Garrett Crochet takes the mound for the Boston Red Sox on Tuesday night with the Toronto Blue Jays in town.
The pregame narrative: Toronto won the series opener but should have a tougher task in this game. I like Crochet to work deep and Kristian Campbell to score for Boston, while Ernie Clement has value as a fade candidate.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox for April 8.
Blue Jays picks vs. Red Sox
Best bet: Campbell over 0.5 runs (+128)
This was my best bet on Monday, but Campbell had the day off. Assuming he’s back in tonight, I’ll gladly give it another go.
Campbell is one of those unique rookies playing with the comfort of financial stability. He signed an eight-year, $60 million deal with the Red Sox after just one week in the majors, and it’s easy to see why Boston ponied up.
The 2023 draftee has done a remarkable job getting on base. Through 10 games, he’s 12-for-33 with eight walks and a .364/.476/.667 slash line.
- Campbell has reached safely in all 10 games.
- He has reached base 2+ times in 8 of 10 games.
One reason this price is available on Campbell’s run prop is that he hasn’t been promoted within the lineup yet. The 22-year-old has been in the bottom half of the order each game, typically slotted into the No. 6 or 7 spot.
Still, his on-base capabilities create enough scoring chances that I’m content to buy in.
Campbell will face left-hander Easton Lucas, who was pushed back a day in favour of Jose Berrios. Lucas carved up the Nationals in his season debut, but doesn’t have a track record that worries me.
In two minor league seasons, the right-handed Campbell batted .340 with a .461 OBP against left-handers.
Key stat: Campbell has scored in seven of his past eight games, with 10 total runs in that span.
Prop predictions
Crochet over 17.5 outs (-129): One of the big knocks on Crochet last year was his inability to work deep into games. But that’s not completely fair.
Crochet was in his first year as a starter, and the White Sox made a midseason decision to curtail his innings workload.
- First three months of 2024 season: 18 starts, 16.9 outs per start, 11 games with 18+ outs
- Final three months of 2024 season: 14 starts, 9.6 outs per start, zero games with 18+ outs
I anticipate that being much less of an issue this year, especially since the Red Sox inked their new ace to a $170 million contract extension. Crochet is in Boston to shove.
Last year, prior to the innings restriction, Crochet threw 6.0 innings of scoreless, two-hit ball against the Blue Jays.
Clement under 0.5 hits (+140): Once again, this is a pick I made yesterday before Clement was held out of the starting lineup. But I like the play even more with Crochet on the bump.
Clement is just 2-for-19 (.105) this season. And his batted ball metrics at Baseball Savant suggest he’s earned those unsightly results.
- 1st percentile xBA (.094)
- 1st percentile xSLG (.146)
- 2nd percentile hard-hit rate (12.5%)
Given that Clement also has an 86th-percentile walk rate (16.0%), this is someone who could easily add another hitless day to his ledger.
Clement is hitless in 15 plate appearances so far in April. He’s 1-for-2 off Crochet, but this price for an ice-cold hitter is calling to me.
Blue Jays vs. Red Sox picks made at 11:10 a.m. ET on 04/08/2025.
Jordan enjoys writing data-driven game previews and analysis articles — especially for MLB markets or NFL/NBA props. And as a proud Ohio University grad, he’ll always have a soft spot for college sports (especially if the Bobcats are involved). Previous stops include mlb.com, Sportsnet and The Athletic.