Avery joined NorthStar Gaming as an intern in 2022 before stepping into a full-time role soon after. He loves betting on and analyzing golf — mainly because it’s easier than actually playing — but is a fan of all sports, from the NFL to the UFC.
The NBA-best Oklahoma City Thunder begin their playoff run on Sunday against the Memphis Grizzlies.
The pregame narrative: OKC has been unstoppable all season, and I expect it to cover a lofty spread in its postseason opener behind a typical Shai Gilgeous-Alexander performance. On the other end, back Zach Edey to rack up rebounds.
Check out my Grizzlies vs. Thunder play-in SGP predictions for April 20.
Thunder -11.5 (-134): The Thunder (68-14) just put together one of the greatest regular seasons in NBA history — and that’s not an exaggeration.
OKC’s 82.9 win percentage is the sixth-best all-time and the second-best this century behind the 2015-16 Golden State Warriors.
The Thunder’s +12.8 net rating is second-best all-time behind the 1995-96 Chicago Bulls.
Memphis isn’t a bad team by any stretch, and its 48-34 record would have been good for the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference.
But the Grizzlies are running into a buzzsaw that has already gashed them a few times this season.
OKC went 4-0 vs. Memphis this year, winning each game by at least 13 points.
NBA SGP legs
Gilgeous-Alexander 30+ points (-195): I think the MVP race will be closer than some anticipate, but SGA should get the nod after a stellar season.
The Canadian guard led the league in scoring (32.7 PPG) while shooting 51.9% from the field.
He has 30+ points in 49 of 76 games, including 25 of 39 at home.
Gilgeous-Alexander cleared this milestone in all four games against the Grizzlies this season. In the two games at Paycom Center, he dropped 35 and 37 points on combined 29-of-44 shooting (65.9%).
Memphis allowed the third-most PPG to opposing point guards in the last 30 days of the season, according to Fantasy Pros.
Edey 10+ rebounds (-210): I’ll happily add Edey recording double-digit boards to nearly any SGP, as long as he keeps getting big minutes.
Check out what the Canadian centre has done since being reinserted into the starting lineup on March 29.
13.5 rebounds/game
11+ rebounds in 8 of 10 games
13+ rebounds in 6 of 10 games
Edey went 0-3 against this line vs. OKC this year, but never played more than 20 minutes. He’s had 30-plus minutes of playing time in five straight games.
The 7-foot-4, 305-pound big man should feast against a Thunder team which ranked a pedestrian 19th in rebounding rate.
Grizzlies vs. Thunder predictions made at 1:30 p.m. ET 04/19/2025.
San Diego Padres ace Michael King headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: I’m betting on King to clear his strikeout total against the Houston Astros, and Garrett Crochet to do the same against the Chicago White Sox. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also holds value to do damage at the plate.
Call it recency bias, but I think it’s fair to say the Padres won the Juan Soto trade.
King just threw a complete-game shutout for San Diego (striking out eight), while Soto is playing in Queens instead of the Bronx.
In 2024, King posted a 2.95 ERA in his first season with the Padres to pair with an 81st percentile K rate (27.7%).
The righty started 31 games and cleared this total 13 times, also landing on exactly six strikeouts eight times. One of those games was against the Astros on Sept. 17 when he fanned seven batters in 7.0 IP.
This season, King is 2-2 against this line with a 26.4% K rate.
The Astros are a below-average swing-and-miss team, but King dominated them last year and has a favourable history dating back to his days as a Yankees reliever.
Key stat: King has a 31.3% K rate against Houston’s current lineup in 48 plate appearances.
Best MLB picks
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+116): Vladdy isn’t playing like a $500-million man right now, but he’s not as far off as you’d think. Check out his 2025 numbers compared to Baseball Savant’s expected stats:
.280 batting average and .373 slugging percentage
.342 xBA (96th percentile) and .548 xSLG (95th percentile)
That’s nice and all, but Vladdy will have to replace the “expected” hits with real ones. Tonight’s matchup seems like a good opportunity.
The Seattle Mariners are trotting out ace Logan Gilbert to the mound, and Guerrero has had success against him in the past, going 5-for-13 with two home runs and a double.
Guerrero had the sixth-most total bases last year (335).
Crochet over 7.5 strikeouts (-120): This is a big number, but it’s one Crochet is capable of clearing, especially against the White Sox.
We just saw Crochet dominate his old club, throwing 7.1 innings of one-hit ball and striking out 11 on April 13. Two starts before that, he fanned eight Baltimore Orioles in 8.0 IP.
As a member of the White Sox last season, Crochet had a 35.1% K rate (98th percentile). He was one of the only good things going for Chicago, which was absolutely horrid at the plate.
Not much has changed this year. Expect Crochet to cruise.
MLB prop picks made at 12:12 p.m. ET on 04/19/2025.
The Minnesota Timberwolves and Los Angeles Lakers begin a star-studded series on Saturday.
The pregame narrative: Los Angeles has run roughshod at home this season, and is a good bet to cover a teased-down spread in Game 1. On the prop market, look for Austin Reaves and Anthony Edwards to produce.
Check out my Timberwolves vs. Lakers play-in SGP predictions for April 19.
Lakers -1.5 (-167): Rob Pelinka must still be cackling over the fact that he has Luka Doncic on his roster for this playoff run (and for years to come). And no shade to Anthony Davis, but Doncic is just a different type of player.
L.A. is 18-10 with Doncic in the lineup, and some of those games were played without LeBron James.
The squad is 7-3 in the last 10 when Doncic and James are playing, including a win over the West’s top-seeded Oklahoma City Thunder.
Los Angeles also sported a 31-10 record at Crypto.com Arena this season (third-best home record in the NBA), beating Minnesota twice at home.
NBA SGP legs
Reaves over 9.5 rebounds/assists (-103): I don’t think it’s egregious to put Reaves alongside Doncic and James as Los Angeles’ “Big Three” — the fourth-year guard is just that good.
Reaves averaged 20.2 points, 4.5 rebounds, and 5.9 assists this season. He can fill the basket with ease and is constantly looking for other ways to stuff the stat sheet.
And check out what Reaves has done over the last 18 games:
5.3 rebounds/game
5.7 assists/game
10+ rebounds/assists 12 times
Reaves has played the T-Wolves three times this year and cleared this total in each outing. Doncic wasn’t on the squad for two of those games, to be fair, but Reaves did have six rebounds and five assists in the most recent games with everyone in the lineup.
Edwards 3+ threes (-375): Let’s get the ugly out of the way: Edwards is 0-3 against this line vs. the Lakers this year. That said, there are plenty of reasons to believe he’ll step up under the bright postseason lights.
Edwards averaged the second-most 3-point makes (4.1) and attempts (10.3) this season.
He hit 3+ threes in 62 of 79 games (78.4%).
Los Angeles held opponents to the 11th-lowest 3-point percentage this season. But Edwards is a volume shooter (and an accurate one, at that) who enters the postseason on an absolute heater.
The shooting guard averaged 4.7 threes in April on 38.8% shooting.
Timberwolves vs. Lakers predictions made at 12:08 p.m. ET 04/18/2025.
San Diego Padres ace Michael King headlines Saturday’s MLB prop bets.
The pregame narrative: I’m betting on King to clear his strikeout total against the Houston Astros, and Garrett Crochet to do the same against the Chicago White Sox. Vladimir Guerrero Jr. also holds value to do damage at the plate.
Call it recency bias, but I think it’s fair to say the Padres won the Juan Soto trade.
King just threw a complete-game shutout for San Diego (striking out eight), while Soto is playing in Queens instead of the Bronx.
In 2024, King posted a 2.95 ERA in his first season with the Padres to pair with an 81st percentile K rate (27.7%).
The righty started 31 games and cleared this total 13 times, also landing on exactly six strikeouts eight times. One of those games was against the Astros on Sept. 17 when he fanned seven batters in 7.0 IP.
This season, King is 2-2 against this line with a 26.4% K rate.
The Astros are a below-average swing-and-miss team, but King dominated them last year and has a favourable history dating back to his days as a Yankees reliever.
Key stat: King has a 31.3% K rate against Houston’s current lineup in 48 plate appearances.
Best MLB picks
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+115): Vladdy isn’t playing like a $500-million man right now, but he’s not as far off as you’d think. Check out his 2025 numbers compared to Baseball Savant’s expected stats:
.280 batting average and .373 slugging percentage
.342 xBA (96th percentile) and .548 xSLG (95th percentile)
That’s nice and all, but Vladdy will have to replace the “expected” hits with real ones. Tonight’s matchup seems like a good opportunity.
The Seattle Mariners are trotting out ace Logan Gilbert to the mound, and Guerrero has had success against him in the past, going 5-for-13 with two home runs and a double.
Guerrero had the sixth-most total bases last year (335).
Crochet over 7.5 strikeouts (-134): This is a big number, but it’s one Crochet is capable of clearing, especially against the White Sox.
We just saw Crochet dominate his old club, throwing 7.1 innings of one-hit ball and striking out 11 on April 13. Two starts before that, he fanned eight Baltimore Orioles in 8.0 IP.
As a member of the White Sox last season, Crochet had a 35.1% K rate (98th percentile). He was one of the only good things going for Chicago, which was absolutely horrid at the plate.
Not much has changed this year. Expect Crochet to cruise.
MLB prop picks made at 9:31 a.m. ET on 04/18/2025.
The Battle of Ontario is renewed on Sunday when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators.
The pregame narrative: Ottawa has had Toronto’s number this season, but I think the Maple Leafs win Game 1 in regulation. William Nylander has elevated to an elite goalscorer this season, and I expect him to score.
Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for Game 1 of the opening round.
Toronto’s playoff shortcomings are tied to offensive ineptitude — the team has scored two or fewer goals in 13 of its last 14 postseason games — but Nylander has done his part.
In the last two seasons, he has seven goals and 13 points in 15 playoff games.
I expect the Maple Leafs’ offence to perform better as a whole this time around, and for Nylander to lead the charge.
Shutting down the Matthew Knies-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner line will be priority No. 1 for the Senators. In theory, that should leave more opportunities for Nylander to feast.
And that’s what he’s done all season.
The Swede’s 45 goals were second only to Leon Draisaitl, and 33 of those came at even-strength.
Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark has been great down the stretch, but I seriously question his ability in the playoffs. The netminder has a 3.59 GAA and .859 SV% in 10 playoff appearances (nine starts).
Key stat: Nylander’s 125 goals over the last three seasons rank seventh in the NHL.
Quick picks
Sanderson over 2.5 shots on goal (+125): Toronto has the fourth-worst 5v5 Corsi rate in the NHL, according to Natural Stat Trick. That means it gives up a lotmore chances than it takes.
That might sound concerning, but the Leafs allow the 12th-fewest high-danger chances per 60, meaning most shots on net are low-quality and coming from the outside or at the point.
Enter Jake Sanderson, who is having a banner season.
The 22-year-old defenceman leads the team in time on ice (24:26), is third in points (57), and second in shots (195).
Sanderson has logged at least two shots in 10 straight games, clearing this line seven times.
Maple Leafs 60-minute moneyline (+100): An Ullmark implosion would go a long way in cashing this wager, but I can see the Maple Leafs winning this game in regulation even if he plays well.
For a good as Ullmark has played, Anthony Stolarz has been better.
8-0 record since March 20 (three shutouts)
1.40 GAA
.950 SV%
The Maple Leafs won six of those games in regulation and four by multiple goals. Ottawa didn’t have a single player play at a 35-goal pace this season, and I struggle to see how it will find ways to score against a netminder this hot.
And for those worried about Toronto scoring in the playoffs, don’t be.
The Leafs ranked seventh in goals per game (3.25) this season while the Sens ranked 21st (2.90). Something’s got to give, and I say it starts on Sunday.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks made at 8:35 a.m. ET 04/19/2025.
The Battle of Ontario is renewed on Sunday when the Toronto Maple Leafs host the Ottawa Senators.
The pregame narrative: Ottawa has had Toronto’s number this season, but I think the Maple Leafs win Game 1 in regulation. William Nylander has elevated to an elite goalscorer this season, and I expect him to score.
Check out my Senators vs. Maple Leafs prop picks for Game 1 of the opening round.
Toronto’s playoff shortcomings are tied to offensive ineptitude — the team has scored two or fewer goals in 13 of its last 14 postseason games — but Nylander has done his part.
In the last two seasons, he has seven goals and 13 points in 15 playoff games.
I expect the Maple Leafs’ offence to perform better as a whole this time around, and for Nylander to lead the charge.
Shutting down the Matthew Knies-Auston Matthews-Mitch Marner line will be priority No. 1 for the Senators. In theory, that should leave more opportunities for Nylander to feast.
And that’s what he’s done all season.
The Swede’s 45 goals were second only to Leon Draisaitl, and 33 of those came at even-strength.
Ottawa’s Linus Ullmark has been great down the stretch, but I seriously question his ability in the playoffs. The netminder has a 3.59 GAA and .859 SV% in 10 playoff appearances (nine starts).
Key stat: Nylander’s 125 goals over the last three seasons rank seventh in the NHL.
Quick picks
Sanderson over 2.5 shots on goal (+140): Toronto has the fourth-worst 5v5 Corsi rate in the NHL, according to Natural Stat Trick. That means it gives up a lotmore chances than it takes.
That might sound concerning, but the Leafs allow the 12th-fewest high-danger chances per 60, meaning most shots on net are low-quality and coming from the outside or at the point.
Enter Jake Sanderson, who is having a banner season.
The 22-year-old defenceman leads the team in time on ice (24:26), is third in points (57), and second in shots (195).
Sanderson has logged at least two shots in 10 straight games, clearing this line seven times.
Maple Leafs 60-minute moneyline (+107): An Ullmark implosion would go a long way in cashing this wager, but I can see the Maple Leafs winning this game in regulation even if he plays well.
For a good as Ullmark has played, Anthony Stolarz has been better.
8-0 record since March 20 (three shutouts)
1.40 GAA
.950 SV%
The Maple Leafs won six of those games in regulation and four by multiple goals. Ottawa didn’t have a single player play at a 35-goal pace this season, and I struggle to see how it will find ways to score against a netminder this hot.
And for those worried about Toronto scoring in the playoffs, don’t be.
The Leafs ranked seventh in goals per game (3.25) this season while the Sens ranked 21st (2.90). Something’s got to give, and I say it starts on Sunday.
Maple Leafs vs. Senators prop picks made at 3:02 p.m. ET 04/18/2025.
The Toronto Blue Jays and Seattle Mariners begin a three-game set at Rogers Centre on Friday.
The pregame narrative:Bowden Francis gets the ball for Toronto, and I’m fading his alt strikeout total against the red-hot Mariners. Also, bet on Vladimir Guerrero Jr. to hit for power against Seattle righty Bryan Woo.
Check out my +350 SGP Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions for April 18.
Mariners +2.5 (-500): Toronto has enjoyed a good but not great start to the season, posting an 11-8 record ahead of its 20th game.
That said, I feel perfectly safe backing the Mariners to cover this teased-up spread.
Seattle has won six of its last seven games while averaging 6.3 runs.
Toronto has only covered a -2.5 spread in five of 19 games (three times in nine games at home).
Francis was a revelation for the Blue Jays down the stretch last year, but he’s failed to reproduce that magic through three starts.
The righty has a 3.71 ERA, but his 12th-percentile xERA (6.01) suggests he’s been a bit lucky. Francis also owns a 21st-percentile xBA (.282) and 12th-percentile hard-hit rate (52.2%). I don’t trust him to keep Seattle’s red-hot bats at bay.
Woo, meanwhile, has posted a solid 2.83 ERA with a nearly identical 2.85 xERA. The Mariners have covered a +2.5 spread in nine of his last 10 starts dating back to 2024.
MLB SGP legs
Francis under 5.5 strikeouts (-225): Francis has a knack for pitching deep into ballgames, and that will naturally help him accumulate strikeouts.
But the righty has never been an elite swing-and-miss arm:
Francis relies on producing soft contact to succeed, and he hasn’t been getting that this year. With the way Seattle is hitting the ball, I can anticipate a short outing on the horizon.
And if Francis isn’t pitching six-plus innings, I doubt he’s going to clear this total.
Guerrero over 1.5 bases (+123): Adding Guerrero to this wager skyrockets our SGP’s value from -150 to +325. Not bad, right?
Vladdy is “slumping” to start the season, but he’s still hitting .292 and giving quality at-bats. The problem has been a lack of power, though I’m hoping Guerrero’s first home run on Wednesday will open the floodgates.
And the slugger’s 95th-percentile xBA (.334) and 82nd-percentile xSLG (.535) indicate he should be performing better, anyway.
We’re talking about a guy who had the sixth-most total bases in MLB last year. Guerrero should be an auto-play at this price, even against a pitcher like Woo.
Mariners vs. Blue Jays predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET on 04/18/2025.
The Battle of Ontario is back, and the stakes are as high as possible.
The latest: The Atlantic Division-winning Toronto Maple Leafs have home ice against the Ottawa Senators, who are in the playoffs for the first time in the Brady Tkachuk era. Will the Maple Leafs capitalize as favourites, or can the Senators be the latest team to send them packing?
Check out our Senators vs. Maple Leafs NHL playoff betting preview and odds for the series.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs playoff preview
This rivalry was a staple in the early 2000s, when the Maple Leafs and Senators met four times in the Stanley Cup playoffs.
Toronto won each matchup, but a lot has changed since then.
This current iteration of the Maple Leafs knows nothing but playoff heartbreak, with just one series win in the Core Four era.
In fact, Toronto has just one series win since it last beat Ottawa in 2004 … yikes.
The Senators have finally made the dance after a near-decade of disappointments, and now they have a chance to twist the knife against their most bitter rival.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs playoff preview: Series markets
It shouldn’t be a surprise that Toronto is favoured, even with its horrible postseason track record.
The Maple Leafs entered play on April 17 with 106 points (51-26-4), good for second place in the Eastern Conference and fourth in the league.
Ottawa, meanwhile, sits at 95 points (44-30-7) in the East’s first wild-card spot. And Toronto has the upper hand in nearly every statistical category:
Goals per game
GAA
PP%
PK%
Toronto
3.25 (seventh)
2.79 (10th)
25.0 (seventh)
78.1 (17th)
Ottawa
2.90 (21st)
2.80 (11th)
23.4 (13th)
77.9 (19th)
The Leafs are far more experienced, have better game-breakers (more on that later), and will be on home ice. All signs seem to be pointing toward a deep playoff run. But are we really going to step on that rake again?
Here are some additional markets if picking an outright winner didn’t catch your eye:
Click linked odds below to add selection to your betslip. NHL odds as of 4:30 p.m. ET on 04/17/2025.
A one-sided Battle of Ontario
Ottawa has had Toronto’s number lately, winning five straight games against its rival, all of which came in regulation.
The Maple Leafs haven’t been blown out, but they also haven’t cracked the Senators’ defence, scoring just three goals in three games against them this season.
The Senators stay scorching with a huge 4-2 win in Toronto to sweep the Battle of Ontario 🔥 pic.twitter.com/TXvHfjYRk5
That should scare Maple Leafs fans, considering the team has scored two or fewer goals in 13 of its last 14 playoff games.
You could argue this is a massive problem, or you could say Toronto is due to break out of that rut. After all, the Leafs averaged the seventh-most goals per game this season.
I wouldn’t expect this series to be a barn-burner, though.
On a 60-minute basis, the Senators rank 12th in 5-on-5 high-danger goals against (1.34) while the Maple Leafs rank seventh (1.27), according to Natural Stat Trick.
Both teams will have to get down and dirty to score some goals.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs preview: Players to watch
This series isn’t lacking starpower. Auston Matthews, Brady Tkachuk, Mitch Marner, William Nylander, Tim Stuzle, John Tavares … both teams have some studs.
But in my mind, Toronto has a clear edge. And it better, considering the Core Four eat up 53% of the Maple Leafs’ salary cap.
Marner just cracked 100 points for the first time, Nylander’s 45 goals are the second-most in the league, and Tavares is steadily producing (38 goals, 74 points) in the last year of his contract.
MITCH MARNER BECOMES THE FOURTH PLAYER IN MAPLE LEAFS HISTORY TO RECORD A 100-POINT SEASON 👏 pic.twitter.com/HfAg6eFCUV
Even Matthews, who played just 66 games in an injury-riddled “down year,” has 77 points — more than any Senator.
Stutzle leads the way for Ottawa with 76 points. No Senator hit the 30-goal mark this year, and that has to be a concern.
Tkachuk (29 goals) would have if he played more than 71 games, to be fair, and he brings a different kind of energy that will be hard for Toronto to match.
I’m curious to see how Matthew Knies factors into this matchup, as the third-year forward isn’t afraid to mix things up and play physically.
Who has the goaltending edge?
In my opinion, goaltending will be the X-factor and decide this series (bold proclamation, I know).
Toronto has been tight-lipped about its plans, but Anthony Stolarz should start every game, as long as he’s healthy and performing.
With a 2.14 GAA (third in NHL) and .926 SV% (first), that seems like a no-brainer. Stolarz also posted otherworldly numbers down the stretch to help Toronto clinch the division:
8-0 record since March 20
1.40 GAA
.950 SV%
3 shutouts
If he can stay that hot, the Leafs could win this series in five or fewer. But Stolarz has never played in the playoffs and just logged a career-high 34 starts, so it will be interesting to see how he responds to the pressure and a near-bi-nightly cadence.
Then you have Ottawa’s Linus Ulmark, who rebounded from a tough start and went on a similar heater to close out the season:
6-1 record since March 22
2.00 GAA
.928 SV%
One shutout
His season-long numbers aren’t anywhere near as impressive as Stolarz’s, though, and the Swede has some serious playoff demons (nine starts, 3.58 GAA, .887 SV%).
Senators vs. Maple Leafs: Series prediction
My pick: Maple Leafs -1.5 series handicap (+105)
My prediction has a lot to do with the goalies.
Ullmark’s playoff history is concerning, to say the least, and I am bullish on Stolarz carrying his play into the postseason.
Toronto’s netminder has been fantastic all year. In addition to owning the best SV% and third-best GAA, he’s saved the fourth-most goals above expected (25.8), according to Money Puck.
He also had this to say about the series: “It’s gonna be a bloodbath. Gonna be a little bit of war. So, we’ll be ready.”
The Maple Leafs have added a good amount of “snot”, as Brad Treliving likes to put it, to their lineup.
Brandon Tanev, Brandon Carlo and Oliver Ekman-Larsson bring size and physicality to a completely re-worked defensive corps, which has clogged the middle of the ice and limited high-danger chances.
But in the end, it will come down to who can score more, and I trust Toronto’s big guns even with their recent shortcomings.
Matthews, Nylander and Marner are all in their primes, and John Tavares has turned back the clock with a 38-goal season. Matthew Knies has become a legit game-breaker in his third season.
Ottawa doesn’t have anyone that moves the needle like that, and I can’t picture the Sens out-scoring the Leafs by committee against Stolarz.
Senators vs. Maple Leafs predictions made at 3:00 p.m. on 04/17/2025.
The Western Conference’s final playoff spot will be filled on Friday when the Memphis Grizzlies host the Dallas Mavericks in the play-in tournament.
The pregame narrative: Memphis has been the much better — and healthier — team this season, and I expect it to advance. Prop bets on Klay Thompson and Zach Edey round out this +320 wager.
Check out my Mavericks vs. Grizzlies play-in SGP predictions for April 18.
Grizzlies -3.5 (-195): Both teams have been embattled in recent months, with Dallas trading away Luka Doncic and Memphis firing head coach Taylor Jenkins.
I don’t expect either team to put up much of a fight against the Oklahoma City Thunder, but Memphis has what it takes to get there.
The Grizzlies (48-34) had nine more wins than the Mavs (39-43) this season and are on home court, where they went 26-15.
That has to be worth something, right? Well, it’s actually worth seven points — the spread as of Thursday afternoon — and I’ll happily trim a few off that number to back Memphis.
Dallas went 2-5 down the stretch and is without all-star guard Kyrie Irving (torn ACL).
Memphis has an Anthony Davis-stopper in Jaren Jackson Jr., and I can’t really picture anyone else on the Mavericks taking over this game.
NBA SGP legs
Edey 12+ rebounds (-134): It’s hard to ignore what Edey is doing, and not just because he sticks out like a sore thumb at 7-foot-4, 305 pounds.
The Canadian has been on a tear since re-entering the starting lineup on March 29:
13.7 rebounds/game
11+ rebounds in 7 of 9 games
13+ rebounds in 6 of 9 games
Edey has logged 16-plus rebounds in four of his last five games, including a 17-rebound performance against the Golden State Warriors on Tuesday.
Golden State is undersized, so it’s reasonable to be skeptical that Edey will repeat against the Davis-led Mavs.
But Edey had 16 rebounds against Nikola Jokic and Co. on April 11 and 21 against the Detroit Pistons (fifth in rebounding rate this season) on April 5.
Thompson 3+ threes (-175): Thompson was playing point for the Mavericks in Wednesday’s play-in game against the Sacramento Kings, and he lit it up.
23 points
8-of-11 shooting
5-of-7 from 3-point range
The veteran guard isn’t what he used to be, but he still shot 39.1% from deep this season, clearing this line in 43 of 72 games (59.7%).
Also, the Grizzlies have allowed the eighth-most 3s to point guards and the fifth-most 3s to shooting guards over the last 30 days, according to Fantasy Pros.
Mavericks vs. Grizzlies predictions made at 12:00 p.m. ET 04/17/2025.
I’ve got two bets for this weekend’s Premier League action.
The pregame narrative: Nottingham Forest is in a dog fight for Champions League qualification, and I expect it to pick up three points against Tottenham. Elsewhere, look for Mo Salah to continue producing at a historic rate.
Check out the best Premier League predictions for Matchday 33.
I’m a little surprised you can get Salah to score at this price, considering he’s having one of the greatest seasons of all time.
The Egyptian striker has scored 27 goals in 32 games for Liverpool while adding 18 assists. And these underlying metrics provided by FotMob are pretty good, too:
1st in expected goals (22.7)
1st in expected goals on target (27.2)
1st in big chances (23)
3rd in expected goals per 90 (0.72)
On Sunday, Salah and the Reds take on a Leicester City side bound for relegation. The Foxes are 4-6-22 and have given up the second-most goals (72) in the Premier League.
A win would all but guarantee Liverpool the league, and I expect Salah to leave no doubt.
Key stat: Salah scored a goal on five shot attempts against Leicester earlier this season.
Quick pick
Nottingham to win (+180) Nottingham fans are white knuckling the steering wheel down the stretch. The Trees sit fourth in the Premiership with 57 points, two ahead of Manchester City and three ahead of Chelsea and Aston Villa.
With five Champions League spots allocated to English clubs this season, picking up points on Monday is a must.
Spurs sit a miserable 15th in the table and have lost four of their last six games. That includes a recent 4-2 defeat to Wolverhampton at the Molineux.
Agne Postecoglou’s words don’t seem to be registering anymore, and Tottenham will be focused on Thursday’s Europa League quarterfinal match against Eintracht Frankfurt.
Nottingham sports an 8-6-2 away record this season and beat Tottenham 1-0 in the reverse fixture back on December 26.
Premier League predictions made at 9:57 p.m. on 04/17/2025.
