I’m targeting three hitters in Wednesday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: Taylor Ward has a plus matchup against one of the league’s biggest punching bags. I’m betting on him to mash alongside Bobby Witt Jr. and Trevor Story.
Check out the best MLB prop bets for April 16.
MLB prop bets
Best Bet: Ward over 1.5 bases (-121)
Everyone in the Los Angeles Angels’ clubhouse should be salivating at tonight’s matchup.
Patrick Corbin is on the mound for the Texas Rangers, and it’s a miracle he’s still playing in the big leagues. Check out the lefty’s numbers over the last four seasons:
- 5.71 ERA
- .295 opponent BA
- 4.99 FIP
- 1.62 HR/9
His 5.71 ERA and .295 opponent BA are the worst among 156 qualified pitchers, according to FanGraphs. Corbin’s talent is that he eats innings — he’s thrown north of 150 in the last four seasons — and that’s what Texas is asking him to do tonight.
I was originally looking at bigger names like Mike Trout or Jorge Soler, but I believe Ward has the best chance of doing damage tonight.
L.A.’s leadoff man rakes against lefties and will get the most possible plate appearances against Corbin. He also has five home runs in his last six games.
Key stat: Ward is batting .325 with a 146 wRC+ against LHPs since 2024.
Best MLB picks
Witt to score (+105): Bettors should look toward Witt’s run prop anytime it’s at plus money. And I’m ready to pounce on tonight’s matchup against the New York Yankees and Clarke Schmidt.
Last year’s AL MVP runner-up is off to a hot start, batting .313 with 11 runs in 18 games. That sounds pretty good, but the scary thing is that he’s not playing near his ceiling.
Schmidt is making his first start of the season after recovering from a shoulder injury. He posted a stellar 2.85 ERA last year, though the underlying metrics weren’t quite as impressive:
- 3.78 xERA (58th percentile)
- 8.5% walk rate (41st percentile)
The righty did have a 26.3% K rate (74th percentile), but Witt is one of the league’s best contact hitters. I expect him to get on board and eventually score.
Kansas City’s current roster is batting .271 against Schmidt in 63 plate appearances.
Story over 1.5 bases (+128): Story started his year off by going 2-for-15 in March with a pair of singles. But since then, he’s been on fire.
- .356 BA
- .542 SLG
- 2+ bases in 8 of 14 games
Boston’s shortstop is on a six-game hit streak in which he’s batting .423 with one home run and one double. Tonight, he goes up against Tampa Bay’s Zack Littell, who’s in a bad place.
The veteran righty has a 6.88 ERA through three starts and has given up 14 hits — and five home runs — in his last two outings.
MLB prop picks made at 1:31 p.m. ET on 04/16/2025.
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Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.