Avery Perri

I’m targeting three hitters in Wednesday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Taylor Ward has a plus matchup against one of the league’s biggest punching bags. I’m betting on him to mash alongside Bobby Witt Jr. and Trevor Story.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 16.

MLB prop bets

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Best Bet: Ward over 1.5 bases (-130)

Everyone in the Los Angeles Angels’ clubhouse should be salivating at tonight’s matchup.

Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Texas Rangers, and it’s a miracle he’s still playing in the big leagues. Check out the lefty’s numbers over the last four seasons:

• 5.71 ERA
• .295 opponent BA
• 4.99 FIP
• 1.62 HR/9

His 5.71 ERA and .295 opponent BA are the worst among 156 qualified pitchers, according to FanGraphs. Corbin’s talent is that he eats innings — he’s thrown north of 150 in the last four seasons — and that’s what Texas is asking him to do tonight.

I was originally looking at bigger names like Mike Trout or Jorge Soler, but I believe Ward has the best chance of doing damage tonight.

L.A.’s leadoff man rakes against lefties and will get the most possible plate appearances against Corbin. He also has five home runs in his last six games.

Key stat: Ward is batting .325 with a 146 wRC+ against LHPs since 2024.

Best MLB picks

Witt to score (+110): Bettors should look toward Witt’s run prop anytime it’s at plus money. And I’m ready to pounce on tonight’s matchup against the New York Yankees and Clarke Schmidt.

Last year’s AL MVP runner-up is off to a hot start, batting .313 with 11 runs in 18 games. That sounds pretty good, but the scary thing is that he’s not playing near his ceiling.

Schmidt is making his first start of the season after recovering from a shoulder injury. He posted a stellar 2.85 ERA last year, though the underlying metrics weren’t quite as impressive:

• 3.78 xERA (58th percentile)
• 8.5% walk rate (41st percentile)

The righty did have a 26.3% K rate (74th percentile), but Witt is one of the league’s best contact hitters. I expect him to get on board and eventually score.

Kansas City’s current roster is batting .271 against Schmidt in 63 plate appearances.

Story over 1.5 bases (+130): Story started his year off by going 2-for-15 in March with a pair of singles. But since then, he’s been on fire.

• .356 BA
• .542 SLG
• 2+ bases in 8 of 14 games

Boston’s shortstop is on a six-game hit streak in which he’s batting .423 with one home run and one double. Tonight, he goes up against Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell, who’s in a bad place.

The veteran righty has a 6.88 ERA through three starts and has given up 14 hits — and five home runs — in his last two outings.

MLB prop picks made at 11:05 a.m. ET on 04/16/2025.

Two all-star hitters and one pitcher are the focus of Tuesday’s MLB prop bets.

The pregame narrative: Kyle Tucker is on fire and faces a pitcher who is over-indexing, while Bryce Harper gets an A-plus matchup against Justin Verlander. I’m also backing Tampa Bay’s Ryan Pepiot to shove against the Boston Red Sox.

Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 15.

MLB prop bets

• Full MLB betting markets
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Best Bet: Tucker to score (-112)

Tucker has the focus of our MLB prop bets a lot this season — and with the way he’s playing, I see no reason for that to change.

The first-year Chicago Cub has been on a tear, hitting .307 with a 1.042 OPS through 19 games. According to Baseball Savant, he ranks in the 90th percentile or higher in…

• xBA (.313)
• xSLG (.663)
• K rate (12.1%)
• Walk rate (17.6%)

That’ll do. Tonight, he gets to go up against Randy Vasquez, who has had a peculiar start to the season.

The San Diego Padres’ righty has a 1.72 ERA through three starts, but the underlying metrics indicate he’s been incredibly lucky.

Vasquez has a 6.38 ERA (11th percentile) to pair with a 9.7% K rate (fourth percentile) and 19.4% walk rate (fifth percentile).

It’s a borderline miracle he hasn’t gotten touched up yet, and I think Tucker and Co. end that trend tonight.

Key stat: Tucker has scored the most runs (19) and has the 11th-best on-base percentage (.429) in baseball.

Best MLB picks

Harper over 1.5 bases (+120): Harper and Verlander will both be in Cooperstown when it’s all said and done. But right now, the two are in very different stages of their career.

Harper is one year removed from finishing sixth in NL MVP voting, while Verlander is struggling to find form with the San Francisco Giants.

The 42-year-old righty has a 6.92 ERA over three starts, and last year’s stats (5.48 ERA in 90.1 IP) indicate this isn’t a small-sample outlier.

Harper is 6-for-12 lifetime against Verlander and seems due to break out of a mini-slump.

Pepiot over 17.5 outs (-106): I turned to Pepiot frequently last season and want to back him against the struggling Red Sox tonight.

• Boston has the second-highest K rate in MLB.

• The Red Sox are 2-6 in their last eight games. In that span, they’re averaging just 1.9 runs per game.

You could make a good argument taking Pepiot over 17.5 outs or over 6.5 Ks. It’s a small sample, but he’s held the Red Sox to a .225 batting average with a 40.0% K rate in 35 plate appearances.

I’ll opt for the former, though. Boston’s offence is anemic, and Pepiot’s pitch count has climbed with every game.

MLB prop picks made at 12:22 p.m. ET on 04/15/2025.

Two aces face off at Rogers Center on Tuesday when the Toronto Blue Jays host the Atlanta Braves.

The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman is off to a hot start and is a good bet to clear a modest strikeout total. Spencer Schwellenbach, meanwhile, has been borderline unhittable, which has me fading Bo Bichette.

Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 15.

Blue Jays picks vs. Braves

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Best Bet: Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)

Gausman is starting to look like his old self.

Through three games, the righty has a 2.33 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. The latter ranks second in all of MLB and has helped him pitch deep into ball games. I’m not asking Gausman to throw a complete game — though it would certainly help — and am instead banking on his swing-and-miss stuff.

In his last outing, against the Boston Red Sox on April 9, Gausman twirled an 8.0 IP gem where he gave up one run and had 10 strikeouts.

He fanned zero in the game before that against the New York Mets and had four against the Baltimore Orioles in his first start of the season. That’s pretty inconsistent.

So let’s take a look at his numbers, via Baseball Savant:

We’re early into the season, but it’s encouraging to see Gausman’s chase rate back near his 2023 numbers.

The Braves have the fifth-highest K rate in MLB so far (25.2%), so I like Gausman’s chances of having a Red Sox-type outing instead of a Mets one.

Key stat: Gausman has a 27.3% K rate against Atlanta’s current lineup (44 plate appearances).

Quick picks

Bichette under 1.5 bases (-150): I was looking for ways to back Schwellenbach, who is off to a Cy Young-calibre start (0.45 ERA, 0.65 WHIP), but wasn’t in love with taking the over on his 4.5 strikeout total.

That’s because Toronto has the third-lowest K rate (18.3%) and lowest whiff rate (21.7%) in MLB.

Then there was Schwellenbach’s outs prop, set at 17.5 with -200 juice toward the over. I think he clears that mark, but don’t want to pay the price.

So instead, I’ll turn to fading Bichette, who’s had quite a power outage to begin the season. Toronto’s shortstop is batting .297 but has just five extra-base hits (all doubles) in 17 games.

Bichette is 8-9 against this line and went 0-for-4 last night.

Braves vs. Blue Jays picks made at 12:23 p.m. ET on 04/15/2025.