Two aces face off at Rogers Center on Tuesday when the Toronto Blue Jays host the Atlanta Braves.
The pregame narrative: Kevin Gausman is off to a hot start and is a good bet to clear a modest strikeout total. Spencer Schwellenbach, meanwhile, has been borderline unhittable, which has me fading Bo Bichette.
Check out my Blue Jays picks vs. Braves for April 15.
Blue Jays picks vs. Braves
Best Bet: Gausman over 5.5 strikeouts (+110)
Gausman is starting to look like his old self.
Through three games, the righty has a 2.33 ERA and 0.62 WHIP. The latter ranks second in all of MLB and has helped him pitch deep into ball games. I’m not asking Gausman to throw a complete game — though it would certainly help — and am instead banking on his swing-and-miss stuff.
In his last outing, against the Boston Red Sox on April 9, Gausman twirled an 8.0 IP gem where he gave up one run and had 10 strikeouts.
He fanned zero in the game before that against the New York Mets and had four against the Baltimore Orioles in his first start of the season. That’s pretty inconsistent.
So let’s take a look at his numbers, via Baseball Savant:
| K rate | Whiff rate | Chase rate | |
| 2023 | 31.3% | 28.9% | 32.6% |
| 2024 | 21.4% | 23.3% | 29.8% |
| 2025 | 20.6% | 21.3% | 34.8% |
We’re early into the season, but it’s encouraging to see Gausman’s chase rate back near his 2023 numbers.
The Braves have the fifth-highest K rate in MLB so far (25.2%), so I like Gausman’s chances of having a Red Sox-type outing instead of a Mets one.
Key stat: Gausman has a 27.3% K rate against Atlanta’s current lineup (44 plate appearances).
Quick picks
Bichette under 1.5 bases (-150): I was looking for ways to back Schwellenbach, who is off to a Cy Young-calibre start (0.45 ERA, 0.65 WHIP), but wasn’t in love with taking the over on his 4.5 strikeout total.
That’s because Toronto has the third-lowest K rate (18.3%) and lowest whiff rate (21.7%) in MLB.
Then there was Schwellenbach’s outs prop, set at 17.5 with -200 juice toward the over. I think he clears that mark, but don’t want to pay the price.
So instead, I’ll turn to fading Bichette, who’s had quite a power outage to begin the season. Toronto’s shortstop is batting .297 but has just five extra-base hits (all doubles) in 17 games.
Bichette is 8-9 against this line and went 0-for-4 last night.
Braves vs. Blue Jays picks made at 12:23 p.m. ET on 04/15/2025.
Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.