter (39.8%) whose volume disappoints at times. But he’s trending up in that regard, which is nice to see:

October – February (59 games): 2.6 attempts/game, 36.8 3PT%

March – April (17 games): 3.8 attempts/game, 46.9 3PT%

With a line this low, any 3-point shot volume increase is significant. And it should continue with a Grade-A matchup against the Sacramento Kings on deck.

The Kings allow the second-most 3s per game (14.7) on the highest opponent 3PT% (38.2).

Braun is 5-for-11 against the Kings from deep this season, cashing this bet in both games.

Key stat: Since the start of March, Braun has gone over 1.5 threes in 10 of 17 games.

Best NBA picks

White over 22.5 points (-117): If you haven’t been paying attention to the Bulls lately, you’re missing the Coby White show.

The sixth-year guard has been on a mission in the past month-plus, putting up big scoring numbers on almost a nightly basis.

Check out his stats in 18 games since March 1:

28.4 PPG
51.7 FG%
40.0 3PT%
89.3 FT%
25+ points in 15 of 18

White rested yesterday, so he should be in peak form despite the fact that the Chicago Bulls are on a back-to-back.

He finished just shy of this mark on the road against the Miami Heat recently (21 points on March 8), but that was a game in which he shot 0-for-8 from deep.

In tonight’s rematch at home, I love his opportunity to smash the over.

Barnes over 13.5 points (-122): Nearly a decade removed from his time with the Golden State Warriors, Barnes probably doesn’t qualify for the revenge game narrative when he links up with his old club.

But he has put up some solid numbers in recent head-to-head matchups, and he’s also on fire in general right now.

Barnes is averaging 18.3 PPG against the Warriors since November 2023. He’s cashed this bet 4 of 6 games during that span.

So far in April, Barnes has 17+ points in all five games, featuring some absurd shooting splits (61.3/57.6/92.9).

Both teams are on back-to-backs, which is fine with me. Barnes has gone over 13.5 points in four of five back-to-backs since the start of March.

NBA prop picks made at 9:14 a.m. ET on 04/09/2025.

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Best NBA prop bets April 8: Fade Castle, look for Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards to shine

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards have my attention on Tuesday’s NBA prop market.

The pregame narrative: SGA has been a bit quieter than usual as a scorer in recent games, but he’s ratcheting up his assist numbers. Edwards, meanwhile, is shooting — and scoring — in bunches. In the final game of the night, Stephon Castle is my top fade candidate against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 8.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Castle under 1.5 threes (-118)

Castle is looking like the runaway winner in the NBA Rookie of the Year race, but it’s not because of his 3-point shooting.

Castle has a 28.3 3PT% this season, which ranks 23rd out of 26 rookies (minimum 15 games played and 2.0 attempted 3s per game).

With those same parameters (15 GP and 2.0 3PA), Castle ranks 291st out of 303 NBA players in 3PT%.

Castle is even colder from deep right now, and he’s in a matchup that won’t work to his advantage. So there are lots of reasons to fade the ex-UConn guard.

Over their past 15 games, the Clippers — Castle’s opponents — have allowed the fewest 3s per game (10.9) on a league-low 31.9 3PT%.

Castle is just 2-for-13 from deep against the Clips this season, hitting this under in two of three games.

He’s better off scoring from the inside while creating value as a passer and rebounder. Those are the traits that have him on the cusp of NBA ROY honours.

Key stat: Castle is shooting 24.4% from deep in his past 10 games, going under 1.5 threes in eight of those matchups.

Best NBA picks

Gilgeous-Alexander over 6.5 assists (-150): There’s a lot of juice on this prop, but I’m still quite a fan.

Here’s my case for riding with the MVP favourite against the Los Angeles Lakers:

Gilgeous-Alexander has 8+ assists in 7 of 10 games since March 16.

He finished with exactly nine assists in both matchups against L.A. this season (including this past Sunday).

Since March 1, SGA has averaged 12.8 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com.

And as a cherry on top, the Lakers allow the third-most assists to opposing point guards (9.7), per Betting Pros.

Edwards over 26.5 points (-125): I wouldn’t want to face Edwards right now with the type of run he’s on.

Check out his stats in the past 12 games:

28.6 PPG
20+ points in 10 of 12
27+ points in 8 of 12

His 35.1 3PT% in that span isn’t particularly notable — but his 10.9 attempted 3s per game are.

Given that he’s taking about 20 shots per night right now, and about half of them are coming beyond the arc, Edwards has an opportunity baseline that any prop bettor can appreciate.

I hope to see that 3-point volume remain high against the Milwaukee Bucks, who allow the eighth-most attempted 3s per game (39.1).

Edwards had 28 points on 10-of-33 shooting (4-of-17 from 3-point range) when he faced Milwaukee in February.

NBA prop picks made at 4:00 p.m. ET on 04/09/2025.

Best MLB prop bets April 8: Look for Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve to stay hot

Kyle Tucker and the Chicago Cubs draw an excellent matchup on Tuesday, which is why I’m backing him in one of my three MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Tucker has been everything the Cubs could ask for to this point, and his run prop looks like it’s oozing value tonight. I’m also buying the dip with Reds slugger Elly De La Cruz and hoping Jose Altuve can stay hot in Seattle.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 8.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Tucker over 0.5 runs (-106)

Happy Patrick Corbin day to all who celebrate.

Corbin has been the pitching version of a meat shield for several years now, and yet he still manages to find work.

Over the past four seasons, Corbin has the highest ERA (5.71) and the highest opponent batting average (.295) in MLB.

For prop bettors, he’s been the gift that keeps on giving.

With that in mind, I felt I had to bet on somebody facing Corbin tonight in his season debut. Tucker looks like a great option, with his absurd .327/.453/.712 slash line through 13 games.

Tucker, in his first year with the Cubs, has batted in the No. 2 or 3 spot in every game and scored 14 runs.

This is a lefty-on-lefty matchup, which typically works against the hitter. But Tucker’s .847 career OPS against southpaws quells that concern.

And if he finds a way on base, there are tons of Cubs who should be able to bring him around.

Chicago’s active lineup is 52-for-148 (.351 BA) against Corbin with a .601 SLG and just a 13.8 K%, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Tucker has scored in eight of his past nine games, posting a 1.478 OPS in that span.

Best MLB picks

De La Cruz over 1.5 hits/runs/RBI (+100): De La Cruz hasn’t loaded up many box scores yet this season. But he’s not lacking for pop.

He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xSLG, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.

To put it another way, his .634 xSLG is almost 200 points north of his actual slugging percentage (.442).

I view this as a buy-low spot for one of MLB’s most exciting and toolsy athletes. He’ll bat from the left side — his preferred side — tonight against little-known Giants starter, Landen Roupp.

Altuve over 0.5 runs (+145): I cashed this prop at +160 odds last night, so let’s go back to the well with Altuve against another tough pitcher.

The Astros’ leadoff man doesn’t have stellar numbers against Mariners starter Luis Castillo (3-for-13, five strikeouts), but at least there’s plenty of familiarity in this matchup.

Frankly, this bet is much more about striking at a compelling price while Altuve’s bat is hot.

He has a .357/.400/.571 slash line through 10 games, cashing this bet in six of his past seven.

Yordan Alvarez is 8-for-17 (.471) with three homers against Castillo, so if Altuve gets on, there’s at least one viable candidate to drive him in.

MLB prop picks made at 4:05 p.m. ET on 04/08/2025.

Best NBA prop bets April 8: Fade Castle, look for Gilgeous-Alexander and Edwards to shine

Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Anthony Edwards have my attention on Tuesday’s NBA prop market.

The pregame narrative: SGA has been a bit quieter than usual as a scorer in recent games, but he’s ratcheting up his assist numbers. Edwards, meanwhile, is shooting — and scoring — in bunches. In the final game of the night, Stephon Castle is my top fade candidate against the Los Angeles Clippers.

Check out the best NBA prop bets for April 8.

NBA prop bets

Best Bet: Castle under 1.5 threes (-118)

Embed: #112287

Castle is looking like the runaway winner in the NBA Rookie of the Year race, but it’s not because of his 3-point shooting.

Castle has a 28.3 3PT% this season, which ranks 23rd out of 26 rookies (minimum 15 games played and 2.0 attempted 3s per game).

With those same parameters (15 GP and 2.0 3PA), Castle ranks 291st out of 303 NBA players in 3PT%.

Castle is even colder from deep right now, and he’s in a matchup that won’t work to his advantage. So there are lots of reasons to fade the ex-UConn guard.

Over their past 15 games, the Clippers — Castle’s opponents — have allowed the fewest 3s per game (10.9) on a league-low 31.9 3PT%.

Castle is just 2-for-13 from deep against the Clips this season, hitting this under in two of three games.

He’s better off scoring from the inside while creating value as a passer and rebounder. Those are the traits that have him on the cusp of NBA ROY honours.

Key stat: Castle is shooting 24.4% from deep in his past 10 games, going under 1.5 threes in eight of those matchups.

Best NBA picks

Gilgeous-Alexander 8+ assists (+116): There’s a lot of juice on SGA over 6.5 assists (-152), so let’s bump up the risk a bit with this plus-money milestone.

Here’s my case for riding with the MVP favourite against the Los Angeles Lakers:

Gilgeous-Alexander has 8+ assists in 7 of 10 games since March 16.

He finished with exactly nine assists in both matchups against L.A. this season (including this past Sunday).

Since March 1, SGA has averaged 12.8 potential assists per game, according to NBA.com.

And as a cherry on top, the Lakers allow the third-most assists to opposing point guards (9.7), per Betting Pros.

Edwards over 26.5 points (-127): I wouldn’t want to face Edwards right now with the type of run he’s on.

Check out his stats in the past 12 games:

28.6 PPG
20+ points in 10 of 12
27+ points in 8 of 12

His 35.1 3PT% in that span isn’t particularly notable — but his 10.9 attempted 3s per game are.

Given that he’s taking about 20 shots per night right now, and about half of them are coming beyond the arc, Edwards has an opportunity baseline that any prop bettor can appreciate.

I hope to see that 3-point volume remain high against the Milwaukee Bucks, who allow the eighth-most attempted 3s per game (39.1).

Edwards had 28 points on 10-of-33 shooting (4-of-17 from 3-point range) when he faced Milwaukee in February.

NBA prop picks made at 2:14 p.m. ET on 04/09/2025.

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Best MLB prop bets April 8: Look for Kyle Tucker, Jose Altuve to stay hot

Kyle Tucker and the Chicago Cubs draw an excellent matchup on Tuesday, which is why I’m backing him in one of my three plus-money MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Tucker has been everything the Cubs could ask for to this point, and his run prop looks like it’s oozing value tonight. I’m also buying the dip with Reds slugger Elly De La Cruz and hoping Jose Altuve can stay hot in Seattle.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 8.

MLB prop bets

Best bet: Tucker over 0.5 runs (+112)

Embed: #112279

Happy Patrick Corbin day to all who celebrate.

Corbin has been the pitching version of a meat shield for several years now, and yet he still manages to find work.

Over the past four seasons, Corbin has the highest ERA (5.71) and the highest opponent batting average (.295) in MLB.

For prop bettors, he’s been the gift that keeps on giving.

With that in mind, I felt I had to bet on somebody facing Corbin tonight in his season debut. Tucker looks like a great option, with his absurd .327/.453/.712 slash line through 13 games.

Tucker, in his first year with the Cubs, has batted in the No. 2 or 3 spot in every game and scored 14 runs.

This is a lefty-on-lefty matchup, which typically works against the hitter. But Tucker’s .847 career OPS against southpaws quells that concern.

And if he finds a way on base, there are tons of Cubs who should be able to bring him around.

Chicago’s active lineup is 52-for-148 (.351 BA) against Corbin with a .601 SLG and just a 13.8 K%, per Baseball Savant.

Key stat: Tucker has scored in eight of his past nine games, posting a 1.478 OPS in that span.

Best MLB picks

De La Cruz over 1.5 bases (+140): De La Cruz hasn’t loaded up many box scores yet this season. But he’s not lacking for pop.

He ranks in the 90th percentile or better in xSLG, barrel rate, average exit velocity, and hard-hit rate.

To put it another way, his .634 xSLG is almost 200 points north of his actual slugging percentage (.442).

I view this as a buy-low spot for one of MLB’s most exciting and toolsy athletes. He’ll bat from the left side — his preferred side — tonight against little-known Giants starter, Landen Roupp.

Altuve over 0.5 runs (+150): I cashed this prop at +160 odds last night, so let’s go back to the well with Altuve against another tough pitcher.

The Astros’ leadoff man doesn’t have stellar numbers against Mariners starter Luis Castillo (3-for-13, five strikeouts), but at least there’s plenty of familiarity in this matchup.

Frankly, this bet is much more about striking at a compelling price while Altuve’s bat is hot.

He has a .357/.400/.571 slash line through 10 games, cashing this bet in six of his past seven.

Yordan Alvarez is 8-for-17 (.471) with three homers against Castillo, so if Altuve gets on, there’s at least one viable candidate to drive him in.

MLB prop picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 04/08/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop picks April 8: Garrett Crochet should work deep against Toronto

Garrett Crochet takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night with the Toronto Blue Jays in town.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won the series opener but should have a tougher task in this game. I like Crochet to work deep and Kristian Campbell to score for Boston, while Ernie Clement has value as a fade candidate.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 8.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Campbell over 0.5 runs (+125)

This was my best bet on Monday, but Campbell had the day off. Assuming he’s back in tonight, I’ll gladly give it another go.

Campbell is one of those unique rookies playing with the comfort of financial stability. He signed an eight-year, $60 million deal with the Red Sox after just one week in the majors, and it’s easy to see why Boston ponied up.

The 2023 draftee has done a remarkable job getting on base. Through 10 games, he’s 12-for-33 with eight walks and a .364/.476/.667 slash line.

Campbell has reached safely in all 10 games.

He has reached base 2+ times in 8 of 10 games.

One reason this price is available on Campbell’s run prop is that he hasn’t been promoted within the lineup yet. The 22-year-old has been in the bottom half of the order each game, typically slotted into the No. 6 or 7 spot.

Still, his on-base capabilities create enough scoring chances that I’m content to buy in.

Campbell will face left-hander Easton Lucas, who was pushed back a day in favour of Jose Berrios. Lucas carved up the Nationals in his season debut, but doesn’t have a track record that worries me.

In two minor league seasons, the right-handed Campbell batted .340 with a .461 OBP against left-handers.

Key stat: Campbell has scored in seven of his past eight games, with 10 total runs in that span.

Prop predictions

Crochet over 17.5 outs (-150): One of the big knocks on Crochet last year was his inability to work deep into games. But that’s not completely fair.

Crochet was in his first year as a starter, and the White Sox made a midseason decision to curtail his innings workload.

First three months of 2024 season: 18 starts, 16.9 outs per start, 11 games with 18+ outs

Final three months of 2024 season: 14 starts, 9.6 outs per start, zero games with 18+ outs

I anticipate that being much less of an issue this year, especially since the Red Sox inked their new ace to a $170 million contract extension. Crochet is in Boston to shove.

Last year, prior to the innings restriction, Crochet threw 6.0 innings of scoreless, two-hit ball against the Blue Jays.

Clement under 0.5 hits (+145): Once again, this is a pick I made yesterday before Clement was held out of the starting lineup. But I like the play even more with Crochet on the bump.

Clement is just 2-for-19 (.105) this season. And his batted ball metrics at Baseball Savant suggest he’s earned those unsightly results.

1st percentile xBA (.094)
1st percentile xSLG (.146)
2nd percentile hard-hit rate (12.5%)

Given that Clement also has an 86th-percentile walk rate (16.0%), this is someone who could easily add another hitless day to his ledger.

Clement is hitless in 15 plate appearances so far in April. He’s 1-for-2 off Crochet, but this price for an ice-cold hitter is calling to me.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 04/08/2025.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox prop picks April 8: Garrett Crochet should work deep against Toronto

Garrett Crochet takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night with the Toronto Blue Jays in town.

The pregame narrative: Toronto won the series opener but should have a tougher task in this game. I like Crochet to work deep and Kristian Campbell to score for Boston, while Ernie Clement has value as a fade candidate.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 8.

Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox

Best bet: Campbell over 0.5 runs (+128)

Embed: #112271

This was my best bet on Monday, but Campbell had the day off. Assuming he’s back in tonight, I’ll gladly give it another go.

Campbell is one of those unique rookies playing with the comfort of financial stability. He signed an eight-year, $60 million deal with the Red Sox after just one week in the majors, and it’s easy to see why Boston ponied up.

The 2023 draftee has done a remarkable job getting on base. Through 10 games, he’s 12-for-33 with eight walks and a .364/.476/.667 slash line.

Campbell has reached safely in all 10 games.

He has reached base 2+ times in 8 of 10 games.

One reason this price is available on Campbell’s run prop is that he hasn’t been promoted within the lineup yet. The 22-year-old has been in the bottom half of the order each game, typically slotted into the No. 6 or 7 spot.

Still, his on-base capabilities create enough scoring chances that I’m content to buy in.

Campbell will face left-hander Easton Lucas, who was pushed back a day in favour of Jose Berrios. Lucas carved up the Nationals in his season debut, but doesn’t have a track record that worries me.

In two minor league seasons, the right-handed Campbell batted .340 with a .461 OBP against left-handers.

Key stat: Campbell has scored in seven of his past eight games, with 10 total runs in that span.

Prop predictions

Crochet over 17.5 outs (-129): One of the big knocks on Crochet last year was his inability to work deep into games. But that’s not completely fair.

Crochet was in his first year as a starter, and the White Sox made a midseason decision to curtail his innings workload.

First three months of 2024 season: 18 starts, 16.9 outs per start, 11 games with 18+ outs

Final three months of 2024 season: 14 starts, 9.6 outs per start, zero games with 18+ outs

I anticipate that being much less of an issue this year, especially since the Red Sox inked their new ace to a $170 million contract extension. Crochet is in Boston to shove.

Last year, prior to the innings restriction, Crochet threw 6.0 innings of scoreless, two-hit ball against the Blue Jays.

Clement under 0.5 hits (+140): Once again, this is a pick I made yesterday before Clement was held out of the starting lineup. But I like the play even more with Crochet on the bump.

Clement is just 2-for-19 (.105) this season. And his batted ball metrics at Baseball Savant suggest he’s earned those unsightly results.

1st percentile xBA (.094)
1st percentile xSLG (.146)
2nd percentile hard-hit rate (12.5%)

Given that Clement also has an 86th-percentile walk rate (16.0%), this is someone who could easily add another hitless day to his ledger.

Clement is hitless in 15 plate appearances so far in April. He’s 1-for-2 off Crochet, but this price for an ice-cold hitter is calling to me.

Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 04/08/2025.

Warriors vs. Suns SGP predictions April 8: Back Golden State to cover, Podziemski to light it up

The Golden State Warriors look to keep rolling on Tuesday night in a road matchup against the Phoenix Suns.

The pregame narrative: Phoenix is in a season-ending spiral, which means Golden State should take care of business in this one. My +430 SGP also includes scoring props for Devin Booker and Brandin Podziemski.

Check out my Warriors vs. Suns SGP predictions for April 8.

Warriors vs. Suns predictions

Parlay: Warriors -6.5 | Booker 25+ points | Podziemski over 2.5 threes (+430)

Embed: #112268

Warriors -6.5 (-157): The Warriors are 0-3 against this number when facing the Suns this year, but context matters.

Kevin Durant, who’s out tonight, suited up for Phoenix in each of those matchups. And these teams haven’t met since January.

Right now, the Warriors find themselves in a five-team logjam for the Nos. 4-8 seeds in the Western Conference. Every game matters.

As for the Suns … well, they’re 2.5 games out of the final play-in spot and are probably eyeing the best Cancun packages on Expedia.

Golden State is 4-1-1 ATS in its past six games, covering a -6.5 spread against the Grizzlies, Lakers and Nuggets in that span.

Phoenix has lost six straight games by 10+ points.

NBA SGP legs

Booker 25+ points (-265): For as down bad as the Suns are right now, this should be a smash for their best active player.

Booker has crested the 35-point mark in all three games this month and is averaging 25.9 PPG on the season.

He’s also known to tear up the Warriors, scoring 25-plus points in all nine matchups since the start of the 2022-23 season.

With Durant sidelined, there should be no shortage of shot attempts coming from Booker. He’s averaging 28.6 PPG in 16 games without Durant this season.

Podziemski over 2.5 threes (+123): I initially had Podziemski for two-plus 3s in this SGP, which puts the odds at +260 for the ticket.

Depending on your risk appetite, though, I think bumping up that milestone is worth considering.

Since returning from a back injury, Podziemski has been doing a pretty decent Steph Curry impression:

10 games
3+ threes in 7 of 10
3.8 3PM
7.4 3PA

That all adds up to a 50.7% 3-point percentage, and I’m eager to ride the wave.

Phoenix allows the eighth-most threes per game (14.2) and the fourth-highest 3PT% (36.9).

Warriors vs. Suns predictions made at 9:55 a.m. ET 04/08/2025.

Florida vs. Houston NCAA national championship SGP predictions: Ride with Alijah Martin, J’Wan Roberts in +450 parlay

The Florida Gators face the Houston Cougars in the March Madness national championship on Monday, and I’m taking a big swing with a +450 SGP.

The pregame narrative: It’d be difficult not to ride with Walter Clayton Jr. after the run he’s been on to get the Gators into the title game. I’m backing him, Alijah Martin and J’Wan Roberts on the prop market in my three-leg ticket.

Check out my Florida vs. Houston SGP predictions for the NCAA college basketball national championship on April 7.

Florida vs. Houston predictions

Parlay: Clayton over 19.5 points | Martin over 12.5 points | Roberts over 6.5 rebounds (+450)

Clayton over 19.5 points (-118): Houston’s defence will be the toughest test of Clayton’s season.

But the inverse is true, too.

The Cougars have faced plenty of elite scorers in 2024-25, but I’m confident none of them compare to what Clayton is up to right now.

Look at the 10-game run the Iona transfer is on:

23.0 PPG
20+ points in 8 of 10
48.3 FG%
46.4 3PT%
87.9 FT%

Clayton is coming off back-to-back games of 30-plus points. He’s the first NCAA Division I player to do that in the Elite Eight or later since Larry Bird in 1979.

Clayton will be hounded. He will be doubled. But as a top-tier scorer at every level, I don’t think it’ll matter.

NCAA SGP legs

Martin over 12.5 points (-118): Florida isn’t merely the Walter Clayton Show. Martin is a fifth-year guard who came to Florida for this very moment.

The Florida Atlantic transfer — who reached the Final Four with the Cinderella-sized Owls in 2023 — is averaging 14.6 PPG this season.

He also has 10+ points in 11 straight games, cashing this prop eight times in that span.

Taking multiple points props for guys facing the country’s No. 1 scoring defence is dicey, but neither Clayton nor Martin would have to overachieve to cash.

Roberts over 6.5 rebounds (-138): I touted Roberts’ rebounding prop in the Final Four matchup against Duke and he crushed it, finishing with 12 boards.

That’s particularly notable because Duke is the tallest team in D-I, per KenPom. The 6-foot-8 Roberts is as tall as anyone on Houston, but he’s almost always at a size disadvantage around the rim.

Height isn’t everything, clearly.

Roberts leads the Cougars in rebounds (6.5/game) and has six-plus boards in 23 of 36 games (63.9%).

Once again, there will be a few Gators who stand taller than Roberts in Monday’s matchup. But I like his chances of putting up a fight and finding success on the glass.

Florida vs. Houston predictions made at 1:40 p.m. on 04/07/25